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Let's Trade Options

  • #1,501
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:30pm Nov 11, 2013 7:30pm
Cisco has earnings out 11/14, has moved well on prior releases, with up to 200MM shares traded the day....

sitting @ ~$23.50, an 11/16 $25c/$22p strangle is $0.15/$0.15 - $0.30 net

a buckfifty move does not look like too much to ask...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,502
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:57pm Nov 11, 2013 7:57pm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1819...o?source=yahoo

"Also of interest, the CBOE press release notes:
“Plans call for CBOE and CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE) to introduce VXST Weeklys options and futures. The launch dates for these tradable VXST products are yet to be determined, pending regulatory approval.”
As compelling as VIX products are for trading, I can imagine that VXST options and futures might be even more attractive to certain types of traders. Also, if VXST futures gain some traction, I can envision ETPs based on these that might rival the interest in VXX at some point."

...looking forward to that....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,503
  • Nov 12, 2013 12:33am Nov 12, 2013 12:33am
BBY earnings out 11/19, is already up >10% in the last week, 275% on the year, wish I owned the stock, I would sell Dec $50 calls...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,504
  • Nov 12, 2013 12:46am Nov 12, 2013 12:46am
a new one for the watchlist, nice action
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,505
  • Nov 12, 2013 2:15am Nov 12, 2013 2:15am
Quoting The Fool
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1819...o?source=yahoo "Also of interest, the CBOE press release notes: “Plans call for CBOE and CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE) to introduce VXST Weeklys options and futures. The launch dates for these tradable VXST products are yet to be determined, pending regulatory approval.” As compelling as VIX products are for trading, I can imagine that VXST options and futures might be even more attractive to certain types of traders. Also, if VXST futures gain some traction,...
I'm waiting on them too, see how there priced and volume
  • #1,506
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:57am Nov 12, 2013 11:57am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm waiting on them too, see how there priced and volume
I'd expect shorter term VIX options to be an immediate success with huge volume, just wonder how long it will take for those to work through into ETP products like VXX and UVXY.....we'll see
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,507
  • Nov 12, 2013 12:04pm Nov 12, 2013 12:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'd expect shorter term VIX options to be an immediate success with huge volume, just wonder how long it will take for those to work through into ETP products like VXX and UVXY.....we'll see
its the price they set it at which will determine how close the strike prices will be, closer the better for gamma scalpers
  • #1,508
  • Nov 12, 2013 1:30pm Nov 12, 2013 1:30pm
trying for a put option on GLD gold has been moving down very slowly on relatively low volume due to a short trading week. Its cleared a couple of zones for me so i'll be taking GLD $119 put for 17c or better for Fridays expiration

GLD Nov 2013 119.000 put (GLD131116P00119000)
-OPR
0.17 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.08(88.89%) 18:57





price as it stands is at $122.39 for the underly





SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
-NYSEArca

122.29 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 1.58(1.28%) 7:29PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #1,509
  • Nov 12, 2013 1:56pm Nov 12, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting The Fool
...or, the same play on TBT calls: sell Dec 21 $87 calls @ $0.50 buy Jan '15 $120c @ $2.47 (repeat several times in 2014) If Gartman is right. TBT could go to $120+ by late 2014, would need to see 10y note rates of about 4% then...... will be watching TLT/TBT this week to see if one of these spreads is a go....
Can't make up my mind on a TLT or TBT spread today, but I am leaning toward the above TBT scenario.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,510
  • Nov 12, 2013 2:17pm Nov 12, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
trying for a put option on GLD gold has been moving
wish I could comment on your gold trades but I have m/l cut out pm's from what I watch. Fact is I have never been into them that much, don't understand them enough.

Still tempted on a short TSLA play but with negative news out it may be moving too fast for the bear put spread I had in mind above.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,511
  • Nov 12, 2013 2:36pm Nov 12, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting The Fool
Cisco has earnings out 11/14, has moved well on prior releases, with up to 200MM shares traded the day.... sitting @ ~$23.50, an 11/16 $25c/$22p strangle is $0.15/$0.15 - $0.30 net a buckfifty move does not look like too much to ask... {image}
took a punt at this one for $0.29 net debit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,512
  • Nov 12, 2013 7:26pm Nov 12, 2013 7:26pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Ya man Ill be in here... just keep the riff raff out ....You use any sector rotation type stuff to narrow down your tradeable instruments?
Wulfgar, hope you're in tall cotton.

Speaking of sector rotation I hear seasonal oil plays are strong, now til the Spring.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stockopt...rtner=yahootix

I missed the UNG dip I had been looking for. But crude could make a comeback...dipping pretty low....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-fa...225839442.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,513
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:54pm Nov 12, 2013 9:54pm
So who is buying this dip in /ES? Pretty early to be down here and I was thinking tmrw would be bullish.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #1,514
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:13pm Nov 12, 2013 10:13pm
Quoting zusch
So who is buying this dip in /ES? Pretty early to be down here and I was thinking tmrw would be bullish.
there was a dip? I see futures down a hair atm. There's a 10Y auction tomorrow, I will be watching that. Rates were up today but so were long bond futures, which is why TLT was up 2 bits.

Up, down or sideways, pay yer money & make yer bets. I wanna get some in any eventuality but it ain't that easy....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,515
  • Nov 13, 2013 2:32am Nov 13, 2013 2:32am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} there was a dip? I see futures down a hair atm. There's a 10Y auction tomorrow, I will be watching that. Rates were up today but so were long bond futures, which is why TLT was up 2 bits. Up, down or sideways, pay yer money & make yer bets. I wanna get some in any eventuality but it ain't that easy....
Price was aggressively attacking Tuesday's low and slipped just past it, but was only a bear trap. Has gone up faster than it went down. Will be interesting to see where we open up tmrw at 9:30.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #1,516
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:08am Nov 13, 2013 9:08am
If NFLX wasn't so expensive I'd buy puts on it. Even short term weeklies are too much
  • #1,517
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:32am Nov 13, 2013 9:32am
great thread. I haven't posted on here for years, but just check out the calendar from time to time when necessary. I have been a licensed commodity/currency trader for almost 15 years, and I trade options for my clients. NOT POSTING to get clients, thankfully I have enough of them..............just posting to show some trades I do, and if I can remember to I will gladly show how I trade out of them in as close to real time as possible.
I am predominantly an option writer. I use crude oil, silver, gold, emini S&P, soybeans, coffee, gas, etc. Honestly between those 6 or so instruments right there I can usually find worthwhile trades.
My strategy is pretty consistent, I combine technicals from my own charts with a mathematical model that I have refined over the years, and then will use fundamentals and common sense as necessary. As an experiment over the years I have entered random strike prices and traded out of them as necessary to prove my point.....that when writing options, as long as you stay equal parts aggressive and humble, your problems will not be overwhelming.
anyways, right this second I am sitting in some Jan crude 104 and 105 calls that I wrote for $550 and $390 respectively, and they are worth 60 and 70 now. I usually don't enter the 2nd month that soon, but the trend was so bearish in crude that Dec calls lost all their juice (premium) and I wasn't about to write a 98 when the market was at 95. I also have on an emini strangle at 1825 and 1660 for December. wrote the calls for 6.25 ($312.50) and the puts for 5.50 ($275). the puts are breakeven currently and the calls are worth $165. I wrote the same number of each this time, but that isn't always the case, I will sometimes write more of a call or put, depending on my charts.
overall, I think it is important to understand deltas/gammas when doing this, and always have your exit known upon entry. I start paying attention to an option when it is about 30% more expensive than when I wrote it, but will quite often take a 75-100% loss on one side before rolling out to a larger # of further strikes.
I love options. I don't know why they get such a bad name sometimes. Happy I found this thread.
I am currently pricing a new Jan crude strangle, and also looking at Gas puts. Also soybean calls.
FYI whenever I write something, I am selling them, NOT buying them. I am of the belief that buying options is a suckers game. just my humble opinion. I hope I can keep up and keep posting in this thread and paying attention to it, I tried to do this once before and it just fell by the wayside as work is busy.
thanks for creating it.
  • #1,518
  • Nov 13, 2013 10:02am Nov 13, 2013 10:02am
Quoting pipple
great thread. I haven't posted on here for years, but just check out the calendar from time to time when necessary. I have been a licensed commodity/currency trader for almost 15 years, and I trade options for my clients. NOT POSTING to get clients, thankfully I have enough of them..............just posting to show some trades I do, and if I can remember to I will gladly show how I trade out of them in as close to real time as possible. I am predominantly an option writer. I use crude oil, silver, gold, emini S&P, soybeans, coffee, gas, etc. Honestly...
welcome
  • #1,519
  • Edited 2:09pm Nov 13, 2013 1:29pm | Edited 2:09pm
Quoting pipple
great thread. As an experiment over the years I have entered random strike prices and traded out of them as necessary to prove my point.....that when writing options, as long as you stay equal parts aggressive and humble, your problems will not be overwhelming. ....I am currently pricing a new Jan crude strangle, and also looking at Gas puts...... FYI whenever I write something, I am selling them, NOT buying them. I am of the belief that buying options is a suckers game. just my humble opinion. I hope I can keep up and keep posting in this thread...
Hey pipple, it's great to hear from you & I hope you will post as you find time and show us how you trade options. I started the thread specifically to learn from other options traders and I can see you know alot about one thing in particular that I suck at, specifically: how to control your losses by trading out of losing positions. It would be great to follow you through some of those trades in m/l real time.

I agree with you on writing gas puts, had that on my to-do list via UNG when it dipped <$17 but spaced it out, will probably keep looking for a bull put credit spread there as I see ng is falling again. Same idea with crude, but I am waiting - I think there's room below for crude prices.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,520
  • Nov 13, 2013 1:37pm Nov 13, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Greed is good. I might throw small change at FSLR puts, I think that will pull back near term. ...did, bought $52.50 Nov 16 puts for $0.68.
...so, I make these mistakes pretty regularly, it was indeed small change, but when I saw FSLR was going nowhere south, I sold the 11/16 $59.50 puts for $0.30 to lessen my loss .... looks like that at least will work out.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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