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  • #1,741
  • Nov 22, 2013 11:57am Nov 22, 2013 11:57am
Quoting pipple
Fool or Cecil.....You guys have an idea of what I do, in your opinion, if you had to pick 5 or so stocks with a lot of strikes, real nice liquidity, etc etc that would be good for a write and roll strategy like mine.....what ones would you think of first??? I am leaning towards concentrating on a handful of stocks like I do with commodities, and getting really familiar with them....and going from there. Figured you guys would know the short answer to this. I have a few in mind, but wanted to get your opinions thx
look for best volume, best strike distribution. You can find all the likely candidates by looking at the Yahoo Finance Options Center daily stats on the options trades - check the high volume entries...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,742
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:56pm Nov 22, 2013 2:56pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} TSLA might make it, tempted to buy em back here for a $0.40 profit; TGT went to my put strike, but too slow in getting there - looking to get out of the strangle with a <$0.15 loss
TSLA looking like it will close well above my 11/22 short $115 puts. Spread for $0.20 debit is worth ~$1.80, $100 Dec 21 long puts are intact, would like to see some more profit taking next week before I sell.

TGT $0.42 debit strangle I sold for $0.24, came to my $63.50 strike but too slow, decay won out...

Good weekend all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,743
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:05pm Nov 22, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting pipple
Fool or Cecil.....You guys have an idea of what I do, in your opinion, if you had to pick 5 or so stocks with a lot of strikes, real nice liquidity, etc etc that would be good for a write and roll strategy like mine.....what ones would you think of first??? I am leaning towards concentrating on a handful of stocks like I do with commodities, and getting really familiar with them....and going from there. Figured you guys would know the short answer to this. I have a few in mind, but wanted to get your opinions thx
for writing options I would go with index related ETF's rather than stock specifics plus a couple of metal related. GDX ,FCX,SPY, IWM, QQQ and VXX, all have plenty of volume , close strikes and very liquid
  • #1,744
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:11pm Nov 22, 2013 5:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} TSLA looking like it will close well above my 11/22 short $115 puts. Spread for $0.20 debit is worth ~$1.80, $100 Dec 21 long puts are intact, would like to see some more profit taking next week before I sell.
TSLA is giving back what he took from me early in the year, when I was dumber. I can see far otm puts that are worth a write for Dec 22: $80p go for $0.42....TSLA closed the week @ $121.28
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,745
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:42pm Nov 22, 2013 5:42pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} for writing options I would go with index related ETF's rather than stock specifics plus a couple of metal related. GDX ,FCX,SPY, IWM, QQQ and VXX, all have plenty of volume , close strikes and very liquid
SPY has huge liquidity - over 100MM shares traded per day on avg, usually see open interest >200,000 contracts thru the chains. SPY is head n shoulders above all the rest. If you need to get your freak on with 4-figure blocks that is the first place to look.

Some of the individual stocks will have better options volume/liquidity than sector etf's - general rule of thumb is that the higher the share volume traded, the higher the options contract volume traded will be. See MSFT, FB, etc etc
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,746
  • Edited Nov 23, 2013 8:25am Nov 22, 2013 11:39pm | Edited Nov 23, 2013 8:25am
Earnings mostly out, but still a few that catch my eye: for next week, I see HPQ, TIVO, RENN, CBRL, DSW.

For following week of 12/2: ARO...slim pickins...

....of the above, HPQ is a must, last two releases saw 50mm+ shares traded the day, with $3+ moves...

(no weeklies for HPQ, and $1.00 strike spread. but I might consider a spread or a strangle for Jan expiry anyway, enter before earnings...)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-22_hpq.png Size: 58 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,747
  • Edited 12:27am Nov 23, 2013 12:16am | Edited 12:27am
~$3 stock RENN I could see making a 40%+ move on earnings day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-22_renren.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,748
  • Nov 23, 2013 12:33am Nov 23, 2013 12:33am
I stumbled upon this guy's blog today....not bad

http://smoothprofit.blogspot.com/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,749
  • Edited 7:46am Nov 23, 2013 6:53am | Edited 7:46am
Quoting The Fool
Earnings mostly out, but still a few that catch my eye: for next week, I see HPQ, TIVO, RENN, CBRL, DSW....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1832...e?source=yahoo

RENN worth a punt?

look at long strangle April $4.50c/Jan $2.50p @ $0.25/$0.10 net debit $0.35+ for an easy winner. Looks like it will peter out to pink sheet territory or fly to the moon...

(problem with above is shares too cheap, could go past the put strike with plenty of time and the best you might do is break even on the strangle. But the calls would pay 5x + if it went up a few bucks in the next 2-3 months...)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,750
  • Edited 7:31am Nov 23, 2013 7:17am | Edited 7:31am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I still think the room to move for crude is mostly to the downside, but a bad weather stretch could catch tight short positions too. Me looking for easier trades...
eyes on continuing talks with Iran. I expect a deal of some kind - they will bend on nuke issues and the West will bend on sanctions, with Iranian oil reintroduction part of the mix, will sink Brent and drag down WTI...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,751
  • Nov 23, 2013 8:03am Nov 23, 2013 8:03am
Quoting Cecil Gee
opened another trade on Facebook, long $46 puts for 15c / $15 per contract Facebook trading at $46.94 Facebook, Inc. (FB) -NasdaqGS 46.94 {image} 0.51(1.10%) 15:42 - Nasdaq Real Time Price FB Nov 2013 46.000 put (FB131122P00046000) -OPR 0.15 {image} 0.25(62.50%) 15:19
the above expired worthless on me as I was away from my computer yesterday. I saw the open above $47 but I just didn't have the time to roll up to long $46.50 put as I had previous arrangements to honour so I just left the trade , I was long the $46 put, even though FB opened above $47.11 and the fell to a low of $45.96 there wasn't enough follow through as the nasdaq trended up again but my bias was right on direction on facebook'

Below is the $46.50 long put which is the one I missed, check the open of 7c or $7 per contract abd the High of 56c or $56 per contract.

Pipple this why i just love trading the short term weekly options. I only long calls or puts


Facebook, Inc. Nov 22 2013 46.50 Put(@FB 131122P00046500)http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools...se&chpcon=true



0.28

Net-

Day High0.53

Day Low0.06

Volume7973

Prev Close0.28

Open0.07

Open Interest0
Tick

BidN/A

AskN/A

Bid Size0

Ask Size0

Contract High2.27

Contract Low0.06
  • #1,752
  • Nov 23, 2013 8:07am Nov 23, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Pipple this why i just love trading the short term weekly options. I only long calls or puts
mornin CG, how are you feeling about doing the strangles on the weeklies?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,753
  • Nov 23, 2013 2:26pm Nov 23, 2013 2:26pm
TLT/TBT
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,754
  • Nov 23, 2013 2:53pm Nov 23, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} mornin CG, how are you feeling about doing the strangles on the weeklies?
never done them because I'm not comfortable about that strategy but one thing i will tell you that most so called experts teachers overlook or don't fully understand is with weeklys you have to open your strangle positions on a Thursday as that's the day the new weekly options are issued, you get the most premium and if your wrong you have time to adapt before the new week starts on the Monday. After Monday time decay accelerates too fast.

TLT/VXX are the best two
  • #1,755
  • Nov 23, 2013 3:11pm Nov 23, 2013 3:11pm
Just been researching AAPL, I think it due some kid of move that could be $20 each way of it current price of $519. The IV and historical volatility is fairly low making it options prices quite attractive on the weekly

$525 call closed at $1.90 on Friday and the $5.15 put closed at $2.10, if on Monday I could buy the strangle for the pair for around $3.10 then I'm buying them. so i would be long the strangle position.


AAPL Nov 2013 525.000 call (AAPL131129C00525000)
-OPR

1.90 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.99(34.26%) 22 Nov 20:59

AAPL Nov 2013 515.000 put (AAPL131129P00515000)
-OPR

2.10 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.18(7.89%) 22 Nov 20:59
  • #1,756
  • Nov 23, 2013 3:39pm Nov 23, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} never done them because I'm not comfortable about that strategy but one thing i will tell you that most so called experts teachers overlook or don't fully understand is with weeklys you have to open your strangle positions on a Thursday as that's the day the new weekly options are issued, you get the most premium and if your wrong you have time to adapt before the new week starts on the Monday. After Monday time decay accelerates too fast. TLT/VXX are the best two
Yes that's a good point. Look for the finer strike divisions - $0.50 - another one to keep in mind. Did you look at HPQ for next week? I can't get very excited about it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,757
  • Nov 23, 2013 8:41pm Nov 23, 2013 8:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} eyes on continuing talks with Iran. I expect a deal of some kind - they will bend on nuke issues and the West will bend on sanctions, with Iranian oil reintroduction part of the mix, will sink Brent and drag down WTI...
http://news.yahoo.com/iran-nuclear-d...021222943.html

I would expect that part of the deal has been lifting restrictions on Iranian oil sales to the west. If that's true there will be a move down in crude oil prices, especially Brent, and corresponding USD strength. Will be watching crude futures starting Asian Monday.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,758
  • Nov 24, 2013 12:16am Nov 24, 2013 12:16am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://news.yahoo.com/iran-nuclear-d...021222943.html I would expect that part of the deal has been lifting restrictions on Iranian oil sales to the west. If that's true there will be a move down in crude oil prices, especially Brent, and corresponding USD strength. Will be watching crude futures starting Asian Monday.
I think this may be the final thing this crude market needs to justify moving it down more and settling it into a lower range. I still don't trust it, and would not be surprised if a bounce up then down happens. Regardless, I am positioned with 2 calls for every 1 put (roughly) because I was expecting this as well. Just didn't know when. I have a few landmen oil clients who keep telling me they are pulling the stuff out of the ground at alarming rates.....and they expect the 80s for WTI in no time.....and for the spread between Brent and WTI to tighten. If the market responds to this the way we think it will.....I am going to have to do some math when the bid/asks get real on Monday morning and see what makes more sense....holding on or adjusting. There may be more money in further months. I can tell you this, it may be time for me to buy back all the puts at a profit in a pre-emptive roll. That would be directionally trading to an extent.....but hell hath no fury like a fundamental commodity move, and I wont fight it. This could be a very good thing, I am positioned for it, and hopefully I can reposition into it even more.
the issue really comes down to how greedy I get. Never works out much when you try to be a hero.
I still don't think the bottom is gonna fall out.....but I definitely expect lower lows
  • #1,759
  • Nov 24, 2013 12:20am Nov 24, 2013 12:20am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} mornin CG, how are you feeling about doing the strangles on the weeklies?
I would agree with that not being the best idea......part of the reason I have had good results from my strategy is I have time to put Band-Aids on boo-boos...if you will.
Weeklies probably aren't as forgiving to an initial fast moving market as when I initiate a strangle in crude with 20 trading days left.
I have found certain time periods with different commodities when it is beneficial to initiate the strangles.....I think with enough watching we could find them with certain stocks, or ETFs like Cecil said. liquid ones. There has to be a correlation....there is definitely a sweet spot for what I do with commodities to work with stocks/ETFs, just haven't found it yet.
  • #1,760
  • Nov 24, 2013 1:23am Nov 24, 2013 1:23am
Quoting pipple
{quote} I still don't think the bottom is gonna fall out.....but I definitely expect lower lows
I have not dug into the details of the deal yet. I was always just assuming it would include some opening of the oil pipe out of Iran. Could be wrong. I was kinda waiting til Sunday morning to read the news, which is what I usually do Sunday mornings...to find out. I'm not in any crude positions, but have been watching USO with an eye to short it via puts if this came through. It'll all be clear pretty soon I guess...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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