My market philosophy

Hi, you are Welcome!
I'm Alessandro, Italian (so sorry, sometimes I could make some grammar mistakes), 23 years old. I studied IT and since 2010 I have studied markets and I'm self-taught about them.
I'm here because I have a great skill, I always need to make me questions, I want to see all clear.
I started 3 years ago with forex, indicators, systems, and more.
Yeah I made some profits with but in the end i was never satisfied because i wanted to understand why markets move.
My research went through many arguments, and in the end, it went through the truth. Yeah this is my truth that could be different from yours.
What is the truth?
The truth is that markets are manipulated each day, each session (Asian, European, American).
Why markets are manipulated?
They are manipulated because there are subjects that are here to make real profits, and these subjects have enough money to move markets.
Who are they?
They are banks, smart money, market makers, institutionals.
Who are we?
We are retail traders.
It's not important who moves the market, it's important to understand how, when, why these subjects do what they do.
From now I will call them as banks.
We can start from what I said, banks are here to make profits.
Now you should ask yourself, how do banks make profits?
Banks make profits playing with us, with our emotions, our habits.
Banks know how we think, they know our weaknesses.
An important thing to remember is that humans need more than one confirmation to make a choice.
Make money on market is 80% psychological and 20% hard work to understand.
The 20% hard work is to understand the 80% psychology of retail traders.
Market is made of cycles, when someone is buying, someone is selling.

That is all for today, I want say that I'm not a professional trader, I'm 23 years old, self-taught.
During this thread I will post more theory and some charts, maybe all day, it depends on my free time.
Hope you will enjoy that, have a good weekend!

Alessandro

Markets are manipulated!!??? No way! This is a conspiracy theory!
Next thing you ll tell us is that wars are made for oil, money and selling weapons and not for the global peace!

There 4 important phases that are always playing in markets:
-accumulation (loading longs)
-mark up (profit release)
-distribution (loading shorts)
-mark down (profit release)
I saw in many books that accumulation and distribution are rapresented with a consolidation zone, but I've learned that this is not true.
They can accumulate during down move, they can distribute during up move.
The theory behind that is: they (banks) need liquidity because they trade huge orders.
There is only one method to create liquidity and it's to induce retail traders on a wrong way, catch their stop losses and limit orders, so now that they have the liquidity they can move the market.


Alessandro

Interesting, please proceed...

alexx90, consider this, assuming there is an entity controling the market, what if you could come to him and ask where does he wants the market to go? (e.g. up, down, static) ...


[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]Now what about his answer, is his answer what he really wants to happened?[/highlight]

[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]or [/highlight]

[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]Is his answer veiled, or opposed to what he really wants to happened?[/highlight]


[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]In the first case, wouldn't we be talking about a market being commanded? and in the second, is that what you would call manipulation ?[/highlight]


[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]Now, if, in the second case, if you could know what is the real intention, not opened reviled, would you consider your self being manipulated?[/highlight]

You have all chances to make profits on market because you are a retail trader, and why is it important? It is important because to bet the market you have to know how retail traders are thinking.
Are you a retail trader?
Yes, now it's time to switch on professional mode.
The difference is that you will use your knowledge to bet your mates.
It's like a game to survive where you could improve yourself more and more.
Ok let's start with some real examples.
I use few indicators:
-simple moving average 100 and simple moving average 200
-pivot
-mid pivot
-day range
-fibonacci
-session indicator
Why do I use indicators?
I use them to find confluence. Confluence? Yes confluence of retail trader orders.
I have to find key level where there are stop losses and limit orders.
Why?
Because banks want to push the price inside that zone to catch orders, create liquidity and then move the market in their favor.
So now, over indicators I use some psychological points:
-yesterday high and low
-previous session high and low (this is important because during each session banks set high and low)
-previous swing high and low
-previous pushes up or down (this is a indication to forecast future pushes)
Ok and now?
Now that we know these points we have to understand what usually happens.
Around these points you will see the market goes through and then retrace immediatly.
It's like a pin bar but you are more accurate, you will wait for confirmation because sometimes pin bar is false.
I'll show some examples.





Alessandro

Subscribed. Please go on.

Rejection on key level is called stop run, what I said, banks push price around a key level, catch stops and limit orders, then move the market.
If banks want go down, first they push price up to a key level, catch retail traders orders, then push down.
If banks want go up, first they push price down to a key level, catch retail traders orders, then push up.
This manipulation occurs usually during London, but you can see it also during Asia or New York.
There are not rules for that, they can move the market whenever they want wherever they have the money.
It's important to note correlations between sessions, I mean pay attention what session create liquidity and what session run for profit (mark up or mark down).
Sessions are correlated.

Alessandro

An example of manipulation.



One more.

Do you see how simple is to forecast retail traders psychology?

Alessandro

thats not a philosphy, thats a language whose effectiveness in describing the market is attributed to 'manipulation', but in reality thats false, its just the market dude

My dad believes in this theory and from a scale from 0 to 1 billion, its right up there in the billion range in terms of annoyingness.

I want $$$$$$$$$$, not false premises which create effectiveness.

Id rather believe that the truth of the market is that it is a virtual money tree which gives me money whenever I want.

Isnt that better? Isnt that more true?

An example of accumulation and trend reversal.


Alessandro

Ahaha if you want you could believe that Market exists to give you money whenever you want.

is it not a fact?

Do you have atemplate ?

Yes, here you go!
Remember to set i-Sessions indicator with your broker gmt.
I'm going out, it's saturday night!
Have a good weekend.

Alessandro

Hi Alex, you seem to suggest that the retail trader is the number one target for banks, but as far as I know retail traders make up a very small percentage of market participants and an even smaller percentage of the market turnover.

How does such a small target provide the liquidity the banks need in a $5 trillion a day market?

Hope you had a great evening.

yummmmm

I am with you in the belief that Market Markers have to move price to fulfill larger orders.. One way to do that is activate stop orders or entice others to trade on momentum. So price will always seek out liquidity. I am not one to use indicators very much but would like to check these out. In general, I use all means possible to track what institutional and retail traders are doing. In the end I stick with what I like the best but it is always a good exercise studying others and the market in general.

Cheers.

The only fact that I know is that markets are traps.

When someone is buying, someone is selling. Larger orders need buyers or sellers. This is what I think, if you have a different theory please tell us.