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123PatternsV6 revisited

  • #861
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:44am Oct 25, 2013 7:44am
Quoting dee50
This weeks EU trades. +235 pips. NFP was very generous to me, I was in the market prior to the announcement, with a very small 10 pip SL, so the gap up was very beneficial to me. The rest of the week was extremely bitty, so I set my TPs at realistic points. Today, to alleviate the boredom of trading, I am going to watch the paint dry on my walls and maybe count how many grains of rice there are in a 1Kg bag. {image}

Good way to go Dee, I just cannot understand how do determine the reversal point when close the sell and open long positions like on the 23th and 24th days.
have a nice weekend.
  • #862
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:27pm Oct 25, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting dee50
This weeks EU trades. +235 pips. NFP was very generous to me, I was in the market prior to the announcement, with a very small 10 pip SL, so the gap up was very beneficial to me. The rest of the week was extremely bitty, so I set my TPs at realistic points. Today, to alleviate the boredom of trading, I am going to watch the paint dry on my walls and maybe count how many grains of rice there are in a 1Kg bag. {image}
You only trade 1 hr now?
  • #863
  • Oct 26, 2013 4:05am Oct 26, 2013 4:05am
Quoting geomoon
{quote} Good way to go Dee, I just cannot understand how do determine the reversal point when close the sell and open long positions like on the 23th and 24th days. have a nice weekend.

This is one of the methods I use the most. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...hlight=jankone
or, here is a PDF of Jankone´s posts

The other is Candle Reversal Patterns. PDF attached, there is a lot of info around on this subject, but the attached keeps it simple.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Reversal Patterns.pdf   625 KB | 1,616 downloads
File Type: pdf Jankone's charts.pdf   1.3 MB | 864 downloads
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #864
  • Oct 27, 2013 7:10am Oct 27, 2013 7:10am
When does Price hit the Session Day´s High or Low??. Do you care?? As Day Traders you should! If I need to explain why then you should not be reading this.

Here is a link to Thomas Bulkowski´s site where he conducted a study, the results are interesting. Bare in mind this is stocks, the results will be slightly different for Forex and for each pair, but it is not difficult to do a simple back test. Remember you need to test the times when you are awake and trading so that the results are relevant to you, to often I see backtest results covering 24/5, fine if you are an algorithm that never sleeps.

http://thepatternsite.com/IntradayHighLow.html

Also interesting

http://thepatternsite.com/studies.html

And

http://thepatternsite.com/CandleEntry.html. and http://thepatternsite.com/Hammer.html and http://thepatternsite.com/ShootingStar.html
and http://thepatternsite.com/BearEngulfing.html and http://thepatternsite.com/BullEngulfing.html
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #865
  • Oct 27, 2013 3:25pm Oct 27, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting dee50
{quote} This is one of the methods I use the most. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...hlight=jankone or, here is a PDF of Jankone´s posts The other is Candle Reversal Patterns. PDF attached, there is a lot of info around on this subject, but the attached keeps it simple. {image} {image}
You are a story Dee !
  • #866
  • Oct 27, 2013 3:28pm Oct 27, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting dee50
When does Price hit the Session Day´s High or Low??. Do you care?? As Day Traders you should! If I need to explain why then you should not be reading this. Here is a link to Thomas Bulkowski´s site where he conducted a study, the results are interesting. Bare in mind this is stocks, the results will be slightly different for Forex and for each pair, but it is not difficult to do a simple back test. Remember you need to test the times when you are awake and trading so that the results are relevant to you, to often I see backtest results covering...
That's Cool , but do you think that anyone can memories 50% of these patterns and shapes !
  • #867
  • Oct 27, 2013 7:36pm Oct 27, 2013 7:36pm
you do not need to remember then all at once geomoon. Start with one and you know you have to be aware of S/R, round numbers, daily H/L
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #868
  • Oct 28, 2013 2:05am Oct 28, 2013 2:05am
Quoting simpleguy
you do not need to remember then all at once geomoon. Start with one and you know you have to be aware of S/R, round numbers, daily H/L

Yah, I like Pin Bar at support or resistance, it looks pretty much reliable , also other forms have a better probability at that area.
Thanks
  • #869
  • Edited 5:05am Oct 28, 2013 4:47am | Edited 5:05am
Quoting geomoon
{quote} That's Cool , but do you think that anyone can memories 50% of these patterns and shapes !
The reason I used this site as an example is because he is one of the few Analysts who has actually done the research and listed the Success and Failure rates for candle patterns, too many people talk about candlesticks and Patterns as if they were a foregone conclusion whereas the reality is very different!!! The Pin Bar on it´s own only signals a reversal 59% - 60% of the time, however Bulkowski did not test the Pin Bar at S&R levels had he done so he would have found a significant difference in the predictive success rate! So you are correct in choosing the Pin Bar (Reversal Bar) at S&R.

Bulkowski´s analysis of a 123 Pattern, although different to how we use it, he uses a trend line in the pattern, shows that this pattern confirms a trend change 73% of the time. My own analysis in Forex, puts this figure at closer to 86%.

http://thepatternsite.com/123tc.html

His analysis of an ABC correction (Measured Move) is closest to our 123. But he actually Analised each leg of the Pattern and evaluated the success rate of a 100% expansion. Check out the "Measured Move Up Trading Tips"

http://thepatternsite.com/mmu.html

"The measure rule predicts a price target! This works 83% of the time in a Bull market and 93% in a Bear market

http://thepatternsite.com/PatternReview5.html
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #870
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:56am Oct 28, 2013 7:56am

You are a story Dee !

You are a story Dee !

  • #871
  • Oct 28, 2013 12:13pm Oct 28, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting dee50
{quote} The reason I used this site as an example is because he is one of the few Analysts who has actually done the research and listed the Success and Failure rates for candle patterns, too many people talk about candlesticks and Patterns as if they were a foregone conclusion whereas the reality is very different!!! The Pin Bar on it´s own only signals a reversal 59% - 60% of the time, however Bulkowski did not test the Pin Bar at S&R levels had he done so he would have found a significant difference in the predictive success rate! So you are...
I'm not sure but I feel that his version of 123 matches the broken trend strategy, is that right ?
also his ABC matches the harmonic version of AB= CD or 100% fibo expansion
  • #872
  • Oct 28, 2013 12:51pm Oct 28, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting geomoon
{quote} I'm not sure but I feel that his version of 123 matches the broken trend strategy, is that right ? also his ABC matches the harmonic version of AB= CD or 100% fibo expansion
Spot On.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #873
  • Oct 29, 2013 4:51am Oct 29, 2013 4:51am
EU +32 +25. Time to take profits, TDI and Stochs OS and possible Pin Bar forming on the 1Hr. In this market take profit while it is on the table, if PA moves down then I can Re enter.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU +32 +25 29 10.png Size: 34 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #874
  • Oct 29, 2013 8:57am Oct 29, 2013 8:57am
UJ +35 BPC (123) entry
EJ +35 123 (BPC) entry

All in all not a bad mornings work, but until the market says otherwise, only taking small profits within the S&R levels.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ +35 29 10.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ +35 29 10.png Size: 35 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #875
  • Oct 29, 2013 9:41am Oct 29, 2013 9:41am
I Dee

Now do you go short eur\usd?
  • #876
  • Oct 29, 2013 9:56am Oct 29, 2013 9:56am
Quoting dee50
EU +32 +25. Time to take profits, TDI and Stochs OS and possible Pin Bar forming on the 1Hr. In this market take profit while it is on the table, if PA moves down then I can Re enter. {image}

Now I'm sure that you are a time traveler !
  • #877
  • Oct 29, 2013 10:06am Oct 29, 2013 10:06am
Quoting armyda
I Dee Now do you go short eur\usd?
Not until we get some confirmation. Remember technically we are still in an uptrend and have not yet completed the move to 1.3850 - 70 ish. Plus dollar news was negative, I am erring on the side of caution.

Edit.
2 consecutive Pin Bars have formed on the 15 min, but just below them is a BRN 1.3800, so it is tempting to fade this move but I would wait to see if the BRN becomes support.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #878
  • Oct 29, 2013 10:09am Oct 29, 2013 10:09am
Quoting geomoon
{quote} Now I'm sure that you are a time traveler !

I keep meaning to have a chat with Forbes, they have me in the wrong place on their list.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #879
  • Oct 29, 2013 10:37am Oct 29, 2013 10:37am
excuse me dee can you share me your round number indi?
thanks
  • #880
  • Oct 29, 2013 11:32am Oct 29, 2013 11:32am
Quoting armyda
excuse me dee can you share me your round number indi? thanks
Here is the round number indi.
Looks like we should have gone short EU, but then Hindsight is 20/20 vision. I still would not have expected price to completely reverse, did I miss some news?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FX-Pro Round Numbers.mq4   4 KB | 461 downloads
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
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