Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 175 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,481
  • Nov 7, 2013 2:48pm Nov 7, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting caparzo
Hi to all, Hi Alfonso, using monthly and Daily combo, i want to ask if these two Daily demand levels ,which are inside the monthly demand zone, were valid or not according to confirmation type of trading? {image}
None of those 2 D1 levels are valid. They are overshot, you can't use levels that are not levels for confirmation.
Take a look at the screenshot attached to see what I mean!
Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1.png Size: 30 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,482
  • Nov 7, 2013 3:10pm Nov 7, 2013 3:10pm
yes i got you, but i didnt mean that, i know these 2 Daily zones are not valid for current price,
what i am asking is; would you have taken these 2 zones when the Price were like shown in the pics.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: daily_zone_2.png Size: 30 KB
  • #3,483
  • Edited 3:24pm Nov 7, 2013 3:13pm | Edited 3:24pm
Quoting caparzo
yes i got you, but i didnt mean that, i know these 2 Daily zones are not valid for current price, what i am asking is; would you have taken these 2 zones when the Price were like shown in the pics. {image} {image}
Oooops. I didn't know you were asking me that

It all depends on how high/low those D1 levels were in relationship to its curve, the Monthly TF. I just see the D1 charts you sent me and I see neither the D1 levels lower and left on the chart nor the monthly chart, so it's not possible to tell you what I would have done. In order to make a decision we need to have a multiple timeframe analysis, we need the entry TF and the curve TF to make a decision whether we set & forget or we can use confirmation, we need D1 and Monthly timeframes.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,484
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:42pm Nov 7, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} >>>>>>>> I am not bothered by those who "hate" me or are not happy with what I am doing. I've gone through that a few times in my life with different jobs I started and people was involved, there will always be people that hate you but many others that love you, that's life! Those who don't like what I do have got 2 problems: 1) They are hating me and are adding negativity to their lives 2) They have to use lots of positive energy to end that negativity. <<<<<<<<<
Hi Alfonso,

I highly appreciate your initial Karma saying! It is very true! Further, the above aspect of negative thoughts is also very true! Once again highly appreciated.

I picked up your recent video Seminar (of 06 Nov 2013) and found it very interesting! Your drawing attention to the rules that have been mentioned in the Forum's opening pages is very nice. One needs to remember them! As Humans we tend to forget! It is good to be reminded.

Further, on seeing your screens on the seminar I found some new things on your template - (a) Supply and Demand distance on the Curve - in % for Mthly, Wkly, Daily, (b) MA & CCI Indicator (it looked different) and (c) Pips display in each supply or demand level.

I am getting back to trading after a long break of over 3 months. I have missed out a lot on this forum! My loss! I am sure you can help me cover some lost ground!

I will be grateful if you could point me to the location of (a) Your latest Template and indicators supporting it and (b) Any must read directional posts or important videos.

Kind regards.

Sachu
  • #3,485
  • Nov 8, 2013 12:39am Nov 8, 2013 12:39am
Quoting Sachu
{quote} Hi Alfonso, I highly appreciate your initial Karma saying! It is very true! Further, the above aspect of negative thoughts is also very true! Once again highly appreciated. I picked up your recent video Seminar (of 06 Nov 2013) and found it very interesting! Your drawing attention to the rules that have been mentioned in the Forum's opening pages is very nice. One needs to remember them! As Humans we tend to forget! It is good to be reminded. Further, on seeing your screens on the seminar I found some new things on your template - (a) Supply...
Hi Sachu,
Thanks for your kind words and comments, I appreciate that.

The indicators can be found in the first post like always, the updated rectangle reader indicator that extends the rectangles now also calculates the % of the curve at the upper right of the screen but you need to draw the rectangles manually in order to have that information. There is also a video that explains how the indicator is used at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428268

Get the indicators zip file again, install them on your MT platform and watch the that video. You will then see how it works
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,486
  • Nov 8, 2013 4:08am Nov 8, 2013 4:08am
Hi alfonso and everyone,

i'd like to ask you a question, and I have a illustration to help me out here

regard set and forget trades,

in the first photo you'll see fresh demand area and fresh supply, which are 1:5 profit margin,
this one is a great set&forget trade because of the profit margin,

in the second photo you'll see my issue as a new level formed right before our set&forget trade

I want to have those set&forget levels just like you do, and walk away from the computer after I've done with all that analysis, but could you really set&forget levels on the curve if another level formed just before your level that diminish the 1:5 into 1:1 risk reward? cancel the trade? and how could you trade with set&forget like that? it's actually set&don'tforget.
and what about if it'll be 1:3 than should i just take profits off and 1:3?

what's the general idea of determine profit margin is actually the main question, you wanna see that the price departure from demand area atleast 1:3 to opposed supply area and then just set it up without caring about what will happend when it'll come back to that level because that level will be your final target?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,487
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:12am Nov 8, 2013 8:12am
hey any1 here?
  • #3,488
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:18am Nov 8, 2013 9:18am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,489
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:33am Nov 8, 2013 10:33am
Quoting Irad
Hi alfonso and everyone, i'd like to ask you a question, and I have a illustration to help me out here regard set and forget trades, in the first photo you'll see fresh demand area and fresh supply, which are 1:5 profit margin, this one is a great set&forget trade because of the profit margin, in the second photo you'll see my issue as a new level formed right before our set&forget trade I want to have those set&forget levels just like you do, and walk away from the computer after I've done with all that analysis, but could you really set&forget...
Hi Irad,

It's always the same thing. You area forgetting the MOST important thing: MTF (Multiple Timeframe Analysis). You CAN'T make a decision with that simple chart/scenario.

If that second chart H4 demand is at a fresh and original weekend demand area and the Weekly is in an uptrend, you know what that H4 supply level means to that? NOTHING

If you don't make your topdown analysis and don't take into account your HTF curve you will always see levels that might prevent you from taking a trade or holding it for longer. Lower timeframe levels are removed by higher timeframe's zones. A fresh WK demand zone will most likely remove that H4 supply.

If H4 demand departure is great, little time at the level, fresh, etc. You can only do one thing, TAKE THAT LEVEL
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,490
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:37am Nov 8, 2013 10:37am
panoramia where do u think eur usd down move will end ? 1.316?
  • #3,491
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:56am Nov 8, 2013 10:56am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdmmonthly.png Size: 57 KB
  • #3,492
  • Nov 8, 2013 11:21am Nov 8, 2013 11:21am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Irad, It's always the same thing. You area forgetting the MOST important thing: MTF (Multiple Timeframe Analysis). You CAN'T make a decision with that simple chart/scenario. If that second chart H4 demand is at a fresh and original weekend demand area and the Weekly is in an uptrend, you know what that H4 supply level means to that? NOTHING If you don't make your topdown analysis and don't take into account your HTF curve you will always see levels that might prevent you from taking a trade or holding it for longer. Lower timeframe...

Hey, thanks for the answer, I don't forget MTF analysis but I didn't thought it was that important for the question, anyway:

I just want to understand if you base your targets on orginal&fresh opposed areas or just fresh areas,

let's add to that scenario I showed, that we are low in the curve, just departure from demand weekly area and that fresh+original supply area formed just before our fresh demand area,
do we need so do you set target at fresh+original area? that's what I don't get here, because once you set&forget it means that maybe a new fresh+original area might form, tell me if you got my point here

and also have a great weekend!
  • #3,493
  • Nov 9, 2013 1:10am Nov 9, 2013 1:10am
Quoting Irad
{quote} Hey, thanks for the answer, I don't forget MTF analysis but I didn't thought it was that important for the question, anyway: I just want to understand if you base your targets on orginal&fresh opposed areas or just fresh areas, let's add to that scenario I showed, that we are low in the curve, just departure from demand weekly area and that fresh+original supply area formed just before our fresh demand area, do we need so do you set target at fresh+original area? that's what I don't get here, because once you set&forget it means that maybe...
Your targets are and are NOT based on opposing original and fresh areas, they are based on your trading plan Irad. You can use opposing zones, a technical trailing stop, a fix 3:1, 4:1, 5:1 target, etc, etc. It's something you first have to define: HOW TO EXIT, and that depends on your trading plan and how agressive or conservative you are.

As far as your scenario, you didn't specify which fresh and original timeframe formed right above the fresh area of demand. You were not specific. A H4 above the H4, a WK supply above the weekely supply? You have to be very specific or the question can't be answered.

Have a great weekend
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,494
  • Nov 9, 2013 2:06am Nov 9, 2013 2:06am
Quoting Trader999
{image}
You need to read and study Post #1. You are not doing things right, read Post #1 and watch the videos. That level on your chart is not what you are calling it. The other screenshot you attached is not ok either. You are talking about rally/supply/demand, those are terms not covered on the thread.


Take your time to study the videos for some days, slowly and with no hurries.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,495
  • Nov 9, 2013 3:25am Nov 9, 2013 3:25am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} You need to read and study Post #1. You are not doing things right, read Post #1 and watch the videos. That level on your chart is not what you are calling it. The other screenshot you attached is not ok either. You are talking about rally/supply/demand, those are terms not covered on the thread. Take your time to study the videos for some days, slowly and with no hurries. Alfonso
Thanks for your reply,
levels of demand and supply on the first chart are automatic from your indicator "Supply_Demand_Zones" maybe not right beacose my broker close the candle to 1:00 of night and not to 23:00

in the second chart, "rally" for me is the road from "demand to supply" or "from "supply to demand" my doubt is "from the little demand level we look for long beacose demand is in control?"

excuse for my bad english
  • #3,496
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:51am Nov 9, 2013 4:51am
Hi to all..i have a doubt..how i can distinguish between the edge of price and middle weaker zones?
  • #3,497
  • Nov 9, 2013 8:05am Nov 9, 2013 8:05am
Hey Alfonso,
where can I find the SD indicator for forex tester 2?
I found one on a forum but I think that would create areas lags behind that of MT4.
  • #3,498
  • Nov 9, 2013 10:11am Nov 9, 2013 10:11am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Your targets are and are NOT based on opposing original and fresh areas, they are based on your trading plan Irad. You can use opposing zones, a technical trailing stop, a fix 3:1, 4:1, 5:1 target, etc, etc. It's something you first have to define: HOW TO EXIT, and that depends on your trading plan and how agressive or conservative you are. As far as your scenario, you didn't specify which fresh and original timeframe formed right above the fresh area of demand. You were not specific. A H4 above the H4, a WK supply above the weekely supply?...
Hi,
That's what I was curious, how to determine where to put my targets, I didn't catch that from the earlier posts of the thread and also from the 1st page, which is very good for the point of supply and demand but still leave alot of space for my own taste, which I very like because we all trade differently, but still, I might wanna know some ways how to determine targets(the stops you were very clear about where to put them) since I am new to this.

as for my scenario, I remade that picture, I wonder how you'll take this one, since I am still building my trading plan based on supply and demand and you opinion is have great priority on my choises I am about to do.


Also another thing I noticed from your 1st page post is how do you determine your HTF curve?
Are you looking for the last original level them formed? does it matter if this zone is R-B-R/D-B-D or R-B-D/D-B-R?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: supplyanddemand1.png Size: 25 KB
  • #3,499
  • Nov 9, 2013 10:23am Nov 9, 2013 10:23am
Hello Alfonso i would like to ask some questions...i have read a lot and watch almost all of your videos..
1.First i would like to ask how many profit targets you use??
2.If the profit potential is less than 2:1 then you dont take the trade??
3.And last, i have hear you many times saying that when the zone is not fresh we dont take the trade unless we have confirmation..
what is the confirmation you need in order to take the trade...

thank you very much...!!
  • #3,500
  • Nov 9, 2013 10:43pm Nov 9, 2013 10:43pm
Quoting gigiocean
Hi to all..i have a doubt..how i can distinguish between the edge of price and middle weaker zones?
gigiocean, here you go.

Attached Image


try to read also the BUY LOW, SELL HIGH (in the curve or range) in post # 01.
SMT, IPDA, Market Structure
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