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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #6,121
  • Nov 20, 2013 8:13am Nov 20, 2013 8:13am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} {image} In my opinion , this correction is a common flat wave , with wave-c elongated . Wave-c is a terminal impulse with wave-5 extended . The target remains the same .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,122
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:27pm Nov 20, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Hi Grigoriy, I looked to your eurusd graph. Am I correct that your are using here the CEW? I'm asking you because I like to have a sort of starting point for a better understanding the HEW counting....
Нi :-)
I use only the classics!
http://www.elliottwave.com/books/ewp....aspx?code=ecg
  • #6,123
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:01am Nov 21, 2013 6:01am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} That "triangle" is not a triangle... Complex corrections - triangles, flats and expanded flats must have the first Wave A (where you have (4) ) in 3-waves. In the first leg it was not in 3-waves. Thus, it was not a triangle. Second, triangles normally break out well before the apex comes. In terms of where you place a Wave 4 ... that's the problem with EW you never know... it's all guess work and targets are never known... until after the fact. However, there is a clue - alternation. In traditional EW the general expectation is that if you...
what happen if the EW rule/guidance is broken by few pips?
is it become invalid?
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  • #6,124
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:33am Nov 21, 2013 6:33am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} what happen if the EW rule/guidance is broken by few pips? is it become invalid?
Well, a guideline is a guide and not a rule so that one is irrelevant.

Rules:
Same as CEW plus Wave iv cannot break (and not normally get close to) the Wave b of iii.

If by "rules" you're talking about the ratios, then:

Wave c's are subservient to Wave iii's and a re frequently not exact
Wave iii's are probably 98% accurate within a few points but be aware of the size of the move. If it's a Wave (iii) over 10 months or so then it's a matter of how close to the % projection. I do see 200% instead of 198.4% - that sort of thing...
In a short move then even 2 points can make a 198.4% projection look like 205%... but 2 points... meh... that's good enough...
If it's not you'll have make sure that every other ratio is just about perfect.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,125
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:59am Nov 21, 2013 10:59am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} That "triangle" is not a triangle... Complex corrections - triangles, flats and expanded flats must have the first Wave A (where you have (4) ) in 3-waves. In the first leg it was not in 3-waves. Thus, it was not a triangle. Second, triangles normally break out well before the apex comes. In terms of where you place a Wave 4 ... that's the problem with EW you never know... it's all guess work and targets are never known... until after the fact. However, there is a clue - alternation. In traditional EW the general expectation is that if you...
Yea. I don't believe that's a triangle as well.


There is upward price movement but no real "thrust" in price.

I'm curious if this climb we're having now is the last part of a b-wave.
  • #6,126
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:39pm Nov 21, 2013 2:39pm
I think EURUSD 1.383 top might have been the end of an irregular expanding triangle as a b-wave.

If that's so, then we can expect price to not retrace all of wave-e in this current down swing.
  • #6,127
  • Nov 21, 2013 5:30pm Nov 21, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting iwavetrade
I think EURUSD 1.383 top might have been the end of an irregular expanding triangle as a b-wave. If that's so, then we can expect price to not retrace all of wave-e in this current down swing.
Hi, I can't directly follow you. Do you have a chart with it?
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #6,128
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:42pm Nov 21, 2013 7:42pm
April 4th to October 5th.
  • #6,129
  • Nov 22, 2013 1:59pm Nov 22, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} That "triangle" is not a triangle... Complex corrections - triangles, flats and expanded flats must have the first Wave A (where you have (4) ) in 3-waves. In the first leg it was not in 3-waves. Thus, it was not a triangle. Second, triangles normally break out well before the apex comes. In terms of where you place a Wave 4 ... that's the problem with EW you never know... it's all guess work and targets are never known... until after the fact. However, there is a clue - alternation. In traditional EW the general expectation is that if you...

Hi Ian,
In that case (if 103.71 is EOW-5) what ever we see (the complex correction - which also looks like a triangle) should be a correction for the next leg up for wave of next higher degree right ?. The structure could be 2/4/B but the next leg should be up and a steep (impulsive) one too ? And of now it has started as well I suppose.... OR can it be another complex correction structure ? Triangles normally comes as last wave of complex waves, If this is complex structure and not a triangle, anhttp://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=97335&reply=1&page=307&quote=7101842#replyother complex structure following is as well a possibility right?
Fundamentals from BOJ, FED & ECB seems like moving towards a full blown currency war or at least the cycle is changing....
Now when a powerful central bank like BOJ intervenes in the market with brute force like this, the market is no more a true market right? This shall bring down the accuracy of Elliott waves at least in lower fractals (time frames) right?
Kindly share your thoughts....
Regards
Pied
  • #6,130
  • Nov 22, 2013 4:30pm Nov 22, 2013 4:30pm
Quoting Pied Piper
{quote} Hi Ian, In that case (if 103.71 is EOW-5) what ever we see (the complex correction - which also looks like a triangle) should be a correction for the next leg up for wave of next higher degree right ?. The structure could be 2/4/B but the next leg should be up and a steep (impulsive) one too ? And of now it has started as well I suppose.... OR can it be another complex correction structure ? Triangles normally comes as last wave of complex waves, If this is complex structure and not a triangle, anhttp://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=97335&reply=1&page=307&quote=7101842#replyother...
I don't take into account any fundamentals. I only use technicals based around Harmonic Elliott Wave. Remember that HEW moves in 3-wave structures and now think of what that means in the triangle that is not a triangle...

No count but here are the cycles and the forecast from March 2012:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,131
  • Nov 22, 2013 9:46pm Nov 22, 2013 9:46pm
Quoting Pied Piper
{quote} Hi Ian, In that case (if 103.71 is EOW-5) what ever we see (the complex correction - which also looks like a triangle) should be a correction for the next leg up for wave of next higher degree right ?. The structure could be 2/4/B but the next leg should be up and a steep (impulsive) one too ? And of now it has started as well I suppose.... OR can it be another complex correction structure ? Triangles normally comes as last wave of complex waves, If this is complex structure and not a triangle, anhttp://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=97335&reply=1&page=307&quote=7101842#replyother...
"Now when a powerful central bank like BOJ intervenes in the market with brute force like this, the market is no more a true market right? This shall bring down the accuracy of Elliott waves at least in lower fractals (time frames) right?"

I just had another look at this statement.

Technical analysis including EW/ HEW is based on the collective mass emotional reactions from all market participants. Participants do include retail traders, corporations, banks, pension funds, commercial fund managers, politicians reacting to events that means they win/lose votes and central bankers seeking to control various monetary impacts on the economy.

So I disagree about central banks intervening implying the market has broken down. It IS the market and I don't see any impact by central banks altering things apart from temporarily - a different corrective pattern, a stronger impulsive projection etc...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,132
  • Nov 23, 2013 3:28am Nov 23, 2013 3:28am
so would you say market is fixed and also pre determined? based on algorithms rather than buying and selling?
  • #6,133
  • Nov 23, 2013 5:49am Nov 23, 2013 5:49am
Quoting jaylovin
so would you say market is fixed and also pre determined? based on algorithms rather than buying and selling?
No, as I mentioned above, I think it develops due to market participants (including all of the above) reacting emotionally when buying and selling - or generating fiscal policy. Emotions do not have fixed algorithms but collectively appear to adhere to the range of projection and retracement ratios and in a structure that appears consistent.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,134
  • Nov 23, 2013 6:12am Nov 23, 2013 6:12am
Quoting jaylovin
so would you say market is fixed and also pre determined? based on algorithms rather than buying and selling?

May be better to say market behaviour is "patterned" rather than it is "fixed"
  • #6,135
  • Nov 23, 2013 5:05pm Nov 23, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} "Now when a powerful central bank like BOJ ........................ - a different corrective pattern, a stronger impulsive projection etc...
Thank You....
  • #6,136
  • Nov 24, 2013 2:44am Nov 24, 2013 2:44am
Attached Image
  • #6,137
  • Nov 24, 2013 3:41am Nov 24, 2013 3:41am
I'll tell you how I counted that nasty A->B wave... with valid ratios for a 5-wave move... The rest you'll have to work out...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-waverallyinEURUSD_zps3bc6414e.png Size: 25 KB
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,138
  • Nov 24, 2013 4:36am Nov 24, 2013 4:36am
Quoting Ian Copsey
I'll tell you how ....

How did you put avatar on your chart? MT4/MT5 or trade station....?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #6,139
  • Nov 24, 2013 4:56am Nov 24, 2013 4:56am
Quoting mima
{quote} How did you put avatar on your chart? MT4/MT5 or trade station....?
It's my logo (means Harmony) and I use a very, very old graphics package to add it to the image created by TradeStation.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,140
  • Nov 24, 2013 6:38am Nov 24, 2013 6:38am
Ian, I think I'm doing well with the counting now. At least I can follow your counting nicely

But when I look to your counting then I noticed you are using another counting scheme as the original EW couting as viewed in the image.
Where can I find the counting and color scheme you are using?

I know it's just the way we discribe the counting but I think it makes all clearer and easier to follow if I/we confirm us with the scheme you are following. At least for me it is
Attached Image
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