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High Probability Trade Setups

  • #141
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:45am Nov 21, 2013 10:45am
Well that's 4/4 trades (I think) that's gone at least 20pips in favour with about a 1:1 RR. It's not the 2:1 I was aiming for yet but still it shows that waiting for the right trades can be profitable. (just trying to skool myself patience here )

Will keep searching though I don't favour these types of trades on Fridays unless very obvious.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #142
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:27am Nov 22, 2013 2:27am
EURUSD at 1.3490 and fibo 50% retracement of Wednesday’s drop. We can also see triple top on M30 chart. 1.3491-95 seems like the best place to open short term short position, but also to make a first entry on longer term swing trade. If 1.3500 is defeated start looking about longs.
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Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #143
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:35am Nov 22, 2013 5:35am
Ready & waiting.
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  • #144
  • Nov 22, 2013 10:08am Nov 22, 2013 10:08am
Just wanted to say thanks for starting this thread. I am caught up reading the previous posts and will be following with interest.
  • #145
  • Nov 22, 2013 10:26am Nov 22, 2013 10:26am
Quoting LJay
Just wanted to say thanks for starting this thread. I am caught up reading the previous posts and will be following with interest.
Your welcome mate. Will be back on the prowl Monday.
Don't be afraid to ask questions or to contribute.


Just thought I'd add here- I actually don't mind trading Mondays contrary to a lot of traders. After Friday night and Monday morning (trading hours) there is often a lot of consolidation that can be taken advantage of when bo's for direction occur.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #146
  • Edited 12:14am Nov 24, 2013 12:03am | Edited 12:14am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Aud/Nzd looks to be heading south from the looks of friday's candle closing

down with a bounce off of 7/28 weekly low it'll be interesting to see which

side of the market will price open up on....Will it be on top of 7/28 low or

on the bottom of it? Can't wait to gauge this one!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #147
  • Nov 24, 2013 12:10am Nov 24, 2013 12:10am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Aud/Cad same thing... the trend is looking to return to sell mode inviting those

who know how to pyramid to start doing some heavy grid type trading ........

For those who have not started to do so already things maybe starting to heat up!!
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One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #148
  • Nov 24, 2013 12:00pm Nov 24, 2013 12:00pm
Short GBP/USD 1.63316.
Exit if weekly candle closes above.
Target: 1.153 (yes you read that correctly)

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  • #149
  • Edited 9:46pm Nov 24, 2013 9:31pm | Edited 9:46pm
Quoting shellsnail
Short GBP/USD 1.63316. Exit if weekly candle closes above. Target: 1.153 (yes you read that correctly)
Did you mean 1.62316? I am waiting for GU daily BO of daily TL from 1.10.13 (currently 1.6233).


Edit: same TL can be started from 14.8.11
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #150
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:34pm Nov 24, 2013 9:34pm
Quoting shellsnail
Short GBP/USD 1.63316. Exit if weekly candle closes above. Target: 1.153 (yes you read that correctly)
Is this a High probability set up?
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #151
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:46pm Nov 24, 2013 9:46pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Is this a High probability set up?
well, it's the same set-up I will trade if it appears on a 15 minute chart, so yes it's high probability if that's what you are asking. ofcourse it's not a set and forget trade, you have to manage it once u are in. If market only gives you 300 pips, then take 300
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  • #152
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:49pm Nov 24, 2013 9:49pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Did you mean 1.62316? I am waiting for GU daily BO of daily TL from 1.10.13 (currently 1.6233). Edit: same TL can be started from 14.8.11
no I meant what i wrote - it's either a bull trap or it's a breakout. either way if you short there, it's a high RR trade. Ofcourse my mantra is to trade with the trend, so unless it's a sudden news spike of 100 pips I probably would not enter with limit order, will wait for reaction first and then take the retrace on 5minute chart. (so I have 5 minute chart trend on my side at least)
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  • #153
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:50pm Nov 24, 2013 9:50pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} well, it's the same set-up I will trade if it appears on a 15 minute chart, so yes it's high probability if that's what you are asking. ofcourse it's not a set and forget trade, you have to manage it once u are in.

Yah looks like a good trade... reversal or bo. Not sure about the target tho

GL.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #154
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:52pm Nov 24, 2013 9:52pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Yah looks like a good trade... reversal or bo. Not sure about the target tho GL.
Target is based on monthly chart triangle playing out to the downside.
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  • #155
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:57pm Nov 24, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Target is based on triangle playing out to the downside.

Ah ok. I understand. Not totally unfathomable with worlds economies atm I spose.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #156
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:58pm Nov 24, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Ah ok. I understand. Not totally unfathomable with worlds economies atm I spose.
Yeah if you compare GU with EU after the crisis. Euro has recovered much of its value immediately after the drop, but GBP on the other hand is dead in the water... Something about its fundamentals must be holding it back... If the large players are not holding it, then weak longs can easily be forced out by institutions or big boys.. So triangle breaking down is still not impossible as long as the previous high holds.
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  • #157
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:06pm Nov 24, 2013 10:06pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Yeah if you compare GU with EU after the crisis. Euro has recovered much of its value immediately after the drop, but GBP on the other hand is dead in the water... Something about its fundamentals must be holding it back...
True but consolidation can be good for direction (as long as it's on upside for GU) rather than sharp whipsaw movements.
EU montly range is decreasing too, there should be strong bo one way or another in coming months imo.

I am talking from a TA point of view... fundies not my strong point. (starting to work on it though )
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #158
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:10pm Nov 24, 2013 10:10pm
No need to "think" so much.
Just adopt a method.
??
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When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #159
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:10pm Nov 24, 2013 10:10pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
No need to "think" so much. Just adopt a method. ?? {image}
each to his own.
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  • #160
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:12pm Nov 24, 2013 10:12pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
No need to "think" so much. Just adopt a method. ?? {image}
before anyone gets the wrong idea, I am still taking buy trades on GBP/USD if it pulls back on 4H because ofcourse it's in an uptrend so the right thing to do is BUY until otherwise.

but I don't have to worry much about that because EA will do it for me..
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