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The clarity thread

  • #181
  • Oct 18, 2013 1:35pm Oct 18, 2013 1:35pm
Quoting Thenew
Thanks Spacebuck, for being honest with us, telling us about your losses, i think everyones experiences losses in this business but few like to admit, it takes a brave person to say i screwed up and this was how it happened. If you donīt mind can you post that chart and show where you did bailout accepting the loss, as i think not only winners will makes us learn but also losses (present oportunity to improve our skills). Iīm not very active here as i wish (lack of time at the moment) but i really like read yours post during the weekend... Regards...
Hi, sure!

This audusd loss was somehow a surprise to me, i had in mind the longterm uptrend, and even knowing that this medium-term downtrend was probably just a retrace, i still was expecting at least a kind of doublebottom, or some sort of support-visit before any relevant upmove.
As we know, audusd just went up without caring at all about supports or doublebottoms etc.

I just take the losses at 0.9530 (last month's high), at that point it was clear that there was happening a sort of "buy whatever is offered" in the market, a rush to buy, on one side the super aud, on the other side the weak usd, take the loss was the best thing to do.

However, this particular loss have shown how much the market was looking to sell the usd, and this realization used to be pretty useful, as you may notice looking at usd related pairs (perhaps i will make a post about this next week, no hurry for now).

So yes, this audusd trade had potentials, but for one reason or another things went not as expected, it can happen and will happen again from time to time, what we can do is just recognize that things are getting out of control in a timely manner, cut the losses, forget about it (it may need a day or two away from the charts, at least for me), and then move on to the next trading opportunity.

For sure i'm not going to trade audusd anymore for some time, i didn't like at all the lack of liquidity of the past weeks.

Below the charts:

1h chart: we can see how i was trying to sell high
4h chart: we can see how there was an overall downtrend to help the bearish view
weekly chart: we can see how this downtrend was just a retrace of the major uptrend

tricky situation indeed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh4.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdweekly.png Size: 61 KB
  • #182
  • Oct 20, 2013 8:11am Oct 20, 2013 8:11am
We all know the "Fractals" indicator.

The "Fractal" concept as per se, have nothing to do with such indicator.
From time to time (maybe not in this particular thread) i used to write about the fractal nature of the market, this image/animatio may somehow point out what the kind of concept lies behind the "fractal" nature of the market.

P.s.
I just found out this gif on google+!
Attached Image
  • #183
  • Oct 21, 2013 8:24am Oct 21, 2013 8:24am
Looking around the web i see a bit of uncertainty regarding the short-medium term direction of the eurusd.

A simple tip: it's going up.
  • #184
  • Oct 21, 2013 2:19pm Oct 21, 2013 2:19pm
-- The truth, the real ugly truth, once and for all --

We are on the homestrech, on the pipeline, in this thread.

We all have read about the famous 5/95 successful-loosers ratio, the famous statistics that say 5% are the winners in trading, and 95% are the "loosers".

My personal view, is that this number is yet not really accurate.
Considering the 5% "winners", if we focus on that number, we may see that this group of 5% include many short-medium term "lucky" traders, that are somehow able to achieve a breakeven/low-profit results, most of them however don't survive on a long-term/lifetime perspective.
In my opinion the real number of really successful long-term traders that are able to achieve real self-sustaining profits and with a solid understanding of the market are around the 0,05-0,1% of the partecipants, optimistically absolutely not more than 0.5/1% (way very very much optimistically).

I'm sorry, forgive me or not, this is my personal opinion.

Obviously, the key that open the door to this very small group is not about the emotions (fear/greed), not about the personal wealth, not about the will/desire of success.
Of course, the key is all about understand what's going on in the markets in any given moment.

Now, this understanding cannot be taught, it can only born and grow with experience.
The ugly truth is that, experience is not understanding, most of traders that stay in this game for a lifetime yet have no idea about what's going on in the markets at all.

Understanding is not an automatic phenomenon, perhpahs it is linked to intelligence, or intuition.
You need to have a strong intuition to ask yourself the right questions that will bring the right answers.

From this point of view, it's clear how only such a very small group of traders are able to get the real understanding/edge in the markets, it's just how things works.

My advice in all this: forget about anything you have ever read or learned about trading and about the markets, the "key" is not available anywhere, those who have guessed it they have never disclosed it and maybe never will do (no way you can ever find on the internet or on some books, forget about it), you have to look at the market with the eyes of a scientist, develop your own theories, and if you are smart/lucky enough you may even come to the point to see the markets in a way that nobody see.

My message to you is: there is more, there is more to be discovered, right there.
But in order to not waste all your time, please discard al the common knowledge/understanding about the markets, move on your own, think with your own brain.

As some of you may have guessed, this is a goodbye, my work here has come to an end.

Remember, watch the market with the eyes of a scientist, do not settle, look over the common knowledge, and i wish you the best of luck, you will need it soo much!

Yours,
Howard

P.s.
I've enjoyed writing in this thread soo much, and really enjoyed all your contribution and comments, what a wonderful thing!
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  • #185
  • Oct 21, 2013 11:52pm Oct 21, 2013 11:52pm
quote....

My advice in all this: forget about anything you have ever read or learned about trading and about the markets, the "key" is not available anywhere, those who have guessed it they have never disclosed it and maybe never will do (no way you can ever find on the internet or on some books, forget about it), you have to look at the market with the eyes of a scientist, develop your own theories, and if you are smart/lucky enough you may even come to the point to see the markets in a way that nobody see.




i came to this conclusion about 18 months ago now after trying nearly everything 'out there'. it is so nice to actually hear/see someone else think the same thing and be able to put it into words.


thank you and happy trading


regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #186
  • Oct 22, 2013 12:48am Oct 22, 2013 12:48am
Quoting spaceduck
-- The truth, the real ugly truth, once and for all -- We are on the homestrech, on the pipeline, in this thread. We all have read about the famous 5/95 successful-loosers ratio, the famous statistics that say 5% are the winners in trading, and 95% are the "loosers". My personal view, is that this number is yet not really accurate. Considering the 5% "winners", if we focus on that number, we may see that this group of 5% include many short-medium term "lucky" traders, that are somehow able to achieve a breakeven/low-profit results, most of...
Thank you for your contribution spaceduck, I know you are leaving this space but if possible just keep in touch.

Cheers
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #187
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:33pm Oct 22, 2013 8:33pm
Thanks, yeah keep in touch!
I just have nothing more to say in this particular thread, i'm still opening this website everyday (mostly to give a look to the FF calendar, but once opened i use to watch around and have some fun reading here and there.
So i'm just here!

Ok i take advantage of this post to share a tip, now that eurusd have reached the january high (oh i hope most of you have profited from it, to me that was awesome), my attention move to gbpusd and his delay.
The tip here is: we are going there, if you know what i mean

Soo sad to see in the various threads that almost everybody is taking this moves on the wrong side. But that's just how the world work.

Keep in touch si!
  • #188
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:01pm Oct 23, 2013 4:01pm
My message to you is: there is more, there is more to be discovered, right there.

But in order to not waste all your time, please discard al the common knowledge/understanding about the markets, move on your own, think with your own brain.


Rigth on as usual duck, this is the reason why i keep almost my time hidden in my grave... I mean iīm very grateful for the wonderful traders i faced in here at FF and outside too, and i still get lots of insigths about the market dinamycs from more experienced people.

But lately realised that i can make a lot of questions, but if i donīt see it by myself there is no use for me, cause i will be trading with fear of failing cause i am not sure what iīm doing, and what helps us here (in my humble view) is experience, lots of mistakes, until hopefully some day those mistakes will turn in what some call expertise aka (experience) ))
Just hope one day i can pass thru some of my knowledge like others have done for me... (for now iīm of no use for people, sorry )

Respect Duck...
  • #189
  • Nov 20, 2013 7:11am Nov 20, 2013 7:11am
Some time has passed from my last post, i'm just having some thoughts, and what better place than this thread to write them?

Ok, straight to the point.

Observing the markets, the usd dollar seems ready for some big action.

We have the FOCM minutes later today, my idea is that there "may" be a unexpected surprise right there, it may as well be some kind of tapering-related surprise.

With yellen in charge (and everybody know she is just bernanke 2.0 female version), and as most analysts point out, such scenario is totally unprobable.
However, the charts says that something big is cooking in the pot, so...

Keep the eyes opened on this

Edit:
On the other side, a surprise on the opposite direction may as well be possible, so always remember to think with your own brain.
Again, i feel something is cooking..
  • #190
  • Nov 20, 2013 7:25am Nov 20, 2013 7:25am
Quoting spaceduck
Some time has passed from my last post, i'm just having some thoughts, and what better place than this thread to write them? Ok, straight to the point. Observing the markets, the usd dollar seems ready for some big action. We have the FOCM minutes later today, my idea is that there "may" be a unexpected surprise right there, it may as well be some kind of tapering-related surprise. With yellen in charge (and everybody know she is just bernanke 2.0 female version), and as most analysts point out, such scenario is totally unprobable. However, the...
A few minutes later.
"ECB said to weigh -0.1% deposit rate if more easing needed"

Usd being bought
  • #191
  • Edited 11:59pm Nov 20, 2013 11:02pm | Edited 11:59pm
Another thought, straight to the point:

I understand yesterday the "usd call" went here only a few minutes before the action begin, so not really enough time to take advantage of such call.

So here we are, EURAUD.
We are looking at 1.4750 as a target, it's around 300pips from now (current entry price: 1.4435), a good potential profit.

Enjoy!
  • #192
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:23pm Nov 20, 2013 11:23pm
Quoting spaceduck
Another thought, straight to the point:

Straight to the point........... right on !!!
Are you still giving useless advice or looking for confirmation for some of
your ideas ?

I recall something about you saying that GBP was going to 1.66 shortly before it went to
1.59 and a few others.

Don't offer advice when you don't seem to have a clue.
But I'm probably wrong.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #193
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:44pm Nov 20, 2013 11:44pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Straight to the point........... right on !!! Are you still giving useless advice or looking for confirmation for some of your ideas ? I recall something about you saying that GBP was going to 1.66 shortly before it went to 1.59 and a few others. Don't offer advice when you don't seem to have a clue. But I'm probably wrong.
Well, i remember of course, the cable is still heading to january high around 1.6340 area, like it or not.

Clearly it's the job of every trader to use appropriate lotsizes in relation to the accountsize, and use an appropriate stoploss in relation to the market range/volatility.

I enjoy in sharing what's going on, but everybody is responsable of his own trading, if you had problems in your trading it's your job to study it and fix it, blaming somebody else means only to waste a great opportunity to learn something new.

By the way, i'm sorry, i know losses are ugly, we all experience them, it's a part of the game.
Take care!
  • #194
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:07am Nov 21, 2013 12:07am
Quoting spaceduck
{quote} Well, i remember of course, the cable is still heading to january high around 1.6340 area, like it or not. Clearly it's the job of every trader to use appropriate lotsizes in relation to the accountsize, and use an appropriate stoploss in relation to the market range/volatility. I enjoy in sharing what's going on, but everybody is responsable of his own trading, if you had problems in your trading it's your job to study it and fix it, blaming somebody else means only to waste a great opportunity to learn something new. By the way, i'm sorry,...
you are right about this. If somebody doesnt like something, some idea or someone, best thing to do is move away from their idea, their thread & from them. There is no reason for one to shout that the other person is useless, because if nobody visit their thread, nobody interact with them then they themselves will understand that they are not contributing. No need to malign someone for their wrong analysis. For record, I like spaceduck wisdom & having conversation with him, but I dont follow his method of trading. Everyone is on their own when it comes to trading. Enjoy someones post & appreciate if you feel it added value to your trading & if not then just leave the space silently. This are just my thoughts.

;-)
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #195
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:32am Nov 21, 2013 12:32am
Quoting FxSaint
{quote}



http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post7104410
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #196
  • Nov 21, 2013 5:35am Nov 21, 2013 5:35am
Quoting spaceduck
Another thought, straight to the point: I understand yesterday the "usd call" went here only a few minutes before the action begin, so not really enough time to take advantage of such call. So here we are, EURAUD. We are looking at 1.4750 as a target, it's around 300pips from now (current entry price: 1.4435), a good potential profit. Enjoy!
--- I'm out early on this one, 110 pips on the bag, congrats to the others Euraud bulls!
  • #197
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:41pm Nov 21, 2013 11:41pm
friday -

watch out for usd weakness
  • #198
  • Edited 8:27am Nov 26, 2013 8:13am | Edited 8:27am
final week of november -

The usd index is loosing power, like an old sick man, walking a tightrope.

Some of us are already well positioned in the market, waiting for what seems a probable (maybe?) scenario.

May this be an interesting week for everybody!

Cheers
  • #199
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:39pm Dec 5, 2013 1:39pm
What is the best advice i can give to anybody (regardless of your experience as a trader, knowledge, race, capital-power):

There are actually a few advices that are extremely powerful, and you have for one moment to forget anything you think you know, and just try to belive them.

1) Avoid any kind of foundamental news, information, knowledge, situation etc.
this include any sort of news, central-bank annoucement, qe-taper, gdp, various bullshits.
They have no real value whatsoever, they have no impact.

2) Trust only the charts, any foundamental reality and/or sum of foundamental realities and their market reactions are perfectly recorded and delivered to you in the charts. The charts represent the market reactions and expectations to all the previous, current and futures foundamental news known and unknown (insider informations) to the public (you).

3) (and probably the most important) Go with the current trend.
Why i've writte the point 1) and 2), because all the foundamental theater show are recorded and delivered to you in the charts, so all you need to see are charts.
Now, once we can understand this fact, we can observe the charts. And, if we can see a clear trend, the best safest most powerful way to trade the markets is to go with the current trend. If the market is going up, the best way to make safe profits is to buy. If the market is going down, the best way to make safe profits is to sell. Each of us have our own way to define a trend, but if you find yourself in doubt, just look what the current retail traders are doing, if they are selling, the trend is surely up. If they are buying, the trend is surely down. (you can see it on the FF website, or you can just give a look to myfxbook website for a more powerful view).

So, as long as you don't pay attention to the foundamental theater, and stick to the current market trend, the profits are pretty sure.

More easy:

Just buy during an uptrend, and take profits whenever price break the current short-term highs, or sell during a downtrend and take profits whenever price break the current short-term lows.

This is how to make safe and big money in this game.
If for some reason you will find yourself trading against the trend (it will happen from time to time), well sometime you may get lucky (or just you may be as pretty good to be able to pick a top/bottom), but overall you will just taking useless risks and in the long-term (doing it many times) you will loose your pants.
On the other side, if you will costantly and only trade with the trend, there is no limit to the amount of wealth you can accumulate.

This post may sound as something of "nothing new", but you may as well print it and keep it just near your monitor, with time you may see that the value of those lines is way bigger than anything you may ever find out during your trading "career".

And goodbye!
  • #200
  • Dec 5, 2013 8:51pm Dec 5, 2013 8:51pm
Quoting spaceduck
What is the best advice i can give to anybody: Go with the current trend.
Great advice Howard. I've actually enjoyed seing your posts in the sea of posts by the retail traders in the interactive trading forum. Hope to hear more from you in this tread.

I know you don't use stop losses. At what time do you actually accept a drawdown?

Another question. Do you pyramid your entries in the negative side doubling the risk of the original entry? And if you do, how do you perform this action.

Keep it up with everything man. Cheers.
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
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