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  • #1,581
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:35pm Nov 15, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I want that premium - need the sold puts to pay me to gamble on a further drop. I think TSLA could make a run below $120 by yearend, easy.
my mistake if your selling/writing options you want high IV
  • #1,582
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:43pm Nov 15, 2013 2:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I want that premium - need the sold puts to pay me to gamble on a further drop. I think TSLA could make a run below $120 by yearend, easy.
got an order for the long TSLA Dec '21 $100 puts for $0.85 pending
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,583
  • Nov 15, 2013 3:03pm Nov 15, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} got an order for the long TSLA Dec '21 $100 puts for $0.85 pending
there's a lot of time value in that option to come out if your buying wait until december
  • #1,584
  • Edited 3:57pm Nov 15, 2013 3:31pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} there's a lot of time value in that option to come out if your buying wait until december
it's a balancing act when I'm spreading: I need the premium when I sell the puts, but I can't sell the puts in any kind of number unless I spread (unless I sell puts against bought ones) - so the two things are at odds, but nothing to be done. Usually works out groovy .... if I'm right. Anyway that's what I get for being poor. If I had the cash up front I would sell the puts first when they were fat and then hopefully buy the other leg on a run in the underlying.

anyway, I did get in long TSLA 12/21 puts at $0.85, will look to sell 11/29 or 11/22 put leg Monday or so....we'll see. Will look for at least $0.15 of credit on the spread and for TSLA to continue a steady slide. Steady, not hard. So I can take all or most of the sold put and make something on the long $100 puts. I look for TSLA to range between $125 - $145 until after T'giving....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,585
  • Nov 15, 2013 10:42pm Nov 15, 2013 10:42pm
EWZ up >$2.50 in the last 3 days, lt at $48.74. With Yellen pooping on the USD I could see EWZ make $55 by Christmas.

And Jan 18 $55 calls are only $0.17 ($56 @ $0.11). $55 by Xmas would get you $1.50 - $1.75 itm...a 10 bagger.

If it ran up like I says then you could sell near otm calls for credit...as it is the otm puts are rather dear, so a strangle does not entice....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,586
  • Nov 15, 2013 11:01pm Nov 15, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting The Fool
With Yellen pooping on the USD I could see EWZ make $55 by Christmas...
FXI (lt $38.44), different continent, same story, but a strangle looks better: you can get in a Jan 18 $34/$42 strangle for $0.50-$0.60 and a hit itm by Xmas would get >$1.35
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,587
  • Edited Nov 16, 2013 12:28am Nov 15, 2013 11:54pm | Edited Nov 16, 2013 12:28am
When I get a few toddies in me I like to look at graphs of nuggets n dust:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,588
  • Nov 16, 2013 12:02am Nov 16, 2013 12:02am
Quoting The Fool
EWZ up >$2.50 in the last 3 days, lt at $48.74. With Yellen pooping on the USD I could see EWZ make $55 by Christmas. And Jan 18 $55 calls are only $0.17 ($56 @ $0.11). $55 by Xmas would get you $1.50 - $1.75 itm...a 10 bagger. If it ran up like I says then you could sell near otm calls for credit...as it is the otm puts are rather dear, so a strangle does not entice.... {image}
EWZ has so much resistance just above its price with the 50 and 200 day converging up there together on the daily chart, i like to see it clear it first
  • #1,589
  • Nov 16, 2013 12:33am Nov 16, 2013 12:33am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} EWZ has so much resistance just above its price with the 50 and 200 day converging up there together on the daily chart, i like to see it clear it first
I hear ya, but it could break out to the $50's like bangin a gong (we are prolly lookin at the root of that the last 2-3 days), and when it does the calls are gonna fatten up. I am thinkin I will get some while they're cheap...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,590
  • Nov 16, 2013 1:25am Nov 16, 2013 1:25am
Quoting The Fool
When I get a few toddies in me I like to look at graphs of nuggets n dust: {image}
I keep thinking I'm gonna find a synthetic strangle in there between NUGT & DUST that will always pay. I only try when I'm gettin wasted. Time for bed....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,591
  • Nov 16, 2013 6:35pm Nov 16, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I keep thinking I'm gonna find a synthetic strangle in there between NUGT & DUST that will always pay.....
Synthetic strangles a pet topic of mine, comes naturally out of doing intermarket analysis. If you keep looking I bet you could find some relationships that are exploitable...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,592
  • Nov 16, 2013 11:45pm Nov 16, 2013 11:45pm
PHM one of the better homebuilder stocks, with ~10MM shares traded daily, has liquid options, looks like some reliable 30-60 day swings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,593
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:17pm Nov 17, 2013 12:17pm
Another potential target for an earnings release scalp this week: TGT, earnings out 11/21, prev releases have shown some action. Possible to get into a wide-ish strangle for cheap: $69c/$64p @ $0.28/$0.34, net debit ~$0.65. A finish atm would see $1.25 or better. I would cheat the long side a little on this, just a little...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,594
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:29pm Nov 17, 2013 12:29pm
GMCR, out 11/20 - even $10 otm 11/22 strikes still pay $1 - a good one for a wide short strangle, like $53/$73. m/l free money, just don't have enough cash to make the naked writes worthwhile....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,595
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:43pm Nov 17, 2013 12:43pm
Will be watching Tyson foods earnings tomorrow plus looking to make a play on Home Depot and Best buy for Tuesdays earnings, final decision to be made later tomorrow if the price is right.
Gamma scalps I'm looking at Facebook, waiting to see how it reacts against the 50 day MA plus GLD/GDX just before FOMC minutes on Wednesday. We're getting closer to a major move on GOLD as the IV is dropping each week to a lower level, another few weeks should bring us to almost near a 52 week low that's what I'm hoping for
  • #1,596
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:45pm Nov 17, 2013 12:45pm
one more: CRM, out ah Monday, so would need to go Monday b4 the close, maybe 54/62, would cost ~$2, but a finish atm would be looking for $3. Previous release had an $8 pop long.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,597
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:48pm Nov 17, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
plus GLD/GDX just before FOMC minutes on Wednesday. We're getting closer to a major move on GOLD as the IV is dropping each week to a lower level, another few weeks should bring us to almost near a 52 week low that's what I'm hoping for
I spent some time looking at gold this we and still don't have a clew. But I think you're right: gold is gonna pop soon one way or the other....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,598
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:49pm Nov 17, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting The Fool
Another potential target for an earnings release scalp this week: TGT, earnings out 11/21, prev releases have shown some action. Possible to get into a wide-ish strangle for cheap: $69c/$64p @ $0.28/$0.34, net debit ~$0.65. A finish atm would see $1.25 or better. I would cheat the long side a little on this, just a little... {image}
Interesting with TGT its right up against the 200 day on the daily, once HD/BBY have released there earnings may set the tone for TGT
  • #1,599
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:52pm Nov 17, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting The Fool
one more: CRM, out ah Monday, so would need to go Monday b4 the close, maybe 54/62, would cost ~$2, but a finish atm would be looking for $3. Previous release had an $8 pop long.
Damn! i missed that, salesforce is a great stock and it can really move, i've seen that stock options increase multiple times in the past
  • #1,600
  • Nov 17, 2013 1:01pm Nov 17, 2013 1:01pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Interesting with TGT its right up against the 200 day on the daily, once HD/BBY have released there earnings may set the tone for TGT
I had been thinking I would do HD but not feeling it, leaning toward TGT now, will be chewing on it next day or so...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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