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Medium & Long Term ONLY

  • #141
  • Nov 4, 2013 5:13am Nov 4, 2013 5:13am
hey Olu

bit of a dilema Uj as I am bullish $ ,I think jpy must strengthen too , but overall I think retrace further before high taken from this zone

if up first ? maybe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY Spot.png Size: 44 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #142
  • Nov 4, 2013 5:18am Nov 4, 2013 5:18am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Yes, a good result. Now post a chart of when and why you made the best trade on there. I've seen people win at roulette, believe it or not.
As you can see the roulette has nothing to do with my performances. This all the instruments I traded with losses and wins with 1 entry and more than 1 entry/trade. The Nikkei index was also the trade that brought me the horrible drawdown but I had too much faith in my trade and enough money in my account to avoid a margin call and my "intuition" payed me.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-04_1213.png Size: 39 KB
Buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying !
  • #143
  • Nov 4, 2013 5:26am Nov 4, 2013 5:26am
Honestly its not impotant ,I mean you posted every thread ,spend a bit of time showing us how you did it is better

Quoting arenoosh
{quote} As you can see the roulette has nothing to do with my performances. This all the instruments I traded with losses and wins with 1 entry and more than 1 entry/trade. The Nikkei index was also the trade that brought me the horrible drawdown but I had too much faith in my trade and enough money in my account to avoid a margin call and my \"intuition\" payed me. {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #144
  • Nov 4, 2013 6:11am Nov 4, 2013 6:11am
Quoting Bones
hey Olu bit of a dilema Uj as I am bullish $ ,I think jpy must strengthen too , but overall I think retrace further before high taken from this zone if up first ? maybe {image}

I understood the "hanging man" was not a reliable signal unless confirmed - i.e. the next bar to break the low? I might be wrong.

Sorry about the hourly charts, my fault. I worry about rookies trying to trade off weekly charts and so that is why I started that dialogue. I wonder if BB might forgive me?
Gone to a better place
  • #145
  • Nov 4, 2013 6:52am Nov 4, 2013 6:52am
Im sure he'd be happy to have you onboard SM ,well next candle was bearish ? ,no I don't think the low has to be broken to confirm ,obviously thats better,but the size of it is asking a lot considering bull run


Quoting smikester
{quote} I understood the \"hanging man\" was not a reliable signal unless confirmed - i.e. the next bar to break the low? I might be wrong. Sorry about the hourly charts, my fault. I worry about rookies trying to trade off weekly charts and so that is why I started that dialogue. I wonder if BB might forgive me?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #146
  • Nov 4, 2013 8:51am Nov 4, 2013 8:51am
hello and welcome to everyone

following the topic about UJ here's my view:
i agree with bones about the $ strength could cause JPY strength too, so muct be cautious!!
also i agree with smikester about a very long term view > 110

speaking in terms of intraweek setup i actually don't want to see price losing the red rectangle area in the 8hours chart below.
reasons:
98.40 is quarterly opening price + weekly pivot
98.20 is 61% retrace of this last swing up from 96.95

with the blue trendline i want to show what happened in previous swing up, when price was definetly unable to get into 99area.
could happen a similar situation so back into 97area (or lower): in this case i will cut my longs and wait for another opportunity.

but still i'm holding the position. in the chart is seen i scaled more @98.60-65 and have a buy limit just above the above mentioned red area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_JPY_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 46 KB
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  • #147
  • Nov 4, 2013 8:55am Nov 4, 2013 8:55am
Quoting smikester
{quote} I understood the \"hanging man\" was not a reliable signal unless confirmed - i.e. the next bar to break the low? I might be wrong. Sorry about the hourly charts, my fault. I worry about rookies trying to trade off weekly charts and so that is why I started that dialogue. I wonder if BB might forgive me?

no ok i think hourly chart is ok even when considering a long term trade
personally i also sometimes use a 30minutes or even 15 minutes charts if required to read PA at a particular level.

in the same time... i'm used to say "it's not certainly a candle what does a move... "
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  • #148
  • Nov 4, 2013 8:59am Nov 4, 2013 8:59am
this is how quarterly appears (i forgot to attach on previous post )

speaking in terms of candlestick i guess price must hold the quarter opening and take out previous close/open (99.40) to keep pushing to the upside till end of year > 100
opposite scenario is a move back to 96.00 or into 95area where eventually bounce.

at the moment both scenarios are possible imo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_JPY_3 Months_snapshot.png Size: 24 KB
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  • #149
  • Nov 4, 2013 9:21am Nov 4, 2013 9:21am
oh right just me then ,just hoping the thread not filled with low tf , nice trading anyway BB


Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} no ok i think hourly chart is ok even when considering a long term trade personally i also sometimes use a 30minutes or even 15 minutes charts if required to read PA at a particular level. in the same time... i'm used to say \"it's not certainly a candle what does a move... \"
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #150
  • Nov 4, 2013 1:12pm Nov 4, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting Bones
oh right just me then ,just hoping the thread not filled with low tf , nice trading anyway BB {quote}

oh no, i was referring to what i said in my quote! i mean.. it's not certainly an m15 or m30 candle what build the move!!
ok sometimes happen we see a strong sign in m15-m30 when price reach an important monthly level, but it's not what i'm looking for

and tks, actually last month was very good here
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  • #151
  • Nov 4, 2013 1:53pm Nov 4, 2013 1:53pm
i closed the whole usd chf long position.
order long removed.
the thing is not giving me confidence and still we are into daily downtrend.

will be looking to reload near my previous entry into .89 area

....or eventually once price will breake the downtrend. meanwhile i will also going for some scalp opp in EU + GU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_CHF_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 20 KB
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  • #152
  • Nov 4, 2013 1:57pm Nov 4, 2013 1:57pm
this shit is not rising at all.
i will not touch the trade, will surely get me out @BE (scaled 50% when + 80p)

and i will hold today's small entry @1.2311

then will be looking to buy in 1.21 area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_CHF_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 25 KB
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  • #153
  • Nov 4, 2013 2:20pm Nov 4, 2013 2:20pm
i'm thinking about GBP NZD since last week....
here's the quarterly view:

price actaully is trading higher than this looooong time old downtrend, trapped below 2.0
while typing, price is exactly in the middle between 1.97 and 1.88 which are most recent quarterly sup/res
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_3 Months_snapshot.png Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_3 Months_snapshot_b.png Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_3 Months_snapshot_c.png Size: 17 KB
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  • #154
  • Nov 4, 2013 2:27pm Nov 4, 2013 2:27pm
on monthly what i see is a change in overall behavior:
watching this chart from left to the right, i added those red arrows on january + june 2012 and january 2013... during those months market erased completely the recent demand closing month near previous lows or at new lows.

now the situation looks different!!
during october 2013 market failed to close a full bearish candle (demand?) and now still we are into that same range area.

in few words we could be into monthly demand
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_Monthly_snapshot.png Size: 18 KB
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  • #155
  • Nov 4, 2013 2:35pm Nov 4, 2013 2:35pm
problems come in daily and 4h ....

not certainly one of my favorite situations....

but i'm sure i'll get it soon
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 17 KB
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  • #156
  • Nov 4, 2013 2:43pm Nov 4, 2013 2:43pm
i'm dreaming about another move to reach the 1.90 area
it's just 200pips... can get it this week!
Attached Image
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  • #157
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:07am Nov 5, 2013 2:07am
UJ order long filled.
but i'm considering to cut the whole trade!!
it's not giving the strength signs i was expecting...
Attached Image
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  • #158
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:09am Nov 5, 2013 2:09am
meanwhile the Gchf is apparently doing good!
in few minutes something from switzerland and later Uk services..
Attached Image
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  • #159
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:11am Nov 5, 2013 3:11am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello and welcome to everyone following the topic about UJ here's my view: i agree with bones about the $ strength could cause JPY strength too, so muct be cautious!! also i agree with smikester about a very long term view > 110 speaking in terms of intraweek setup i actually don't want to see price losing the red rectangle area in the 8hours chart below. reasons: 98.40 is quarterly opening price + weekly pivot 98.20 is 61% retrace of this last swing up from 96.95 with the blue trendline i want to show what happened in previous swing...
There is another scenario to this levels..... might this happen still the bullish bias remains intact. This is medium term idea approx 1-2 weeks... 3 Drive !

;-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fdfd.jpg Size: 75 KB
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  • #160
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:34am Nov 5, 2013 3:34am
Quoting _BBKing_
meanwhile the Gchf is apparently doing good! in few minutes something from switzerland and later Uk services.. {image}



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