Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 165 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,281
  • Oct 20, 2013 8:27pm Oct 20, 2013 8:27pm
Quoting GregT
Anyone following the EURCAD? I would be interested in comparing my Weekly Big Picture markup below to anyone else's Questions I would appreciate feedback on: 1) Do you think I missed any Weekly zones? 2) Have I marked the zone boundaries appropriately? 3) Is the Demand Zone "in control", a valid zone I should be planning to trade? (or should it be the lower DZ at 1.2188) {image} I am Swing Trading using: Weekly - Big Picture TF Daily - trend lines H4 - execution TF.
Hi here is my analysis following Alfonso's rules. There are two possible setups.

1. monthly/daily - We have to wait for fresh & original supply levels to form to short.
2. weekly/240 - Weekly demand was taken out by a few pips & we are back into fresh weekly supply. Fresh 240 supply levels can be taken.

This analysis follows Alfonso's rules which a printed on the 1st page of the thread.
Hope this helps
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad_monthly_21_oct.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad_daily_21_oct.png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad_weekly_21_oct.png Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad_240_21_oct.png Size: 74 KB
  • #3,282
  • Edited 1:13pm Oct 21, 2013 12:10am | Edited 1:13pm
After reading the theoretical part of this thread I am left with 2 questions.

1. Regarding setting Take Profit. Lets say I'm swing trading using Weekly and H4 view. If I get into a short position from a 4H supply zone that is inside Weekly supply would I target the opposite H4 demand zone+30 pip or the opposite Weekly demand zone+30 pip ?

2. Is there a difference between original and fresh SD levels?
  • #3,283
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:50am Oct 21, 2013 3:50am
Quoting Pro Trader
{quote} Hi here is my analysis following Alfonso's rules. There are two possible setups. 1. monthly/daily - We have to wait for fresh & original supply levels to form to short. 2. weekly/240 - Weekly demand was taken out by a few pips & we are back into fresh weekly supply. Fresh 240 supply levels can be taken. This analysis follows Alfonso's rules which a printed on the 1st page of the thread. Hope this helps {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi Pro Trader,

In my opinion the weekly supply is drawn differently, the new weekly supply you mentioned would stack underneath this level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image4.png Size: 69 KB
  • #3,284
  • Oct 21, 2013 4:19am Oct 21, 2013 4:19am
panoramia(Alfonzo):

i was looking on your chart that you posted for RS2000 have a question

did you also took entry on mark "A"?
coz this is similar situation that you had your trade later on chart.
we have nice swing formed RBR(rally based rally) breaking tops and then pullback to base market 'a'
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: alon.png Size: 209 KB
  • #3,285
  • Oct 21, 2013 6:32am Oct 21, 2013 6:32am
Quoting adriann
{quote} ...another pairs can get sooner entries. {image}
Adriann - I see your point about other pairs getting to entry points at different times. I am currently managing the markups for 6 pairs and am thinking I might be able to cope with watching more pairs, given there seems to be little overhead on a daily basis once the chart is marked with zones and trendlines.

So, my question for you, and any traders who feel they are actually achieving success with this strategy - what number of pairs can your brain comfortably manage each week to allow yourself the opportunity to find a pair that is ready to trade and still allow you to keep up with the new markups?

I would appreciate comment from anyone to be sent to me via a private message so we don't interrupt this great thread.

Cheers All.
  • #3,286
  • Oct 21, 2013 6:49am Oct 21, 2013 6:49am
Quoting GregT
{quote} Adriann - I see your point about other pairs getting to entry points at different times. I am currently managing the markups for 6 pairs and am thinking I might be able to cope with watching more pairs, given there seems to be little overhead on.
i think for swing trading its not hard to manage more pairs.i have currently 13pairs in watchlist and only 4 of them iam focusing right now, those who are closer to s/d zone that are importat for me. my lowest tf is H4 so rescan all of them is easy things to do.
it would be harder for intraday trading of course.
  • #3,287
  • Edited 3:50pm Oct 21, 2013 8:03am | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting Reacto
{quote} Hi Pro Trader, In my opinion the weekly supply is drawn differently, the new weekly supply you mentioned would stack underneath this level. {image}
Yer your right. I only done it this way to clearly see the new weekly trend supply just formed or the coloured boxes would overlap. Did'nt want to confuse the weekly trend supply I was basing the trade off.
  • #3,288
  • Oct 22, 2013 12:06am Oct 22, 2013 12:06am
EURJPY

WEEKLY
http://s21.postimg.org/9ut7xcwg7/screenshot_1.png


DAILY
http://s21.postimg.org/ally34ytj/screenshot_2.png


H4
http://s21.postimg.org/hdgyjqd6v/screenshot_3.png
  • #3,289
  • Oct 22, 2013 12:10am Oct 22, 2013 12:10am
unfourtunately i didn't get the auto SD level drawing indicator. may be it was deleted.
I would be grateful if someone give that to me.
  • #3,290
  • Oct 22, 2013 2:59am Oct 22, 2013 2:59am
Quoting rickyrk
unfourtunately i didn't get the auto SD level drawing indicator. may be it was deleted. I would be grateful if someone give that to me.
pls refer to post #1. it is there.
  • #3,291
  • Oct 22, 2013 3:04am Oct 22, 2013 3:04am
dear rickyrk,

here is the automatic zone drawing indicator thanks to Insanity Industries also mentioned by Alfonso.

hope it helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 II_SupDem.mq4   29 KB | 510 downloads
  • #3,292
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:23am Oct 22, 2013 4:23am
Quoting rickyrk
EURJPY
Hi Ricky - have you planned your entry for EURJPY yet?

I am planning short entry at 137.00, but SL has to be 175 pips to get outside the weekly supply zone. We'll see what happens
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyweekly.png Size: 58 KB
  • #3,293
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:47am Oct 22, 2013 4:47am
I am seeking advice about zone markups as I CANNOT find the answer in Alfonso's post #1.

Consider the attached snippet of H4 chart that I would be using as my Execution TF

Should each of these H4 zones be traded? If not, why not?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Zones_question.png Size: 26 KB
  • #3,294
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:57am Oct 22, 2013 4:57am
Quoting GregT
I am seeking advice about zone markups as I CANNOT find the answer in Alfonso's post #1. Consider the attached snippet of H4 chart that I would be using as my Execution TF Should each of these H4 zones be traded? If not, why not? {image}
draw your weekly zones and your H4 trendline and you will probably be more accurate which zones to take or not to take...
  • #3,295
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:12am Oct 22, 2013 5:12am
Quoting caparzo
{quote} draw your weekly zones and your H4 trendline and you will probably be more accurate which zones to take or not to take...
I am OK with drawing the weekly zones and seeing where my H4 zones are in the weekly curve, but what criteria do you apply before you would trade the H4 zone? Do you wait until you see a H4 zone coinciding with a weekly zone or will you take a H4 zone that is within 30% of the weekly zone?

Also, do you prefer to trade zones A and C because the momentum candles that originated from those zones actually took out the previous Higher Highs that I marked with the green lines?
  • #3,296
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:28am Oct 22, 2013 5:28am
Quoting GregT
{quote} I am OK with drawing the weekly zones and seeing where my H4 zones are in the weekly curve, but what criteria do you apply before you would trade the H4 zone? Do you wait until you see a H4 zone coinciding with a weekly zone or will you take a H4 zone that is within 30% of the weekly zone? Also, do you prefer to trade zones A and C because the momentum candles that originated from those zones actually took out the previous Higher Highs that I marked with the green lines?
i asked this info because, in this case (pic) if your HTF analysis let you to take 4h long setups, you can take all fresh 4H levels that are with respect to your 4H TL.
Once the TL is broken, you are not allowed to take long setups unless it is original AND fresh at the same time and very low on the curve.
And once as in this case we make another Higher-High, you can draw another 4H TL and continue to take all fresh levels with respect to this new 4H TL, until you reach 70% of the curve.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Zones_question.png Size: 55 KB
  • #3,297
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:42am Oct 22, 2013 5:42am
Alfonso,

and all others in the thread,

Your experience and knowledge will deeply be appreciated:

PLEASE, CORRECT ANYTHING & EVERYTHING YOU SEE WRONG AND MISGUIDING FOR ALL OTHER MEMBERS SO AS TO AVOID MISCONCEPTION.

APPRECIATED...

LEGEND:
a. RECTANGLES; BLANK/EMPTY RECTANGLES=HIGHER TIMEFRAME (D1)
a1. RECTANGLES; SOLID/FILLED RECTANGLES=LOWER TIMEFRAME (H1)
b. COLOURS; SUPPLY: RED=FRESH SUPPLY ZONES
b1. COLOURS; SUPPLY: GOLD=NON-FRESH SUPPLY ZONES
b2. COLOURS; DEMAND: LIME=FRESH DEMAND ZONES
b3. COLOURS; DEMAND: PALE GREEN=NON-FRESH DEMAND ZONES

***
template and indicators (automatic S/D zone indicator thanks to Insanıty Industries + automatic Trendline + automatic Trend Direction indicator) which are in addition to Alfonso's are attached
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Ind-TD-DeMark-3-1_eng.mq4   15 KB | 624 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Trendlinesday.mq4   3 KB | 756 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 II_SupDem.mq4   29 KB | 640 downloads


SUMMARY:

PAIR: EUR/USD.
TIMEFRAMES: D1/H1.
FACTS: PRE-NFP; BETTER NO TRADE UNLESS HAVING STRONG S/D ZONES WITH HIGHER ODDS, WELL SET S/L AND T/P COVER AND T/P B/E PRICES.
TREND: D1=UP BUT STUCK IN A SB, H1=UP.
PRICE IS VERY HIGH AT THE HIGHER TIMEFRAME (D1) SUPPLY ZONE SINCE OCT. 17=NEARLY 1 WEEK (4 DAYS ALREADY).
SUPPLY ZONE HAS BEEN USED UP ALREADY.
STILL H1 NON-FRESH SUPPLY ZONES AVAILABLE HIGHER IN THE D1 NON-FRESH SUPPLY ZONE, BUT I PERSONALLY WOULD NOT TRUST AND LEAN ON THEM FOR ENTERING SHORT TRADE.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 57 KB


STRATEGY PROPOSED:

Given the above SUMMARY;

A. BUY ORDER @1.3621 (2 BUY ORDERS OF EQUAL POSITION SIZES; EX. 2 X 1.0 STD. LOTS)
B. S/L @1.3600
C. T/P1 (COVER; 1:1) @1.3643
D. T/P2 @1.3732 (20pips above D1 SUPPLY ZONE DISTAL LINE)
E. CARRY S/L TO B/E (1.3643) WHEN 1:3 RISK2REWARD REACHED @1.3686

CHARTS ATTACHED:

Thank you all and best of trade after the NFP today.

Tek
  • #3,298
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:54am Oct 22, 2013 5:54am
Quoting caparzo
{quote} i asked this info because, in this case (pic) if your HTF analysis let you to take 4h long setups, you can take all fresh 4H levels that are with respect to your 4H TL. Once the TL is broken, you are not allowed to take long setups unless it is original AND fresh at the same time and very low on the curve. And once as in this case we make another Higher-High, you can draw another 4H TL and continue to take all fresh levels with respect to this new 4H TL, until you reach 70% of the curve. {image}
I see - thanks Caparzo. You have answered another question I was trying to formulate about trading as price moves from one side of the weekly curve to the other
  • #3,299
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:35am Oct 22, 2013 9:35am
After reading the theoretical part of this thread I am left with 2 questions.

1. Regarding setting Take Profit. Lets say I'm swing trading using Weekly and H4 view. If I get into a short position from a 4H supply zone that is inside Weekly supply would I target the opposite H4 demand zone+30 pip or the opposite Weekly demand zone+30 pip ?

2. Is there a difference between original and fresh SD levels?
  • #3,300
  • Oct 22, 2013 9:39am Oct 22, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Deitreider
After reading the theoretical part of this thread I am left with 2 questions. 1. Regarding setting Take Profit. Lets say I'm swing trading using Weekly and H4 view. If I get into a short position from a 4H supply zone that is inside Weekly supply would I target the opposite H4 demand zone+30 pip or the opposite Weekly demand zone+30 pip ? 2. Is there a difference between original and fresh SD levels?
I see this is the second time you posted these same two questions.

Question 1 is a trade management question that really is up to each trader how they want to manage it. Some will set fixed TP's and others will trail the trade under the latest S&D bases as they form. Others still will combine both where they have a main target but lock in profit as they go. You need to watch PA and try and determine whether the 4hr demand zone will stop and reverse PA or will they go for the Weekly. We won't know this until we see PA at the 4hr demand.

Question 2 I have to ask if you read post #1? There is a section with big bold letters called;

FRESH LEVELS versus ORIGINAL LEVELS

Start there...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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