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We were fools to believe candlesticks can predict

  • #141
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:15am Nov 1, 2013 8:15am
Quoting cat
{quote} For starters, your post doesn't make any sense whatsoever, and if you truly believe that ultimately we're all fuxxxd, including you, then what in heaven's name are you doing here?

Agreed Cat-sounds like one of those zen trading gurus-then drill down to what he's saying and it's actually-ummmm-what?!

To summarise, as other people have, candlesticks are effective. But not in isolation. Have to be other factors as well-price and possibly another indicator (last one is up to you). Some candlesticks are better than others at showing interest in a area of interest in price. That is all.
  • #142
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:18am Nov 1, 2013 8:18am
Or perhaps your correlative factors just make you a bigger target.. Hm.. Sometimes maybe
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #143
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:25am Nov 1, 2013 8:25am
Quoting cat
{quote} hat ultimately we're all fuxxxd, including you, then what in heaven's name are you doing here?
And that's not what I said either, that's how a cat read it
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #144
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:28am Nov 1, 2013 8:28am
candlestick are exceptional tool, but to use them properly need to know how to read Japanese, or do it yourself.

I only use dojis but in very specific market conditions (sentiment & fundamental).

As japs say, reading candlestick is art or something along these lines.
  • #145
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:04am Nov 1, 2013 9:04am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} This is where a wolf draws the line .
You been watching too much pulp fiction?
  • #146
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:15am Nov 1, 2013 9:15am
Reading this back... the "wolf" has a point but the patronizing approach isn't the best.
  • #147
  • Nov 1, 2013 11:29am Nov 1, 2013 11:29am
when i start forex, the introduction says that this market is like self fulfilling prophecy.
eg:
when buyer is many, price goes up, thus they profit .
indicator works because many trader using it.

and so what i think is, this would be a friendly places where people will support each other to make things works.
surely it only last for seconds.
  • #148
  • Nov 1, 2013 12:30pm Nov 1, 2013 12:30pm
I don't believe technical analysis is pointless in a whole but i think it needs to be used with other mediums such as fundamental analyis too. I was speaking to a bank trader the other day and he said he doesn't even use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. They just look for volumes and the right time to jump in. The biggest fallacy about trading in general is that the big players like banks and hedge funds have some kind of magical edge or technical theory when in hindsight they don't and it's home based traders (like the ones on this forum) which sometimes make things more complicated than they are.
  • #149
  • Nov 1, 2013 12:49pm Nov 1, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting ReyesWhite
I don't believe technical analysis is pointless in a whole but i think it needs to be used with other mediums such as fundamental analyis too. I was speaking to a bank trader the other day and he said he doesn't even use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. They just look for volumes and the right time to jump in. The biggest fallacy about trading in general is that the big players like banks and hedge funds have some kind of magical edge or technical theory when in hindsight they don't and it's home based traders (like the ones on this forum)...
A couple of points you make need to be cleared up here. Firstly about banks and the traders that work for them, cannot be compared in any way shape or form with retail traders such as those on this forum. They are playing in the millions or billions of dollars and do not have the same money management restrictions. I have two friends, one of which had his own hedge fund, and the other who worked as a trader for a large bank, both of whom lost their jobs in the recent financial crisis. They decided they'd try and trade forex, but were simply not able to make any money at all, only lose it. But on this forum I know for a fact that there are some really excellent full time traders who have been trading for years and have got it down to a fine art. How? By learning how to do it by way of technical analysis, sound fundamental knowledge, and strict money management. Yes I agree with you that many traders make trading harder than it should be by loading their charts up with indicators they neither fully understand or need, but that doesn't mean that there are not others who know exactly what they are doing and make a great deal of money day in day out. As my ex trader friend said to me a couple of years ago, " any idiot can work for a bank, but to be a successful retail trader, well, that's something else".
  • #150
  • Nov 1, 2013 2:16pm Nov 1, 2013 2:16pm
"The retail crowd is usually several decades late to the party.When Seykota was testing his moving average system,wallstreet had no use for computers or mechanical trading.Systematic traders perfected the art of MM,the turtle system and other similar trendfollowing strategies when traded in the decade of the 60s-70s would have grown capital by a factor of over 1,000,000 times(ed seykota,Richard dennis actually did it)!!!!! its incredible,they were gods,all of em.

T.A was also hot when very few used it and it was largely a secret,until the T.A books did them in.

I have never heard anyone who made mega cash reading candlesticks,from Schwartz to Rotter.Maybe Al Brooks and James16 ...from teaching that is LOL!

In the next 10 yrs we will be having hundreds of newbs asking how to create HFT algos,10 years after it was hot.....

ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE MARKETS FIND YOU OUT....ESPECIALLY IF YOU USE CONVENTIONAL TOOLS.

"I have been in the speculative game ever since I was fourteen. It is all I have ever done. I
think I know what I am talking about. And the conclusion that I have reached after
nearly thirty years of constant trading, both on a shoestring and with millions of dollars
back of me, is this: A man may beat a stock or a group at a certain time, but no man
living can beat the stock market! A man may make money out of individual deals in
cotton or grain, but no man can beat the cotton market or the grain market. It's like the
track. A man may beat a horse race, but he cannot beat horse racing.
If I knew how to make these statements stronger or more emphatic I certainly would. It
does not make any difference what anybody says to the contrary. I know I am right in
saying these are incontrovertible statements" Jesse Livermore
- 108
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #151
  • Nov 1, 2013 3:33pm Nov 1, 2013 3:33pm
very well put

Quoting hanover
{quote} That's what I meant in my final paragraph in post #105: that different people use words like \"random\" and \"predict\" differently, and it causes great misunderstandings in discussions like this. I assume that when Rtm says \"random\", he doesn't necessarily mean that price movement is a completely random walk; and when he says \"predict\", he means that it's impossible to make statements like \"I can predict with 100% certainty that EURUSD will close at exactly 1.37705 tomorrow\". Like many other comments that I've read, he apparently...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #152
  • Nov 1, 2013 4:00pm Nov 1, 2013 4:00pm
Hi F which candle do you currently believe on the weekly ?


Quoting Fudomyo
{quote} You picked one of the most volatile instruments during a whipsaw week in a hellish zone on the chart, but that's actually good to use as an example about the reliability of candlestick charts. Here are my charts of the same time period. The areas you labeled as fakes on your chart aren't fakes because they take place inside an established accumulation area. A hammer or doji will often form in an accumulation off SR levels towards the consolidation center line, so they shouldn't be mistaken as longer term directional signals. A fake is typically...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #153
  • Nov 1, 2013 4:16pm Nov 1, 2013 4:16pm
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} This is where a wolf draws the line and calls you all out for making statements of any kind. That's where you're all wrong, believing that what you say is correct or has any merit whatsoever. The market will simply find a way to fk all of you in the long run. It's economically necessary, and completely tradable. Everyone wants to box a market, but a markets sole purpose is to \"un- box\" itself.

Quoting cat
{quote} For starters, your post doesn't make any sense whatsoever, and if you truly believe that ultimately we're all fuxxxd, including you, then what in heaven's name are you doing here?
Cat, I think you will find the sense in the last statement of Wolf's paragraph. "Everyone wants to box a market, but a markets sole purpose is to "un- box" itself"

Loosely translated it boils down to a simple statement. The market's methods of exercising it's true "zero-sum" game of taking money from the weak to build the mansions of the strong is dynamic and constantly evolving. Once the small fish figure out how to squeeze a burger and soft drink out of the markets, the big fish come along and change the game. It's all one big venus fly trap.

What Wolf has either failed to realize or state in his less that tactful post is that the fox cannot and never will fool all the chickens all the time. If you're good enough and nimble enough to change with the market and adapt to the new games the fox plays, you (the chicken) will survive. If you think you have found "the" system and stick to it, you will become another victim, and yes... you will be f##ked in the long run.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #154
  • Nov 1, 2013 4:21pm Nov 1, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
I'm not laughing One of the best pieces of advice I ever received from a fellow trader was this; Start by lowering your expectations to a win rate of 50%. At 50% immediately you are forced to do a few things; Your Trades: - let winners run - cut losses short - put s/l in a place that gives your trade the best possible chance - look for good r:r - be selective with your trades Your Mindset: - accepting that chance of loss is high, and planning for it - accepting as per your thread title that \"knowing\" is a fools game - realizing that you don't...
Bravo
I give credit where credit is due and this post is good.
As for the rest that I have actually read, well "No comment".
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #155
  • Edited 6:37pm Nov 1, 2013 6:16pm | Edited 6:37pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Bravo I give credit where credit is due and this post is good. As for the rest that I have actually read, well \"No comment\".
Like I said in my post it was advice given to me, the advantages I listed were the light bulbs I came to realize very quickly. And if you can appreciate the brilliance in that post, despite it's simplicity then I would say you've been trading a while.

Quoting TranceTrader
Reading this back... the \"wolf\" has a point but the patronizing approach isn't the best.
Deleted unnecessary comments but Ty Pip Trapper and Trance trader, no disrespect cat.

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} What Wolf has either failed to realize or state in his less that tactful post is that the fox cannot and never will fool all the chickens all the time. If you're good enough and nimble enough to change with the market and adapt to the new games the fox plays, you (the chicken) will survive. If you think you have found \"the\" system and stick to it, you will become another victim, and yes... you will be f##ked in the long run.
I was just trying to say that it is generally useful to the 5% that most traders seek an expectancy that doesn't exist, and lose their money before they realize or probably don't even realize.

Traders chasing that "I am right", "this is the way", "I am good", "I am smart" feeling. When really they are just .. "There"

Dust in the breeze, paper in the wind
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #156
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:55pm Nov 1, 2013 7:55pm
The method means more than the candle. Contrary to many opinions, a good method is timeless
and need not be changed. Therefore, you do not skip from "this to that method" but merely adjust to the
prevailing "status quo"".

As an example; below is posted an example of a trend change. I've seen the same "time after time".
Only your thoughts need be changed. As in; you need to change your method because times are different
now. Wrong! The method remains the same, only the reasons why change.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: newsep.png Size: 48 KB
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #157
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:10pm Nov 1, 2013 8:10pm
And those reversals. Somewhere 'round here maybe.

Time after time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: reverse.png Size: 50 KB
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #158
  • Jun 9, 2014 12:16pm Jun 9, 2014 12:16pm
CandleStick's are The Most Important Part of Analysing Markets and Anyone Think They are Useless,I'm Pretty Sure That Guy is An Idiot
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #159
  • Jun 9, 2014 12:37pm Jun 9, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting AmirShahiN
CandleStick's are The Most Important Part of Analysing Markets and Anyone Think They are Useless,I'm Pretty Sure That Guy is An Idiot
i must be that idiot lol
candlesticks are full of deception, besides they ALL vary according to the time zone on MT4
even on the Daily and Wkly as some start at 12am others whenever they like

so not much use if they say a different thing at GMT+1 or GMT+3 etc
pin bars up or down are about the only use of candlesticks and even those fail, esp normal pin bars at bottoms
although upside down pin bars at tops would be my favorite, but always confirmed with a downtrend entry indicator
  • #160
  • Jun 9, 2014 12:55pm Jun 9, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting Carlsberg
{quote} i must be that idiot lol candlesticks are full of deception, besides they ALL vary according to the time zone on MT4 even on the Daily and Wkly as some start at 12am others whenever they like so not much use if they say a different thing at GMT+1 or GMT+3 etc pin bars up or down are about the only use of candlesticks and even those fail, esp normal pin bars at bottoms although upside down pin bars at tops would be my favorite, but always confirmed with a downtrend entry indicator
One Simple Question,How You wana Predict The Future of Price With just Single Candle Patterns like Hammer or doji or Engulfing Pattern Which Created from 3 Candles ? Tell me How About The Rest Of The Candles ? Daily Candle is Created from 24 H 1 Candle What About Rest Of Theme ?
are Those Past Candles Bullshit ? Are They in Charts for Being Pretty ? Or There is A lot Of Data on theme ?
You Must Love CandleSticks
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