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  • #1,381
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:12am Oct 22, 2013 11:12am
Yeah turned out ok in the end. I just closed actually, 1.10. Could've held til Friday but by closing now not only do I lock in the gains but I give myself the opportunity to reshort the same call should they put the squeeze on between now and then. Highly unlikely, but you never know.
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  • #1,382
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:17am Oct 22, 2013 11:17am
I feel it in my bones, ES is coming back down to 1695, but we might be held up here for a couple of weeks while they distribute.
If a mo-mo stock like NFLX can't hold its gains it suggests to me the air is getting thin up here for the broader market. Also USDJPY on which I'm short, is failing to push higher.
It's a waiting game but should be a good 40-50 points in the bag within the next month.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,383
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:30am Oct 22, 2013 11:30am
Quoting Boy Wonder
I feel it in my bones, ES is coming back down to 1695, but we might be held up here for a couple of weeks while they distribute.
well I took $0.32 net on my SDS long puts, that would just about fund Nov 16 SDS $35 long calls, $0.37 now, to make the strangle I had planned, but I'm shopping around....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,384
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:47am Oct 22, 2013 11:47am
Quoting The Fool
...so, I kind of think we will see a DC deal by Oct opex and an equity rally, a rise in S&P to 1730 +/-, ...and then a fall back by early November. I will watch SDS on Monday: a $34/$38 Nov long strangle prices at ~ $1.10 Friday close - the ideal scenario there would be to get a good dip in SDS to $34.50 and sell the puts then wait for the S&P pullback to sell the calls
...I am thinking November may be too early and that we will see US equities go sideways or maybe even put in new highs until the next (inevitable, what would we do without it?) crisis talk heats up
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,385
  • Oct 22, 2013 12:33pm Oct 22, 2013 12:33pm
New highs, very possible, but I'm happy to keep rolling my calls until the damned thing falls over. At least, I'll be happy as long as it's just marginal new highs...
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,386
  • Oct 22, 2013 10:13pm Oct 22, 2013 10:13pm
I like this CAT chart, how it has a line that goes up and down. CAT earnings out tomorrow, 10/23, but pre-open, damn, I shoulda been on that, woulda put on an asymmetrical long strangle - 10/25 $90 call/$85 put....CAT up to $89.50 AH. I suppose I could look for a big spike and try to hit the pullback w/ cheap Nov puts...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,387
  • Oct 22, 2013 10:41pm Oct 22, 2013 10:41pm
and after the bell on 10/24 AMZN earnings are out. Maybe they'll do to it what they did to NFLX.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,388
  • Oct 23, 2013 7:40am Oct 23, 2013 7:40am
Quoting The Fool
I like this CAT chart, how it has a line that goes up and down. CAT earnings out tomorrow, 10/23, but pre-open, damn, I shoulda been on that, woulda put on an asymmetrical long strangle - 10/25 $90 call/$85 put....CAT up to $89.50 AH. I suppose I could look for a big spike and try to hit the pullback w/ cheap Nov puts... {image}
I was looking at CAT but TBH I chickened out. It's a coin flip whether it flies on earnings or not, but even if it does, I reckon we will see a few % off the indices here, easily.
This latest ramp up looks to me like an attempt to squeeze as many shorts out as possible before a decent drop.
This time round crude supports are giving way. Gold is leading crude and that doesn't bode well for equities: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...45#post7043145

The best time to buy CAT was clearly at 83/84. It could fly on earnings but if it flies that much I might sell a strangle.

Edit: I've just seen you would've put on an asymmetric strangle as well. Funny, I didn't think of that until now either. Probably would've been a good trade. Let's see.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,389
  • Oct 23, 2013 7:47am Oct 23, 2013 7:47am
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101133181

"Caterpillar posts lower results, cuts outlook on mining weakness"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/caterp...123232681.html

"Caterpillar drops on horrendous quarter"


Down nearly 5% pre-market at $85. Glad I stayed away.

This market is coming down, I tell ye.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,390
  • Oct 23, 2013 10:11am Oct 23, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I've just seen you would've put on an asymmetric strangle as well. Funny, I didn't think of that until now either. Probably would've been a good trade. Let's see.
Yup, I kinda thought CAT would dump, 85/90 Oct 25 long strangle woulda made some bank. O well, this is what I get for being late.....another all time S&P high yestiddy & I shoulda been more on my toes.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,391
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:29pm Oct 23, 2013 3:29pm
Looking to get short INTC if I can tomorrow or Friday. Hopefully they'll juice the indexes giving me a decent entry.

First target 200DMA, but I think that'll crack.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,392
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:02am Oct 24, 2013 2:02am
Watching 10y yield, looking to get in a TLT spread, will say more tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,393
  • Edited Oct 28, 2013 2:13am Oct 27, 2013 11:21pm | Edited Oct 28, 2013 2:13am
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101146839?__s...&P%20500%20may

sure, US indices have plenty upside, Jap and Euro indices even more. Just expect a lttle hiccup around the first of the year if/when another DC budget/debt ceiling crisis occurs.

So, I look to sell nearterm (Nov) SSO puts and maybe buy Jan 14 otm puts, will look for an offrisk day this week to do that...

maybe $85 Nov 22 SSO puts ($0.72) vs Jan $80 puts ($1.27), look to sell near term puts on a market dip...

for ez stocks look at FEZ, EWG, etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,394
  • Edited 2:47pm Oct 29, 2013 2:10pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting The Fool
So, I look to sell nearterm (Nov) SSO puts and maybe buy Jan 14 otm puts, will look for an offrisk day this week to do that... maybe $85 Nov 22 SSO puts ($0.72) vs Jan $80 puts ($1.27), look to sell near term puts on a market dip......[/url]
...dip might take a while...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,395
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:04pm Oct 29, 2013 3:04pm
Quoting The Fool
... maybe $85 Nov 22 SSO puts ($0.72) vs Jan $80 puts ($1.27), look to sell near term puts on a market dip...
SSO $82 to $92 in the last 3 weeks, $92-$102 will be even faster....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,396
  • Oct 30, 2013 11:58am Oct 30, 2013 11:58am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} SSO $82 to $92 in the last 3 weeks, $92-$102 will be even faster....
or not....still looking at a put spread on SSO, have long Jan SSO $82 put @ $1.40, short Nov 22 $86 @ $0.61, net $0.80 debit, may buy the Jan puts today, may wait & see if FOMC surprises, doubt it will, might pay to wait a bit....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,397
  • Edited 2:48pm Oct 30, 2013 12:55pm | Edited 2:48pm
also looking at a credit put spread on TSLA, sell Nov 16 $140, buy Dec 21 $120....I think there could be some heavy profit taking in TSLA at the end of the year.....

....did, bought Dec 21 $120 @ $2.95, sold Nov 16 $140 @ $4.47, net credit ~$1.50

...let's hold off any more xplosions till after opex....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,398
  • Oct 30, 2013 3:01pm Oct 30, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} or not....still looking at a put spread on SSO, have long Jan SSO $82 put @ $1.40, short Nov 22 $86 @ $0.61, net $0.80 debit, may buy the Jan puts today, may wait & see if FOMC surprises, doubt it will, might pay to wait a bit....
holding off, may get the S&P dip I was looking for next 1-2 days....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,399
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:55pm Oct 31, 2013 6:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} or not....still looking at a put spread on SSO, have long Jan SSO $82 put @ $1.40, short Nov 22 $86 @ $0.61, net $0.80 debit, may buy the Jan puts today, may wait & see if FOMC surprises, doubt it will, might pay to wait a bit....
decay gonna start to take its toll on the near end, need to pull the trigger by early next week. SSO 11/16 $87 put lt @ $0.33, 11/22 $86 lt @ $0.54.

idk, I think I might shop for something better, we'll see. The TSLA put spread looks OK, but I need a run-up before earnings on 11/5, next Tuesday. I had hoped to see it run up hard b4 earnings so I could buy back the puts for some good profit....


...is anybody still around?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,400
  • Oct 31, 2013 8:24pm Oct 31, 2013 8:24pm
Hello mate.
Been busy juggling my positions; so many that they make my head spin. Short calls, short puts all over the place.
Near-term target on SPX is the 20DMA. After that some more chop for maybe a couple of weeks before a more substantial leg down.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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