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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #11,401
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:40pm Nov 9, 2013 6:40pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} That would be the rest of it. {image}
yes ..I believe that when breaking 21xx .. it gets ugly even for EURO.
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  • #11,402
  • Nov 10, 2013 2:17am Nov 10, 2013 2:17am
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Firm, but Look for Near-Term Pullback
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/11/...chnical_9.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,403
  • Nov 10, 2013 3:36am Nov 10, 2013 3:36am
Quoting chess king
G/U intra-day 4H chart.. if 5900 b/d...I'll look 555x as potential target..{image}
Same here.
  • #11,404
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:08am Nov 10, 2013 5:08am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Same here.
Yep.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,405
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:29am Nov 10, 2013 5:29am
Isnt it interesting how many Head and shoulders patterns we have on charts right now trough all pairs heh.
  • #11,406
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:51am Nov 10, 2013 5:51am
Quoting janpec1000
Isnt it interesting how many Head and shoulders patterns we have on charts right now trough all pairs heh.
Yes... definitely signalling USD strength. Is it a fake? Could be, but we won't know till we see some movement.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,407
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:48am Nov 10, 2013 10:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Nice one matheszabi, but sometimes the small fish get away. Read this >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post7076680

That is completely right. It is dangerous to only look at the retail data and just do the opposite. Oftentimes, especially at extremes, they are right. OK, now we can say, even a broken clock is right two times a day LOL


I am not sure, that everyone here understands the sentiment indicator of Dukascopy:

they show the liquidity consumer, which consists out of individual clients, brokers, investment companies and hedge funds. They are now over 51% long, and their long building began a few days ago:

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/


In the last days I showed a chart with this sentiment index, and we could have seen, that they were most of the time right, but I also marked an area on that chart, where they were badly wrong.
Have no time to look for it now.
  • #11,408
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:06am Nov 10, 2013 11:06am
Quoting janpec1000
Guys is there anyone trading Bitcoin? I am interested in setting up some new account with broker that supports it wondering if anyone has suggestions. Infinitus do you mind explaining how do you see perception of EUR USD war trough article, becouse from my very robust standpoint i dont see EUR having any edge in currency war against dollar. Dollar is backed by Fed and they are importing inflation cheapening dollar trough printing and imports, which increases exchange ratio of EU on upside in favour of USA. How does ECB really have anything in arsenal...
Bitcoin is a sad story for me:

when they droped towards 90 USD this summer I decided to open Bitcoin accounts at two marketplaces. One is located in USA, one in Germany.

I applied EW on the curve, and my impression was, that there was a missing wave C down, and I waited for prices in the 30-60 USD range.
Damn, would I have not been so greedy, I could have entered around 65.

But Bitcoin was no trading vehicle for me, more kind of long term investment, or long term gamble.

For trading volatility is way too high. You can burn your fingers badly when playing it leveraged. JMHO


Regarding EURUSD


Yes, FED has "printed" money

But velocity of money has slowed down very much, that is the reason why we do not see running inflation.

Second factor is "social mood".


Banks get cheap money from the FED. To cause inflation with this, they have to lend the money out to companies and private persons.

But there is a problem: when social mood is bad, or starts to get sour, banks do not like to lend money, and people and companies do not like to borrow.


All what you can see then, is, that banks are producing bubbles by throwing the money to the stock markets and the real estate markets, for example.



Also we have a third factor: it is that USD is world reserve currency. Most of the debt worldwide is denominated in USD. Now we live in times, where much of this debt implodes. That is deflationary to USD, hence its value goes up.


So we have several deflationary forces here:


a) bad social mood
b) decreasing velocity of money
c) imploding USD denominated debt



Hope you get the idea.


And lastly keep in mind:


The US is commodity rich,, the EU is commodity poor. That is a big difference in the equation.


And as long as USD is still world reserve currencie, there are a lot of people with huge interest in strong USD
  • #11,409
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:25am Nov 10, 2013 11:25am
Infinitus you know what would be cool, if you could filter out only traders that have in last year been profitable most of the time and then get current data on positions longs vs shorts. Now that would be very much different quality of information hehe.

Thanks for input on Bitcoin. Do you mind telling what are spreads like on it? Also what is avarage daily movement in pips.

Quote
But velocity of money has slowed down very much, that is the reason why we do not see running inflation.


Hm i think that inflation is there and Fed wants to prop it up, they are importing it and causing it by printing. I think that real factor why we dont see hyperinflation or at least pop up in inflation is only due to all extra dollars being made in Middle East trough petrodollar purchases.


Quote
But there is a problem: when social mood is bad, or starts to get sour, banks do not like to lend money, and people and companies do not like to borrow.

Hehe, well this is only true to default commercial banks. For investment banks we know that lending to them gets at 0 percentage interest rate and especially banks that have companieros of zionists placed on top (JP M, GS...).

Quote
All what you can see then, is, that banks are producing bubbles by throwing the money to the stock markets and the real estate markets, for example.

Yep.

Quote
And as long as USD is still world reserve currencie, there are a lot of people with huge interest in strong USD

Yup meanwhile on other side of Pacific, Chinese are droping T bills purchases from USA, taking EUR as reserve for backing of yuan, and pretty much preaparing for new currency that should or could be up to pair with dollar completly. Talks in London already on its way with preparations, i am only waiting for April to get gold reserves report, and anything around 5k means we could look forward to start trading new global currency in MT4
  • #11,410
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:27am Nov 10, 2013 11:27am
yes, let us see what 3420-3450 will do first




Quoting shellsnail
Sell zone to me for EUR/USD is 1.35. Very good confluence there. Given that this b-wave is larger than one would typically expect, I would expect C wave to overshoot 100% extension as well. Updated with Chart: {image}
  • #11,411
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:59am Nov 10, 2013 11:59am
Quoting janpec1000
Infinitus you know what would be cool, if you could filter out only traders that have in last year been profitable most of the time and then get current data on positions longs vs shorts. Now that would be very much different quality of information hehe. Thanks for input on Bitcoin. Do you mind telling what are spreads like on it? Also what is avarage daily movement in pips. {quote} Hm i think that inflation is there and Fed wants to prop it up, they are importing it and causing it by printing. I think that real factor why we dont see hyperinflation...

regarding Bitcoin:

you can trade Bitcoin on Oanda and plus500. Maybe you look there to get information or a demo account to follow it for a while.


Inflation is measured by

P = M V


where V is the velocity, and M the outstanding amount of money in circulation (that includes credits).

As you can easily see: when Velocity gets smaller, you can print.


Now let us look at the velocity of money in USA


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V


The Velocity of money came down from 2,2 to 1,55

OK, in the same timeframe we have seen a widening of the monetary base from roughly 600 Billions to 3.6 Trillions

When we see this last sentence, we scratch our head and ask, if we have seen indeed so much of inflation already. I think not.


Over the last decade we had several severely bubbles taking place and bursting. This bursting of bubbles have got the inflation under control (because imploding debt is deflationary) (JMHO).


Regarding the Chinese:

to think about it in Elliott Wave sense, this may make the USD an even better place to go long.

The Chinese buy Gold hand over fist, they sell USD hand over fist. Barely have central banks or Governments taken the right steps to the right time.


Maybe the Chinese end up with a pretty bad timing for USD and Gold?
  • #11,412
  • Nov 10, 2013 12:27pm Nov 10, 2013 12:27pm
Hehe just found out on that link you provided regarding positions, it seems like 85% traders are long on AU which is wierd since it was droping for last three days, and personally i dont see bounce before another 80 pips drop.
  • #11,413
  • Nov 10, 2013 12:59pm Nov 10, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting janpec1000
Hehe just found out on that link you provided regarding positions, it seems like 85% traders are long on AU which is wierd since it was droping for last three days, and personally i dont see bounce before another 80 pips drop.
You're probably right, but you must consider if the channel support will provide a bounce first.
We also have bullish hidden divergence and the 78.6% fibo level providing support right here.
Something to consider.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,414
  • Nov 10, 2013 1:02pm Nov 10, 2013 1:02pm
Hello everyone
i need some cnfrmation that some trader say market open with Gap up or down but as i knew some brokers open early like easyforexlive is open now bcoz i am using their demo account thatsy i know they are open now so how we can say market is open with gap and we can also see rates at xe.com . . .
I am asking u bcoz traders here are much experienced then me.
  • #11,415
  • Nov 10, 2013 1:09pm Nov 10, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting umair55
Hello everyone i need some cnfrmation that some trader say market open with Gap up or down but as i knew some brokers open early like easyforexlive is open now bcoz i am using their demo account thatsy i know they are open now so how we can say market is open with gap and we can also see rates at xe.com . . . I am asking u bcoz traders here are much experienced then me.
Real gaps happen between market close and market open.
In Forex, the market is never really closed... only the brokers close.
However, because all other markets (Equity, Futures, Options, ETFs, ETN's and all other exchange and otc derivative instruments) are closed, exchange rates don't move, and if they do, it is only in exceptional circumstances.
So, the retail trader who uses a broker that opens 1, 2 or even 3 hours after the market makers turn on their computers and reprice their bids and asks according to what may have taken place over the weekend (Econ data releases, political events), see a gap. It's not really a gap, but as long as the majority of traders see it as such, they will trade it, and if enough trade it, it will close.

Another self-fulfilling prophecy.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,416
  • Nov 10, 2013 1:18pm Nov 10, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Real gaps happen between market close and market open. In Forex, the market is never really closed... only the brokers close. However, because all other markets (Equity, Futures, Options, ETFs, ETN's and all other exchange and otc derivative instruments) are closed, exchange rates don't move, and if they do, it is only in exceptional circumstances. So, the retail trader who uses a broker that opens 1, 2 or even 3 hours after the market makers turn on their computers and reprice their bids and asks according to what may have taken place over...
thnx alot PT ur realy helpful for me i use to read all ur post
  • #11,417
  • Nov 10, 2013 2:23pm Nov 10, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting janpec1000
Isnt it interesting how many Head and shoulders patterns we have on charts right now trough all pairs heh.
good point, that shows that most of a the pairs are just a consequence of the majors, which we should focus for better result, only my humble view...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #11,418
  • Nov 10, 2013 2:32pm Nov 10, 2013 2:32pm
Ok so i had nothing to do and just maybe contributed some simple and robust trading setup called bearish/bullish wedge with upper resistance or lower support. It is highly successful pattern the only required thing i use for drawing it is that there has to be presence of lower low fail ("double bottom") or a fail of higher high ("double top").

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  • #11,419
  • Nov 10, 2013 2:48pm Nov 10, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting janpec1000
Ok so i had nothing to do and just maybe contributed some simple and robust trading setup called bearish/bullish wedge with upper resistance or lower support. It is highly successful pattern the only required thing i use for drawing it is that there has to be presence of lower low fail ("double bottom") or a fail of higher high ("double top")

then ur probably looking to short eur/jpy?!!
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  • #11,420
  • Nov 10, 2013 3:16pm Nov 10, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} regarding Bitcoin: you can trade Bitcoin on Oanda and plus500.
i actually have a plus500 account, original leverage was 10:1, 2.50 spread, min 1 lot when i started... now it's 2:1 leverage, 4.20 spread, min 10 lots... pointless
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
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