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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #11,441
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:10am Nov 11, 2013 12:10am
Quoting piprum
{quote} Hello Jan, i see ichimoku clouds in background of your chart, please can you tell me the settings you use the ichimoku, thanks and good trading. I always use wedges for analysis as well.

Hi Piprum,

once I showed a study in my old thread about the success-rate of Icimoku. Success was highest, when you traded Asian markets. For me it is a good indication, that Ichimoku is just one of the self-fulfilling prophecies, because Ichimoku is in Asia very often used.

So you should ideally deal with the standard settings. JMHO
  • #11,442
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:24am Nov 11, 2013 12:24am
Quoting andexQ
Euro Weekly chart about to enter last low volume support zone (springboard area) : {image}

Hi AndexQ,

looking at you MP chart reminds me on shaving my face with boxing gloves on my hands LOL


Look at the picture I have provided:


up to 3080 we face an uphill battle

on the second chart we have a more narrow view:

3260, 3207 uphill battle, then low traded are, but steep uphill battle to overcome 3089



the last two charts show, that we near the end of the distribution curve. Calculating the -2SD of them, we should see 3310 / 3346 as support (when mean reverting procedure applies here)

If I do calculate the -4SD, we get 3177 and 3102. Even when we are not mean reverting but trending on higher TF, the 4SD is most of the time big hurdle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,443
  • Nov 11, 2013 1:06am Nov 11, 2013 1:06am
Quoting piprum
{quote} Hello Jan, i see ichimoku clouds in background of your chart, please can you tell me the settings you use the ichimoku, thanks and good trading. I always use wedges for analysis as well.
Hey, default settings.

Vladimir yes i am looking into EJ short, not entered yet but i might soon.

Interesting infinitus, the main problem i found (if you are trading breakouts only though), is low movement in terms of pips during asian session, which made trading breakouts more profitable mostly during London, but you might be using something else as judgment for entry and exit?
  • #11,444
  • Nov 11, 2013 1:25am Nov 11, 2013 1:25am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Hey, default settings. Vladimir yes i am looking into EJ short, not entered yet but i might soon. Interesting infinitus, the main problem i found (if you are trading breakouts only though), is low movement in terms of pips during asian session, which made trading breakouts more profitable mostly during London, but you might be using something else as judgment for entry and exit?

Hmmm, maybe wrong address here, since I mainly trade countertrend situations.

But anyway, I do not get your question :-(
  • #11,445
  • Nov 11, 2013 1:28am Nov 11, 2013 1:28am
Oh yes i trade counter trend with Ichi too and i agree for that asia does work better.
As for question i meant if you trade anything else with Ichi than breakouts- like counter trend pullbacks which you already said you do
  • #11,446
  • Nov 11, 2013 1:36am Nov 11, 2013 1:36am
GA short 1.7051, tp 8 pips. Tripple top fail, descending bullish wedge broken on downside.

USDCHF short 0.9216
  • #11,447
  • Nov 11, 2013 2:11am Nov 11, 2013 2:11am
a bit of informations:
for the last 6 weeks, I have been trading eurjpy made 21 trades, 11 win, 10 losses, 5 consecutive losses, 4 consecutive wins, bigger trade win in pips +233, bigger trade loss in pips -66, bigger win trade in % +5.54, bigger loss trade in % -1%, total pips made +482, total % made +10.29%.

Mostly they were small losses and small winners, the difference was made only by three trades.

I also trade gbpusd and eurusd, for the same period they generate +9.65% and +4.36%

I hope this information would help someone...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #11,448
  • Nov 11, 2013 2:18am Nov 11, 2013 2:18am
Quoting maestrou
{quote} i never understand this risk aversion play on euro it doesn't make any sense. before in crisis in 2009 everyone was talking about risk aversion and risk appetite but logically it doesn't make any sense to me because when considering taking a more risk should results in more reward but where is the big reward buying euro with rates now 0.25%, so what i mean there is no reward in holding euro in the mean time. AUD and NZD are both good currencies for risk appetite according to their high interest rates.! i would like to hear from you if you...
The rally in the Euro was not only about yield differential, but more so about the European equity markets and general capital flow into Euros as opposed to the USD due to BS that was happening in Washington including the massive QE program by the Fed. Also the Euro has been taking on the role as secondary world reserve currency. There are many themes at play here including the hope (false?) the the Eurozone is recovering (Yeah Right).

Anyway, regardless of all that, the topic of my post was about the Euro/Yen. The Yen is and has been very closely correlated with risk. Risk appetite is Yen negative and risk aversion is Yen positive. This is not just an opinion, but rather a fact as can be clearly seen in the charts. My point was that if the market develops a risk aversion sentiment then the Yen will find a bid as risk carry trades unwind and that will be Euro/Yen negative.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,449
  • Nov 11, 2013 2:23am Nov 11, 2013 2:23am
Quoting janpec1000
Oh yes i trade counter trend with Ichi too and i agree for that asia does work better. As for question i meant if you trade anything else with Ichi than breakouts- like counter trend pullbacks which you already said you do

I do not really use Ichi. From time to time I have a look at it, especially when trading in Asian session


Can remember times, where I had only the Kuomo on my charts for big S/R
  • #11,450
  • Nov 11, 2013 2:25am Nov 11, 2013 2:25am
Quoting milam
a bit of informations: for the last 6 weeks, I have been trading eurjpy made 21 trades, 11 win, 10 losses, 5 consecutive losses, 4 consecutive wins, bigger trade win in pips +233, bigger trade loss in pips -66, bigger win trade in % +5.54, bigger loss trade in % -1%, total pips made +482, total % made +10.29%. Mostly they were small losses and small winners, the difference was made only by three trades. I also trade gbpusd and eurusd, for the same period they generate +9.65% and +4.36% [color=royalblue][b]I hope this information...




  • #11,451
  • Nov 11, 2013 2:45am Nov 11, 2013 2:45am
Quoting infinitus
{quote}
To answer your , I can say that TA is reduced to a very minimal to only determine the initial trade direction, the exits are determine by time, fundamental and news are not considerate at all, I try to be as far away as possible from them, because they tend to influence me in taking the wrong decision. If the news goes against me, that is ok, all part of the expenses, if it goes in my direction the better, because they generate great moves.

In brief I only look at candles or PA.

As you know I regard TA and FA as BS. Sorry...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #11,452
  • Nov 11, 2013 3:11am Nov 11, 2013 3:11am
Quoting godim
{quote} "Recall also that the 2/8 th’s, 4/8 th’s, and 6/8 th’s MML’s represent strong points of support and resistance. If we can assume that the 2/8 th’s, 4/8 th’s, and 6/8 th’s VTL’s represent strong points of reversal, we can expect that in slow trendless markets that prices will be deflected around the circles of conflict. In a fast up or down market prices will move through the circles quickly since the price momentum exists to penetrate support and resistance lines." There's a lot of space for the price. And many questions. {image}
support?

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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #11,453
  • Nov 11, 2013 3:29am Nov 11, 2013 3:29am
Quote
support?

Seems like it.
  • #11,454
  • Nov 11, 2013 3:57am Nov 11, 2013 3:57am
Quoting godim
{quote} New bearish fan on Monday {image}
New bearish fan

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Over 6060 the bears in defense. Under the 5991 the bulls in defensive. At present little advantage to the bears.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #11,455
  • Nov 11, 2013 4:08am Nov 11, 2013 4:08am
Quoting godim
Conditions for an attack to 4246 are violated. The price should be supported by the yellow of 3420. {image}
important level is 3424... to attack 4246

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #11,456
  • Nov 11, 2013 4:29am Nov 11, 2013 4:29am
Quoting milam
{quote} To answer your , I can say that TA is reduced to a very minimal to only determine the initial trade direction, the exits are determine by time, fundamental and news are not considerate at all, I try to be as far away as possible from them, because they tend to influence me in taking the wrong decision. If the news goes against me, that is ok, all part of the expenses, if it goes in my direction the better, because they generate great moves. In brief I only look at candles or PA. As you know I regard TA and FA as BS....



what is left, when you put both TA and FA out of the quotation?

Only Sentiment is left - and that is the work for the Shrinks
  • #11,457
  • Nov 11, 2013 4:54am Nov 11, 2013 4:54am
Closed usdchf shorts +16 and + 10 . Godim i agree with all your levels i plan to short eu at. 1.3425 for gu i stay in bearish view but it depends how will. Current area play out.
  • #11,458
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:13am Nov 11, 2013 5:13am
Quoting godim
{quote} New bearish fan {image} Over 6060 the bears in defense. Under the 5991 the bulls in defensive. At present little advantage to the bears.
important level 5983. bulls in defense...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 97 KB


normal breakout objective is 5907, but ... there are many support
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #11,459
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:35am Nov 11, 2013 5:35am
Go gbp bears and go usd bulls...those that are not hollidays hehe. Waiting for higher low on gold to long it meanwhile also waiting to see if au will play bounce here.
  • #11,460
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:39am Nov 11, 2013 5:39am
Quoting janpec1000
Go gbp bears and go usd bulls...those that are not hollidays hehe. Waiting for higher low on gold to long it meanwhile also waiting to see if au will play bounce here.
A/U is being a silly nilly. It wants to go up but is afraid that Stevens will chop off its legs.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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