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Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest

  • #861
  • Oct 24, 2013 4:45am Oct 24, 2013 4:45am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Broker stop hunting is a myth. If you are getting \"hunted\", it is actually the market as a whole that was wrong to place their stop loss in that area, not just YOU alone. If there is enough stops WORTH hunting, they WILL hunt them. But TRUST ME, its not your order they are hunting, its THE MARKETS COLLECTION OF STOP LOSSES as a whole that they are hunting.

Could not agree more.
  • #862
  • Oct 24, 2013 5:31am Oct 24, 2013 5:31am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} You're right, I can see that from my results so far. But I'm scalping in lower TFs so there is no point in making my SLs wider, I think I have to focus on taking less trades & more precise ones.

If you need a wider stop for lower TF entries then you are not entering the market at a good place or defining your entry criteria properly. At the lower TF any entry signal you use will become invalidated after a small move against you, so don't widen your stop or you lose the real benefit of trading such a time frame (small stops, good R:R, quicker trade times.)

The trick I find to "scalp" type entries is to look for the lower TF entry at places where you believe (due to whatever trading system you use) a higher TF is also due to move. Either a supply/demand zone, some sort of building divergence with a previous bar, etc. You can then use the lower TF to refine your entry picking the exact point where the market turns.

This is how you lower your stop size and have a much higher R:R by allowing the trade to run, instead of taking a small TP, because the higher TF will drive it in your favour. If the higher TF coincides with your lower TF entry then any exit signals on the lower TF are likely to be smashed through.

I enter the market like this all the time, drilling right down to the 1 minute TF for a very tight entry and riding it up to a 15minute or 1 hour TF target.
  • #863
  • Oct 24, 2013 6:27am Oct 24, 2013 6:27am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Absolutely better open the trade \"mentally\", wait till your \"mental stop get´s hit\", and put your real trade right there, together with the Big Boys...doesn´t work all the time, but when it does, youré almost instantly in Profit.

Yeabsolutely! Making money trading currencies, stocks & what have you, requires an uncanny ability of discounting the obvious.
  • #864
  • Oct 24, 2013 7:33am Oct 24, 2013 7:33am
Quoting AlanB
{quote} If you need a wider stop for lower TF entries then you are not entering the market at a good place or defining your entry criteria properly. At the lower TF any entry signal you use will become invalidated after a small move against you, so don't widen your stop or you lose the real benefit of trading such a time frame (small stops, good R:R, quicker trade times.) The trick I find to \"scalp\" type entries is to look for the lower TF entry at places where you believe (due to whatever trading system you use) a higher TF is also due to move....

Couldn't agree more..
The problem I have is tracking both of them together. After getting the entry right, when i look in smaller TFs I see a lot of reasons to close the trade, If I'm simply collecting the odds that is what I think I should do. But letting my trade run for the purpose of getting large percentage, I feel like a gamble.

2 of my entries today were quiet precise, (no bragging intended) but I didn't take a profit on second one.
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  • #865
  • Oct 24, 2013 7:40am Oct 24, 2013 7:40am
Quoting AlanB
{quote} If you need a wider stop for lower TF entries then you are not entering the market at a good place or defining your entry criteria properly. At the lower TF any entry signal you use will become invalidated after a small move against you, so don't widen your stop or you lose the real benefit of trading such a time frame (small stops, good R:R, quicker trade times.) The trick I find to \"scalp\" type entries is to look for the lower TF entry at places where you believe (due to whatever trading system you use) a higher TF is also due to move....
The problem in my case is i don't know which one among the seeds will grow & which won't. So I prefer to take small punches & still remain in business.
My observation is this; a lot of good R:R (1:10 or more) trades are there but only a few of them gives you the reward.
  • #866
  • Oct 24, 2013 7:55am Oct 24, 2013 7:55am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
After getting the entry right, when i look in smaller TFs I see a lot of reasons to close the trade,
So why don't you finetune your entry on the smaller TF after taken the big picture on the higher one ?
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #867
  • Oct 24, 2013 8:14am Oct 24, 2013 8:14am
This is why you should trade only ONE time frame. If you are trading the one hour, then IGNORE all other TFs. Plain and simple.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #868
  • Edited 8:28am Oct 24, 2013 8:16am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} So why don't you finetune your entry on the smaller TF after taken the big picture on the higher one ?
That is what I'm doing, getting precise entries for moves that are anticipated on a higher time frame. but my problem is; in the bigger picture the move can wait, or its not gonna happen & meanwhile I see a lot of reasons in smaller TFs to take profit.
For eg: I have a sell position in EURUSD @ 3817.6 SL is 12 pip which is 0.5% of my account, now its 20+ pips. Technically I see a room for pullback which is good for bulls, so I see a possibility to take profit after 60-120 pips, which will be 2.5% or more & its more than enough for me to live with.

I have many options regarding moving both SL & TP.
SL:
1. -12pips
2. B.E
3. +12pips

TP:

1. +48
2. +60 or more

I'm not knowledgeable in fundamentals, so I don't know who's driving or what they want etc..
Only thing I know so far is picking precise entries & cashing pips by playing the odds.

So for the purpose of R2R method I don't know how to use it.
  • #869
  • Oct 24, 2013 8:56am Oct 24, 2013 8:56am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Exactly. You don't have to stay stagnant. You can spread the risk capital across each stop loss/tp, as you see the appropriate trade for it. Or you can simply wait for the appropriate trade and match it the stop loss and tp. I'm running this as \"s/l and t/p\" scalp -- smaller time frame usually 5minute entry ---> 8 pip stop 8 pip tp minor swing -- this means i think the take profit is limited, usually 30min entry --> 16 pip stop 32 pip tp swing -- this means i think the take profit can be decent, usually 30min entry, with confirmation of...
I understand the concept of your idea.

But what about margin requirements? Even if one is trading with high leverage (1:300), risking 50% of balance in one trade means your're dealing with large lots in relation to the size of your account. Unless you're trading with very large SL, but then your reward need to be even bigger.

If your strategy SL is 15 pips (eur/usd), and you're aiming for 30 pips reward, and your account is $2400 (example), you're risking $1200

$1200 risk within a SL of 15 pips means you're trading 8 standard lots, $80 per pip. You're not opening a 8 lot position with a $2400 account, because even with 1:300 leverage, the marging requirements to open that position is $3638.
  • #870
  • Oct 24, 2013 10:29am Oct 24, 2013 10:29am
Quoting Jack Herer
{quote} I understand the concept of your idea. But what about margin requirements? Even if one is trading with high leverage (1:300), risking 50% of balance in one trade means your're dealing with large lots in relation to the size of your account. Unless you're trading with very large SL, but then your reward need to be even bigger. If your strategy SL is 15 pips (eur/usd), and you're aiming for 30 pips reward, and your account is $2400 (example), you're risking $1200 $1200 risk within a SL of 15 pips means you're trading 8 standard lots, $80 per...

Actually, I think you're a little off on your calc's If you're trading the E/U with a 300:1 leverage you need $333 for each lot or $2,666 to open your 8 lots.
If you move to a 500:1 leverage you would only need $1,600. 1000:1 leverage...$800.

That might sound like crazy high leverage, but that's what this MM is about
  • #871
  • Oct 24, 2013 10:37am Oct 24, 2013 10:37am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
For those who are talking about \"SL hunts\" Just know that if you aren't in a position greater than 1000 lots, no entity is going to hunt your stop for the sole purpose of soaking your liquidity. No way. Even still with 1000+ lots, you would have to be using a 5 pip stop loss for them to even want to try. And when they hunted the position, they would have limit orders of their own waiting right under where you got stopped out. Because ultimately, they want the same direction you wanted. Just ask yourself: Did George Soros get his 50,000 lots \"hunted\"...
I think what you forget is most people on here are dealing with bucket shops. Take Oanda as a perfect example, they LOVE people who place SL. They can feed any price they want and spike everyone while raising the spread 100+ pips. I have a screen shot to prove it. SL hunting is free money for bucket shops, why wouldn't they purposely spike prices to take your free money? Get REAL BRO!
  • #872
  • Oct 24, 2013 10:39am Oct 24, 2013 10:39am
Quoting spyderman
{quote} Actually, I think you're a little off on your calc's If you're trading the E/U with a 300:1 leverage you need $333 for each lot or $2,666 to open your 8 lots. If you move to a 500:1 leverage you would only need $1,600. 1000:1 leverage...$800. That might sound like crazy high leverage, but that's what this MM is about
Actually, no.

it would be $2,666 to open 8 lots IF my deposit was in euros, because when trading EUR/USD, euro is the base currency. If your deposit is in USD, it's $3638

feel free to check it:

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...counts/margin/
  • #873
  • Edited 11:24am Oct 24, 2013 11:07am | Edited 11:24am
Quoting LizardGizzard
Jib, one thing that can be tremendously helpful is to take whatever lot size you are comfortable with and then reduce it by HALF. And then either let your stops actually play out or widen them by a considerable margin. It is not terribly difficult to be right in terms of market direction, but you the have to let time and price work themselves out by allowing a wider than usual margin of swing. Just my thoughts.

100% agree I actually break it in .25 lots
Example of Stop Hunt.Today on Swissy
8890 right below RN 10pips down.Obvious places that SL get hit below above 10-20pips around numbers,daily highs lows,important S/R most common.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #874
  • Oct 24, 2013 11:09am Oct 24, 2013 11:09am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting NJaNeer
{quote} I think what you forget is most people on here are dealing with bucket shops. Take Oanda as a perfect example, they LOVE people who place SL. They can feed any price they want and spike everyone while raising the spread 100+ pips. I have a screen shot to prove it. SL hunting is free money for bucket shops, why wouldn't they purposely spike prices to take your free money? Get REAL BRO!
you sound naive and gullible........
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #875
  • Oct 24, 2013 11:44am Oct 24, 2013 11:44am
Quoting Jack Herer
{quote} Actually, no. it would be $2,666 to open 8 lots IF my deposit was in euros, because when trading EUR/USD, euro is the base currency. If your deposit is in USD, it's $3638 feel free to check it: http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...counts/margin/

Apologies...I was thinking U/J, etc. Point still is that with 1000:1 you'd only need $1,104.
  • #876
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:53pm Oct 24, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
For those who are talking about \"SL hunts\" Just know that if you aren't in a position greater than 1000 lots, no entity is going to hunt your stop for the sole purpose of soaking your liquidity. No way. Even still with 1000+ lots, you would have to be using a 5 pip stop loss for them to even want to try. And when they hunted the position, they would have limit orders of their own waiting right under where you got stopped out. Because ultimately, they want the same direction you wanted. Just ask yourself: Did George Soros get his 50,000 lots \"hunted\"...


Sure, but all the "sitting ducks", in the obvious swing high low will get slaughtered here and there, not too Little, not too much to keep things" hush hush"..and business running...
Don´t want to call it stop hunting?,fine, you can call it wash and rinse....
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  • #877
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:55pm Oct 24, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting NJaNeer
{quote} I think what you forget is most people on here are dealing with bucket shops. Take Oanda as a perfect example, they LOVE people who place SL. They can feed any price they want and spike everyone while raising the spread 100+ pips. I have a screen shot to prove it. SL hunting is free money for bucket shops, why wouldn't they purposely spike prices to take your free money? Get REAL BRO!
There's no point demarketing any broker in here. There's no such thing as SL hunting. You tell yourself what you want to believe. If you trade around times of crucial economic data releases, you are bound to experience widened spreads and get stopped out often. Most brokers let you know about this on their websites. When your SL is hit, it's hit. We should learn to take a loss in good faith. The broker you mentioned is highly reputable and I know good traders who use this broker without any such problems.
  • #878
  • Oct 24, 2013 9:25pm Oct 24, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting kinzu
{quote} There's no point demarketing any broker in here. There's no such thing as SL hunting. You tell yourself what you want to believe. If you trade around times of crucial economic data releases, you are bound to experience widened spreads and get stopped out often. Most brokers let you know about this on their websites. When your SL is hit, it's hit. We should learn to take a loss in good faith. The broker you mentioned is highly reputable and I know good traders who use this broker without any such problems.
May I add to differentiate normal market behaviour.
There are 2 types:
1. Market makers orders filling (Pin bar) One can easliy find them everywhere on chart.
2. Dealers stop hunting with unpredictable spreads. One can't find such pricing looking at charts.
but anyways dealers informs you that they are going to make such things. be prepared.
it's o'k to win ...
  • #879
  • Oct 25, 2013 12:28am Oct 25, 2013 12:28am
Quoting zenseven
{quote} May I add to differentiate normal market behaviour. There are 2 types: 1. Market makers orders filling (Pin bar) One can easliy find them everywhere on chart. 2. Dealers stop hunting with unpredictable spreads. One can't find such pricing looking at charts. but anyways dealers informs you that they are going to make such things. be prepared.

All in all it´s very simple.
Hunting or no hunting, if youré trading short term, you are forced to use a wide stop...which increases your costs exponentially...
The "Good Book" says: "so you enter and place your stop in the bottom/top of the last swing, plus one pip, plus spread..."...right?

Call it last swing , plus 1 pip, plus spread, plus minimum 10 pips "safety cushion"...this would be "the new edition, revised Book"...for carefull students only...
After that, don´t blame it on Oanda.
  • #880
  • Oct 25, 2013 9:14am Oct 25, 2013 9:14am
Quoting kinzu
{quote} There's no point demarketing any broker in here. There's no such thing as SL hunting. You tell yourself what you want to believe. If you trade around times of crucial economic data releases, you are bound to experience widened spreads and get stopped out often. Most brokers let you know about this on their websites. When your SL is hit, it's hit. We should learn to take a loss in good faith. The broker you mentioned is highly reputable and I know good traders who use this broker without any such problems.
I tell myself to be realistic, Forex bucket shop brokers are here for one thing, my money. I don't really care about SL hunting, because I hold positions for weeks. I learned a while back that a SL is useless with a bucket shop, you can't compete with daily 50+ pip spikes.
Sir, please tell me why a bucket shop would not want to feed irregular price spikes? When a bucket shop has a dynamic spread that spikes with price, would it not be advantageous for a bucket shop to feed the highest and lowest prices instantly?

I understand that you feel this is normal behavior for a broker, I can't really argue with you about news spikes, because spreads do widen. I mean 20-30 pip spreads should be the norm right? When you get 50-100 pip spikes (spreads) for nothing through the day, light bulbs should start flashing...

http://i1285.photobucket.com/albums/...ps38edb7b4.png

Look, bucket shops are not reputable. They are here to take your money, one way or another. Look at FXCM, regulated and still got caught doing dirty work. Until bucket shops start showing price feeds with the actual banks quoting these outrageous prices, I can guarantee somebody is getting.

Kinzu, maybe you are now used to the spikes or maybe you trade longer term. A lot of the new people that start Forex will get slaughtered by these brokers shenanigans. I hate to see people defending brokers that wouldn't think twice about cheating their customers.

Sorry, I was getting tired of the constant posts made by people defending brokers who don't even purchase anything for you, Imagine sports betting where your bookie controls the score boards and makes his own scores based on " a secret algorithm" to make absolutely sure his patrons get the best possible outcome.

Patron - "HEY! I watched the game, they only scored 21 points."

Bookie - " Look right here sir, my board shows 24."

Patron - "Who the hell scored the extra points?"

Bookie - "Sorry, we can't tell you who scored the extra points, it's our secret..."
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