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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #601
  • Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:19am Jun 30, 2006 11:36am | Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:19am
Friday 6/30/2006 12:30 ET

TS #113 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.2635

Stop is 2.2656

Target #1 is 2.2175

Risk is max. 36 pips

Reward is min. 445 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 12.4 to 1

In terms of reward : risk ratio and probability of success, we would rate this a good trade. It may require six or seven days, or it could happen very quickly.

For research purposes only.

Commentary:

7/3/2006 12:30 ET

This currency pair is a big mover at times. This trade has progressed about 100 pips down to 2.2530 so far, and is on track to reach its target hundreds of pips further down.

7/4/2006 10:30 ET

GBP/CHF fell to 2.2520 at 13:20 ET on July 3rd, then retraced all the way up to 2.2630 at 9:00 ET this morning.

True to form, this currency pair is moving in a larger range than any other right now. We think it is headed up to 2.2635 to 2.2640, at which point it will reverse and head south again.

7/4/2006 10:00 ET

As predicted, GBP/CHF reversed at 2.2632 and fell 112 pips to 2.2520. It should bounce, and then continue its downward trend towards 2.2500 and below.

Wednesday July 5 at 12:15 ET

As predicted GBP/CHF bounced all the way up to 2.2647 at 11:00 this morning. This is a top. It will come straigt down from here (as straight as anything moves in this market) towards its target of 2.2500 and below.
  • #602
  • Jul 3, 2006 1:10am Jul 3, 2006 1:10am
Hi itme,


Do you think we can re-enter eurcad right now?
  • #603
  • Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:08am Jul 3, 2006 3:54am | Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:08am
As I said in my commentary, it was probably a good short entry at about 1.4260, which was the price when you posted your enquiry. It has since fallen to 1.4220. I am still holding the sell position, but a complete downwards wave could be fairly near, followed by a potentially large retracement.

I hope you sold at 1.4260, and are able to exit at 1.4200 or lower.

Commentary


We were stopped out when the price rose to 1.4287. Re-entry at a strategic point would be a good idea, as this trade has huge potential. The current price of 1.4260 may be the best that will be available, or it may rise to near 1.4287 again."

Actually, upon further study the price rose to 1.4303 after the above comment. I suspect that 1.4303 will be the trend high, and the price will not rise above this price again.

Re-entries should be at the top of upward retracement waves if possible to minimize risk and maximize gain.


7/3/2006 11:20 ET

The price did rise to 1.4266 after the last comment and is now falling. That would have been a good re-entry opportunity. The price is now 1.4230 and likely to continue plummeting from here as both EUR/USD and USD/CAD fall.

Wednesday July 5 at 12:00 ET

EUR/CAD bounced up 30 pips to 1.4260 and then plummetted as predicted to 1.4100. It then bounced up to 1.4168, but should resume its downwards path towards 1.3950 and lower after it has finished resting.
  • #604
  • Jul 3, 2006 10:41am Jul 3, 2006 10:41am
Any updates on this pair? It seems to be rising through the roof hehe.



Quoting itme
Wednesday 6/28/2006 17:00 ET

TS#89H - Sell EUR/JPY at 146.25

"What are your thoughts on this pair now?"

Quote from Itme before: "We expect EUR/JPY to descend somewhat, then rise to approx. 146.50 before turning around. EUR/USD will probably rise, which will cause EUR/JPY to rise."


This pair did as expected. However, it rose because USD/JPY rose, not because EUR/USD rose.

EUR/JPY rose to 146.60, then fell to 145.65, from which point it retraced rapidly to 146.25, which constitutes a re-entry opportunity for a long short trade, with a target of 144.75.

Sell EUR/JPY at 146.25

Stop would be 146.41

Target is 144.75

Risk is 20 pips

Reward is 146 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 7.3 to 1

__________________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

Friday 6/23/2006 15:00 ET

TS#89G - Sell EUR/JPY at 145.83
Stop is 145.95
Risk is only 26 pips
Target #1 is 144.40
Reward is 139 pips
Reward: risk ratio is 5.3 to 1
(nb. - this trade was stopped out by a rise to 146.61 on 6/27)
______________________

Thursday 6/22/2006 13:30 ET
TS#89F - Sell EUR/JPY - stay out of trade for now
We were stopped out on this trade when the EUR/JPY went all the way up to 146.26. We believe that it will rise one more time. Then there will be an excellent entry opportunity.

Wednesday 6/21/2006 11:15 ET
We were stopped out on our last short trade by 5 pips. However, we have a good re-entry opportunity.
TS#89F - Re-Entry - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 145.30 - 145.50
Stop is 1.4573
Target is 143.80
Risk is max. 47 pips
Reward is min. 146 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.1 to 1

Commentary: EUR/JPY fell to 145.50 at 11:15 ET 6/29, then bounced about 40% or 30 pips up, then descended to about the same level. This trade is progressing well so far. EUR/JPY rose late on 6/29 to 146.14, then started down again. It should make good progress now.
<!-- / message -->
  • #605
  • Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:02am Jul 3, 2006 11:19am | Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:02am
7/3/2006 12:15 ET

EUR/CHF has risen strongly to a high probability reversal zone.

Our analysis suggests that EUR/CHF will rise one more time to give us an excellent short opportunity at about 1.5685 - 1.5700.

Commentary:

July 4, 2006 20:30 ET

As predicted, EUR/CHF rose to 1.5686 and then plummeted to 1.5647. It should come down a bit further, then a corrective wave will occur, and then the price will procede down to 1.5530 approx.

July 5, 2006 12:00 ET

EUR/CHF bounced straight up from 1.5647 and not only bounced a bit, but went up 55 pips to a new high of 1.5702. Our analysis indicates that this is the ultimate high of the two week uptrend, and it is downwards from here 167 pips to 1.5535.
  • #606
  • Jul 3, 2006 11:36am Jul 3, 2006 11:36am
I think you got your pairs mixed up. those numbers does not make any sense for the EURJPY pair.

Quoting itme
7/3/2006 12:15 ET


Our analysis suggests that EUR/JPY will rise one more time to give us an excellent short opportunity at about 1.5685 - 1.5700.
  • #607
  • Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:10am Jul 3, 2006 12:26pm | Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:10am
7/3/2006 1:15 ET

TS # 114 Sell EUR/JPY at 147.00 - 147.17

USD/JPY is rising in the form of a retracement of the recent 260 pip decline up to an expected 38.2% + retracement level of 115.10 to 115.50. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is completing an upwards bounce after the first leg of its new downward trend.

This has brought EUR/JPY to a high level. It is likely to rise one more time only to about 147.00 - 147.15, which will be the beginning of a long downwards trend.

Sell EUR/JPY at 147.00 - 147.17

Stop is 147.23

Target is 143.00

For research purposes only.

Commentary:

Tuesday, July 4 at 10:15 ET

EUR/JPY fell to 146.50 at 8:00 ET this morning, and looks as if it will rise again to about 146.85 to 147.00 as USD/JPY rises to 115.15 to 115.25 in a retracement wave, before EUR/JPY resumes its downwards trend.

Tuesday, July 4 at 21:00 ET

As predicted, EUR/JPY rose from 146.50 to a high of 147.27. driven by a strong rise in USD/JPY while EUR/USD marked time. We expect a strong movement down now.

Wednesday, July 5 at 11:45 ET

As predicted, EUR/JPY proceeded down strongly from 147.27 down 72 pips to a low of 146.55 on July 5 at 4:00 ET and then reversed back up to exactly 147.27 once again, from which we expect it to fall strongly once again. Our target is 146.56.
  • #608
  • Jul 3, 2006 1:23pm Jul 3, 2006 1:23pm
Thanks for Eur/Cad explanation itme.
  • #609
  • Jul 3, 2006 1:35pm Jul 3, 2006 1:35pm
Could one of you guys be so nice and explain itmes approach to a rookie? Just two or three sentences, or point to some post where this is explained....It is still a mistery to me how he want's to accomplish those "big" targets (like 200, 300 and even more pips). My main question is:


How long does it usually take to hit these targets?

Thanks for any help!

Peter.
(By the way I have read over 20 pages of this thread now, but can't find any hints on his system - I saw at thread number 1 he's explaining that he is using WAVEs as his technical tool? Elliot Waves?)
  • #610
  • Jul 4, 2006 3:03am Jul 4, 2006 3:03am
Hi Petercross,

There are some clues through out the thread. Yes they are Elliot wave theroists, He also uses analysis of their own design. Itme has not disclosed his method, for reasons unknown as well. That is fine, it is his Journal and we are only invited guests here. Perhaps over time he may give more details, perhaps not. It is an experiment of his disign and of his intent.

Their journal entries should never be construed as buying or selling signals. I think Itme has made that clear on numerous occasions. The entries are their own thoughts and ideas.

Hope that helps, Scott


Quoting petercross
Could one of you guys be so nice and explain itmes approach to a rookie? Just two or three sentences, or point to some post where this is explained....It is still a mistery to me how he want's to accomplish those "big" targets (like 200, 300 and even more pips). My main question is:


How long does it usually take to hit these targets?

Thanks for any help!

Peter.
(By the way I have read over 20 pages of this thread now, but can't find any hints on his system - I saw at thread number 1 he's explaining that he is using WAVEs as his technical tool? Elliot Waves?)
  • #611
  • Edited Jul 5, 2006 1:24pm Jul 4, 2006 11:55am | Edited Jul 5, 2006 1:24pm
Tuesday July 4, 13:00 ET

TS #108A - Exit Sell AUD/CAD at .8225 to .8235

Our latest analysis indicates that this currency pair has a medium probability of reversing at the current price approx. and rising to a target of .8350 to .8375, for a profit of about 115 to 160 pips.

Exit and consider entering a long position.

More details here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...FCAD#post70230

For research purposes only.
  • #612
  • Jul 4, 2006 5:25pm Jul 4, 2006 5:25pm
July 4, 2006 18:15

General reversal is at hand. One can sell USD/JPY or any of its cross currency pairs and gain a potential of large rewards with small risk:

Sell USD/JPY at 115.15

Sell EUR/JPY at 147.15

Sell CAD/JPY at 103.80

Sell GBP/JPY at 212.32

For research purposes only.
  • #613
  • Jul 5, 2006 11:46am Jul 5, 2006 11:46am
Wednesday July 5 at 12:30 ET

TS# 115 Sell GBP/JPY at 212.30 - 212.47

Stop is 212.61

Target #1 is 208.50

Risk is max. 40 pips

Reward is min. 371 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.3 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #614
  • Edited 11:14pm Jul 5, 2006 11:05pm | Edited 11:14pm
I have put a number of comments on the threads above under the heading "commentary" regarding the progress of the various outstanding trades. This way I can monitor the progress of the trades as time permits, I can practise predicting the behavior of the market, and we can monitor my level of success.

My favorite impending trade opportunity is shorting GBP/USD at about 1.8360 to 1.8370 with an immediate target of about 1.8220

For more details, read this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...112B#post70345
  • #615
  • Jul 5, 2006 11:32pm Jul 5, 2006 11:32pm
Quoting itme
I have put a number of comments on the threads above under the heading "commentary" regarding the progress of the various outstanding trades. This way I can monitor the progress of the trades as time permits, I can practise predicting the behavior of the market, and we can monitor my level of success.

My favorite impending trade opportunity is shorting GBP/USD at about 1.8360 to 1.8370 with an immediate target of about 1.8220

For more details, read this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...112B#post70345
hi there..
ive follow some of ur prediction and its cool...
this time u looks so confidence that g/u will down...
im wondering there will be a news in uk 3 hours from now i think..
n the forecast are good... what do u think bout that news... pound will down?
  • #616
  • Jul 5, 2006 11:53pm Jul 5, 2006 11:53pm
Sorry, except for very major news, I just ignore it. I have too much to deal with and the market usually seems to ignore it anyways. Is the news tonight especially significant?
  • #617
  • Jul 6, 2006 12:00am Jul 6, 2006 12:00am
Quoting itme
Sorry, except for very major news, I just ignore it. I have too much to deal with and the market usually seems to ignore it anyways. Is the news tonight especially significant?
im not so good in fundamental analysis...
but this is the news in tha next 3 hours

<table class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">Thu. 07/06</td> <td class="alt1">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2098" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2098" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures overall economic activity by combining ten indicators including factory workweek, new orders for consumer goods, new orders for nondefense capital goods, stock prices, initial jobless claims, vendor performance, building permits, money supply and consumer expectations.

</fieldset>





</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2099" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2099" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures present relative economic activity. A rising Coincident Index signals an expansion phase while a falling reading is a sign of a contraction phase.

</fieldset>


</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">4:00pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">E-12</td> <td class="alt1">Retail PMI</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">[img]images/misc/mi_med.gif[/img]</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">56.8</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">56.3</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2100" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2100" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Retail Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the health of the retail sector. It's derived from a monthly survey of purchasing managers where respondents indicate whether their organization's activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month for output, purchases, employment, inventories, orders, and prices. An index reading above 50 indicates sector expansion. PMI is believed to be a leading indicator because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance.

</fieldset>


</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">4:30pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">UK</td> <td class="alt1">Industrial Production m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">[img]images/misc/mi_med.gif[/img]</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.4%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.6%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2101" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2101" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the monthly change in total output of factories, mines, and utilities. A rising trend generally indicates a strengthening economy.

</fieldset>


</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">4:30pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">UK</td> <td class="alt1">Manufacturing Production m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">[img]images/misc/mi_low.gif[/img]</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.3%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.2%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2102" style="" align="center"> [read]</td></tr></thead></table>
  • #618
  • Jul 6, 2006 1:53am Jul 6, 2006 1:53am
Quoting eqnaz
im not so good in fundamental analysis...
but this is the news in tha next 3 hours

<table class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">Thu. 07/06</td> <td class="alt1">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2098" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2098" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures overall economic activity by combining ten indicators including factory workweek, new orders for consumer goods, new orders for nondefense capital goods, stock prices, initial jobless claims, vendor performance, building permits, money supply and consumer expectations.

</fieldset>





</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2099" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2099" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures present relative economic activity. A rising Coincident Index signals an expansion phase while a falling reading is a sign of a contraction phase.

</fieldset>


</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">4:00pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">E-12</td> <td class="alt1">Retail PMI</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">[img]images/misc/mi_med.gif[/img]</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">56.8</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">56.3</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2100" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2100" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Retail Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the health of the retail sector. It's derived from a monthly survey of purchasing managers where respondents indicate whether their organization's activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month for output, purchases, employment, inventories, orders, and prices. An index reading above 50 indicates sector expansion. PMI is believed to be a leading indicator because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance.

</fieldset>


</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">4:30pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">UK</td> <td class="alt1">Industrial Production m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">[img]images/misc/mi_med.gif[/img]</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.4%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.6%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2101" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2101" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the monthly change in total output of factories, mines, and utilities. A rising trend generally indicates a strengthening economy.

</fieldset>


</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">4:30pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">UK</td> <td class="alt1">Manufacturing Production m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">[img]images/misc/mi_low.gif[/img]</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.3%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.2%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2102" style="" align="center"> [read]</td></tr></thead></table>
I am no expert on news but I would suspect that the Bank of England Rate Decision at 11 GMT and the Euro Rate Decision at 11:45 GMT would be far more important and depending on the outcome could cause a significant market movement. The things that you showed are probably far less likely to cause any significant effect.
  • #619
  • Edited 12:49pm Jul 6, 2006 5:28am | Edited 12:49pm
Thursday July 6 at 6:00 ET

TS# 116 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4200

Stop is 1.4212

Target #1 is 1.3950

Risk is 22 pips

Reward is 240 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 10.9 to 1

For research purposes only.

This trade signal is late arriving, but it is clearly given by our trading system, so I will include it for research purposes. It is a very favorable, precise, high reliability trade. The entry point is the intersection of three targeting lines. The pattern is unambivalent. Enter at 1.4185 or as high as possible.

Commentary:

There were two opportunities to enter this short trade of EUR/CAD at 1.4193, just 7 pips short of the recent high and ideal entry price of 1.4200.

It is very common for the market to put in a double or triple top, providing multiple entry opportunities to a desirable trade.

Thursday July 6, 1:00 ET

There is an opportunity right now to short EUR/CAD at 1.4205. This is an ideal low risk / high reward trading opportunity. The stop would only need to be about at 1.4216. With a target of 1.3950, the reward / risk ratio is very high. ps - the stop needs to be a little higher, at 1.4223
  • #620
  • Edited 1:31pm Jul 6, 2006 7:54am | Edited 1:31pm
Thursday July 6 at 8:45 ET

TS# 114 Sell EUR/JPY at 147.30 to 147.50

Previous Trade Signals and commentary:

7/3/2006 1:15 ET

TS # 114 Sell EUR/JPY at 147.00 - 147.17

USD/JPY is rising in the form of a retracement of the recent 260 pip decline up to an expected 38.2% + retracement level of 115.10 to 115.50. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is completing an upwards bounce after the first leg of its new downward trend.

This has brought EUR/JPY to a high level. It is likely to rise one more time only to about 147.00 - 147.15, which will be the beginning of a long downwards trend.

Sell EUR/JPY at 147.00 - 147.17
Stop is 147.23
Target is 143.00

For research purposes only.

Commentary:

Tuesday, July 4 at 10:15 ET

EUR/JPY fell to 146.50 at 8:00 ET this morning, and looks as if it will rise again to about 146.85 to 147.00 as USD/JPY rises to 115.15 to 115.25 in a retracement wave, before EUR/JPY resumes its downwards trend.

Tuesday, July 4 at 21:00 ET

As predicted, EUR/JPY rose from 146.50 to a high of 147.27. driven by a strong rise in USD/JPY while EUR/USD marked time. We expect a strong movement down now.

Wednesday, July 5 at 11:45 ET

As predicted, EUR/JPY proceeded down strongly from 147.27 down 72 pips to a low of 146.55 on July 5 at 4:00 ET and then reversed back up to exactly 147.27 once again, from which we expect it to fall strongly once again. Our target is 146.56.

Thursday, July 6 at 13:30 ET

Since selling at 147.40, EUR/JPY has fallen 80 pips to 146.62 and then bounced up 55 pips to 147.18. Now that several days have been spent in this 75 pip range, EUR/JPY is probably nearing the time for a big break either up or down. Our bets are on down, drawn down by a big fall in EUR/USD.

<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
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