Lockhart: a taper 'could very well take place' next month | Forex Factory

  • Lockhart: a taper 'could very well take place' next month

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Expo33
Nov 12, 2013 7:12pm
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Quoting Guest
^
1. A taper is not impossible. The numbers are solid and the Fed don't need a row of green lights to step on the gas...a small Taper will come sooner than later, nothing drastic, but will allow for the much needed correction in the Equity markets, and a great deal more of USD strength.

2. There is a solution, cut spending, which will be done, as entitlement programs in the States are dated and must be reformed. Chances of another shutdown are not as likely as the media makes it seem.

3. The Media + Fed are idiots. They dramatize situations...
#2) Cut spending?? You think with Dems in office they will cut entitlements? Creating a culture of dependency is what got Obama in office for a second term. Dependency = control = votes.

But you're right cutting spending is a solution, it just isn't going to happen. We live in a culture where spending and short term indulgence is king from families to government. Americans dont save and neither does the government so we just keep spending and when we lose our home we just blame big banks,the governement or a rich person instead of looking in the mirror and taking responsibility. The government is just a bigger version of the American family
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michaelpelly
Nov 12, 2013 11:47pm
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"This time will be different". "This is the new economy" :-)

The magic "tapering" word seems to have started the market engine again. Dollar will push higher, cable and euro will push lower and when Dec-2013 the FOMC meeting comes-up empty - the old game goes again all over and over - the retailers will start furious shorting on EUR and GBP while the pairs push higher...:-).

It is like funky computer game ;-).
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Boy Wonder
Nov 12, 2013 4:27pm
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Quoting Guest

We are in an equity bubble as a result of this cheap, Fed printing money, and they know they must end it.
1. Who says we're in an equity bubble
2. Who says the Fed thinks we're in an equity bubble
3. Who says the Fed even cares if we're in an equity bubble

I'm not saying we are; I'm not saying we aren't. I'm saying, the answers to the above 3 questions are not known; therefore if that's the basis of your argument, your argument is not as strong as it could be.
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ud1nh0
Nov 12, 2013 8:46am
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twitter source is too easy to understand. simple and easy
like dis +1
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Faucon
Nov 12, 2013 10:25am
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Debt was , is and will always be the main problem ,

if they have a solution why did they raise x times before acting ? ,

unemployment is far worst than the numbers wants us to believe ,

what kind of jobs are we talking , Mc Donald's part-time jobs ? or Boeing industries ?
in the 2 cases you are out of the datas , but wich one will make you a consumer ...

if the situation was really better , why the consumer confidence is always below the more pessimistic view , because people in real life knows what is life out of the Fed's ivory tower .
And now it is a battle to have the lowest low-cost currency , so europe has done 0.25 , US wants an expensive euro , so what is the solution to have a cheaper Dollar .

Sorry for my English , wish you all the best for your trading .
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shbabakhter
Nov 12, 2013 9:02am
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A taper is impossible in next month as CPI (Inflation) is down again and Unemployment rate is higher. Most important this is this .....US government may shut down again coz lawyers has raises the debt ceiling .....they dont have any sloution of this problem......
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TradeMasterG
Nov 12, 2013 9:22am
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The taper won't happen because we are nowhere near the Fed's inflation or unemployment goals. Will a taper happen when the expectation is that Washington is going to do battle again and play chicken between the political parties about the debt ceiling in January and February? The Fed was reluctant to tapper in October with the political threat, but this time the US was put on a rating watch. If the political wrangling goes too far, the US might very well be downgraded this time. So, why would Lockhardt be so irresponsible to flap his gums about the tapper. Does Janet Yellen agree with him that a change in direction is going to happen before she takes the reins? Nonsense came out of Lockhart's mouth today!
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Spreadbetter
Nov 13, 2013 1:12am
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A "guess shop"? All trading is educated guessing; we can only probably, with a degree of certainty based on previous patterns/market behaviour, take an educated guess which way price is headed, that's as good as it gets. You wouldn't know that as you've never actually traded in any market other than your local food market.

Quoting Guest
A guess shop and the dailyfx team are just another bunch of serial alarmists - apart from being political jingoists. In my opinion there are many gamblers in the game and that is a pity because knowledge of price dynamics rather than a gambling spirit is what it takes to be in the winning minority. Political jingoism is a definite no no in currency trading. But folks will learn over time - a word is enough for the wise.
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janknoah
Nov 12, 2013 8:33am
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There is improvement in the job count, but employment still high. Guess taper would be a gradual process
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Trader#4525
Nov 12, 2013 9:29am
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Quoting shbabakhter
A taper is impossible in next month as CPI (Inflation) is down again and Unemployment rate is higher. Most important this is this .....US government may shut down again coz lawyers has raises the debt ceiling .....they dont have any sloution of this problem......

^
1. A taper is not impossible. The numbers are solid and the Fed don't need a row of green lights to step on the gas...a small Taper will come sooner than later, nothing drastic, but will allow for the much needed correction in the Equity markets, and a great deal more of USD strength.

2. There is a solution, cut spending, which will be done, as entitlement programs in the States are dated and must be reformed. Chances of another shutdown are not as likely as the media makes it seem.

3. The Media + Fed are idiots. They dramatize situations and don't know when to pull the plug. the US economy is improving nicely and gradually, the Fed must exit. The shutdown did not hurt data as most of the media thought it would be devastating.

4. USD strength should have been reigning supreme since September. Taper On.
Reply
Trader#4525
Nov 12, 2013 11:25am
Permalink
Quoting Faucon
Debt was , is and will always be the main problem ,

if they have a solution why did they raise x times before acting ? ,

unemployment is far worst than the numbers wants us to believe ,

what kind of jobs are we talking , Mc Donald's part-time jobs ? or Boeing industries ?
in the 2 cases you are out of the datas , but wich one will make you a consumer ...

if the situation was really better , why the consumer confidence is always below the more pessimistic view , because people in real life knows what is life out of the Fed's ivory tower .
And...

Don't understand why blokes mention debt in the Taper talk debates. The Fed uses a few metrics to gauge economic strength and debt is NOT one of them. Housing, Employment, Inflation.

Debt to GDP ratio is therefore IRRELEVANT to these discussions.

Like I said they will taper, and that will push the dollar higher whether the Fed want that or not. At some point you cannot artificially keep interest rates low and expect no consequences to come of it.

We are in an equity bubble as a result of this cheap, Fed printing money, and they know they must end it. They may not be happy with a cut in housing demands as a result of interest rate increases due to a stronger dollar but so be it.

I believe they'd rather let the economy build slowly as it is now gaining traction as opposed to pumping up risk on assets to boost the wealthy's egos a bit more : )
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boon2
Nov 12, 2013 6:54pm
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Anyone banking on a FED taper next month or the month after that will be surly disappointed!

Fed will never taper LOL
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Trader#B364
Nov 13, 2013 12:54am
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A guess shop and the dailyfx team are just another bunch of serial alarmists - apart from being political jingoists. In my opinion there are many gamblers in the game and that is a pity because knowledge of price dynamics rather than a gambling spirit is what it takes to be in the winning minority. Political jingoism is a definite no no in currency trading. But folks will learn over time - a word is enough for the wise.
Reply
Trader#F2E0
Nov 13, 2013 2:04am
Permalink
1) No matter how you label your guess it is still that: a guess with 50% chances.
2) S/D or greed/fear in your local market work the same for any market because both are just that: markets.
3) Debt to GDP ratio is irrelevant to discussions such as this one and that's why these discussions are irrelevant wrt trading since both affect 24/7 the price we trade.

Really nothing of value to see here, carry on.
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Trader#AC37
Nov 13, 2013 3:18am
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Quoting Guest
1) No matter how you label your guess it is still that: a guess with 50% chances.
2) S/D or greed/fear in your local market work the same for any market because both are just that: markets.
3) Debt to GDP ratio is irrelevant to discussions such as this one and that's why these discussions are irrelevant wrt trading since both affect 24/7 the price we trade.

Really nothing of value to see here, carry on.
Much obliged sir - and clearly this is not a strain of thinking that common or popular in the Forex. It is nevertheless a crucial mindset for anyone expecting to do more than hope to trade for a living. Laudable your point of this market being like any other - for some strange reason that is so difficult to get across to people and there is this tendency to think there is something extra different about currency trading unseen anywhere else - most sad.

My point of departure from you is slight and it is simply that the "guessing" need not stay at 50/50 and can be improved through mathematical applications that recognize the variable "price" as determinable within a given range in stochastic space. Otherwise I would say spot on and more grease to your elbows people really need to know this.
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Trader#3F2B
Nov 13, 2013 5:32am
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looking at stock market futures (FTSE, S&P, Dow) there seems to be a fear that the tapir is really coming, and maybe Yellen will spill some beans. In fact the tapir might be so big that traders will be astounded (just a hunch) by the sheer size of this animal. watch wall street open.
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Trader#4525
Nov 13, 2013 6:44am
Permalink
Quoting Boy Wonder
1. Who says we're in an equity bubble
2. Who says the Fed thinks we're in an equity bubble
3. Who says the Fed even cares if we're in an equity bubble

I'm not saying we are; I'm not saying we aren't. I'm saying, the answers to the above 3 questions are not known; therefore if that's the basis of your argument, your argument is not as strong as it could be.

Fed President Dennis Lockhart said yesterday (known as a notorious dove):

A tapering "could very well take place" in December -"I don't think the circumstances rule out a consideration in December," he said and added - the January meeting "could turn out to be more complicated" because of fiscal policy concerns, but did not rule out a move at this time.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said (notorious hawk) that monetary accommodation “becomes riskier by the day.”

The Fed aren't going to explicitly say they are in a bubble, that's foolish of you if you believe that. In my view, they are hinting at it, and are also hinting at the willingness of a taper (a dove seeing the light).

I don't think a December taper will happen, I believe January.

Quoting Expo33
#2) Cut spending?? You think with Dems in office they will cut entitlements? Creating a culture of dependency is what got Obama in office for a second term. Dependency = control = votes.

But you're right cutting spending is a solution, it just isn't going to happen. We live in a culture where spending and short term indulgence is king from families to government. Americans dont save and neither does the government so we just keep spending and when we lose our home we just blame big banks,the governement or a rich person instead of looking in the...

^Yes unfortunately Dems buy votes it seems with the current system. I believe it needs reform and that is how a cut in spending will take place...in my view of course.
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