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How FX options can affect spot price heading in to expiration

  • #81
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:52am Oct 30, 2013 1:52am
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  • #82
  • Oct 30, 2013 8:28am Oct 30, 2013 8:28am
Half an hour away from expiration and Aud/Usd is stuck to .9500

Option said to be worth around 1 Billion AUD.
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  • #83
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:13am Oct 30, 2013 9:13am
I take it the sell order from the previous post was not related?
  • #84
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:41am Oct 30, 2013 9:41am
Its on my trade explorer. Short at 9496 & 9500, using the bears above 9500 to place my stop behind @ 9517. Now that the option has expired, I expect A/U to go lower as that option was keeping the pair well-bid.
  • #85
  • Mar 30, 2014 12:21am Mar 30, 2014 12:21am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{image}{image}
crap!! what an amazing observation master EmeraldEyes great!!

im lucky, i've found this thread..

keep posting master

some questions wandered in my mind.. with data from http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/0...-cut-28-march/
or maybe Dark Star forex news site, we could learn some option leverl price expires and its volume.. but can we get this data earlier?
get the data from http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g...s_options.html ??

here 's some pic.. hope some heart kind trader would explain how to read this pic..
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  • #86
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:10am Mar 30, 2014 3:10am
Quoting wongpasar
{quote} crap!! what an amazing observation master EmeraldEyes great!! im lucky, i've found this thread.. keep posting master some questions wandered in my mind.. with data from http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/0...-cut-28-march/ or maybe Dark Star forex news site, we could learn some option leverl price expires and its volume.. but can we get this data earlier? get the data from http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g...s_options.html ?? here 's some pic.....
You need this info (plain vanilla options) in the day of expiry. If these are barrier options, you need the info earlier.
  • #87
  • Mar 30, 2014 7:33am Mar 30, 2014 7:33am
I was reading this thread the other day so was interested to see it come up in the recently commented on area, I have also noticed price action like this many times. It seems to me the most straightforward way to play it is to look for where the early London session has moved the price away from the key option level and to look for entries in from just before the US open or 1 hour before the cut- with a target of the level acting as a magnet for the price. The difficult part would be working out which is the key level and whether the price will be pushed under or over it, although it's maybe best to just look for the price being drawn to around the level from further out.

Interested to hear any other thoughts on this area anyway, I'm going to try and find the time to investigate further.
  • #88
  • Mar 30, 2014 8:00am Mar 30, 2014 8:00am
Quoting srmfx
{quote} You need this info (plain vanilla options) in the day of expiry. If these are barrier options, you need the info earlier.
you are right mr srmfx.. if we could get the data about expiring options price level on daily basis... only just non vanilla option.. this could be great..

one question again.. wandered in my mind.. i've found this thread.. a very great one..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...el%20indicator

will this indi would work as barrier options level? or this is just vanilla option??

this indi show some call/put options level with volume too..
  • #89
  • Jul 18, 2015 10:10am Jul 18, 2015 10:10am
so most interest forum post thread i've seen but haven't learned anything.
Is theere any service that gives 100% pure options /exotics orderflow or not? if not - whats the use
  • #90
  • Jul 22, 2015 8:08pm Jul 22, 2015 8:08pm
according the the BIS Triennial CB survey the options market makes up less than 6% with spot around 38%.. I've heard Paul Wilmot or some quants mention that derivatives actually have begun moving the underlying (spot fx) but how can we tell if trading options open interest orderflow is even sensible if it only maks up less than 6% of the energy moving price?
  • #91
  • Jul 23, 2015 4:30am Jul 23, 2015 4:30am
Quoting srmfx
{quote} You need this info (plain vanilla options) in the day of expiry. If these are barrier options, you need the info earlier.
i got wiped on a barrier option the other day where do you get that orderflow beforehand?
  • #92
  • Oct 12, 2015 3:43am Oct 12, 2015 3:43am
anyone still continue to trading with this method ? I have account with Saxo bank. the only problem is I can't trade Spread Vertical analysis in SAXO, because They don't square the position - mean - the Selling Options act as naked options. I am trying to buying the options or insured my spot position with options, anyone can help me with this ?, please advice..
  • #93
  • Oct 12, 2015 3:52am Oct 12, 2015 3:52am
Daily expirations as reported by the DTCC. What about plain vanilla options that are written as derivatives and off DTCC?
  • #94
  • Nov 26, 2022 10:09pm Nov 26, 2022 10:09pm
Quoting srmfx
{quote} I mean exactly long strangle. Volatility goes down before the option expiration at NY cut, because the pair trades in a tight range. I expect increase in volatility after the large option expires.
This is good information, for traders who like momentum trading, It could be used as a sort of breakout from the range at that time of day. (3PM GMT)
  • #95
  • Last Post: Dec 2, 2022 4:53am Dec 2, 2022 4:53am
If the option expires, the contract is useless to the buyer, and he loses the premium if they are out of the funds.The buyer will be able to exercise the option and take a position in the market if they have funds. And the counter-party in the ongoing option trade will become contract seller.
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