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Project rocketa (EA development)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Dec 6, 2013 6:39am Nov 10, 2013 5:41am | Edited Dec 6, 2013 6:39am
DEAD!!!
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #2
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:58am Nov 10, 2013 5:58am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
You should find some EAs already coded and doing exactly the same thing.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #3
  • Nov 10, 2013 7:37am Nov 10, 2013 7:37am
Quoting FerruFx
You should find some EAs already coded and doing exactly the same thing.
Do you know of any FerruFx?
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #4
  • Nov 10, 2013 2:53pm Nov 10, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting Pipomagic
Thank You Recommendations/suggestions are welcome.
Firstly, I apologize if my reply seems negative, conceited or rude.

Software development has been my career since I left high school in 1979. More recently, I have written more than 400 MT4 indicators and EAs.

Between 2009–2011 I wrote maybe 20 EAs that operated according to rules provided by other traders. As far as I know, none of these EAs are still being run today, due to the strategies eventually proving to be unprofitable, over changing market conditions. Some of these projects lasted several weeks, as the EA was modified to include different entry filters, types of exit, money management systems, etc. If I may be blunt, a project that fails is a waste of time for everybody involved. Hence I've grown to believe that developing a profitable automated trader is a lot more difficult than most people realize, and I'm much more selective about the projects that I choose to undertake.

Hence my question is: why do you believe that a SL=10/TP=10 straddle (or any 1:1 RR-based straddle), that enters at prices that are randomly chosen, will be profitable enough (over a long period of time) to overcome the br0ker spread?
  • #5
  • Nov 10, 2013 7:09pm Nov 10, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Firstly, I apologize if my reply seems negative, conceited or rude. Software development has been my career since I left high school in 1979. More recently, I have written more than 400 MT4 indicators and EAs. Between 2009–2011 I wrote maybe 20 EAs that operated according to rules provided by other traders. As far as I know, none of these EAs are still being run today, due to the strategies eventually proving to be unprofitable, over changing market conditions. Some of these projects lasted several weeks, as the EA was modified to include...
let's say the spread is 1.5 pips and the below chats are set to 10 pip bricks, on which chart do you think you would lost money if you traded the suggested EA?
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DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #6
  • Nov 10, 2013 7:54pm Nov 10, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting Pipomagic
{quote} let's say the spread is 1.5 pips and the below chats are set to 10 pip bricks, on which chart do you think you would lost money if you traded the suggested EA? {image} {image}
I've no idea what the big chart proves as it appears to be blocks of 50 pips.
The other chart is too small to see what it is.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #7
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:07pm Nov 10, 2013 9:07pm
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Gumrai
{quote} I've no idea what the big chart proves as it appears to be blocks of 50 pips. The other chart is too small to see what it is.
Anyway the results in the long term will be the same.

Rigid strategy can't survive ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #8
  • Edited 10:35pm Nov 10, 2013 10:22pm | Edited 10:35pm
Quoting Pipomagic
{quote} let's say the spread is 1.5 pips and the below chats are set to 10 pip bricks, on which chart do you think you would lost money if you traded the suggested EA? {image} {image}
I'm sorry, but I don't see how the charts you posted prove anything, especially as the entries you described in post #1 are effectively random. You would need to show all of the entry and exit points.

If you're trading 10 pip moves, and the spread is 1.5 pips, the 'house edge' is 15% against you. It would take a very robust strategy to consistently overcome those odds.

It's my view that a winning edge is possible only by exploiting a recurring 'inefficiency' in price behavior (i.e. price patterns caused by factors like macroeconomics, money flows, levels of supply and demand, orderflow, breakouts during times of high liquidity, central bank/heavyweight activity, self-fulfilling prophecy, news trading, fading extreme overboughtness/oversoldness, trapped trader behavior, key OHLC levels, session/time-of-day idiosyncrasies, .....). Grid strategies don't perform any kind of analysis. If a simple grid strategy was profitable, all of the big banks and institutions could save themselves millions of dollars by dismissing all of their expert traders, analysts, economics PhDs etc, and simply run an EA along the lines that you have suggested. No EA can ever trade with the intelligence or adaptability of an experienced human trader.

I would want to see at least 500 trades to be convinced that results are not the result of mere 'luck'. Here are the results of some backtests of EAs that I co-developed with mim2005. These EAs seek to exploit moves caused by macroeconomic factors, and were backtested across data from 6 years worth of changing markets, and several hundred trades. Yet there is no absolute guarantee that they will continue to remain profitable, going forward.

Anyway, that's just my opinion, for whatever it's worth. I hope that you can find a programmer to help you.
  • #9
  • Nov 11, 2013 3:15am Nov 11, 2013 3:15am
Quoting hanover
{quote} I'm sorry, but I don't see how the charts you posted prove anything, especially as the entries you described in post #1 are effectively random. You would need to show all of the entry and exit points. If you're trading 10 pip moves, and the spread is 1.5 pips, the 'house edge' is 15% against you. It would take a very robust strategy to consistently overcome those odds. It's my view that a winning edge is possible only by exploiting a recurring 'inefficiency' in price behavior (i.e. price patterns caused by factors like macroeconomics, money...

the spread will be accounted for. i value your input though. we are always looking for that simple yet consistent method of trading. i will try and code the EA and Demo it for 20 days. I will check the link you provided brother
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #10
  • Nov 11, 2013 4:13am Nov 11, 2013 4:13am
Quoting Gumrai
{quote} I've no idea what the big chart proves as it appears to be blocks of 50 pips. The other chart is too small to see what it is.

if you can't relate, it doesn't prove anything mate.
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #11
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:46am Nov 11, 2013 5:46am
Quoting Pipomagic
{quote} if you can't relate, it doesn't prove anything mate.
You post a chart with 50 pip blocks when you are talking about 10 pip moves, so it's not a case that I can't relate. Nobody can see the relationship.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #12
  • Nov 14, 2013 8:25am Nov 14, 2013 8:25am
Doing well so far on the Demo
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #13
  • Nov 14, 2013 9:43am Nov 14, 2013 9:43am
I wish you success Brother, but also be prepare to go back to square one.

I play with renko for years, almost any kind of renko types, so i can tell you that renko is only zig-zag with a better shape. Yes its true that you can 'see' market movement more clearly with less noise but with my very limited knowledge in coding, until now i can't found any EA that can 'see' like experienced trader eye..

You should learn what Hanover and FerruFx said, They are the 'real' experts in this field.

Mostly when you create what we call 'simple' EA, at the end it will become just another 'simple' EA plus thousand lines of code with hundreds of keep changing new 'better' indicators l to try according to keep coming suggestions from others..

Anyway once again i wish you Success..

Happy Trading and best regard
  • #14
  • Nov 16, 2013 3:24am Nov 16, 2013 3:24am
Quoting Pipomagic
Doing well so far on the Demo
Hi Pipomagic,

I try make quick example, is it correct as what you wish?

If you can paper trade like what I did on 15Nov2013 at least for 1months results, may be someone will create EA if it profitable.
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  • #15
  • Nov 17, 2013 5:32am Nov 17, 2013 5:32am
very interesting method, something which i wanted to try myself....am very interested in how ur demo is going on..
  • #16
  • Dec 5, 2013 5:12am Dec 5, 2013 5:12am
To echo Hanover and ferrufx

Grid type systems have been done to death on this forum for years. We have each written at least one and a cursory search can easily locate them.

Grids work moderately well in sideways markets, the problem is how does one detect whether or not a sideways market is starting or ending?

Grids also suffer from a major theoretical assumption--slippage is zero. How do you handle slippages when --not if--when it happens?
  • #17
  • Last Post: Dec 10, 2013 6:20am Dec 10, 2013 6:20am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
To echo Hanover and ferrufx Grid type systems have been done to death on this forum for years. We have each written at least one and a cursory search can easily locate them. Grids work moderately well in sideways markets, the problem is how does one detect whether or not a sideways market is starting or ending? Grids also suffer from a major theoretical assumption--slippage is zero. How do you handle slippages when --not if--when it happens?

he strikes
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