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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #43,681
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:43pm Oct 28, 2013 6:43pm
Quoting kinky
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwVq_xtoY6A[/url]
555555555
i like.

regards
  • #43,682
  • Oct 29, 2013 4:56am Oct 29, 2013 4:56am
Amazing!
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  • #43,683
  • Oct 29, 2013 7:02pm Oct 29, 2013 7:02pm
Quoting fti
... Leonardo Da vincci who fostered the fabonacci principles,....
Sir, I believe that that was actually (quoting Wikipedia here..) Leonardo Pisano Bigollo (c. 1170 – c. 1250)– known as Fibonacci, and also Leonardo of Pisa, Leonardo Pisano, Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo Fibonacci – was an Italian mathematician, considered by some "the most talented western mathematician of the Middle Ages". Da Vinci was almost excusively an artist and inventor.

Having shot you down there, I agree with your sentiment. Nobody can foretell the future with any number of indicators. The only thing we have is 20/20 hindsight and the present to estimate what we think may possibly occur. The market is only going to move in 2 of three ways at any point: forwards and either up or down. The analytics are for reference to what happened "last time" a set of circumstances presented a pattern, trend, crystal ball, tarot card or kidney of unblemished goat... hang on, those actually work, don't they? I mean the fractal planes converge in a symmetrical pattern resulting in a divergence of Fibonacci ratios that culminate in a pretty pattern that looks like modern business art, or something like that.

A funny thought to make you all laugh: trading is a serious game of cat and mouse. Are you cat or mouse? When the bears are strong, the market runs. When the bears are hungry, the bulls run.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #43,684
  • Oct 29, 2013 7:17pm Oct 29, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Sir, I believe that that was actually (quoting Wikipedia here..) Leonardo Pisano Bigollo (c. 1170 – c. 1250)– known as Fibonacci, and also Leonardo of Pisa, Leonardo Pisano, Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo Fibonacci – was an Italian mathematician, considered by some \\"the most talented western mathematician of the Middle Ages\\". Da Vinci was almost excusively an artist and inventor. Having shot you down there, I agree with your sentiment. Nobody...
wow, congrats! after 6 years of this thread you think you are the first one to "correct" this "mistake"? have you even read till page 2 even or should i spell out your error to you?

the only thing you shot was yourself in the foot, now try and finish the race, you're still at the starting line.

what's so funny about your "funny thought"? I do not get your humor?

i'm the cat, you're the mouse. laugh at that.

you coming in here with guns drawn? don't be surprised at my reaction.
  • #43,685
  • Oct 29, 2013 10:55pm Oct 29, 2013 10:55pm
Get em tiger!! I'm with ya..

This line is what kinda got to me.
"Having shot you down there," That says "I'm feeling superiour" Kinda bugs me too.

Don't recall Fti claiming to be a historian. Just a trader.

They come and go. Been many.
  • #43,686
  • Oct 29, 2013 11:12pm Oct 29, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting fti
If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Chirchill.
\"That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time.\"
Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time.\"

One of the best things iv read in a while...
The Meek Shall Inherit The Earth...
  • #43,687
  • Oct 30, 2013 4:57am Oct 30, 2013 4:57am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Sir, I believe that that was actually (quoting Wikipedia here..) Leonardo Pisano Bigollo (c. 1170 – c. 1250)– known as Fibonacci, and also Leonardo of Pisa, Leonardo Pisano, Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo Fibonacci – was an Italian mathematician, considered by some \"the most talented western mathematician of the Middle Ages\". Da Vinci was almost excusively an artist and inventor. Having shot you down there, I agree with your sentiment. Nobody...
Try reading something properly before you quote on it.

FTI wrote Da Vinci fostered Fibbonacci principles.

Look up Da Vinci it is documented that he used Fibbonacci golden ratio.

Look up the definition of fostered :-to promote the growth or development of
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #43,688
  • Oct 30, 2013 5:18am Oct 30, 2013 5:18am
"Leonardo Da vincci who fostered the fabonacci principles" is correct

Inserted Video
  • #43,689
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:13am Oct 30, 2013 10:13am
I was reading about elliot waves and the Fibonacci sequence when something blew my mind!


Wave theory states that market cycle comprises 1 bull phase and 1 bear phase.
5 waves to the bull phase, 3 waves to the bear phase. Total 8.
This can be further subdivided into 21 waves and 13 waves. Total 34.
Further division for 144.

All of these numbers are in the Fibonacci sequence:
1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144!

and.. Golden Ratio 0.618 or 1.618 (phi).
21/34= 0.61765 and 34/21= 1.619
  • #43,690
  • Oct 30, 2013 12:29pm Oct 30, 2013 12:29pm
Hi All
Think that if we brought up the FIBO
Then here is some posts of FTI on this subject
may clear things out .

Link 1
Link 2
Link 3
Link 4
Link 5
Link 6
Link 7
Link 8
Link 9
Link 10

Its just a few there is many more on this subject
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #43,691
  • Oct 30, 2013 12:51pm Oct 30, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting Zoran
\"Leonardo Da vincci who fostered the fabonacci principles\" is correct http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fL5EYpo9kjk
i wonder how the wedding ring looks like! ahha
  • #43,692
  • Oct 30, 2013 5:40pm Oct 30, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting kinky
{quote} i wonder how the wedding ring looks like! ahha
haha i get it now.. but i still don't quite get it.

must be one huge rock.

man, how did you get that fti vouch? so jealous. haha
  • #43,693
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:37pm Oct 30, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} haha i get it now.. but i still don't quite get it. must be one huge rock. man, how did you get that fti vouch? so jealous. haha
you ask for it,he will give it to u,it is as simple as that.simple suggestion forget about this vouching business and concentrate on what the guy teaching,ie focus on ur mindset
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #43,694
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:20pm Oct 30, 2013 9:20pm
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} you ask for it,he will give it to u,it is as simple as that.simple suggestion forget about this vouching business and concentrate on what the guy teaching,ie focus on ur mindset
haha I like the fact that I am not vouched for by anyone, i am so not into the vouching business.

Don't get me wrong here, i wasn't being totally sarcastic in my reply to kinky, but it's only If I Did want vouches, then fti's vouch would be the first one i would want.

However, i do believe that my attitude somehow would prevent people from vouching me even if i gave great insight and advice. thanks drzakir! I did get some material from this thread that i will spend the next few days to look over.
  • #43,695
  • Oct 31, 2013 9:34am Oct 31, 2013 9:34am
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} you ask for it,he will give it to u,it is as simple as that.simple suggestion forget about this vouching business and concentrate on what the guy teaching,ie focus on ur mindset
i guess going through the material took me less time than i thought.

okay.. mindset.

fti needs not give me anything after giving everything in this thread already. i will take what I need and find what I want. I just think about being a good guest and paying respects to the host of this buffet.

yes, fine.. a vouch from any other one of you fine gentlemen here would be just as humbling for me.

a while ago, fti said he lost most of his respect for me, but this is forums. what is shown here is how i battle with words, keyboard warrior.

you tell me to work on mindset, which is not fair. i know my mindset is flawed, and i know i might never get it right, (sorry mom and dad).

then does that mean i should never get to learning about actual trading?

more and more of this thread is making sense to me now though.

you don't get to choose who you teach, if you only wanted to teach to those with the "right" mindset, how you going to filter out those? ESP? teach me that and I won't have to spend another second on trading. i will go directly to ward13 thank you very much.

Inserted Video
  • #43,696
  • Oct 31, 2013 12:40pm Oct 31, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} i guess going through the material took me less time than i thought. okay.. mindset. fti needs not give me anything after giving everything in this thread already. i will take what I need and find what I want. I just think about being a good guest and paying respects to the host of this b
genius is not in knowing everything but things that u ignore.God has created everyone the same with equal opportunities,its ur mindset of being humble and being grateful will decide whether ur successful or lost.when a person is humble in real sense then his mind will be open and he see things other ignore out of arrogance,u see, little things make lot of difference.dont speak too much,becos as my mother says tongue doesn't have a bone so it can move which ever way it can move and some time injuries by the wrongful use of tongue much more serious than physical wounds.also too much talking cloud your minds and one cant think clearly.so maintain ur centre as they say in zen by being mindful.ur still stuck and carrying fti,its all water under the bridge.dont be like that monk who was carrying the girl long after,let it go.apologies for being too patronising,thats not my intention.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #43,697
  • Oct 31, 2013 1:03pm Oct 31, 2013 1:03pm
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} haha i get it now.. but i still don't quite get it. must be one huge rock. man, how did you get that fti vouch? so jealous. haha
I dunno man, share, joke, discuss, learn, respect... Just by being friends, I guess.
  • #43,698
  • Oct 31, 2013 1:27pm Oct 31, 2013 1:27pm
no need to comment on the music video, just threw that out there.. no takers?

it's a type of mindset too, albeit different? I mean, who wouldn't want to be a successful rapper..

Quoting drzakir123
{quote} genius is not in knowing everything but things that u ignore.God has created everyone the same with equal opportunities,its ur mindset of being humble and being grateful will decide whether ur successful or lost.when a person is humble in real sense then his mind will be open and he see things other ignore out of arrogance,u see, little things make lot of difference.dont speak too much,becos as my mother says tongue doesn't have a bone so it can move which ever way it can move and some time injuries by the wrongful use of tongue much more...
understood.. i'm surprised at what i've found out these past couple days in this thread.. fibonacci and stuff.
and I think there's a reason I'm finding out about these things just now... because I am studying other things.

Quoting kinky
{quote} I dunno man, share, joke, discuss, learn, respect... Just by being friends, I guess.
yeah, well.. still jealous.

just kidding!
  • #43,699
  • Edited 7:36pm Nov 1, 2013 7:17pm | Edited 7:36pm
Hello everyone.

I was working on the skew, looking at the WW table fti posted way back when.
Just, wondering to myself what the math behind it was. some charting and graphing occurred (I haven't done high school maths in a while now haha)

and I would like to share a view...

so, an initial 50% loss requires a 100% return on leftover balance to return the account to BE.

the first question I had was, what skew should be used so that only a 50% gain would be needed to reach BE (what skew would make the %loss and %returns needed to be equal).

The number comes out to 2 in this case (original lot sizex2), so that if you doubled your lot size when you reached an initial 50% loss, only 50% of the 50% loss (25%) would needed to recover the account to BE.

for other numbers:
20% loss of initial capital requires 25% return on leftover balance, but multiply lot size by 1.25 and you can BE at 20% return on leftover balance (80% left over balance * 20% = 16)

70% loss of initial capital requires 233% return on leftover balance but multiply lot size by 3.33 and you can BE at 70% return on leftover balance (30% left over balance * 70% = 21)

75% loss of initial capital requires 300% return on leftover balance but multiply lot size by 4.00 and you can BE at 75% return on leftover balance (25% left over balance * 75% = 18.75)

80% loss of initial capital requires 400% return on leftover balance but multiply lot size by 5.00 and you can BE at 80% return on leftover balance (20% left over balance * 80% = 16)

90% loss of initial capital requires 900% return on leftover balance but multiply lot size by 10.0 and you can BE at 90% return on leftover balance (10% left over balance * 90% = 9)

this is rigid, yes, definitely not suggesting to double your lot size at every 50% loss mark, it all depends on the terrain. however, by listing out the basic maths, I hope to get used to the idea of the power of skewing.

the way I imagined this is say that the account totals 100 bucks (using 0.1 lot size), then an 80% loss (80 pips) would leave you with 20 bucks. again, the 100 bucks doesn't even have to be the total account size, might be a partial amount of the account size, but it was an easier way for me to visualize. thus, taking for example (20% left over balance * 80% = 16), the 16 would be 16 pips.

as only 5 (6?) different types of tastes make up 100% of all the interesting flavors out there... not to mention texture... maybe these numbers can be a good base for me. I hope everyone enjoyed my presentation lol.
  • #43,700
  • Nov 2, 2013 11:06pm Nov 2, 2013 11:06pm
Quoting drzakir123
so maintain ur centre as they say in zen by being mindful.ur still stuck and carrying fti,its all water under the bridge.dont be like that monk who was carrying the girl long after,let it go.apologies for being too patronising,thats not my intention.
not to pick an argument.. or a bone.. but things feel sort of.. slow? around here.

i've been thinking... i think that the story of the monk was about letting go of your own mistakes, because of however justified he was in helping out that girl, it was a mistake, for him at least.

if we treated anything we did with the way of the monk, then everything we do would adhere to the rules, "do it and forget about it".

some things is ok, some things isn't.

because with no retrospective thought or looking inward, what would we learn from our mistakes, our actions?

i think the zen mindset as applied to the markets, which is a battlefield.. well, zen is good for patience, but when the markets show a weakness then we gotta give it hell and attack. warrior's way. AOW way.
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