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  • #1,481
  • Nov 10, 2013 1:27am Nov 10, 2013 1:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} true dat, there are bubblicious stocks all around, and I am keeping powder dry to catch a breakdown. Some of these pigs are gonna break so hard even a modest stake will pay out huge. When, though?....timing is everything...
APA is very very soon, looking to take a position wed/thur in the coming week
  • #1,482
  • Nov 10, 2013 2:57am Nov 10, 2013 2:57am
looking for credit spreads on upcoming earnings plays, I see Pandora, earnings out 11/21, may consider

sell 11/22 $25 put @ $1.25, buy 12/06 $24 put @ $1.15, net $0.10 credit. P lt @ $26.76 - I think she will hold > $25 b4 earnings
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,483
  • Nov 10, 2013 3:07am Nov 10, 2013 3:07am
Quoting The Fool
looking for credit spreads
GMCR out 11/20, say sell 11/22 $55 put @ $2.83, buy 12/06 $50 put $1.82, net a buck
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,484
  • Nov 10, 2013 3:18am Nov 10, 2013 3:18am
WMT out 11/24, might get a cheap 11/16 strangle to pay, say $75/$80 for $0.19/$0.24, or ~$0.45 net debit, I don't think it will move enough though
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,485
  • Edited 3:49am Nov 10, 2013 3:33am | Edited 3:49am
GOOG, think it will hold $1,000 until the end of the month? sell 11/29 $975 put, buy 12/06 $950 put - looks to be about a buck net credit, will check prices Tuesday

...same thing with PCLN, sell 11/29 $1,000 puts, buy Dec 21 $950 puts - about a wash, need to check prices Tue.

extend these out to Dec 21 to at least catch a hope of yearend selloff, the shit can't go up forever....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,486
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:12am Nov 10, 2013 8:12am
pigs, pigs, pigs....let's see...

CMG: never ate there, never seen one, but I'm sure it deserves to be a $16 billion company. Stock price $250 to $550 this year. Most stock owned by inst. Can we see some December yearend profit taking?

Nov 29 $500 put, sell at $1.61, Dec 21 $450 put, buy at $0.90, net credit $0.70
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,487
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:18am Nov 10, 2013 8:18am
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-e...182756430.html

omg, teens think FB is lame

sell 11/22 $45 put, buy 12/21 $42 put ($0.54/$0.64) - dime net debit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,488
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:21am Nov 10, 2013 8:21am
any idea how to take advantage of the volatility in TSLA with option strategies?
  • #1,489
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:30am Nov 10, 2013 8:30am
Quoting tradewiz
any idea how to take advantage of the volatility in TSLA with option strategies?
are you bullish, bearish, neutral? where do you think TSLA is going? what's your time frame?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,490
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:04am Nov 10, 2013 9:04am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} seems to be a lot of great put trades about to happen, AAPL LVS GOOG PCLN FB, personally i'm looking to take aapl plus TLT long term strangle maybe 3 /4 months out 5 strikes prices out from current levels for around 30-35c' The way the charts look for most of the major corporations we could see the start of a correction of some sort today
I think 10y yield will fall back pretty quick - pq a nebulous term - but I'd bet there's a few bucks to be made long TLT yet this year, good case for a bullish put spread...

say, sell 12/21 TLT $103 puts @ $1.60, buy 12/21 $99 puts @ $0.45, net credit $1.15
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,491
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:48am Nov 10, 2013 9:48am
one for Cecil: AMAT, earnings out 11/14, AMAT lt $17.75

cheap strangle: buy $19 call @ $0.04, buy $17 put @ $0.08, net debit ~$0.15.

One of those ought to go >$0.25 and possibly twice that or more. I'd be bullish AMAT....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,492
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:11am Nov 10, 2013 10:11am
Quoting The Fool
one for Cecil: AMAT, earnings out 11/14, AMAT lt $17.75 cheap strangle: buy $19 call @ $0.04, buy $17 put @ $0.08, net debit ~$0.15. One of those ought to go >$0.25 and possibly twice that or more. I'd be bullish AMAT....
had a look, lots of volume played stock' Its worth a punt at those price but it needs a surprise announcement to blow through a strike price for you to be profitable
  • #1,493
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:00pm Nov 10, 2013 8:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} are you bullish, bearish, neutral? where do you think TSLA is going? what's your time frame?
my guess is a quick snap back to around 150-160 in a week or two and then heading back towards 100 area earlier next year and bounce around 100-150 for the next 12 months. I would not mind owning some stock under 80.

here is my current positions on TSLA
dec-13 butterfly 200c/230c/260c @$.50 debit x1
dec-13 150c @$12.8 debit x1
mar-14 put ratio (1x2) spread 130p/110p @$.80 credit x 1

as the stock sits around 135-140 I am looking to turn the put ratio into a butterfly/broken wing butterfly as it snaps back and roll down the call butterfly into something like 150/170/190 or simply close it for a small profit.
  • #1,494
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:03pm Nov 10, 2013 8:03pm
i read somewhere selling front month straddle on TLT can produce some remarkable yield over the years. anybody ever tried that strategy?
  • #1,495
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:27pm Nov 10, 2013 9:27pm
Quoting tradewiz
{quote} my guess is a quick snap back to around 150-160 in a week or two and then heading back towards 100 area earlier next year and bounce around 100-150 for the next 12 months. I would not mind owning some stock under 80. I am looking to turn the put ratio into a butterfly/broken wing butterfly as it snaps back and roll down the call butterfly into something like 150/170/190 or simply close it for a small profit.
I'll tell you the best way to trade TSLA: 1) Buy a TESLA S. Best to do that in CA where the discounts/tax credits are sweet; 2) amass a large short position - short stock, long puts, etc; 3) A week before an apropos earnings release, set the car on fire and call your local TV news crew. Get some good video and post it on youtube. 4) Cash in when the stock tanks. Spend part of your take on a nice rooftop solar system at your house so you can charge the batteries for free. I hear they are nice cars....

Seriously though, I did little better than break even on TSLA this year. Lost money on long puts earlier and made it back in a bear put spread a couple weeks ago. Your ideas are as good as anything I'd come up with and, given my history, I am reluctant to hold any kind of short TSLA position for very long. I still think there is short money to be made though and I'm on about the same page with an upper range for the stock now at about $160. Here at the end of year I'd bet we see some more selling, lots of large blocks of stock were bought at $50 or less in the Spring, best thing to do is sell and show those fat returns on the '13 books. I've got other fish to fry tho. Good Luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,496
  • Edited 10:27pm Nov 10, 2013 10:12pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting tradewiz
i read somewhere selling front month straddle on TLT can produce some remarkable yield over the years. anybody ever tried that strategy?
I have not been trading TLT consistently enough to comment. I think there's a near term bullish play to be made though - I think I outlined it in a post above. Like this: the 10y Tnote rate will fall back in the remaining weeks of the year, so TLT is looking at a nearterm bottom in the $102.50 to $103.50 range, and a nearterm topend around $107.

TLT's inverse cousin is TBT:

"The investment seeks daily investment results that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Barclays U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index. The fund invests in derivatives that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily return of the index. The index includes all publicly issued, U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than 20 years, are non-convertible, are denominated in U.S. dollars, are rated investment grade, are fixed rate, and have more than $250 million par outstanding. The fund is non-diversified."

TBT has decent volume & tradable options. TBT closed Fri @ $78. Since I like put spreads, I might sell the 11/29 X put and buy Dec 21 X put. I need to see some TBT pullback (it was up 4% Friday) before I nail down the strikes, but I think the 10y note yield will dip back in the 2.55 +/-.05 range within the next week or so....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,497
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:26pm Nov 10, 2013 10:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Here at the end of year I'd bet we see some more selling, lots of large blocks of stock were bought at $50 or less in the Spring, best thing to do is sell and show those fat returns on the '13 books. I've got other fish to fry tho. Good Luck.
re: TSLA, I might have another go at a credit spread:

sell 11/22 $125p @$2.30, buy Dec 21 $100p @ $1.30, net a buck
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,498
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:10am Nov 11, 2013 7:10am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'll tell you the best way to trade TSLA: 1) Buy a TESLA S. Best to do that in CA where the discounts/tax credits are sweet; 2) amass a large short position - short stock, long puts, etc; 3) A week before an apropos earnings release, set the car on fire and call your local TV news crew. Get some good video and post it on youtube. 4) Cash in when the stock tanks. Spend part of your take on a nice rooftop solar system at your house so you can charge the batteries for free. I hear they are nice cars....
that's the best tip i've ever received on a stock trading. it's a shame they don't sell them down under.
  • #1,499
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:33pm Nov 11, 2013 6:33pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101188715?__s...sees%20%27mass

bond market top? I bet the 10y note is back to 2.5x this week.

Nevertheless, I would fund some 2015 TLT long puts selling near puts: sell Dec 21 $101p @ $0.98, buy Jan '15 $80p @ 1.30. We'll see, if the rate goes up the put spread might be had for credit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,500
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:54pm Nov 11, 2013 6:54pm
...or, the same play on TBT calls:

sell Dec 21 $87 calls @ $0.50 buy Jan '15 $120c @ $2.47 (repeat several times in 2014)

If Gartman is right. TBT could go to $120+ by late 2014, would need to see 10y note rates of about 4% then......

will be watching TLT/TBT this week to see if one of these spreads is a go....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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