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Economic Analysis VS Market Action

  • #201
  • Oct 16, 2013 8:26pm Oct 16, 2013 8:26pm
The Bureau of Labor Statistics previously said it would take three working days to prepare the non-farm payrolls report after the government reopens...

since US gov open tomoorow... i expect NFP to release on next week...

but just calculate....how much deficit accumulate for the shutdown??? it will drive the market soon...
Bismillah
  • #202
  • Oct 21, 2013 6:56pm Oct 21, 2013 6:56pm
Non farm payroll preview in my oppninion

NFP and Jobless Rate good=Big US Bull
NFP and Jobless Rate Bad= Big US Bear
NFP and Jobless Rate mix(good and bad)= market will whipsaw and trade after 10 minutes after digestion market by investor ....

but all the keypoint for now is jobless rate for FED tapering correlation

Non Farm Payroll today will be BIG volatility for market since i think BIG traders waiting this big event since US shutdown.....thats why the Shutdown/debt limit event not make a big move in the market.....the key point is FED tapering correlation with this NFP result even we know the TAPERING will not come early or sooner ...huhu
Bismillah
  • #203
  • Oct 23, 2013 7:11pm Oct 23, 2013 7:11pm
get ready to sell GBP on rally target ahead posible H&S 15TF/Double High Daily

1. 1.6000
2. 1.5500

But if break 1.6300 this forecast will be no valid anymore..
Bismillah
  • #204
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:09pm Oct 31, 2013 6:09pm
My expectation......next week ECB will at least cut 25bps...

market now are pricing for the rate cut...euro tumble

Reason....employment rate sluggish and deflation sign on latest european data....
Bismillah
  • #205
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:13pm Oct 31, 2013 6:13pm
Quoting krunfx
My expectation......next week ECB will at least cut 25bps... market now are pricing for the rate cut...euro tumble Reason....employment rate sluggish and deflation sign on latest european data....
That.....and the realisation (now that the Capital Hill soap opera is over temporarily), that nothing has changed in the EZ....a few slightly improved data numbers do not add up to economic recovery.....no matter what Draghi spins... hahahaha
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #206
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:34pm Oct 31, 2013 6:34pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} That.....and the realisation (now that the Capital Hill soap opera is over temporarily), that nothing has changed in the EZ....a few slightly improved data numbers do not add up to economic recovery.....no matter what Draghi spins... hahahaha
ahahhaa......forget the US.........now world must reaalize to live with low rate or NO RATE for ever...hahahaha
Bismillah
  • #207
  • Nov 1, 2013 11:44am Nov 1, 2013 11:44am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} ahahhaa......forget the US.........now world must reaalize to live with low rate or NO RATE for ever...hahahaha
likely Euro will go down to 1 18 Someone predict
  • #208
  • Nov 1, 2013 1:21pm Nov 1, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting krunfx
My expectation......next week ECB will at least cut 25bps... market now are pricing for the rate cut
Where do you see 25bps rate cut forecast? Forecast on my economic calendar for rate is 0.50%...so not change...But that would explain why my Eur longs from yesterday didn't working out...
  • #209
  • Nov 3, 2013 8:48pm Nov 3, 2013 8:48pm
Quoting pbylina
{quote} Where do you see 25bps rate cut forecast? Forecast on my economic calendar for rate is 0.50%...so not change...But that would explain why my Eur longs from yesterday didn't working out...

i not see at any page...but from my observation base on recent economic data only..
Bismillah
  • #210
  • Nov 4, 2013 5:38am Nov 4, 2013 5:38am
Yeah, it makes sense though. They should cut.
  • #211
  • Nov 4, 2013 5:58am Nov 4, 2013 5:58am
Quoting pbylina
Yeah, it makes sense though. They should cut.
There are 3 arsenals for ECB: Rate cut, Monetary easing policy, Fed-like QE package. Now which one, or which mixture will give less turbulence?
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #212
  • Nov 4, 2013 4:20pm Nov 4, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} There are 3 arsenals for ECB: Rate cut, Monetary easing policy, Fed-like QE package. Now which one, or which mixture will give less turbulence?
rate cut...
Bismillah
  • #213
  • Nov 4, 2013 4:20pm Nov 4, 2013 4:20pm
nothing much on RBA ...no rate cut is confirm....for now we just wait for RBA rate hike only since inflation highly occur in AUstralia put pressure on RBA to hike the rate earlier than expcted...

im expect RBA today on hold but since hyperinflation occur recently actually RBA have a room to hike the rate if not today maybe about next or another months.....

if rate on hold the AUD will whipsaw/bulll
if rate hike then AUD will highly bullish..

25bps or 50bps or more rate hike (since hyperinflation)is actually surprise event....

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Bismillah
  • #214
  • Nov 4, 2013 4:26pm Nov 4, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting krunfx
nothing much on RBA ...no rate cut is confirm....for now we just wait for RBA rate hike only since inflation highly occur in AUstralia put pressure on RBA to hike the rate earlier than expcted... im expect RBA today on hold but since hyperinflation occur recently actually RBA have a room to hike the rate if not today maybe about next or another months..... if rate on hold the AUD will whipsaw/bulll if rate hike then AUD will highly bullish.. 25bps or 50bps or more rate hike (since hyperinflation)is actually surprise event.... {image}
Just guessing but I doubt there will be a rate hike until next year...it's too close to Christmas to do it now, the RBA will want to see the year out as it is. The RBNZ will hike the rates next year, they already said so, and I expect RBA to do the same.

We don't need no stinkin' arrows over here hahahahaha
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #215
  • Nov 4, 2013 5:13pm Nov 4, 2013 5:13pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Just guessing but I doubt there will be a rate hike until next year...it's too close to Christmas to do it now, the RBA will want to see the year out as it is. The RBNZ will hike the rates next year, they already said so, and I expect RBA to do the same. We don't need no stinkin' arrows over here hahahahaha
yes i know..but inflation rescently surgged like helll.....thats why RBA under pressure...hahahaa
Bismillah
  • #216
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:41am Nov 7, 2013 12:41am
My trading idea for today ECB press conference/intrest rate, BOE statement & also not to forget US Q3 GDP (since this is the recent data for the last month shutdown) must be watch very cafefully

1.Most important figure that faded monetary focus for today is the US Q3 GDP....this figure most important to measure how must GDP drop due to shutdown last month.....the data should be weak,....if good data occur than USD should have big bullish momentum....

2..FOR ECB....since yesterday no change in rate n ltro speculation rise today for me will be surprise event if ECB cut rate,announce LTRO......but since recently sign that deflation occur in European country ++ jobless rate surge actually ECB have a room to ease more thats mean (cut rate or LTRO)...but we have a rumors yesterday told that no rate cut n ltro for today.....so if both of it not implemented for sure ECB have a “new measure” to contain deflation with higher unemployment....
For me actually ecb have a room to cut at least 25bps to 0.25% for ref. Rate but if ECB consider rate is low then LTRO is inviteable.....they need to do it to contain deflation & jobless rate surge...and any new measure will be surprise event....
Draghi could dovish today....there are no sign that Europe economy recovery...and eco still subdued...

Actually for long term EUR/usd form bearish pennant pettern..this time eur/usd should drop 1.25 at least before go back to bullish momentum ant test 1.4-1.5 sooon......

3.For BOE.....since actually we have a rumors about ltro from BOE that only be market driven for GBP since we already know about BOE forward guidance,,.....the GBP will have a big impact if BOE announce new measure.....
GBP/USD still bearish unless 1.6300 break that bring bullish momentum back...

watching #eur #fiber #gbp #cable #USD #GOLD very closely...

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Bismillah
  • #217
  • Nov 7, 2013 1:35am Nov 7, 2013 1:35am
Quoting krunfx
watching #eur #fiber #gbp #cable #USD #GOLD very closely... {image}{image}{image}
Is that you Noda?? hahaha
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #218
  • Nov 7, 2013 6:30am Nov 7, 2013 6:30am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Is that you Noda?? hahaha

no now im draghi...i already cut the rate..hhaha
Bismillah
  • #219
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:51am Nov 7, 2013 7:51am
​
Quoting krunfx
My expectation......next week ECB will at least cut 25bps... market now are pricing for the rate cut...euro tumble Reason....employment rate sluggish and deflation sign on latest european data....
You know the reason: deflation is still strong in Greece and beginning in other european countries . The cut was dued.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #220
  • Nov 7, 2013 2:35pm Nov 7, 2013 2:35pm
Did anyone catch that move? Krun?
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