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vsa with Malcolm

  • #24,781
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:48pm Oct 22, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
I mentioned a bit ago about a long bias on the NZDUSD, I had a few pm's about it so I though I'd post something I'm looking at. When I trade VSA and apply it to the Forex markets I take a very simple approach. When price enters an area of previous high volume demand or supply it becomes very challenging for me to analyze from a pure single bar by bar standpoint. I would rather take into consideration a period of bars (time) and apply VSA theory. A simple review of the current NZDUSD show we are in a clear uptrend. A look at the chart below show...
nice analysis.......was watching from the behind the scene,and it worked out as a long trade.............
  • #24,782
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:53pm Oct 22, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
For those who like smaller time frames, take a peak at the gbpjpy. I would like to see some blow off bars on a few of the major pairs today or tomorrow.
may i ask what you are looking for.............
  • #24,783
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:45pm Oct 22, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} 3600-3650 min upper target... good chance 3800-3850 is even in the cards.
Well it took a long while but with the help of news today we came right up to that 3800 level. Looking overhead on both Daily and Weekly charts there is not much between us and 4100 (I know that's a long ways away and above super key round number 4000 but what can I say it's what the charts are saying to me...)

There is a beautiful clean Daily supply zone sitting up at the 4130-4250 area.

Yellow lines on the Weekly chart and the red zone on the Daily chart (zoomed in to show the beauty of that ultra clean supply decision zone)... This just seems like too obvious a target to stop anywheres short of here before the SM start any real selling. Still 3 days left this week so Weekly could still fail to close above the white line. As always no straight lines so I will be watching the key points for retraces back to demand zones to add on long until it becomes apparent that the bulls have left the building... that day has yet to come.

Time will tell I guess.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,784
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:16pm Oct 22, 2013 9:16pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Well it took a long while but with the help of news today we came right up to that 3800 level. Looking overhead on both Daily and Weekly charts there is not much between us and 4100 (I know that's a long ways away and above super key round number 4000 but what can I say it's what the charts are saying to me...) There is a beautiful clean Daily supply zone sitting up at the 4130-4250 area. Yellow lines on the Weekly chart and the red zone on the Daily chart (zoomed in to show the beauty of that ultra clean supply decision zone)... This just...

Hi Pres,
EU might meet this Upper boundary (dashed yellow line) on its way around 1.3900 to 1.3950, depending on how fast it gets up there. Might not stop it, but will probably react to it.
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  • #24,785
  • Oct 23, 2013 9:17am Oct 23, 2013 9:17am
Markets needed a pull back.
I was anticipating a larger run on the major crosses but this hasn't happened yet.
In my mind; unless we see significant signs of weakness I will be looking at opportunities to short the US$ against some of the majors.
The before mentioned Yen strength on the weekly time-frame is starting to play out.
Careful out there!
  • #24,786
  • Oct 23, 2013 10:33am Oct 23, 2013 10:33am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Markets needed a pull back. I was anticipating a larger run on the major crosses but this hasn't happened yet. In my mind; unless we see significant signs of weakness I will be looking at opportunities to short the US$ against some of the majors. The before mentioned Yen strength on the weekly time-frame is starting to play out. Careful out there!

really wish i could make analysis like that...due you have books you could recommend that can get me up to speed......thanks in advance.........
  • #24,787
  • Oct 23, 2013 10:47am Oct 23, 2013 10:47am
Quoting carbonado
{quote} really wish i could make analysis like that...due you have books you could recommend that can get me up to speed......thanks in advance.........
Master the Markets by Tom Williams.
Going through threads like the one your on.
I would also recommend looking at Gavin Holmes Youtube channel. There is some great info there and links.
  • #24,788
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:47pm Oct 23, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
{quote} Master the Markets by Tom Williams. Going through threads like the one your on. I would also recommend looking at Gavin Holmes Youtube channel. There is some great info there and links.

thanks.....am on it..............
  • #24,789
  • Oct 31, 2013 4:59am Oct 31, 2013 4:59am
Big volume for such a little bar.

Easy money for the rest of the year.
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  • #24,790
  • Oct 31, 2013 12:28pm Oct 31, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting SimpleDev
Big volume for such a little bar. Easy money for the rest of the year. {image}
finally,some one posts in here.......its been so quiet.....i check the thread all the time lately....i really missed out.....i wish people could start posting again..........
  • #24,791
  • Oct 31, 2013 1:36pm Oct 31, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting carbonado
{quote} finally,some one posts in here.......its been so quiet.....i check the thread all the time lately....i really missed out.....i wish people could start posting again..........
Get the posts started. Post some charts and ask some questions. No one likes posting to an empty room but if you ask some questions this may bring out some people offering up responses. Who knows it may even spark a good old debate or two!

Don't wait for others to post. Grab the bull by the horns.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,792
  • Oct 31, 2013 9:01pm Oct 31, 2013 9:01pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Get the posts started. Post some charts and ask some questions. No one likes posting to an empty room but if you ask some questions this may bring out some people offering up responses. Who knows it may even spark a good old debate or two! Don't wait for others to post. Grab the bull by the horns.

cool........was scanning my charts and i saw this one......nzd/jpy............
its sittin on a daily demand zone......
i trade the longer time frame entry 4hr...so i check the 4 hr chart and i se this wide range bar with exceptional high volume,what do you guys think
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  • #24,793
  • Oct 31, 2013 9:03pm Oct 31, 2013 9:03pm
i guess the buy is around the 81:00 area..thanks....all input welcomed............
  • #24,794
  • Oct 31, 2013 10:04pm Oct 31, 2013 10:04pm
Quoting carbonado
{quote} cool........was scanning my charts and i saw this one......nzd/jpy............ its sittin on a daily demand zone...... i trade the longer time frame entry 4hr...so i check the 4 hr chart and i se this wide range bar with exceptional high volume,what do you guys think {image} {image}
Interesting 4h chart, as I do not know what time the chart is based off. (I don't know what the start time of the day is for your broker)

4h is a funny TF because the charts will be different depending on the brokers start time, the most common start times are London open (7:00 GMT) or US open (13:00 GMT). If you are going to watch 4h TF then think about opening up a demo account with a broker with a start time of 7:00 GMT, IBFX is an example.

Lets go back to your 4h chart, the bar you highlighted is an UP bar with the close towards the middle, which is a sign of weakness. Here is my 4h chart which is based on London open.

The first bar is an up bar closing in the middle, weakness comes in on up bars and in order for it to close in the middle of the bar there must have been selling here.

The second bar is a hidden up thrust another sign of weakness.
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  • #24,795
  • Oct 31, 2013 10:19pm Oct 31, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting carbonado
{quote} its sittin on a daily demand zone.....
Lets look at your daily chart.

Always look left before you look at whats happening now, looking left look at the action from April earlier this year. Notice the spreads on these bars? Don't they look larger than the spreads of all of the other bars?

Now lets fast forward to the double top from the high in September and in late October, this potential double top is in the same area as those wide spread bars from April, this could be a potential distribution area.
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  • #24,796
  • Oct 31, 2013 10:45pm Oct 31, 2013 10:45pm
AU should present some nice buying opportunities.
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  • #24,797
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:05am Nov 1, 2013 7:05am
Hi SimpleDev,

Is it important where the close of a Nd and Ns bar is ? does it matte if it is in the lower half, upper half or in the middle ?

thanks
  • #24,798
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:36am Nov 1, 2013 8:36am
Quoting Trappist
Hi SimpleDev, Is it important where the close of a Nd and Ns bar is ? does it matte if it is in the lower half, upper half or in the middle ? thanks
I don't pay too much attention to the positioning of the close. Biggest thing is about a NS, is that you see clear multiple signs of strength in the back ground and that the NS is a down bar on low volume.
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  • #24,799
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:57am Nov 1, 2013 8:57am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} I don't pay too much attention to the positioning of the close. Biggest thing is about a NS, is that you see clear multiple signs of strength in the back ground and that the NS is a down bar on low volume. {image}
I agree with SimpleDev in that I need to have seen UHV signs of activity supporting the now lack of volume. Buying climax with sellers follow through, then perhaps an UT and then a ND. At that point if I have seen sellers and the activity and now an upbar (preferably narrow range) with no supporting volume I will consider that a possible trade trigger regardless of close.

Usually to differentiate in my mind if the bar closed on the high I would call it a no buying pressure and if it closes off the high to mid a ND but in the end it all shows basically the same thing... lack of SM activity on the upmove.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,800
  • Nov 2, 2013 12:53am Nov 2, 2013 12:53am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Interesting 4h chart, as I do not know what time the chart is based off. (I don't know what the start time of the day is for your broker) 4h is a funny TF because the charts will be different depending on the brokers start time, the most common start times are London open (7:00 GMT) or US open (13:00 GMT). If you are going to watch 4h TF then think about opening up a demo account with a broker with a start time of 7:00 GMT, IBFX is an example. Lets go back to your 4h chart, the bar you highlighted is an UP bar with the close towards the...
okay..........thanks and i usually go down to 1hr to see what that time frame is doing because usually their tend to be particular time of the day that the 4hr tend to be on dead.........but by checking the 1hr...i usually get a clearer picture...thanks
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