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Why Simple is better in trading and Complex is not

  • #41
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:58pm Nov 18, 2013 2:58pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
Indeed always interesting to see other's setups. There is usually at least a little bit of validity to anything. After many iterations, I've come to trade about as naked as possible, like this....with the arrows representing my signals. {image}
Muy interesant... To me, most arrows look counter-trend entries... Probably money management is the key to profit, no?
  • #42
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:18pm Nov 18, 2013 3:18pm
Yes, some counter trend and some not. Positions are just added to and subtracted from in fixed increments.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #43
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:31pm Nov 18, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
Indeed always interesting to see other's setups.
Hi! First if all, congratulations on the trading! The beginning is always the hardest. I'm also an adept of "the simpler, the better". As you wished for others view on the market, here's mine. It's the last week on euro. As you can see, even a monkey could have made big bucks. The lower trendline was in place since Monday open. Yet somehow i managed to end the week 100eur lighter. The main reason I take in account for this fail is over analyzing and trying to get every move on lower timeframes, and a total ignorance for the bigger ones.


As someone pointed earlier in the thread, the market gives and takes away. Once the order is open you are at the mercy of the others. All you can do is stand, watch and figure out when it's enough.(either - or +)
When trading one should never set himself trapped in precise figures. aka i have to make 50pips on this trade. The price hit the TL , so i'm selling/buying AND it MUST go 50points. This is by far the biggest mistake.
I also noticed that if i spend a lot of time forecasting and analyzing the chart, i change my bias prematurely and the "what if" kind of questions start popping in my head.

Green pips to all! This topic is great.
ps: I would go for a short on E/U, SL : .3535, TP:.3472 ~1:1 ratio
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  • #44
  • Nov 18, 2013 4:04pm Nov 18, 2013 4:04pm
Quoting BooG
{quote} When trading one should never set himself trapped in precise figures. aka i have to make 50pips on this trade. The price hit the TL , so i'm selling/buying AND it MUST go 50points. This is by far the biggest mistake.
No offense, but for the sake of discussion, I beg to differ.

One of my money managements goes like this:
SL=10pips no matter what. TP=25pips. (Once +10pips, then break even no matter what.)

Even when I see a chance of big win, I don't enter if I need to take more than 10 pips for SL.

It works good to me.
  • #45
  • Nov 18, 2013 4:09pm Nov 18, 2013 4:09pm
Quoting BooG
{quote} As someone pointed earlier in the thread, the market gives and takes away. Once the order is open you are at the mercy of the others. All you can do is stand, watch and figure out when it's enough.(either - or +) When trading one should never set himself trapped in precise figures. aka i have to make 50pips on this trade. The price hit the TL , so i'm selling/buying AND it MUST go 50points. This is by far the biggest mistake. I also noticed that if i spend a lot of time forecasting and analyzing the chart, i change my bias prematurely and...
Hi BooG,

This is a very important point you are making. Having a fix limit, and being ignorant thinking "limit is king" is not very professional. This markets are very dynamic, when they change you have to change too. Dont wait and watch it stopping you out, and dont wait for it to take profits away. Sometimes its better to close before limit, and sometimes its even better to let the position run further. A trade isnt over when you enter it, you need to manage it properly, thats the difference between a pro and an beginner! A pro is able to cut the loss on a loser and let a winner run and still manages to keep his inner calmness if a decision turns out to be wrong.
consistency wins
  • #46
  • Nov 18, 2013 4:13pm Nov 18, 2013 4:13pm
I agree. I have to let the market's structure dictate when I change position and thus when I take profits and losses. Doing so with an arbitrary figure seems wasteful. What's truly hilarious is when people say they want to make X number of pips per week. Really? You want to tell the market what to give you? Good luck with that. It has to be ridden and adjusted to rather than predicted and tamed.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #47
  • Nov 18, 2013 4:43pm Nov 18, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting iTrader
{quote} Having a fix limit, and being ignorant thinking "limit is king" is not very professional. This markets are very dynamic, when they change you have to change too. ... A pro is able to cut the loss on a loser and let a winner run and still manages to keep his inner calmness if a decision turns out to be wrong.


Quoting LizardGizzard
Doing so with an arbitrary figure seems wasteful. What's truly hilarious is when people say they want to make X number of pips per week.
Seems like I'm a very much minority -- According to you guys, I'm "hilariously" not "professional." That is OK, I don't mind being derided.

Fixed SL & TP, however, could bring you steady income if only you can find suitable situations to trade.

So far, I've been able to keep my winning rate more than 33% in each week, which guarantees me a few pips a week. It's an easy way to trade with no pressure. So, my only question is, how many lots I'm willing to put in

PS I got this idea from the blackjack card counting strategy.
  • #48
  • Nov 18, 2013 4:47pm Nov 18, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} One of my money managements goes like this: SL=10pips no matter what. TP=25pips. (Once +10pips, then break even no matter what.)
This strategy applies for scalping, and if you have a sound TA on the chart with 51% win rate you will make money. I, for one, am trying to move to higher timeframes.
If you are willing to share your trading set-up or maybe a trade explorer , i will be forever in your debt .

My latest challenge was trying to apply for a position as an account manager. My test consisted of a10k$ demo account. My task was to hit 70-30 win rate, minimum 20 trades, with SL: max 50 pips & TP: min 50 pips. test duration : 1 week. Minimum trade size : 1 lot. Spread 3 pips (only E/U). Trades with less the 10 pips (+,-) could not be closed.

I failed miserably. (ended with a -25%)But, it was an eye-opener. I realized how important are those 10 pips near the entry. Those are the ones that add 10-15% to the default win ration (50-50). I was just watching my ~+6 pips trade go into SL at -10 p.

Trading is harsh. And the more you try to figure it out, the more it shows you that it's a chance game, a random sequence of numbers that in the end form an elegant and obvious pattern
  • #49
  • Nov 18, 2013 5:12pm Nov 18, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} {quote} Seems like I'm a very much minority -- According to you guys, I'm "hilariously" not "professional." That is OK, I don't mind being derided. Fixed SL & TP, however, could bring you steady income if only you can find suitable situations to trade. So far, I've been able to keep my winning rate more than 33% in each week, which guarantees me a few pips a week. It's an easy way to trade with no pressure. So, my only question is, how many lots I'm willing to put in PS I got this idea from the blackjack card counting strategy....
I don't think you're in a minority. First thing is no matter who says what, Remember that's just someone's opinion not necessarily fact especially when talking about what the pro's do. What I find hilarious Is when someone offers a broad opinion, without knowing all the facts relating to someone's trading method or rules of their trading plan. The facts are we all benefit, when people offer their thoughts and participate in the debate. If you read the op, he's asking for different traders opinions and why.
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • #50
  • Nov 18, 2013 7:09pm Nov 18, 2013 7:09pm
I didn't mean to be derisive towards you specifically, Forexgogo. Sry if I seemed to be! If a method works for you, then its absolutelyvalid. What I was referring to was setting a goal of say "100 pips per day" without regard for the structure of the market. That's different than having a profit target on a "per trade" basis. In my own style, I'm just riding the waves, so perhaps a few the pips will come and perhaps they won't. but I'm certainly in no position to criticize something that actually works for someone else. More than one way to skin the ole cat.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #51
  • Nov 18, 2013 8:48pm Nov 18, 2013 8:48pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} Muy interesant... To me, most arrows look counter-trend entries... Probably money management is the key to profit, no?

yes I was trying to figure out your stops as well
  • #52
  • Nov 18, 2013 8:49pm Nov 18, 2013 8:49pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} No offense, but for the sake of discussion, I beg to differ. One of my money managements goes like this: SL=10pips no matter what. TP=25pips. (Once +10pips, then break even no matter what.) Even when I see a chance of big win, I don't enter if I need to take more than 10 pips for SL. It works good to me.
10 pips wow that is tight
  • #53
  • Nov 18, 2013 8:51pm Nov 18, 2013 8:51pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} {quote} Seems like I'm a very much minority -- According to you guys, I'm "hilariously" not "professional." That is OK, I don't mind being derided. Fixed SL & TP, however, could bring you steady income if only you can find suitable situations to trade. So far, I've been able to keep my winning rate more than 33% in each week, which guarantees me a few pips a week. It's an easy way to trade with no pressure. So, my only question is, how many lots I'm willing to put in PS I got this idea from the blackjack card counting strategy....
I think you have a great RRR!!!
great stuff
  • #54
  • Nov 19, 2013 3:03am Nov 19, 2013 3:03am
Quoting TEB63
I want to get people thinking and taking so let me post this there. These are my thoughts on trading and see if we get some fire works lol. But lets everyone be nice lol Man I love FF so much junk on trading I think trade should be To trade keep it simple 1. Find a trend- 2. Find a good stop - whatever you like - S/R S/D "OO" & "50" the other side of a 50, 100 200 MA whatever. 3. Find a target - whatever you like - S/R S/D ”OO" & "50" the other side of a 50, 100 200 MA whatever (I like it on a higher time frame) 4. make sure you have a good RRR...
are you on exctasy man?
  • #55
  • Nov 19, 2013 4:58am Nov 19, 2013 4:58am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} are you on exctasy man?

not as a rule
are you? your post is rather meaningless what are you asking saying stating
  • #56
  • Edited 11:22am Nov 19, 2013 11:06am | Edited 11:22am
Let's get back to the original subject -- "simple is better"

Here is food of thought -- one of the trading methods I do.

red - ema48 yellow - ema96, green - ema200.
vertical lines -- stoc U-turns. But only when red-yellow--green are in order (up or down)

Some lines make profit, but others don't (sometimes it depends on SL/TP).

I don't explain how I do this for ya -- you figure out how to make profit from it.

The question is, how do you filter the entries?

There are millions of ways (not only PA, but also money management can make it work pretty good. remember I use fixed SL and TP in some situations)

This can be pretty "simple and stupid," but effective stuff.

Give me some interesting idea
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  • #57
  • Nov 19, 2013 11:37am Nov 19, 2013 11:37am
This is a simple trade !!
Great RRR
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  • #58
  • Nov 19, 2013 11:40am Nov 19, 2013 11:40am
For something which can only go up or down, people sure do like to complicate things.
  • #59
  • Nov 19, 2013 11:52am Nov 19, 2013 11:52am
this is a simple sale 1 to 4RRR I called it this morning
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  • #60
  • Nov 19, 2013 12:49pm Nov 19, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Let's get back to the original subject -- "simple is better" Here is food of thought -- one of the trading methods I do. red - ema48 yellow - ema96, green - ema200. vertical lines -- stoc U-turns. But only when red-yellow--green are in order (up or down) Some lines make profit, but others don't (sometimes it depends on SL/TP). I don't explain how I do this for ya -- you figure out how to make profit from it. The question is, how do you filter the entries? There are millions of ways (not only PA, but also money management can make it work pretty...

I understand why you have a fixed SL to limit loss
But I am not sure it is the best way for a number of reasons
1. spread & slippage are not the same for all pairs and all times.
2. all pips are not the same ie eudusd us usdcad one is 1/2 the other in money

better to put your SL under protection ( I think the best are swings and whole numbers with S/D and S/R also good a 200 or 50 MA is workable)
and then adjust the amount of money you are putting on each trade

You will make a lot more
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