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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #12,041
  • Nov 22, 2013 3:41pm Nov 22, 2013 3:41pm
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  • #12,042
  • Nov 22, 2013 4:34pm Nov 22, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} but on Monday those R levels will be higher. EDIT; Oh those ARE monday's levels./ Sorry.

you might still be right and they will be even higher ;P

good weekend. over and out
  • #12,043
  • Nov 22, 2013 4:35pm Nov 22, 2013 4:35pm
Quoting Schickeria
Schicker is drinking
in der horizontale
  • #12,044
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:03pm Nov 22, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting 2046
{quote} in der horizontale
Yes WE can!

Markers mark is á one
  • #12,045
  • Edited Nov 23, 2013 8:21am Nov 22, 2013 5:08pm | Edited Nov 23, 2013 8:21am
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  • #12,046
  • Edited Nov 23, 2013 8:21am Nov 22, 2013 5:14pm | Edited Nov 23, 2013 8:21am
Quoting Schickeria
What i dont Need is Astronaut ( prcim mu Mamu ) siptaru and godims posts! mamu im jebem svedsku!bolje muslimansku. Je si li cuo smece jedno muslimansko
juhu
  • #12,047
  • Nov 23, 2013 4:08am Nov 23, 2013 4:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
COTs look quite flat as of last Tuesday. {image} {image}

You can read much more out of it: the look at only the net-position is quiet worthless.

Much more interesting is the look at the COT Index and/or the % Comm long (all)

I use them both.


Everytime you use those COT data, it is important to not look at the pure values, but use the calculations, where the current values are set into perspective with past data. Only then we can start to use COT data in any meaningful way.

I would recommend the lecture of Tom Williams book: Master the markets


now look at picture below:

the COT Index (past 26 days) shows, that Commercials reduced (relatively) their short position and are now more or less flat.

They reduced their short position successively when price went down the last days (and over the period when price reversed back up).



Now we have the problem, that we do not know, what they will do further. Normally good chances will arrive, when COT Index is either near 0 or near 100


When we look at the 13 periods COT index, we see, that the Comms are at 100%. This may be a hint, that price may climb up further (or did it already, since the COT data are from Tuesday)
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  • #12,048
  • Nov 23, 2013 5:16am Nov 23, 2013 5:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well it seems to be stalling here so it might be looking good for shorts. Let's see if we get a weekend retail gap.
I'm also keeping in mind, that pound will go above 1.6450 eventually and maybe even reach 1.7x. One thing I'm not comfortable with is its recent retracement point at 5850's which seems fell short of a few pips from where it supposed to dive to and bounce from... Maybe, deeper retracement is sheduled AFTER HH in weekly charts..
So, if its really bullish and its aiming for 1.64xx, than 6200 and 612x's will be support'ish areas from where continuation should happen..

Right now it points to 6290's, where bearish correction should start - how deep or how minor it will be - it should reveal its further intentions..
69
  • #12,049
  • Nov 23, 2013 9:44am Nov 23, 2013 9:44am
G/U
I have a sell against... 6265..
risk 45pips.
because the 5900 breakdown..
  • #12,050
  • Nov 24, 2013 3:25am Nov 24, 2013 3:25am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Do you have something in the 3577 area?
1.3625 min.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post7107032 (my elliott view atm)
  • #12,051
  • Nov 24, 2013 3:30am Nov 24, 2013 3:30am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} 1.3625 min. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post7107032 (my elliott view atm)
Exactly my thinking... B is not yet complete.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,052
  • Nov 24, 2013 3:31am Nov 24, 2013 3:31am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} You can read much more out of it: the look at only the net-position is quiet worthless. Much more interesting is the look at the COT Index and/or the % Comm long (all) I use them both. Everytime you use those COT data, it is important to not look at the pure values, but use the calculations, where the current values are set into perspective with past data. Only then we can start to use COT data in any meaningful way. I would recommend the lecture of Tom Williams book: Master the markets now look at picture below: the COT Index (past 26 days)...
Yes you are correct. Mine was just a simplistic view. Index draws a more clear picture.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,053
  • Nov 24, 2013 3:32am Nov 24, 2013 3:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Exactly my thinking... B is not yet complete.
Pip

You are restless like me, I see you a bit everywhere. Are you stalking me ?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #12,054
  • Nov 24, 2013 3:43am Nov 24, 2013 3:43am
I think she is going at least another 180 pips up before a stall or retracement…..
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #12,055
  • Nov 24, 2013 4:06am Nov 24, 2013 4:06am
Quoting milam
{quote} Pip You are restless like me, I see you a bit everywhere. Are you stalking me ?
Milam... If you're the only action on my subscribers list, who else should I stalk?

Yes I am a bit restless... waiting for my wife to get ready is like waiting for paint to dry... so I wander around FF looking for juicy posts.

Ohh. I think she is ready now. Later
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,056
  • Nov 24, 2013 4:12am Nov 24, 2013 4:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Milam... If you're the only action on my subscribers list, who else should I stalk? Yes I am a bit restless... waiting for my wife to get ready is like waiting for paint to dry... so I wander around FF looking for juicy posts. Ohh. I think she is ready now. Later
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #12,057
  • Nov 24, 2013 5:54am Nov 24, 2013 5:54am
My two cents....

This could do a short term reverse at 1.3580 down to either 1.3489 or 1.3428 then go up to 1.3672 (see daily chart) before going down to 1.3184 or 1.3060s (weekly). Hourly and 4 hr TF are oversold on RSI and CCI. This is inline with Rebtancor's analysis posted early this week but will have to wait and see by the end of next week. I have pending orders to sell at 3580 with a tight stop at 3610 and will cover at 3489-3428 since PA is expected to be volatile. If 3585 is breached first, it could reverse at 3630. All levels based on MM lines and a narrow rising wedge.
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Lost....
  • #12,058
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:59am Nov 24, 2013 11:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Strange pattern on US Dollar. It managed to hold above daily pivot all day and kind of looks like expanding triangle. What do you think? {image}
I spent my late sunday night studied area in red-rectangle of UUP Daily chart below in depth (as proxy for USD in your chart),
my conclusion is this not bearish area... and i'm very confident about that.

But to say whether it is ready to go up would need some confirmation from next bars... so it is better to wait for a while.

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  • #12,059
  • Nov 24, 2013 12:02pm Nov 24, 2013 12:02pm
Upcoming week setup:
longed with target 1.3625
Ordered short 1.3610 with target 1.3495 SL 1.3650
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  • #12,060
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:39am Nov 25, 2013 1:39am
EU 30min TF
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