The Club!

My scalping chart on EA.

EURUSD, Daily, 2013 October 30
Short @ 1.3763 (2x), Target @ 1.3707 (DS1)

I am aiming 150-300 pips rally on gold on FOMC, here is my view however it should go trough that resistance of 1366. The question is where to find good long entry now ahead of FOMC. This could be easiest trade in whole November as long as decent entry is made.

http://prntscr.com/20roy7


And here is GJ view. GJ on FOMC makes spiky spikes, its usually very good to trade pullbacks.

http://prntscr.com/20rqdp

I'm all set for FOMC to go either way.

I have covered all my "in the money" E/U & G/U positions as well as a couple of U/W ones which still avg me out in the green.
I have set my numerous AUD/NZD longs at BE+50 except for the one at 1.1515 which is set to SL at 1.1385
My EUR/AUD short from 1.4489 has an SL at 1.4535
The only ones floating without SL are my SPX500 shorts which are 1766.6, 1692.4, 1660.0 & 1642.9 with an avg at 1690.3

Now if the market goes all apeshit on risk appetite and send the Dollar to hell, I'll suffer some losses but come out unscathed.
If on the other hand the market does not think that the Fed is any more dovish than last time, or if they are less dovish, then all my existing positions move clearly into profit and I laugh all the way to the bank.

Some may call this a gamble, but I assure you it is not.

Why?
Because all risk currencies and equity indices are overbought and the dollar is oversold. So, unless the FOMC makes it very clear that they will keep their pedal to the metal for a specified period of time past March 2014, upside in risk will be very limited if there is any upside at all.

The alternative possibilities (out of the most probable) are as follows...
1. Fed announces that any future taper will be tied to data on a month by month basis. In that case there is still a chance for taper to start in December. (USD Bullish)
2. Fed announces that they will make an economic assessment regarding tapering when they release new projections in December (USD neutral to slightly bullish)
3. Fed announces that they may start tapering anywhere between January and March 2014 (USD neutral)
4. Fed announces that tapering will not even be considered until the fiscal issues in DC are fully resolved. (USD Bearish)
5. Fed makes absolutely no mention of taper and basically issue the same standard statement that they will increase/decrease asset purchases as required (USD neutral to bearish)
6. If the Fed changes the goal posts, as in that they introduce new or modified data targets, then that could throw a wrench in the works as the market digests the consequences of such change. At that point it's anybody's guess.

The above is based on the following assumptions.
1. The market has already mostly priced in the expectation that the Fed will not start tapering until April 2014.
2. The market has already priced in the current underperformance of EZ and UK econ data.
3. The Fed statement does not make any extremely dovish or hawkish statements regarding the US economy as compared to previous statements.

In case the above assumptions are off, then the projected outcomes of each scenario I mentioned above has to be adjusted up or down accordingly.

I don't have a crystal ball, so anything can happen. However, this is how I see it. This analysis is not meant as a signal on how to trade the FOMC release. It is only my opinion and I am sharing it as an opinion only.

Keep in mind also that tomorrow is month end, and the way the USD has been bashed in the last 40 days may actually produce month end flows back into USD. However, come Friday, month end won't play into the equation any more and it's back to business as usual with flows according to the outcome/contents of the FOMC statement. It could also be argued that month end flows too place yesterday and today in order to get them all squared off before the FOMC statement.

So buckle up your seatbelts. This could be a rough ride, but then again it could turn out to be a non-event. Only Benny and the boys know for sure at this time.

Best of luck.

so I should be glad that I banked ~$6 off my afternoon sell, but annoyed that I didn't buy more at LO.......

Always a good idea to bank what you can before FOMC releases... or NFP for that matter.
Congrats on the $6

Yes good job Islander.
Alright i am getting inside crash car now, no airbag in it though (no SL on long).

Now if the market goes all apeshit on risk appetite and send the Dollar to hell.....

I may sell some more...Eu's on the next rally up into the end of the week...having said that I lowered the exposure taking sm profits yesterday..cn we will c the shtf (shit hit the fan) either way I deal with it...i have the feeling it may rally ...but feelings don't count...in the markets...only in ...and that may not be a good idea neither...

Haha. Now there's a diehard bear for you. You're competing with me on that.

Thanks guys - this trader has good ideas about how trade gold with hedging.....The Rhodie in the XAU thread.....I've a small speculative long from 1350....

Edit: which I closed for another $5 just before the FOMC .....luckily....

I'm looking for a rise in gold from 1354.95 to go north. With an hedge, I can get the market to unhedge me and go screaming up taking my net profit with it to the new HoD chased by a Sell Stop instead of a hard stop. Simultaneously with the reverse happening, it will also get me short back into my hedge and trigger a TP at 1342 from my short @1349.5.

Stronly advise watching USD:JPY for signal on 1 min chart spanning US open and pm sessions for perspective.

Friends,
Market assessment for wallstreet atm. :

Buying pressure is dry-ing up and currently is in preparation for pullback (not reversal though).


NASDAQ BP Index


S&P500 BP Index

Ah.....well i am glad it was small lot on Gold, still hurts nicely as it eaten my weekly profits away. Funny you can be certain in what bullshit will Fed give away in release but market reaction can still go into imperial levels of idiocracy. Well at least now we know where EU will go.

lol my broker just donated 7k usd to me

Yeah!!! Good going and congrats

You too PT!

busy ltr...

eurusd.. sl is 8 pips

http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/960235...hant-financial