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  • #1,421
  • Nov 5, 2013 11:11am Nov 5, 2013 11:11am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} also waiting on VIX to fall below 10
how much time you got?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,422
  • Nov 5, 2013 11:52am Nov 5, 2013 11:52am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} how much time you got?
this could take a few months for it to work through, even when it gets below 10, look to go out 9 months
  • #1,423
  • Nov 5, 2013 1:15pm Nov 5, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} this could take a few months for it to work through, even when it gets below 10, look to go out 9 months
one might consider a put spread on SVXY, say sell Nov $109 puts @ $1.25, buy Jan $80 puts at $2.00....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,424
  • Nov 5, 2013 1:27pm Nov 5, 2013 1:27pm
UNG I expect to bounce into the Spring, jan $21 calls @ $0.14 now, sell the Dec $15 puts @ $0.14 for a free trade there, try the sh Dec $16 puts @ $0.35 for a credit spread, net $0.20....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,425
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:33pm Nov 5, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
hello everyone, back again
Hello mate.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,426
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:36pm Nov 5, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} BW i haven't read that book but it is the same thing as I do, this kind of trading has grown exponentially since the launch of weekly options a few years back. There is more to buying just cheap options, its a great way to understand the power of money management
Cheers CG, I'd forgotten about that; I might invest in a copy..throw my inner gambler a few bones. I might actually learn something as my money management is probably one of my weakest points.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,427
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:38pm Nov 5, 2013 2:38pm
Bonds look tentatively like they could be turning for another leg up - possible broken micro wedge inside a possible bull flag (yeah I know, lots of possibles).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,428
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:46pm Nov 5, 2013 2:46pm
Currently in a bull diagonal put spread on dem bonds btw - short Dec 135 long Jan 132. Bit of an experiment - I don't usually do spreads but I probably should. I wonder if I should get a book on spreads, but then again, I suppose, at the end of the day, isn't it all just about support, resistance, and time decay?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,429
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:47pm Nov 5, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ...So we hope. TSLA earnings been a fun trade all year....
...been hell on shorts, though. We'll see in a few minutes....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,430
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:54pm Nov 5, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Currently in a bull diagonal put spread on dem bonds btw - short Dec 135 long Jan 132. Bit of an experiment - I don't usually do spreads but I probably should. I wonder if I should get a book on spreads, but then again, I suppose, at the end of the day, isn't it all just about support, resistance, and time decay?
I wouldn't touch any long bond action near term myself. re: spreading, I like it, always looking for credit spreads where I can find them. On potential volatile plays I am looking for straddles or strangles. I don't mind shooting off pure directional bets either but I want to fund those with safer trades....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,431
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:59pm Nov 5, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I wouldn't touch any long bond action near term myself...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-co...161646623.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,432
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:59pm Nov 5, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ...been hell on shorts, though. We'll see in a few minutes....
My god, I just checked the options - IV is through the roof! 150%. Luckily perhaps for me I'm all maxed out on my account so no trading there for me.
Good luck.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,433
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:05pm Nov 5, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-co...161646623.html
Thanks for the link. I'm long based on sketchy fundamentals much like that, common sense, and technicals. Furthermore it's a spread, and a calendar at that, so I'll just roll the short put (probably) if it goes pear-shaped, and in any case I'm protected by my Jan long.
Mark Carney et al at the BoE have already come out and said they're going to be looking at a number of factors, not just the headline unemployment rate. They're going to be looking at the quality of the employment; they've learnt from the Fed's reductionist mistake of stating that they are looking only at the unemployment rate, and I expect the Fed to follow suit. It's common sense; everyone knows that the participation rate is dropping and will continue to drop inexorably. There's far more to gauging when to take the foot off of the pedal than just the headline unemployment rate.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,434
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:06pm Nov 5, 2013 3:06pm
If you're short on TSLA looks like you've come up trumps.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,435
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:10pm Nov 5, 2013 3:10pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} My god, I just checked the options - IV is through the roof! 150%. Luckily perhaps for me I'm all maxed out on my account so no trading there for me. Good luck.
TSLA dropping like a lead turd AH, I hope to net $2+ off my diag put spread before the week is out....Dec $120 puts riding free....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,436
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:11pm Nov 5, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
If you're short on TSLA looks like you've come up trumps.
backin up the truck.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,437
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:14pm Nov 5, 2013 3:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} backin up the truck.....
Good stuff mate. Probably was lucky for me cos I probably would have tilted to selling puts..although when I saw those prices I was tempted by some kind of short straddle or perhaps more likely a short strangle.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,438
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:16pm Nov 5, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} There's far more to gauging when to take the foot off of the pedal than just the headline unemployment rate.
Yep, I'm not counting on any near-term help from the Fed, just QE**infinity & business as usual. I'm more clinging to the notion that another budget impasse will grip DC in December and that + year-end selling will precipitate US market slides into '14. Looking for other ideas to grab at and save my life as we speak...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,439
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:03pm Nov 5, 2013 10:03pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
put in a order for SLB weekly puts.
welcome back to the grindstone, Cecil. Do you see any other weeklies you like?

I've just been poring over the remaining earnings outs, I see Apache (APA) comes out at 0800 NY time on 11/7. Looks like it has popped $5-$10 on the last two. I might play a wide strangle on it. Nov 6 APA $85 put lt @ $0.18, $95 call lt @ $0.19, ~$0.40 net. A jump just to itm for either one by Thursday close would be worth ~$1.40 +/-.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,440
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:55pm Nov 5, 2013 10:55pm
boy howdy when I see that log scale on a stock chart I know I am onto something hot! Jan '16 $10 calls are only $0.25.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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