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Why Simple is better in trading and Complex is not

  • #101
  • Nov 20, 2013 3:25pm Nov 20, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} I think the issue is you are trading on the 5 mins not the system do week, day and 4 hour and it will work (make sure the 1st 2 - esp the 2nd one has a good angle) I main you will be right more then 50% of the time more like 70% cheers

I checked you will be going the right way 86% of the time
But more to the point you have the big guns going the right way
so likely a big win
  • #102
  • Nov 20, 2013 3:31pm Nov 20, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} Forexgogo has accounted for slippage and spread when he put up this 33%/week figure.

how do you account for slippage?
also if you start putting big amounts on you will be put on the "list" and your slippage will grow believe me!!
and they will start to trade against you and then your stops will be run and you will not even get trades.

going big with a small SL will kill you
remember there is an other side that controls the game!!
it is rigged - in that they can move the market small amounts - if you are on MT4 or 5 they can move your charts
(Why I do not trade on MT4 or 5)

cheers
  • #103
  • Nov 20, 2013 3:38pm Nov 20, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} I've 2 problems with this week, day and 4h setup. 1. a) How often does this happen in one week ? How many trades does it give you in one week ? b) How many of them turn out winners and how many losers? c) How many pairs must I look at to find that ideal trade scenario. {quote} 2. What is the S/L for this higher TFs ? 30-50pips ?

trading on the 50 I trade a lot of pairs 20 to 25 pairs
I out normally trade 1 or two a day

Stops I would put under the last Swing - if the swing is to much I would not trade
on the 4 hour about 50 pips normally
  • #104
  • Nov 20, 2013 3:40pm Nov 20, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting kostas1
{quote} Two words: MA bounces..... Simple recipe: 1. Choose a "reactive MA" (i.e. one that many people monitor) 2. Wait for price to approach MA 3. If price gives indication that it bounces from it, enter with the flow 4. SL/TP depend on MA, TF, etc... {image}
I can give 4 times it did not work for every one that did right
with a good rrr it can work -
  • #105
  • Nov 20, 2013 3:41pm Nov 20, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} I am a believer of EMA200 (1h, 4h, day, and week)

I think its the best of the MA!!
I like it but not to bounce but trend
  • #106
  • Nov 20, 2013 3:56pm Nov 20, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} I think its the best of the MA!! I like it but not to bounce but trend
I do bouncing at EMA200 if it matches with fib or SR.
  • #107
  • Nov 20, 2013 4:02pm Nov 20, 2013 4:02pm
1 to 4 will work
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 to 1 rrr.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #108
  • Nov 20, 2013 4:07pm Nov 20, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} I do bouncing at EMA200 if it matches with fib or SR.

I think you will find the 200SMA is better then
generally
pro use SMA on long term
and EMA short term

I think for trend the 200 ema or sma really doesn't matter
I started the 200 ema before I knew anything and I have a feel for it
but if I knew nothing and began I would likely use the 200 SMA

but for bounce I think the 200 SMA would be better - as the banks watch I do think it can be a bump -
esp. on the 4 hour day and week month
  • #109
  • Nov 20, 2013 4:13pm Nov 20, 2013 4:13pm
Quoting TEB63
1 to 4 will work {image}
The support is on the EMA200 (4h), when you entered. So, you do the bounce
  • #110
  • Nov 20, 2013 4:16pm Nov 20, 2013 4:16pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} I think you will find the 200SMA is better then generally pro use SMA on long term and EMA short term I think for trend the 200 ema or sma really doesn't matter I started the 200 ema before I knew anything and I have a feel for it but if I knew nothing and began I would likely use the 200 SMA but for bounce I think the 200 SMA would be better - as the banks watch I do think it can be a bump - esp. on the 4 hour day and week month
Thanks for the great tip!
  • #111
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:08pm Nov 20, 2013 5:08pm
200ema used as S/R was 1 of the 1's I proved YEARS and YEARS back, everyone made fun of me as always, but it just works and works on all TF's strangely.

Try using 500ema aswell, getting some great M5 results of it, not tested on anything else though
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #112
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:21pm Nov 20, 2013 5:21pm
Quoting Turveyd
200ema used as S/R was 1 of the 1's I proved YEARS and YEARS back, everyone made fun of me as always, but it just works and works on all TF's strangely. Try using 500ema aswell, getting some great M5 results of it, not tested on anything else though
My EMA's are better than yours...they make a pretty rainbow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #113
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:33pm Nov 20, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting Turveyd
200ema used as S/R was 1 of the 1's I proved YEARS and YEARS back, everyone made fun of me as always, but it just works and works on all TF's strangely. Try using 500ema aswell, getting some great M5 results of it, not tested on anything else though

looking at the 200 ema and 200 sma at the 1 and 4 hours on the eur and pound
I am looking at a 13 pips stop or target - I find maybe 5 hits on all the charts together
and many many many many many times more they just do not matter, - too many to count
I think I would find 5 hits with anything from 40 to 500 sma or ema

are they in the area sometimes yes but still for every time in the areas most times they are not
and I think the 200 sma and ema are the best
but not great as a S/R

my thoughts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 200 1.PNG Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 200 2.PNG Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 200 3.PNG Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 200 4.PNG Size: 51 KB
  • #114
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:33pm Nov 20, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} My EMA's are better than yours...they make a pretty rainbow. {image}


lol
  • #115
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:49pm Nov 20, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} looking at the 200 ema and 200 sma at the 1 and 4 hours on the eur and pound I am looking at a 13 pips stop or target - I find maybe 5 hits on all the charts together and many many many many many times more they just do not matter, - too many to count I think I would find 5 hits with anything from 40 to 500 sma or ema are they in the area sometimes yes but still for every time in the areas most times they are not and I think the 200 sma and ema are the best but not great as a S/R my thoughts {image} {image} {image} {image}

I used to use a stack of MA's in this kinda way, I even went down to trying to time entries with S10 charts, although others where using my method's profitably, I suck and never trusted it and just made stupid trades.

Try my method out, M5, 60sma go with the direction of, general direction not exact, then buy pull backs if 60 is up.

Range and Direction both give me the confidence to actually use it, low of range with direction = damn good hit rate and excellent R:R.

Template included, Yellow is the 60 go with that, and study how the 26's and 60's ranges work depending on market conditions, check out gpbaud and NZDUSD on it today license to print money I kid you not, it looks wayyyy more complicated than it is thankfully.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl study this.tpl   37 KB | 317 downloads
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #116
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:53pm Nov 20, 2013 5:53pm
Teb63,

First of all congratz for your words of wisdom about simplicity or KISS and i see we're talking here about the importance of the 200 e or sma,but there's something i noticed ,you went short on G/U but on the weekly ,daily ,4h the trend is up...and you went short not for 50 pips but alot more,so would you be so kind explaining why,the only thing i came up with was a channel that was tested a few times before....so next :any MA needed or not??sorry to bother you with this but already confused even this is only about a 200MA.And believe me I want to keep it simple.
  • #117
  • Edited 6:59pm Nov 20, 2013 6:22pm | Edited 6:59pm
Quoting Deepfxtrader
Teb63, First of all congratz for your words of wisdom about simplicity or KISS and i see we're talking here about the importance of the 200 e or sma,but there's something i noticed ,you went short on G/U but on the weekly ,daily ,4h the trend is up...and you went short not for 50 pips but alot more,so would you be so kind explaining why,the only thing i came up with was a channel that was tested a few times before....so next :any MA needed or not??sorry to bother you with this but already confused even this is only about a 200MA.And believe me I...

the 200ma is a great tool as far as tools go - I have a tread on it going at this time in trading systems

how do I find my SL
- never a set number
it is based on a few things
1. the last swing
2. Whole numbers
3. must be over a number to make it worth while
4. can I find a target that is at least 1 to 3 RRR (so I need at least 1 to 4)
  • #118
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:51pm Nov 20, 2013 6:51pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} the 200ma is a great tool as far as tools go - I have a tread on it going at this time in trading systems how do I find my SL - never a set number it is based on a few things 1. things the last swing 2. Whole numbers 3. must be over a number to make it worth wile 4. can I find a target at least 1 to 3 RRR (so I need at least 1 to 4)

Thank you for your quick reply,so this wasn't an MA based trade,i will definitly check your other tread.

Greetings
  • #119
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:34am Nov 21, 2013 3:34am
Quoting skyway
{quote}The thing to look out for is in the details.
Well said
I was just thinking that given all other parameters were averagely equivalent, would trend traders be more profitable than swing ones? Just a thought, because no perfect comparison could be made.
  • #120
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:26am Nov 21, 2013 10:26am
Quoting cungchoi
{quote} Well said I was just thinking that given all other parameters were averagely equivalent, would trend traders be more profitable than swing ones? Just a thought, because no perfect comparison could be made.

well I guess the stronger the trend the more profitable for trend trades
but might a swing trader make even more in a strong trend as he got in and out in the trend
but in a non trend market the swing is king
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