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We were fools to believe candlesticks can predict

  • #61
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:03am Oct 22, 2013 9:03am
Quoting vox dei
I feel your pain, but you need to take it easy. Remember this is internet forum talk lol.
and pips is just a point system for internet monies. that's one for mindset.
  • #62
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:20am Oct 22, 2013 9:20am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} and pips is just a point system for internet monies. that's one for mindset.
Sorry, English is not my native tongue, what do you mean?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #63
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:27am Oct 22, 2013 9:27am
Quoting chucklots
{quote} I missed your earlier post on Mark Douglas, which was used in arguments against me here and you rightly pointed out, he himself is not a profitable trader. This should speak for itself. I agree no mindset will make you a profitable trader if you don't have an edge, though I believe some mindsets will make you a better trader. I'd like to add that traders are always questioning their edge as some edges are lost as markets change and the only real way to quantify your edge is through past performance or data unless it is quasi arbitrage or...

Is there any proof anywhere of Mark Douglas' trading performance? The closest I can find is here:

http://markdouglas.com/welcome.html

Quote
PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND

 

  1. He currently trades for himself while working on his third book



  1. Is this a misrepresentation?

Anything can happen.
  • #64
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:30am Oct 22, 2013 9:30am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Sorry, English is not my native tongue, what do you mean?
nothing.
  • #65
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:31am Oct 22, 2013 9:31am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} nothing.
Nothing... OK. Really didn't get what you meant.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #66
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:32am Oct 22, 2013 9:32am
Variance is the biggest risk when back testing supposed technical edges but you will not see this mentioned on any of the forums numerous strategy threads. Instead people will follow one of the many entry systems getting mixed results thinking "it must be me, if only I had a bigger R:R here or a better entry there I'd be more consistent" when the underlying reason for the random like results could well be rooted in how accurate the assumption is that the "edge" exists.

I went through a phase of being convinced by Sam Seidens supply and demand strategy and actually came out net positive after commissions using it over a six months period taking around 40 trades a month recording each series in-line the teachings of Mark Douglas. The price action he describes is obvious to see and his explanations of what causes the movement are nearly impossible to disprove... the perfect ingredients for a respectable retail forex strategy. However, before I was comfortable stepping up my risk capital, I needed more than just the assumption that "the system works good some months and bad in others" to proceed and I was also growing uneasy with the random like swings in each trade series when looking back on them collectively.

To cut a long story short, after painful analysis and a better understanding of probabilities and statistical metrics... I concluded that I was effectively riding the variance train incorrectly assuming that my winning months were due to "skill" or the "edge" when the reality is I could of had the same results using a coin toss as my reason for entry... this is how significant variance is.


Quoting chucklots
{quote} I missed your earlier post on Mark Douglas, which was used in arguments against me here and you rightly pointed out, he himself is not a profitable trader. This should speak for itself. I agree no mindset will make you a profitable trader if you don't have an edge, though I believe some mindsets will make you a better trader. I'd like to add that traders are always questioning their edge as some edges are lost as markets change and the only real way to quantify your edge is through past performance or data unless it is quasi arbitrage or...
  • #67
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:33am Oct 22, 2013 9:33am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Nothing... OK. Really didn't get what you meant.
i meant Nothing. internet forum talk doesn't mean anything. winning and losing pips is nothing.

don't treat it as real money. it's just points in a game system that you can win or lose.

and that's taken from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

and we're generations removed from Jesse Livermore, I doubt people are laughing at him, as per OP's original post that future generations will laugh at us.
  • #68
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:39am Oct 22, 2013 9:39am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} i meant Nothing. internet forum talk doesn't mean anything. winning and losing pips is nothing. don't treat it as real money. it's just points in a game system that you can win or lose. and that's taken from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Thanks for the clarification. You are right, money detachement (sp?) is very important. I've not achieved that higher mindset yet, that's why I cheat by using automated trading.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #69
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:44am Oct 22, 2013 9:44am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Thanks for the clarification. You are right, money detachement (sp?) is very important. I've not achieved that higher mindset yet, that's why I cheat by using automated trading.
if you can be detached in the forums, then I'm sure you can be detached while trading. it's good training. be numb to the markets but be nimble to react.
  • #70
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:47am Oct 22, 2013 9:47am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} if you can be detached in the forums, then I'm sure you can be detached while trading. it's good training. be numb to the markets but be nimble to react.
As long as I'm right and anyone who disagrees with me is wrong that's fine.

Otherwise I will argue to the death...
Anything can happen.
  • #71
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:49am Oct 22, 2013 9:49am
Quoting ddinnov
{quote} As long as I'm right and anyone who disagrees with me is wrong that's fine. Otherwise I will argue to the death...
i'm just still waiting for my first vouch

  • #72
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:49am Oct 22, 2013 9:49am
Quoting TranceTrader
Variance is the biggest risk when back testing supposed technical edges but you will not see this mentioned on any of the forums numerous strategy threads. Instead people will follow one of the many entry systems getting mixed results thinking "it must be me, if only I had a bigger R:R here or a better entry there I'd be more consistent" when the underlying reason for the random like results could well be rooted in how accurate the assumption is that the "edge" exists. I went through a phase of being convinced by Sam Seidens supply and demand...
Great post.

Technicals alone won't cut it in the long run, there is more to markets than that. This should be clear when nobody can prove this is what they do and use no other info to profit consistently over varied market conditions. The big guys that move markets, the real supply/demand is not based solely on technicals and cannot be predicted from past technical levels alone. I am not saying some of them don't use technicals in their analysis because they do, but from what I know, mostly for risk parameters, not for anticipation of price moves by themselves. Price action is important though for us to get a read on buying/selling and it is for pros also. I do use simple tech stuff, the things I know big players are watching, or should I say, a lot of players will be watching and I am talking daily/weekly charts and find price action around these levels is very important.

These forums are littered with people trying all kinds of simple tech based methodologies and they are failing. This should speak for itself. If some guy is having webinars and giving away a tech based strategy and says you need nothing more than a chart... you can be sure it's horseshit.
  • #73
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:58am Oct 22, 2013 9:58am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} if you can be detached in the forums, then I'm sure you can be detached while trading. it's good training. be numb to the markets but be nimble to react.
When I feel more comfortable with my capital base, I'll give it a serious try. Meanwhile I'll keep cheating and being evil
Attached Image
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #74
  • Oct 22, 2013 10:14am Oct 22, 2013 10:14am
Quoting ddinnov
{quote} Is there any proof anywhere of Mark Douglas' trading performance? The closest I can find is here: http://markdouglas.com/welcome.html {quote} Is this a misrepresentation?
In one of his books he admits he failed and lost his money. There is one word missing in that line and it is "profitably".

I am not saying his books are not valuable.

You can try asking him personally.
  • #75
  • Oct 22, 2013 10:43am Oct 22, 2013 10:43am
Quoting chucklots
{quote} In one of his books he admits he failed and lost his money. There is one word missing in that line and it is "profitably". I am not saying his books are not valuable. You can try asking him personally.
So did pretty much everyone interviewed in Market Wizards. I think we can assume that trading profitably is a given
Anything can happen.
  • #76
  • Oct 22, 2013 10:47am Oct 22, 2013 10:47am
LOL that's some assumption.
Quoting ddinnov
{quote} So did pretty much everyone interviewed in Market Wizards. I think we can assume that trading profitably is a given
  • #77
  • Oct 22, 2013 10:51am Oct 22, 2013 10:51am
Quoting ddinnov
{quote} So did pretty much everyone interviewed in Market Wizards. I think we can assume that trading profitably is a given
So when someone says they trade their own accounts this is assumed they do it profitable and have an edge? Not in my book. He is a psychologist.
  • #78
  • Oct 22, 2013 10:51am Oct 22, 2013 10:51am
Quoting TranceTrader
LOL that's some assumption. {quote}
Where do you get your info from that he isn't?
Anything can happen.
  • #79
  • Edited 11:07am Oct 22, 2013 10:56am | Edited 11:07am
Where do you get your info that he is lol? The fact that someone talks a good game and appears sincere is not enough to assume they are profitable for me, if it is for you then that's your own prerogative.

Quoting ddinnov
{quote} Where do you get your info from that he isn't?
  • #80
  • Oct 22, 2013 10:58am Oct 22, 2013 10:58am
Quoting TranceTrader
Where do you get your info that he is lol? The fact that someone talks a good game and appears sincere is not enough to assume they are profitable for me, if it is for you then that's your own prerogative. {quote}
So you have nothing to back up your assertion that he's a failed trader then.

Just for the record.
Anything can happen.
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