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We were fools to believe candlesticks can predict

  • #41
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:17am Oct 22, 2013 7:17am
No! absolutely not - not if you have an edge...when I enter the market because my edge has developed-I am doing so because on a large sample x % of occasions in the past to that point in time ...price did y - that is all I know...I make no prediction. This is an important, some way would say critical distinction...I trade an edge and it has nothing to do with prediction...I have no idea on what occasions my edge develops that a successful outcome will result....therefore I cannot predict it....I just play the edge. This distinction may be just semantics to some - but I believe it is more than that - it is an important distinction in mindset.

Quoting chucklots
{quote} Yes, precisely. When one buys/sells they are directly making the prediction that price will move in their direction. This is a simple fact to me. Some do not like this term I guess, and I have read many say "you don't have to predict, just follow" or "you don't have to predict" which is just simply wrong. One has to have an edge whether that be information, stats, knowledge, intuition, some skill they have that helps them determine this. If markets were truly random or 100% efficient it would be a waste of time and dare I say......
ex member
  • #42
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:17am Oct 22, 2013 7:17am
Ultimately this boils down to 1 simple core truth.

"I'm right and everyone else is wrong"

Now can we please go for 25 pages of debating this? I'm really up for that and see it as a very valuable use of time.

Thanks.
Anything can happen.
  • #43
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:27am Oct 22, 2013 7:27am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Or that price has moved the other way and they must buy/sell to exit a trade thus pushing price in the opposing direction. I feel its easier to predict where a group of traders will place their stops, and I need order feeds to hear about large traders entering the market. Candles, patterns, all aftermath of buying and selling. If we can find an area others must trade, we can take advantage and trade with (or against) them depending on whats going on with that pair, positive sentiment or negative which would be the difference between a buy...
Yes you're touching on market mechanics here, I was just stating that you (the trader), when you buy/sell you are predicting it will move your way to profit, just a general statement. I also use the news feeds and market talk but price action will help you determine what is really happening and is what guides me ultimately. I am trying to align myself with the force (the larger traders) not trade against it. I always wait for a signal or confirmation in the form of price action. Some might be more aggressive in their anticipations and I don't think there is a right or wrong there, it's up to you and your style as a trader. Whatever works.
  • #44
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:42am Oct 22, 2013 7:42am
Quoting bbmac
No! absolutely not - not if you have an edge...when I enter the market because my edge has developed-I am doing so because on a large sample x % of occasions in the past to that point in time ...price did y - that is all I know...I make no prediction. This is an important, some way would say critical distinction...I trade an edge and it has nothing to do with prediction...I have no idea on what occasions my edge develops that a successful outcome will result....therefore I cannot predict it....I just play the edge. This distinction may be just semantics...
Fact is all trading involves prediction. You need an edge, this is clear. Here is where you are wrong... When you buy or sell spot you are implicitly predicting price will go your way. So whether you want to admit this or not, is not my problem. Yes you are playing semantics in stubborn fashion.
  • #45
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:53am Oct 22, 2013 7:53am
it's about how you react to what is happening.

Quoting ddinnov
Ultimately this boils down to 1 simple core truth. "I'm right and everyone else is wrong" Now can we please go for 25 pages of debating this? I'm really up for that and see it as a very valuable use of time. Thanks.
1 post closer to the goal!
  • #46
  • Oct 22, 2013 7:57am Oct 22, 2013 7:57am
Quoting chucklots
{quote}When you buy or sell spot you are implicitly predicting price will go your way.

Is this what a professional gambler does when he throws the dice?

Point bbmac is making is no different, when he places a trade he is literally playing the odds. There is a difference, it's a simple case of "here is a valid trade signal - here I place trade" He's not predicting any outcome any more than a gambler predicts that he will throw a double 6.

He knows that statistically he has an edge and that whatever happens next is beyond his control and there's no use or value in trying to predict what will happen or getting hung up on what actually does happen.

"Trading in the zone" explains this shift in mind set in a lot of detail
Anything can happen.
  • #47
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:08am Oct 22, 2013 8:08am
Quoting ddinnov
{quote} Is this what a professional gambler does when he throws the dice? Point bbmac is making is no different, when he places a trade he is literally playing the odds. There is a difference, it's a simple case of "here is a valid trade signal - here I place trade" He's not predicting any outcome any more than a gambler predicts that he will throw a double 6. He knows that statistically he has an edge and that whatever happens next is beyond his control and there's no use or value in trying to predict what will happen or getting hung up on what...
No this is not what a dice player is doing, he is purely gambling, like roulette. Do you know any professional dice players? Unless you have a way of controlling dice and shifting the outcome in your favor than no. Poker yes, Blackjack yes. But at that point I call it gaming not gambling. Playing an edge is prediction, clearly.

You can shift your mindset however you see fit. I did not read that book, and if this shift in mindset helps you with your psychology to trade your edge then so be it. The fact remains though, it is prediction/anticipation.
  • #48
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:14am Oct 22, 2013 8:14am
Whatever works for you mate

I'll revert to my previous position that "I'm right and anyone who disagrees with me is wrong"

Because needing to be right helps my trading a lot...
Anything can happen.
  • #49
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:17am Oct 22, 2013 8:17am
Quoting ddinnov
Whatever works for you mate I'll revert to my previous position that "I'm right and anyone who disagrees with me is wrong" Because needing to be right helps my trading a lot...
Needing to "be right" or "be the smartest" will actually hurt your trading. As I have stated in another post, we are not trading for intellect, we are trading for money.

You guys are trying to word fact a different way and disagree with it, for a shift in mindset. I hope that chapter was worth the money.
  • #50
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:24am Oct 22, 2013 8:24am
Me personally realized that it isnt about predicting per se, but about isolating what is known from what is unknown.

There are many elements out of ones control, so what is the point of beating it over and over again expecting different outcomes?

Rather one should focus on what is in our control, and work it.

I dont trade the market, i trade my position - because that is what i can control.
  • #51
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:29am Oct 22, 2013 8:29am
Ooops! the title should have been WERE WE FOOLS?

we will only know several years later,some maybe decades or even a lifetime wasted.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #52
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:31am Oct 22, 2013 8:31am
Quoting chucklots
{quote} Needing to "be right" or "be the smartest" will actually hurt your trading. As I have stated in another post, we are not trading for intellect, we are trading for money. You guys are trying to word fact a different way and disagree with it, for a shift in mindset. I hope that chapter was worth the money.
I'm just messing around

You're probably right about the prediction thing for most people. Not everyone though, Mark Douglas is proof of that.

My focus is not to get caught up in trying to predict and accept 100% that an edge is nothing more than a probability of one thing happening over the other. This is a key concept for me that I find very useful.

You may disagree but as you correctly state:

Quote
Needing to "be right" or "be the smartest" will actually hurt your trading.

You may or may not be conscious of this but some of the language in your previous posts doesn't support the above statement. For example:

Quote
This is a simple fact to me. Some do not like this


Quote
Fact is all trading involves prediction


Quote
Here is where you are wrong

Now I'm getting drawn into an internet ego battle - must stop now!
Anything can happen.
  • #53
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:39am Oct 22, 2013 8:39am
Quoting ddinnov
I'm just messing around You're probably right about the prediction thing for most people. Not everyone though, Mark Douglas is proof of that. My focus is not to get caught up in trying to predict and accept 100% that an edge is nothing more than a probability of one thing happening over the other. This is a key concept for me that I find very useful. You may disagree but as you correctly state: {quote} You may or may not be conscious of this but some of the language in your previous posts doesn't support the above statement. For example: {quote}...
Ok, lol, I should rephrase "this is a simple fact to me" to "This a simple fact". Is that better? Takes me out of the equation. It's not me needing to be right or wrong in this petty argument.

Also I think it is fine if you don't like a term and prefer another, but it is the same. My original response to the first guy who just said "you cannot predict ever!" then to follow it with "You can only make an *educated guess*" which is the same thing. Your edge is what helps you make the anticipation or forecast of the price move. It doesn't have to be right every time.
  • #54
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:40am Oct 22, 2013 8:40am
Quoting bbmac
No! absolutely not - not if you have an edge...when I enter the market because my edge has developed-I am doing so because on a large sample x % of occasions in the past to that point in time ...price did y - that is all I know...I make no prediction. This is an important, some way would say critical distinction...I trade an edge and it has nothing to do with prediction...I have no idea on what occasions my edge develops that a successful outcome will result....therefore I cannot predict it....I just play the edge. This distinction may be just semantics...
I think that it is just semantics, and the three of us talking about the same thing here. Nobody is claiming to be 100% certain of a trade outcome. In fact, predicting the outcome of a specific trade would be an exercise in futility, a fool's errand. Predictions in trading are probabilistic in nature. What matters is the net gain over a large number of trades, playing the edge as you say. In that I completely agree with your view.

All we're saying here is that whenever the past is used to infer the future, a prediction is made. You may make no prediction yourself, but the edge you use itself being based on historical data always implies a prediction/estimate/expectation of some sort.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #55
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:43am Oct 22, 2013 8:43am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} I think that it is just semantics, and the three of us talking about the same thing here. Nobody is claiming to be 100% certain of a trade outcome. In fact, predicting the outcome of a specific trade would be an exercise in futility, a fool's errand. Predictions in trading are probabilistic in nature. What matters is the net gain over a large number of trades, playing the edge as you say. In that I completely agree with your view. All we're saying here is that whenever the past is used to infer the future, a prediction is made. You may make...
I'm glad someone gets it.

I am bored as some can probably tell, and enjoy a good argument from time to time. But I must say I am over it now, it's just gone too far.
  • #56
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:43am Oct 22, 2013 8:43am
Quoting bbmac
Undoubtedly the thread starter's inherent suggestion in his post was that no edge could be found in price action ..and to this extent he/she is wrong, although it may be deduced from his/her post that he/she has found no edge himself thus far using candlestick analysis. Your responses to this thread too were based on the same underlying preposition re TA in general...which again is wrong. Your later more considered responses to the thread are however getting to the nub of the issue, - ie that there are many requisites to being a long...
Sorry but this is merely your opinion and there are many who will disagree with you, including me. Try reading one of the market wizard books or you could listen to the most recent book of the series http://www.amazon.com/Hedge-Fund-Mar.../dp/1118273044 and particularly listen to their views on using "price action" for entry or technical analysis across the board for that matter. I wont say you're wrong... like you have surmised I am wrong, but instead I will tell you that outside of retail trading and forums like this, your views are not shared by most of the individuals influential and successful enough to be interviewed.

Either way, good luck with your approach. My posts were not intended to cause you personal offence but to only offer a different perspective learnt through experience.
  • #57
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:52am Oct 22, 2013 8:52am
Quoting pemully
Ooops! the title should have been WERE WE FOOLS?
way to take a neutral stance on this, pemully.
  • #58
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:53am Oct 22, 2013 8:53am
Quoting TranceTrader
{quote} Sorry but this is merely your opinion and there are many who will disagree with you, including me. Try reading one of the market wizard books or you could listen to the most recent book of the series http://www.amazon.com/Hedge-Fund-Mar.../dp/1118273044 and particularly listen to their views on using "price action" for entry or technical analysis across the board for that matter. I wont say you're wrong... like you have surmised I am wrong, but instead I will tell you that outside of retail trading and forums...
I missed your earlier post on Mark Douglas, which was used in arguments against me here and you rightly pointed out, he himself is not a profitable trader. This should speak for itself.

I agree no mindset will make you a profitable trader if you don't have an edge, though I believe some mindsets will make you a better trader. I'd like to add that traders are always questioning their edge as some edges are lost as markets change and the only real way to quantify your edge is through past performance or data unless it is quasi arbitrage or something, which we will not achieve on retail spot alone. This is something we all must live with.
  • #59
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:55am Oct 22, 2013 8:55am
Quoting chucklots
{quote} I'm glad someone gets it. I am bored as some can probably tell, and enjoy a good argument from time to time. But I must say I am over it now, it's just gone too far.
I feel your pain, but you need to take it easy. Remember this is internet forum talk lol.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #60
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:03am Oct 22, 2013 9:03am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} I feel your pain, but you need to take it easy. Remember this is internet forum talk lol.
This is true... Shame on me.
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