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vsa with Malcolm

  • #24,801
  • Nov 3, 2013 11:26pm Nov 3, 2013 11:26pm
Too bad this thread isn't more active.. If it was I could post a chart and ask what does it mean from what it tells you of November 1st and 3rd and how could you use it to your advantage..
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  • #24,802
  • Nov 4, 2013 2:56am Nov 4, 2013 2:56am
Quoting SimpleDev
Too bad this thread isn't more active.. If it was I could post a chart and ask what does it mean from what it tells you of November 1st and 3rd and how could you use it to your advantage.. {image}
Hello SimpleDev,
Thank you for posting this chart.
This quiz format is perfect for us new to vsa to learn from the more experts.
Please let those charts coming.
Ok, I'll give it a try:
We have those two huge spike in volume (compared to the surrounding candles) highlighted in red on my chart.
In wyckoff terms, the first one might be a selling climax followed by an AR defining a very narrow range, the second one a shake out...
In VSA terms the first highlighted in green I don't know what it's called:upthrust= weakness or successfull effort to go down= weakness, but what is obvious is that volume is way too high compared to spread meaning there is probably a lot of buying in this down bar. Same remark for all the following highlighted one except the shake out.
The second and third (stopping volume?) show SOS. The fourth one which might show weakness (test for supply?) has such a disproportionate volume compared to spread (spread is white line on volume histogram) that there is a lot of buying in it hence strength. We arrive to the shake out which shows high volume but proportionate to spread and even a bit lower, it's probably a test as well that goes way past the previous one with less volume.
So if it can be considered as a test then it is successful: there is very little supply left and SM can start the mark up to offload higher what they have bought on this lower ground. They might as well want to retest again, drawing a W.
I hope I'm not too far off.
Thanks
Srx
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  • #24,803
  • Nov 4, 2013 3:58am Nov 4, 2013 3:58am
Quoting schmurex
{quote} Hello SimpleDev, Thank you for posting this chart. This quiz format is perfect for us new to vsa to learn from the more experts. Please let those charts coming. Ok, I'll give it a try: We have those two huge spike in volume (compared to the surrounding candles) highlighted in red on my chart. In wyckoff terms, the first one might be a selling climax followed by an AR defining a very narrow range, the second one a shake out... In VSA terms the first highlighted in green I don't know what it's called:upthrust= weakness or successfull effort...
Yup I agree with most of what you said.

The biggest thing is I wouldn't call it a selling climax, more of stopping volume. With Climaxes think big, big spreads big volume, with a 15m I would really like to see climatic volume as higher than the previous 2 or 3 days.

15m chart so keep the 1h in mind as well which 1h is in a downtrend and with out a selling climax I am only thinking this is temporary strength looking for a target of daily pivot R1 at 3560.
  • #24,804
  • Nov 4, 2013 4:21am Nov 4, 2013 4:21am
I don't think I talk about entries too much, so here is this.

oh.. While I was creating this chart thought I would mark off a selling climax, no doubt about that. The point of the previous post was there is some doubt on the 15m. Still consider this a counter trend trade though.

Past few weeks I have been diiving to the 5m chart as it has been easier to find entries. I like the 21 SMA and watching it for an area to find entries as well as a trend indicator. I don't know what the deal is but for the last year or so, I either just don't notice NS/ND or they aren't there just about all of my entries are based off of tests.

Notice there is some weakness after the second entry bar, but the volume doesn't compare to selling climax, right now I am not concerned.

Happy trading.
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  • #24,805
  • Nov 4, 2013 4:24am Nov 4, 2013 4:24am
Quoting SimpleDev
Too bad this thread isn't more active.. If it was I could post a chart and ask what does it mean from what it tells you of November 1st and 3rd and how could you use it to your advantage.. {image}
Hi SimpleDev

I think this thread is active but the traders like me are reading and trying to find out most important posts by Malcolm and your old posts..and it is more than 1200 pages. It takes muche time and effort to read and understand it.

If somebody has already read it and marked the most important posts of Malcolm and other experienced traders, it would be useful to get which numbers they are. Or a compilation of these posts would be very useful.
  • #24,806
  • Nov 4, 2013 4:52am Nov 4, 2013 4:52am
Quoting Trappist
{quote} Hi SimpleDev I think this thread is active but the traders like me are reading and trying to find out most important posts by Malcolm and your old posts..and it is more than 1200 pages. It takes muche time and effort to read and understand it. If somebody has already read it and marked the most important posts of Malcolm and other experienced traders, it would be useful to get which numbers they are. Or a compilation of these posts would be very useful.

Fair enough..

In my opinion the best post in this thread, straight to the point and everything you need to know about VSA. Print it out and keep it close.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post4024442

Start reading about page 410 and stop around 650-700, these are the best pages of this thread. After those your time will be better spent in front of a chart.

I would suggest reading 5 pages or so a day and spend the rest of the time looking at charts. The thing about trying to learn forex from others is they can only take you so far, the fact is it takes practice and concentration to see them on your own on.
  • #24,807
  • Nov 4, 2013 5:40am Nov 4, 2013 5:40am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Fair enough.. In my opinion the best post in this thread, straight to the point and everything you need to know about VSA. Print it out and keep it close. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post4024442 Start reading about page 410 and stop around 650-700, these are the best pages of this thread. After those your time will be better spent in front of a chart. I would suggest reading 5 pages or so a day and spend the rest of the time looking at charts. The thing about trying to learn forex from others is they can...
Thank you SimpleDev, I have been studying VSA around 15 months and read Undeclares Secrets of The Markets four times. Still trying to build up a solid understanding of VSA.

Your comment about selling climax sounds interesting. An accumulation starts, when we have seen selling climax and strength comes in the selling climax or next bar when SM has started a buying activity. So the close is somewhere in the middle.

Your comment says that we have seen only a stopping volume without seeing a Selling climax. How does this affect our future price anticipation ? What I have understood is, without a Selling Climax around an old demand level, we should not expect an accum. and markup phase. That means only stopping volume is not enough. This indicates only a retrecament to upside and the down trend will continue untill we have seen a Selling climax with ultra high volume and ultra wide spread down bars.

This stopping volume is created by smart money going long to offload during next supply level. Some part of this stopping volume might be closing long positions of weak holders.

hope I am on the right path.
  • #24,808
  • Nov 4, 2013 6:41am Nov 4, 2013 6:41am
Quoting Trappist
{quote} Your comment says that we have seen only a stopping volume without seeing a Selling climax. How does this affect our future price anticipation ? What I have understood is, without a Selling Climax around an old demand level, we should not expect an accum. and markup phase. That means only stopping volume is not enough. This indicates only a retrecament to upside and the down trend will continue untill we have seen a Selling climax with ultra high volume and ultra wide spread down bars.
You are on the right path, I am only expecting a retrace, in other words a counter trend trade (from a 1h perspective). Just a side note, that I usually trade smaller positions on counter trend trades, but not today I will explain in a second.

Now just looking at Friday alone, there probably is a good amount of buy orders that are just covering shorts, Fridays for a lot of people are profit taking days due to traders who don't want to hold positions over the weekend, but with the strength that came in today as the market opened it was apparent there was some actual strength that came in on Friday.

Here is a little secret I think I have shared here before, Sundays are the easiest day to trade. Watch the PA for the first 3 or 4 hours as the market opens up. Watch for PA with wide spreads, normally the volume will be low. But if you follow the bias of the PA it will usually give you the direction for the day. Today's was bullish as you can see, hence why I took a normal sized position.

Sorry long post, I try to keep them short..

Take a look the bar from Friday, where the first sign of strength comes in. Its a down bar closing on its low with increased volume. Normally this is weakness, but the next bar is a squat bar which is a sign of strength, the next two bars after the squat are up bars, showing strength here. If strength started coming in here, good chance price will return. R1 is right above the high of this bar, which is where I got my target.

Alright I am done for the day.
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  • #24,809
  • Nov 4, 2013 3:11pm Nov 4, 2013 3:11pm
SimpleDev's 60min AUDUSD chart on bigger time frame (6A Futures) - clear buying IMO
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  • #24,810
  • Nov 4, 2013 11:48pm Nov 4, 2013 11:48pm
Quoting Hummel
SimpleDev's 60min AUDUSD chart on bigger time frame (6A Futures) - clear buying IMO {image} {image}
I was wondering if anyone else jumped in on that trade. The 1h chart I posted has a selling climax, should be a nice run. Maybe 9700 or 9800, we will see.
  • #24,811
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:48am Nov 5, 2013 12:48am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-warrants.html

Article published on September 30th says Buffett gets a stock warrant for 13.1 million shares of Goldman.

Chart for Friday September 20th shows an 8.7 million share transaction after market hours, to which price falls for the next 12 trading days.

Whatcha doing there Buffett?
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  • #24,812
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:50am Nov 5, 2013 2:50am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Yup I agree with most of what you said. The biggest thing is I wouldn't call it a selling climax, more of stopping volume. With Climaxes think big, big spreads big volume, with a 15m I would really like to see climatic volume as higher than the previous 2 or 3 days. 15m chart so keep the 1h in mind as well which 1h is in a downtrend and with out a selling climax I am only thinking this is temporary strength looking for a target of daily pivot R1 at 3560.

Thanks for your feed back.
Your advice helped me keep the target small, I took profit @ 3520.
Reversed @ 3516 with TP at the bottom of TR @ 3480 (curently 5pips away).

IMHO This TR has developped into something more akin to an accumulation than a redistribution.
We will see...
  • #24,813
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:42am Nov 6, 2013 3:42am
Hey guys I have gotten hold of Tom Williams 'Undeclared secrets of the stock market' book from 1993, just wondered if it is worth getting the 'Master the Markets' book also? II have heard that it is maybe the same stuff repeated but with Tradeguider charts? many thanks for any pointers, cheers
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #24,814
  • Nov 6, 2013 11:44pm Nov 6, 2013 11:44pm
Quoting Connected
Hey guys I have gotten hold of Tom Williams 'Undeclared secrets of the stock market' book from 1993, just wondered if it is worth getting the 'Master the Markets' book also? II have heard that it is maybe the same stuff repeated but with Tradeguider charts? many thanks for any pointers, cheers
To be honest I am not sure, I have only read MTM.

I think there was a post from someone on this thread saying what you said about how they were the same book except that MTM had tradeguider charts.

If you already have Undeclared Secrets then I wouldn't worry too much about MTM then.
  • #24,815
  • Nov 6, 2013 11:51pm Nov 6, 2013 11:51pm
UJ looks to be setting its self up for a move.

Volume seems to be at the top of the triangle.
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  • #24,816
  • Nov 7, 2013 5:44am Nov 7, 2013 5:44am
Quoting Connected
Hey guys I have gotten hold of Tom Williams 'Undeclared secrets of the stock market' book from 1993, just wondered if it is worth getting the 'Master the Markets' book also? II have heard that it is maybe the same stuff repeated but with Tradeguider charts? many thanks for any pointers, cheers
I've read both. MTM has clearer pictures and yes, is full of TG.
  • #24,817
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:02am Nov 7, 2013 7:02am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} To be honest I am not sure, I have only read MTM. I think there was a post from someone on this thread saying what you said about how they were the same book except that MTM had tradeguider charts. If you already have Undeclared Secrets then I wouldn't worry too much about MTM then.

Cheers Simpledev I think I will stick with this one, ta very much like.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #24,818
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:02am Nov 7, 2013 7:02am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} I've read both. MTM has clearer pictures and yes, is full of TG.

Cheers Bud for the info.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #24,819
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:05am Nov 7, 2013 10:05am
Quoting SimpleDev
UJ looks to be setting its self up for a move. Volume seems to be at the top of the triangle. {image}
i want to ask...how to you set your take profit..do you use any supply or demand zone ahead..or you just wait till the pros tip their hand again...thanks in advance............input from anyone appreciated also............
  • #24,820
  • Nov 7, 2013 1:14pm Nov 7, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting SimpleDev
UJ looks to be setting its self up for a move. Volume seems to be at the top of the triangle. {image}
another question is how do you.....follow the trend with this system,seems it is not trend based.in short am trying to ask if u use just 1 time frame or u use two time frames or u could give a possible time frame combination.........
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