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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #43,641
  • Oct 19, 2013 12:50pm Oct 19, 2013 12:50pm
Hi Redsunfx

Trends are not only up or down they can be sideways, here is your chart with my interpretation of what is going on and how I would look to trade it (not that I trade these size time frames/scales, but a chart is just a chart), I would use the lower time frame to get better entries and to warn of when to adjust my trades, The trend lines I have added for you, there really is no need for them to spot POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES, I find the scouts, price/market structure and impulses help me with what I have found I need to know, but as Michael has said we all find our own way with time, patience and practice. It is all in the thread. hope this helps.

p.s just a thought…. there is more than one pair to trade so if you do not like this type of trend why not find one you do like and trade that instead.

Regards


Phil.


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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #43,642
  • Edited 11:15pm Oct 19, 2013 3:02pm | Edited 11:15pm
Quoting Redsunfx
My 2 cents analysis trend trading from 1995 to mid 2008 was the right way to trade , with only 2 trend change in 13 years ..... but since mid 2008 its a completly different ball game .... look at he chart below (monthly chart) since mid 2008 trend .... which trend ... ? {image}

Redsunfx
Here is my two cents
remember it is my personal opinion
Here is chart - It is 4 hours chart i made it as a line chart it just simple to view
If i have HH above previous high for me it is a starting of up trend
If i have LL under previous low for me it is a starting of down trend
If next High cant take previous it may be conjestion
If next low cant take previous low it may be conjection.
Start analizing at 1 ( just a random point)
1 High as previous High didnt took it above so might be a conjestion
2 Took previous low down trend maybe forming
3 Broke previous LL then we in down trend
4 No pull backs till 4 so we still in down trend
5 Pull up to 5 we are still in down trend just pulled back
6 Broke previous Lower Lows we still in down trend
7 Broke previous High ( Till 7 it is still down trend because we cant know if this is change in trend there will be some rescues missions till 7 )
after the break of 7 we in up trend
8 consolidatiom maybe bull flag but we still in up trend
9 pull back didnt take previous low we still in up trend
10 Broke previous high we still in up trend
11 same as 10
12 we still in up trend
13 pull back we made our last low still in up trend
14 Hi didnt took previous high so now we might be in conjestion
15 low didnt took previous low we are in conjestion
16 we broke 14 but didnt broke 12 so still in conjestion
17 and 18 and 19 still conjestion
20 broke previous high of 12 so we are in up trend HH taken
21 still up trend new highs
22 pull back we still in up trend
23 Broke lows look for down trend
24 didnt took highs so we in conjection
25 took previous low so we are in down trend ( i know this is not down as we want but in this moment you might find some rescue to do)
26 previous HH so we back to up trend
27 still highs so in up trend

It can be something like that
it is not perfect because there is places where we enter against but in this moment rescue will save us
also a discretionary trading maybe different for everybody
But thats how i see.
There is a news in between and the economics that can influence

EDIT : This is only an example how i see it. And it is 4 hourly . If you try 1 hourly you will find another trends within 4 hours trends
same daily you can see maybe ranging market .
So it is depends on what suitable for you . There always up trends and down trend one biger one miner within this biger
and conjections so this for me not something that writen in stone.
HH and LL may be interpreted as rigidity but it is for one to decide .

And i want to stress it is not what FTI learned it is how i interpreter it for myself.
And i am still trying to learn so please do not take it as is just take it as another student view.
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Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #43,643
  • Oct 19, 2013 3:16pm Oct 19, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting fti
ah, good sleep. now comes good and bad news. mom bought 2 chinooks. No not the helicopter, the dogs they puppy. That the good news. now the bad news. because they less than 4 weeks old, i gonna need spend some time bottle feeding them. so, plus the chi execises and meditation and prayers. i would be very occupied. is not easy manage so many dogs. the pip bull is very upset. so is the 2 seniors because the 2 puppies seems very intelligent and caring personalities. when they grow up i will be using them pull my wheel chair, if i am still alive....
I think it is not bad news
Bottle feeding is not such a hard task you will do it with smile FTI
and the happines and joy it will fill you
i think it is fun
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #43,644
  • Oct 20, 2013 12:37am Oct 20, 2013 12:37am
Quoting Zoran
http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=iFDe5kUUyT0 Seems like another take on it...
people say ron paul work for federal reserve.his role is to represent anti-thesis,people who r against him represent thesis,once these ppl create enuf unrest and crisis,agitation,causing enuf bloodshed,one will see another group comes into play,a real group with synthesis keeping one bonded labour with golden chain like freedom,liberty blah blah....and things will remain the same.
ron paul,steve forbes,rikaard work for the same one eye beast,the real issue is one of usury;[interest on iou] and not debt or principle.bankers more worried about usury than principle,which one will experience when u take mortgage where u return the total interest u owe first few yrs and then principle in the last.
may Gods curse be upon these people who run federal reserve and may burn in hell for all eternity to come.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #43,645
  • Oct 20, 2013 1:33am Oct 20, 2013 1:33am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} the frustration is coming from fti answers not the answer itself but the way . Ok i use extension as entry .....so please.......before to talk , please think....
if ur looking for straight forward answer from fti,like black and white forget about it.oops I feel like fti bodyguard now.according to fti uptrend,ta,fa,or 3 kingdoms all bullshit.[sorry fti for being a bit dramatic] the central point of the whole discussion is 'NOW'and ur MINDSET.
forget about past prices,fundamental blah blah....focus on the present price which is the most important information u got and how u going to react to it.its all about ur feeling and reactions and how you manage the position.
when u look at the price all the three trends ie uptrend,downtrend and side trend are moving simultaneously forward[ just like past,present,and future are happening at the same time] so that what u want to see u will see and u can justify it retrospectively with same fundamental,technical and sentimental analysis.this is what fti call fallacy and one need to be aware of it.may ALLAH /GOD/PARAMATHMA/DAO BLESS Udamn it,i feel like a preacher now,the worst feeling one may experience
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #43,646
  • Oct 20, 2013 2:32am Oct 20, 2013 2:32am
Dear Michael , Phil13 and Drzakir123

Thank's a lot , for your answers and the time you spend to help , i start to understand , i make things a bit complicate , monday i will try to dance with the help of your posts....

wish you a wonderful sunday
  • #43,647
  • Edited 11:04am Oct 20, 2013 6:11am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting Redsunfx
i m not totally convince, trend follower or counter trend trader , why trend follower is working better counter trend i agree when there is falling knife or rocket lauch can be dangerous , but with proper MO and MM you can also protect your book .....
for me, i think this is why trend following is good...

for period with no trend? we can trade trend within no trend.. if fail, we rely on our mm..

then again.. counter-trend works in the extreme scenario.. somebody once said the extreme top and bottom are the most expensive.. so never be rigid

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  • #43,648
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:35am Oct 20, 2013 10:35am
nostalgic

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  • #43,649
  • Oct 20, 2013 2:28pm Oct 20, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} the frustration is coming from fti answers not the answer itself but the way . Ok i use extension as entry point he don t but it works for me . And few people dare to post chart live , when it comes to trading nothing just blalvlabla im 50 trading forex since feb 2005 , scalper eurusd, full time trader since jan 2010 so dont talk about positive or not ......its my only income since almost 4 years....... I just try to understand something else than scalping i try to understand trend .and how to read the dance on the graph.....and dont talk...

hi what about your eur/jpy
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #43,650
  • Oct 20, 2013 2:30pm Oct 20, 2013 2:30pm
Quoting Redsunfx
Dear Michael , Phil13 and Drzakir123 Thank's a lot , for your answers and the time you spend to help , i start to understand , i make things a bit complicate , monday i will try to dance with the help of your posts.... wish you a wonderful sunday
I have to write this.redsunfx,just be very careful with this methodlogy,give urself lot of time and don't rush with big position, otherwise u can easily hurt urself.may I dare suggest start with very very small position till u get the hang of it and then superimpose this experience with if u use the normal position size, that will give u the idea how easy the trade can get out of hand.if possible don't use leverage at all while learning this.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #43,651
  • Oct 20, 2013 2:40pm Oct 20, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} I have to write this.redsunfx,just be very careful with this methodlogy,give urself lot of time and don't rush with big position, otherwise u can easily hurt urself.may I dare suggest start with very very small position till u get the hang of it and then superimpose this experience with if u use the normal position size, that will give u the idea how easy the trade can get out of hand.if possible don't use leverage at all while learning this.
thank's but don't worry , my max leverage is my K *1.2 as a maximum if my trade is not in +++ territory ... i dont need leverage to make money ...
and im not trading yet live with the dance .... im not ready i cant really see the trend ... but working on it
  • #43,652
  • Edited 11:42pm Oct 20, 2013 11:05pm | Edited 11:42pm
Quoting kinky
nostalgic http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=TfMgg9-QiA8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=ShYmv0hQ9AU
nice. Thanks, kingkee

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regards
  • #43,653
  • Oct 21, 2013 1:21am Oct 21, 2013 1:21am
Quoting Zoran
http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=iFDe5kUUyT0 Seems like another take on it...
May I request an expert advice on what this guy is talking about? One thing I noticed is that, he is trying to impart some fear in viewers mind & sell them some gold or jewellery.
A snap from one of his website is attached below.
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  • #43,654
  • Edited 2:19am Oct 21, 2013 1:51am | Edited 2:19am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} May I request an expert advice on what this guy is talking about? One thing I noticed is that, he is trying to impart some fear in viewers mind & sell them some gold or jewellery. A snap from one of his website is attached below. {image}
i not know about selling Gold and silver.
But what he presented is the monetary system of the world.

The monetary system that has evolved from the Gold standard.
He trying explain the machanics of fiat currency system and the dangers and why the system will continue expand and if the monetary system expands beyond the boundaries of productivity, what the implications are.
Is a concise explanation of banking priciples and money multiplier effect and the impact of debt.

Debt basically is a function of business growth. If productivity keeps pace with it, the result is accelerated growth, beyond that is suicidal entreprenuership.

Is easy see the disfuntional possibilities in the practised monetary system and its abuse, but unless someone can create a better functional system, this is what we have for the moment. Same as some smarter animals will be king of the hill and some will be food. Good managers will be pradator, the foolish will be the food chain. Also same as market participants, the good managers thrive, the foolish....

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regards
  • #43,655
  • Edited 2:55am Oct 21, 2013 2:21am | Edited 2:55am
my buddy shared this.you may like.
Boyz to men? this girls to women

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  • #43,656
  • Oct 21, 2013 2:29am Oct 21, 2013 2:29am
Quoting fti
{quote} i not know about selling Gold and silver. But what he presented is the monetary system of the world. The monetary system that has evolved from the Gold standard. He trying explain the mechanics of fiat currency system and the dangers and why the system will continue expand and if the monetary system expands beyond the boundaries of productivity, what the implications are. Is a concise explanation of banking priciples and money multiplier effect and the impact of debt. [color=#ff0000]Debt basically is a function of business growth. If...

Thank You FTI for your comment. that explains a few things..
  • #43,657
  • Oct 21, 2013 5:07am Oct 21, 2013 5:07am
Quoting fti
{quote} nice. Thanks, kingkee http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waOw6R3RjOQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGC7StmWLTg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LG8julMuaY regards
  • #43,658
  • Oct 21, 2013 6:30am Oct 21, 2013 6:30am
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  • #43,659
  • Oct 21, 2013 6:46pm Oct 21, 2013 6:46pm
Hi fti: Just want to say thank you very much for this thread. Thank you very much.

Now a couple of things I try to keep in mind when I am trying to win this game of forex.

Adapt or die. Darwin.

Have the patience of Job. Act with the speed of light.

Thanks again. mdavem.
  • #43,660
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:27pm Oct 22, 2013 5:27pm
Quoting mdavem
Hi fti: Just want to say thank you very much for this thread. Thank you very much. Now a couple of things I try to keep in mind when I am trying to win this game of forex. Adapt or die. Darwin. Have the patience of Job. Act with the speed of light. Thanks again. mdavem.
thank You for kind words.

regards

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