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High Probability Trade Setups

  • #41
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:47pm Nov 12, 2013 6:47pm
I am looking at one trade atm. usdcad is stuck between a rock and hard place that should react with a bo.

The yellow line is a weekly TL and the red lines are a hourly rising wedge. if pa breaks below lower red I will be looking for entry point with SL above yellow TL. following pa for exact entry and SL/TP. This has had a few false bo's so need to watch for a true bo bar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 1.png Size: 58 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #42
  • Nov 12, 2013 7:26pm Nov 12, 2013 7:26pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Yes Matt usd/cad may very well be heading south as an 8 lot sell order I have

in on the nzd/cad is looking to start coming up now and I noticed a bit of a

reverse correlation like the eur/usd usd/chf,also I noticed this on the aud/cad

paired with the gbp/aud....anyhoo let's see how this usd/cad plays out shall we?

tomorrow is wednesday brokers swap rate collection day so we should see a couple

of moves on a couple of pairs...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4.png Size: 149 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdm30.png Size: 145 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #43
  • Nov 12, 2013 8:50pm Nov 12, 2013 8:50pm
Ok I am in. UC. It's not a real strong move but it is correlated with other currencies. Asian session doesn't help. My personal system is like scalp at the beginning of these large moves getting the initial rush. TP 25 and SL 12. SOLD 1.0485.

see how the 1st trade of thread goes...
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #44
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:08pm Nov 12, 2013 9:08pm
Just to clarify I am trading this system on demo (lighter risk on real) until I get into the swing of the R:R.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #45
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:26pm Nov 12, 2013 9:26pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting Matts Micro
Ok I am in. UC.
Probably should've waited till the london session to trade the down

move because that's when usd/cad moves the most and it usually

whipsaws and dances around with no clear direction in the asian sessions

let's see how it goes though maybe it's start dropping from now...

I put a 20 lot sell stop order under the tail of the last swing low for

the london session later on it''s right by a tpoc level so maybe it'll

go further when or if it gets there...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdm30.png Size: 152 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #46
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:38pm Nov 12, 2013 9:38pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
I also have my eye on the cad/jpy pair right now it's forming a double top on the 4hr

but the 30m chart shows the roughest 33 pips down a pair can attempt to make and

go forward with....Being that there is a weekly high close by I'm assuming if price goes

down 33 pips and breaks all them levels then it should be a nice ride down further south...I

want to see how it goes in london session and I'll attempt to catch it in tomorrows Ny

and asian sessions.. The 30m and 4hr money flow index says it should go down in the london session

but I'm wary against trading against all them levels so I'll wait to see if it'll break the weekly

high or if it will indeed go for the support that lies underneath....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpym30.png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpyh4.png Size: 89 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #47
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:44pm Nov 12, 2013 9:44pm
Quoting Owl
{quote} Probably should've waited till the london session to trade the down move because that's when usd/cad moves the most and it usually whipsaws and dances around with no clear direction in the asian sessions let's see how it goes though maybe it's start dropping from now... I put a 20 lot sell stop order under the tail of the last swing low for the london session later on {image}
yah probably right. live and learn

My entries have never been fantastic. I tend to jump in a few pips further out than I like but I have found if I wait for the full bo bar to be drawn my SL can be too far away from major resistance and hence gets knocked out. it's the danger of playing with scalping sizes at larger tf bo's. Not to mention getting caught in false bo's which is what may have happen here.

Not liking it. EU and AU bo in opposite direction ...trade against me n u might win
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #48
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:53pm Nov 12, 2013 10:53pm
I'm not sure what the markets are doing atm. Just to show where I am I will show how I took this trade.

The charts I am using are just over 1000 ticks per candle. I have found that the trend lines on these charts are more accurate than normal timed charts. It is rare that there is a false BO though it is common to look like a BO on timed charts the tick charts TL's haven't been broken. It is also rare for BO's to go back into the ranged area on these charts like today. The eclipse is where I took the usdcad trade that had the same BO. It maybe one of those days I should just forget it and go for a walk
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 19.jpg Size: 211 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 7.jpg Size: 205 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #49
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:58pm Nov 12, 2013 10:58pm
Quoting Owl
I also have my eye on the cad/jpy pair right now it's forming a double top on the 4hr but the 30m chart shows the roughest 33 pips down a pair can attempt to make and go forward with....Being that there is a weekly high close by I'm assuming if price goes down 33 pips and breaks all them levels then it should be a nice ride down further south...I want to see how it goes in london session and I'll attempt to catch it in tomorrows Ny and asian sessions.. The 30m and 4hr money flow index says it should go down in the london session but I'm wary against...
hey owl, this is how i see this set up on cadjpy http://screencast.com/t/fXRwzX2EXx
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #50
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:07pm Nov 12, 2013 11:07pm
Quoting Matts Micro
I'm not sure what the markets are doing atm. Just to show where I am I will show how I took this trade. The charts I am using are just over 1000 ticks per candle. I have found that the trend lines on these charts are more accurate than normal timed charts. It is rare that there is a false BO though it is common to look like a BO on timed charts the tick charts TL's haven't been broken. It is also rare for BO's to go back into the ranged area on these charts like today. The eclipse is where I took the usdcad trade that had the same BO. It maybe one...
Hi MM
Like what you started here.
Pls tell me which FX brokers offer tick charts as charting alternatives I've tried Renko and Range but would like to see what edge Tick charts can give I'm looking at automated systems in the future.
Thanks.
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #51
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:19pm Nov 12, 2013 11:19pm
Quoting Redddz
{quote} hey owl, this is how i see this set up on cadjpy http://screencast.com/t/fXRwzX2EXx
Nice looking chart Redddz. I will be keeping an eye on this set as its my style of trade.


Resistance TL's have kept USDCAD trade in play for now but is currently anti-trend.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #52
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:28pm Nov 12, 2013 11:28pm
Quoting Intrepidpips
{quote} Hi MM Like what you started here. Pls tell me which FX brokers offer tick charts as charting alternatives I've tried Renko and Range but would like to see what edge Tick charts can give I'm looking at automated systems in the future. Thanks.
Hey Intrepid.

Cheers. The Tick chart is a download and I can't remember where I got it from. It's called "iTick" search online and try youtube too. If you can't find it PM me and I will try to dig it up for you. It is unfortunately an offline chart so I'm not sure about running EA's on it. Though if you manage to get one going let me know how you did it
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #53
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:58pm Nov 12, 2013 11:58pm
I'm looking at GBPUSD atm
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD HTF LOOK.png Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: HD BREWING.png Size: 96 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #54
  • Nov 13, 2013 12:19am Nov 13, 2013 12:19am
Quoting Intrepidpips
I'm looking at GBPUSD atm {image} {image}
At a glance there seems to be bullish divergence on your 4hr long term view. But bearish divergence on your 30min. I don't trade often with Divergence but just to clarify a reversal or continuation trend so I'm not sure.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #55
  • Nov 13, 2013 12:34am Nov 13, 2013 12:34am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Nice looking chart Redddz. I will be keeping an eye on this set as its my style of trade. Resistance TL's have kept USDCAD trade in play for now but is currently anti-trend.
i have my eyes on ucad too.
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #56
  • Nov 13, 2013 12:38am Nov 13, 2013 12:38am
Quoting Redddz
{quote} i have my eyes on ucad too.
here is a chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-13_1337.png Size: 54 KB
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #57
  • Nov 13, 2013 12:41am Nov 13, 2013 12:41am
Quoting Intrepidpips
I'm looking at GBPUSD atm {image} {image}
Heres the same tick chart type with GU. Not sure if it's going to challenge the TL or drop. a lot of GBP news coming up in les then hour. I'm not big on news trading so will wait till the dust settles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 3.jpg Size: 205 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #58
  • Nov 13, 2013 12:53am Nov 13, 2013 12:53am
Quoting Owl
{quote} Thanks Matt Yes sir I should've put more pending orders on the swing low last night because I sleep during london and I usually place pending order in the direction I want and like for it to go but yes I still do got my 4 sell trades in and I just placed a pending order under the tail of the last low..Price did indeed pierce .97500 although it's come back to around that area now... I felt good all along about this setup because price has broke retested and kept going on off it's weekly low along with the 40 day average... Here they are though:...
Watch out for 9706, both daily and 4hour buy levels line up to-the-pip.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DBPnn.png Size: 31 KB
  • #59
  • Nov 13, 2013 1:14am Nov 13, 2013 1:14am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Heres the same tick chart type with GU. Not sure if it's going to challenge the TL or drop. a lot of GBP news coming up in les then hour. I'm not big on news trading so will wait till the dust settles. {image}

I'm all mixed up now saw the H4 RD but the Stoch is already pointing south again, but then H1 too is showing RD which may have run it's course because it seems the Support turned resistance held; but I'm in, short not risking the R2R mm on this one cos of the uncertainty of news release
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #60
  • Nov 13, 2013 1:19am Nov 13, 2013 1:19am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Watch out for 9706, both daily and 4hour buy levels line up to-the-pip. {image}
its a nice setup but it can get down for another retest but as per cad index i will be willing to take this long trade on the level you mentioned

and also check this as this is valid trade for me now http://screencast.com/t/5XmeEsjGg
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AC.png Size: 43 KB
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
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