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vsa with Malcolm

  • #24,761
  • Oct 17, 2013 11:35am Oct 17, 2013 11:35am
Quoting gez40
Opinions on this chart please guys. GBPUSD 1hr A : supply B and C: strength D and E: pushing up through supply bar A >strength F and G: no supply bars, price then moves up {image}
Looks good to me... The bar right after G complets a great 2 bar reveral pattern off the R turned S. Notice also that the deicison made right before bar D pushed through bar A was right into the high of UHV bar B which had been providing some minor R (say minor as it caused a sideways and not a down move).

Utlimately the USD weakness off the US news relating to the whole goverment shut-down / extension of debt etc... blah, blah, blah was the "reason" for the move (bar D printed right at London session open) but as always if we trade the reaction to the news and not the news itself we can usually be on the right side.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,762
  • Oct 18, 2013 2:53am Oct 18, 2013 2:53am
GBPUSD 4h and 1h charts, approaching supply, see how this one plays out.
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #24,763
  • Oct 18, 2013 3:20am Oct 18, 2013 3:20am
Quoting gez40
GBPUSD 4h and 1h charts, approaching supply, see how this one plays out. {image} {image}
Manipulation big time. Seems like stop killing mode is "ON".
  • #24,764
  • Oct 18, 2013 5:28am Oct 18, 2013 5:28am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} Manipulation big time. Seems like stop killing mode is "ON".
I hope that I am wrong Aldo..

But seems to be absorption volume on GU.

If you look at the volume in between the two orange bars, seems as if the bulk of the volume is at the base of the move. We have a 2 bar that rejected the high of that Pseudo Up thrust from 10/16.

And at the top of the move look at the three high volume bars, granted they are up bars but the closes doesn't look weak to me.
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  • #24,765
  • Oct 18, 2013 5:58am Oct 18, 2013 5:58am
I admit the USD pairs this week haven't been all that clear to me, been playing with JPY pairs. Today here is my trade, big volume on an up bar, notice how the next bar closes on its low telling us that the big volume up bar was weakness. London rolls around and an entry bars presents it self 30 minutes into the session.

Just using lazy man's S/R for TP which daily pivot S1 97.43.
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  • #24,766
  • Oct 18, 2013 6:04am Oct 18, 2013 6:04am
Here is another from a few days ago that I took. Now I will admit I didn't play the role model VSA'er on this trade.

Basically when I woke up in the Asia session I saw those bars and I didn't wait for an entry bar, I just placed a market order and took it up to the next pivot at 133.5. Please don't place market orders, it was wrong of me even though I was 110% bullish on EJ.
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  • #24,767
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:05am Oct 18, 2013 7:05am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} I hope that I am wrong Aldo.. But seems to be absorption volume on GU. If you look at the volume in between the two orange bars, seems as if the bulk of the volume is at the base of the move. We have a 2 bar that rejected the high of that Pseudo Up thrust from 10/16. And at the top of the move look at the three high volume bars, granted they are up bars but the closes doesn't look weak to me. {image}
GBPUSD 4h chart, nice upthrust into previous weakness. What do you think Dev?
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #24,768
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:28am Oct 18, 2013 7:28am
15m.. 1h.. I just don't see any real weakness, no increased spreads ( except there is increased spreads as price pushes through 6125 level which is normal for absorption volume).

On your chart, look at yesterday's high volume, pushes right through the top to the left and it closes on it high, and then it is followed by a successful test that I marked in green. I think its still too soon to judge the 4h UT, because we haven't seen the reaction to it yet, I know you have seen many times where there is a HV UT in up trend and price pushes up through it with out hesitation.

6125 is the key level here, if I was going to go short it would be after we have a solid close below this level. Now think about this, if this turns into a double top, this double top starting taking place on 9/18, which is a month long distribution. The market isn't going to distribute for a month only to go down a 100 pips or so, so there is no danger in selling below 6125..
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  • #24,769
  • Oct 18, 2013 9:14am Oct 18, 2013 9:14am
Quoting gez40
{quote} GBPUSD 4h chart, nice upthrust into previous weakness. What do you think Dev? {image}
That sure is supply area. But I just can't overlook yest's very bullish candle. There is a reason for yest's move, haven't figured it out yet, what big boys are thinking (most likely stop hunt). Can't say that I haven't seen price reversing immediately even after such move, I have. Better be long atm rather short. Another thing is if one should buy that high, not me
  • #24,770
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:40am Oct 20, 2013 6:40am
Quoting SimpleDev
. On your chart, look at yesterday's high volume, pushes right through the top to the left and it closes on it high, and then it is followed by a successful test that I marked in green.
Be carfull this is H4 chart all test seems to be diferent on this chart its better check it out also on H1 if its really testing
when you look its not test. coz its not testing. its just end of session also therefore volume is low.

Also on H4 this candle cannot be Upthrust coz UT only occurs in Range.
this can be climax but its not. coz volume.
i guess its just profit taking.
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  • #24,771
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:49am Oct 20, 2013 7:49am
Quoting adriann
{quote} Be carfull this is H4 chart all test seems to be diferent on this chart its better check it out also on H1 if its really testing when you look its not test. coz its not testing. its just end of session also therefore volume is low. Also on H4 this candle cannot be Upthrust coz UT only occurs in Range. this can be climax but its not. coz volume. i guess its just profit taking. {image}
That is a 4h chart based on US open, 12pm GMT, that test bar covers the time period from 12am to 4am GMT which is during the start of the Asian session. Nothing end of session about that.

It seems as you are having the same difficulties as Connected when it comes to tests. The bar alone does not make it a test, what makes it a test is the background. The background on this situation is the absorption volume from Oct 16 that I marked with the yellow line. Asia came in and saw the volume on this bar, the highest since September and it had to be tested for sellers.

Now take a look at the next bar from the test, its pushes up and closes on its high, telling us that the test was successful. This area is very likely bullish, but I would not open any new positions due to the potential double top from the first of October.

I completely disagree with your statement that an UT only occurs during a range. Shorting Up thrusts in a down trend is profitable.
Chart GU 4h I just scrolled back and found the first down trend I could find..
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  • #24,772
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:46am Oct 20, 2013 10:46am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} I completely disagree with your statement that an UT only occurs during a range. Shorting Up thrusts in a down trend is profitable. Chart GU 4h I just scrolled back and found the first down trend I could find.. {image}
just cant undertand how you can compare Bar that are test from asian to us session .. also with that tick volume.
of course that volume is low during asian session. on H4 it can seems like it testing something but it isnt.
coz low activity during asian session.
  • #24,773
  • Oct 20, 2013 8:14pm Oct 20, 2013 8:14pm
Quoting adriann
{quote} just cant undertand how you can compare Bar that are test from asian to us session .. also with that tick volume. of course that volume is low during asian session. on H4 it can seems like it testing something but it isnt. coz low activity during asian session.
Lets go back a couple of steps.

What is a test?

A test is a bar that looks to see if supply has been removed, right?

The bar in question is not the test itself, the bar in question is the the up bar from Oct 16th with all of the volume on it. Aren't you personally curious to know how many sellers are in that volume? I am, so lets test it! The bar I am pointing out is a narrow spread bar, that dips below the previous bar and closes on towards it's high, meaning that as price fell and no one sold.

Think less about the bar itself and focus more on the situation, in this situation it only makes sense that the Oct 16th bar be tested, and look at the very next bar after the test, it pushes through. It shows a positive reaction to the test, saying the market was satisfied there were no major sellers on the high volume bar.

Been looking at the daily chart of GU for a couple of days, I think I am wrong anyways on the bullish sentiment.
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  • #24,774
  • Oct 20, 2013 9:48pm Oct 20, 2013 9:48pm
Will be watching UCHF for the next few days.

First chart 4h based on LO. You can see on Oct 2nd big volume that knocked the market sideways.

Zoom into 1h you can see potential stopping volume on Oct 17, which the 18th failed to break the low of the 17th.
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  • #24,775
  • Oct 21, 2013 4:28pm Oct 21, 2013 4:28pm
I mentioned a bit ago about a long bias on the NZDUSD, I had a few pm's about it so I though I'd post something I'm looking at.
When I trade VSA and apply it to the Forex markets I take a very simple approach. When price enters an area of previous high volume demand or supply it becomes very challenging for me to analyze from a pure single bar by bar standpoint. I would rather take into consideration a period of bars (time) and apply VSA theory.
A simple review of the current NZDUSD show we are in a clear uptrend. A look at the chart below show a perfect 2 bar reversal followed be tests albeit too high of volume for my liking. Some traders will wait for a test of the 2 bar low or a ns to buy into. My strategy involves the high volume tests appearing after the 2 bar reversal.
A break of the .8478 test high on the 1 hour would trigger me into a long trade with a stop below the 2 bar low and a target of a new high with a 3-1 r:r entry.


A light news session today combined with the NFP release tomorrow there will be volatility coming into to market.
Some of the great minds on this thread like HiddenGap pres, mal to name a few have developed their own personal style of trading VSA that works for them all the while trading the same principles. For me that is the beauty of VSA.
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  • #24,776
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:01am Oct 22, 2013 5:01am
Hi Malc,
rather interesting volume distribution on EURJPY. Can you kindly take a look at the daily time frame and share your thoughts.
Thank you.
  • #24,777
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:35am Oct 22, 2013 8:35am
Result of the NZDUSD setup.
Move stops to be.
You have to love NFP days.
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  • #24,778
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:32am Oct 22, 2013 9:32am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Result of the NZDUSD setup. Move stops to be. You have to love NFP days. {image}
That's for sure. Volitility rules and is what we (or at least I) live for.

Lovely trade Sono!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,779
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:52am Oct 22, 2013 9:52am
For those who like smaller time frames, take a peak at the gbpjpy.
I would like to see some blow off bars on a few of the major pairs today or tomorrow.
  • #24,780
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:44pm Oct 22, 2013 2:44pm
good day all on this wonderfull thread...i just want to say you guys are doing a great job,unfortunately am late to the party. It seems the thread is relatively quietly.... Would just want to ask how i get to speed with you people.......please anybody and everybody reply..thanks
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