Need a little fix for that trading plan

I have set the 5V to reduce the noise, but if you think you can make a constructive comment-post, you can do it with PM or even from my buddy list.

The trading plan is relative simple: I am starting positions against last movement. Other are using Pivot levels, but at Oanda-s chart those pivots indicator are horible. Only the las value should be there. At Android Mt4 platform I can't use it, so it is invisible for me. For example: if the price touch the Resistance 1 or 2 level than I start a long ( when the price move down enough down) I will see, hope when to get out. Sometimes 10 pip, sometimes 20, sometimes 40. Usually I see when the price don't want to make a move or want to make a break ( some Momentum value ) I will close my position often to soon, because of fear to not turn in loosing one.
Sometimes the price instantly moves against me, than mostly I will wait until stop and I will add to my loosing position. This behaviour is from Oanda trading, because he didn't let me to hedge positions. Sometimes I will close in BE, sometimes in profit. Usually I can make profit 2-3 month consecutive, with very-very high win rate: over 60% , sometimes even 90% Last time I had 20 consec wins and after that 1 loss. According to this win rate I have adjusted a bit the leverage: 1:5 to 1:10 for first position and around the same for second, third. With this I can see a floating -20% of my capital. Around -30% I am thinking to close, if I am wrong. Not so often happen to have -30%. Monthly gain is around -10 to +30%, usually around +20%. I read about somebody, who trade at banks, with very big money and 10 pip TP and 90 pip SL. And here it ends the rose part, coming the black one:

Every time, when I close a position which is not an average, than has a massive draw down: -20% -30% or even more...- 50% happent.
It happens from 0.5% max 2% of my trade the price will break out from a channel, without backtest, without any back movement, just a push up, consolidation and push up again and consolidation ( I am eating my fingers already ) and maybe a push up again. From this it would be protected, if I would use a SL or a lower leverage.

If I would use a SL than I am unprotected from broker virtual spikes and those news release spikes which stay for 1h max, mostly 5 min. Except broker virtual spikes it can be helpfully to get out finally from a wrong position.

If I lover my leverage under optimum, than in a long term I am trading with half steam, half efficiently.
Same for long term: it will happen once.... who know when, when I will have a couple of series of loosing trades. And I am happy as it happent right now with live account, with relieve small money. It could be happent, when I was with a lot more:


We can see the Eur/Usd was in a range for 2 weeks, than he tried to get out and got it. There are fundamentals for this news. I was expecting for thins move to happen around 1-2 weeks before and I couldn't understand why isn't rainsing this pair once USA is headless. Than it was a push to down and I was scared and I took an exit with -16% -so it is not hard to push the close button, while I am loosing.

But now: series of loose trades and I am out of business? - sounds a bit childish. Lower the leverage and make only 5% / month... doesn't sound a good business, at least for me. I don't want 100% each month, but if under 10% than I need to start looking for a regular business.

I know only a bit I am missing somewhere, but can't see clearly where.

Your advice it would be helpfully, because you are outside and not emotionally implicated, but only if you explain your vision as I can understand it.

Thank you for your effort to make a try.

Looks as though you're averaging losers which let ride as they don't have any stop losses and cutting any winning trades short. Try to make consistently positive pips. Once you can achive that, then manage your lot size, optimum R:R, ect. Right now your average loser is much higher than the average winner.


Why did you decide to sell the Euro and long the US Dollar on Oct 17th? Fundamentals that day was that the US Dollar was being sold across the board upon the US's debt ceiling deal not being reached in time the night before.

Thanks for reply.


Around that day the Eur reached the Febr 1 maximum. To reach it of course need some fundamentals. Now is at 2 year high. I would sell again, and maybe it will g up to 1.3950 - 1.4. Sometimes there is no consolidation at top, as how it was at february1 he will just reach a point and sharp turn to other direction.
With this plan in intraday I can make 1-2 winner trades with 10-20 pip profit. Around -60 pip -80 pip I will start averaging, if I see no strong fundamental sign otherwise I will close. I am not so good in news analys and see what has a long term impact - form news, which isn not at calendar. Eg. Speaker X Y said some bull shit: usually a 70- 200 pip spike for 10 min, 3 days and everything is like normal. Those many times are hitting my SL if is under 100 pip and no reason to set it.

"Right now your average loser is much higher than the average winner. " Around 3x times. but winner looser ratio sometimes even 90:10.

http://www.forexfactory.com/matheszabi#67-report here is 95.5% at other is 81.9%

If the winner-looser ratio is 80% only, than the optimum risk per trade is: 60% ! This is math, you can't argue with this
Now I lost the software what I made, there are a pair for risk below and above. Eg if the optimum is at 60% than if you risk only 40% will give the same result as risking 70% - this values not exact - but I know it is a point when increasing the leverage will turn the result to 0, let say at 90%.
I got that graphic drawn by hand:


But very sour when I see 3-4x consecutive looses with 30-60% drawdown, I can't argue with that. Has a low chanse, but in long term: from 2000 -5000 trades it will be there.

For a simple binary outcome (win X or lose Y), the optimal bet size is E/R. Where E is the expectancy of your system and R the R:R.
Your win rate is 0.8: E = 0.8(R+1)-1=0.8R-0.2
For a bet size E/R=0.6, solving in R gives R=1.

Your statement is true only if your R:R>=1. You write that you take profit at best at 40 pips but let the losers go -60 then you add onto the loser. You RRR is way smaller than 1.

I just wanted to fix the maths. Regarding the rest of the strategy there are many things to say against... So I will just shut up. This is your own responsibility.

96% win rate for the acct traded for 10 days, 95% in the account that was traded for 2 weeks, 82% in acct that was traded for less than 2 months. Obviously these aren't consistent bc the longer you trade, the further they drop. Try making consistent pips first. You should be able to make positive pips every single month, rarely have a losing week.


Eur/Usd is not the same as it was 8 months ago. Comparing it to then doesn't make sense. On Oct 17th the US gov went over the debt ceiling and no compromise was met. Debates were delayed til Feb. This is very bearish for the Dollar. February highs or not, E/U is going to go up.

This is a very messy trading plan. "when" you go -60 -80 you'll start averaging? If price will go that far against a position that you think won't have any drawdown.. then that's a strong fundamental sign in itself. How about that the Federal Reserve sees no tapering soon & the debt ceiling talks will be back in the media within 4 months. I think you're looking at the charts too much. There is no optimal SL/TP ratio or any level for that matter. Try taking a step back and see whats happening in the world right now, then start to envision what could happen if certain events by the world banks took place.

Thanks, it is true, when I did the math the R:R was 1:1 because it was simple to calculate, now I need to re do calcs with my data, good point!

Very helpfully is somebody from outside of my head will say: Hey foul can't you see what are you doing?

Mostly agree with you and thanks for helping. This is a good point, but:
Sooner or later will begin the Cyprus, Greece circus again. Euro will drop to 1.28 again. Nothing improved in EU.
This is just politician, banker speaker game. I am very sure they make a deal: Eur will be down for 6 month than 6 months up, so everybody can win.
Also: at news release sometimes it is / was first a spike and than a counter spike. For some reason in this days before news release with a few seconds - minutes the price is going in that direction where will be going after news release. => bigger players receiving this info a bit sooner, with 1-2 min?

"Try making consistent pips first."
- tell for the Market to move consistently Since is moving somewhat randomly with variable height of waves I can't make the same amount profit / trade , / month.

A couple of years ago I have tested the 10 pip TP /SL , the 20/20 40/40 70/70, 100/100 and so on. Many,many, to many times I saw the trend has no steam to reach my TP and is missing only 3% of movement and become a SL, many times. I don't want to play again the "set and forget" style.

With R:R 1:1 there is a good win:loose ratio, in 10-40 pip range, maybe not 95, but around or above 60%.
If I take after the Books with 1:3 R:R, than I need to wait long, and neither those are 100%winner trades, so I don't understand why to not take the 1:1 with 60% probability too.

Because it has multiple setups, exits, can be messy for others but this is my style, which what I am comfortable. Other trade plans with written rules and 1 enter and 1-2 exit is more stressfully and need 3-4 diff account to trade. Better I trade 3-4 plans in 1 account, because: If I play with to much account and there is a market change I will close positions, pending orders, but it happent to forget to cancel a pending order, which was triggered... => I will use 1 account only.

Its dangerous to know that the Eur/Usd exchange rate will drop 1000 pips from where it is. What will make the dollar strengthen that much against the Euro though? The USD is the reason the Eur/Usd exchange rate is high right now.
Market makers that provide liquidity start pulling their orders during times of higher risk, like before data release. During that time price is easily moved with orders that are set to consume liquidity on either buy or sell side.

Make it a goal to consistently make positive pips for at least 9 out of 12 months. That's not much to ask. 0< net pips per month. Dont set profit limits unless you like to make less than what is possible. Keep your losses small and winners as high.

At the first sight I tough it will be enough to take the open close prices and calculate the pips done ( positive or negative) and calculate the optimum leverage.

This will give an fake number in my case, because the price is not going directly on that position, where it was closed.

In this example there is a positive pip, but almost wiped my account, so need to take a summ of opened trades somehow.



I still would be interested how can I calculate the optimum leverage for an existing closed trade series properly.

For sure I need the Balance, open-close dates, prices, historical data of currency: to get the floating drawdown, the margin requirements at broker: to calculate the margin calls. Actually all this data has the FF's trade explorer