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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #10,481
  • Oct 18, 2013 12:56pm Oct 18, 2013 12:56pm
Hi Friends,


hope all is well and no one got a bloody nose yesterday

Would I have traded yesterday, I certainly would have get a red one

Luckily, I was breathing life in bella Italia, visiting Fierence.


So let us look at the possible EW count(s)

Here is my count I showed a while back:


we have the possibility, that the move up is

a) finished (least probable)

b) 3716-3734 (blue channel) // translates to Murrey Math 3718 - 3733 - 3748

c) extended 3818-3850 (red channel) // translates to Murrey Math 3794 - 3916 (sorry, for more precise some TF's have to Octave jump first)
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  • #10,482
  • Oct 18, 2013 1:01pm Oct 18, 2013 1:01pm
Quoting janpec1000
Reshorted Gold and closed +40 on same entry as before. I am defenetly moving into gold only trading next year, 20 minute chart time for those pips while currencies grasp way too much, at least for me. Plus Gold is the only pair that gives you adrenaline scalping it
Short reminder on rules:


first stating entry, then stating exit in a timely manner


thanks in advance
  • #10,483
  • Oct 18, 2013 1:05pm Oct 18, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting janpec1000
Reshorted Gold and closed +40 on same entry as before. I am defenetly moving into gold only trading next year, 20 minute chart time for those pips while currencies grasp way too much, at least for me. Plus Gold is the only pair that gives you adrenaline scalping it

Gold is a beast

for steady gains in daytrading I would advise other instruments. Gold likes to treat you with lucky punches
  • #10,484
  • Oct 18, 2013 2:55pm Oct 18, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Friends, hope all is well and no one got a bloody nose yesterday Would I have traded yesterday, I certainly would have get a red one Luckily, I was breathing life in bella Italia, visiting Fierence. So let us look at the possible EW count(s) Here is my count I showed a while back: we have the possibility, that the move up is a) finished (least probable) b) 3716-3734 (blue channel) // translates to Murrey Math 3718 - 3733 - 3748 c) extended 3818-3850 (red channel) // translates to Murrey Math 3794 - 3916 (sorry, for more precise some...
Buona sera mio amico in Italia.

One EW question. If the 1.3710 yearly high is breached, does that not invalidate the current wave 2 count?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,485
  • Oct 18, 2013 11:03pm Oct 18, 2013 11:03pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Buona sera mio amico in Italia. One EW question. If the 1.3710 yearly high is breached, does that not invalidate the current wave 2 count?
since the introduction of the euro is a whole abc count. i can't see on Weekly or Monthly one 1-2-3-4-5 count. elliottwave.com is since two years on the downside to 1.20xx and what we see now we are going upward.

My view is forget 1-2-3-4-5 counting on higher timeframes on EURUSD. But i'm not the expert on EW - Fini it's your turn.
  • #10,486
  • Oct 19, 2013 2:49am Oct 19, 2013 2:49am
Hello, friends!
On the market are interesting things and we can learn to "move".
First. The price range has shrunk. To keep the scale of the price in time without change, we have reduced (divided into two) the duration of the cycle. This means that the square of the fourth quarter, we split in two equal square at 32 days.
Second. Now there is a new "surprise" of the market. Price "go" outside the square that we were drawing.
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We must follow the price and move the square. In this respect the rules.
"Rules and Exceptions

  1. Rule 1:
    The lower boundary of the square in time must be an even MML (i.e. 0/8 th’s, 2/8 th’s, 4/8 th’s, 6/8 th’s, or 8/8 th’s). It may be a MMML, a mMMl, or a bMML. Generally, the lower boundary will be a mMML.
  2. ......"

Here is what be obtained. In my opinion.

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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #10,487
  • Oct 19, 2013 3:32am Oct 19, 2013 3:32am
What else can we do?
Let's look at 64-day range.

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A minimum of 3104 is just before 30 days. If the price continue to rise, it will be a minimum for more than 32 days.
If during that time the price break 3794, the price range it will be "normal." We will again make a big square in the fourth quarter. Already in other ranges.
Of course there are several other opportunities. I think already mapped square can cover them all. In the next 32 days. Without a break below 3062. When the range will increase downwards.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #10,488
  • Edited 8:59am Oct 19, 2013 5:46am | Edited 8:59am
Quote
Short reminder on rules:


first stating entry, then stating exit in a timely manner


thanks in advance


Sorry i couldnt do it becouse since i entered and exited in this trade it lasted less than 30 seconds as drop was quick. I follow this rule however in usual market conditions.

Quote
Gold is a beast

Without a doubt.

Quote
for steady gains in daytrading I would advise other instruments. Gold likes to treat you with lucky punches

Lucky punches are usually important levels on gold being destroyed by big order flows or wipes of SLs, and the rest are news events and especially those events tied on dollar. For that one needs to carefully follow all USD things on market to reduce getting hit by surprise. Overall technicalls work on gold just as good as on currencies with exception of one thing which i follow strictly on gold is not to trade pullbacks and against current minor trend, pullbacks are reliable only on fresh supply and demand zones that are covered by strong rejections of previous waves.
Overall trader can find a little scalping trades in quiet range-bound trend quickly for 20 pips, while at least for me personally (as i trade pullbacks mainly on currencies) takes usually 2 to 3 trades on different pairs to gain that much pips, plus opurtunity comes probably only twice a week, while gold gives it pretty much every day. Rarely day goes by where you can say there is nothing on gold to trade, especially for scalper.

If you are scalping gold you certainly cannot be one of those traders that do not even know what FED is and do not follow single news released on market. At least i cannot imagine being profitable without being properly informed on when hammer impacts are happening.

Possible Debt agreement is coming on Monday which could push gold bellow 1300 and turn it bearish again. At the moment technicals are a bit mixed on short term view but i will be looking for shorts in early Monday and try cover them with BE SL.
  • #10,489
  • Oct 19, 2013 9:07am Oct 19, 2013 9:07am
Whats up guys dont sell EURUSD yet it still need to run.
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #10,490
  • Oct 19, 2013 10:58am Oct 19, 2013 10:58am
Quoting godim
Hello, friends! On the market are interesting things and we can learn to "move". First. The price range has shrunk. To keep the scale of the price in time without change, we have reduced (divided into two) the duration of the cycle. This means that the square of the fourth quarter, we split in two equal square at 32 days. Second. Now there is a new "surprise" of the market. Price "go" outside the square that we were drawing. {image} We must follow the price and move the square. In this respect the rules. "Rules and Exceptions Rule 1: The...
Just thinking.....
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,491
  • Oct 19, 2013 12:09pm Oct 19, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Just thinking..... {image}
And thinking some more. So, let's say LC is right and has some more to run. How much more?

That first retracement was 88.6. Could it be? I prefer fibs of last swing but tl's are in play.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,492
  • Oct 19, 2013 12:21pm Oct 19, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Just thinking..... {image}
At first, I thought you where thinking of this till the end of the Year.............
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #10,493
  • Oct 20, 2013 3:14am Oct 20, 2013 3:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Buona sera mio amico in Italia. One EW question. If the 1.3710 yearly high is breached, does that not invalidate the current wave 2 count?
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} since the introduction of the euro is a whole abc count. i can't see on Weekly or Monthly one 1-2-3-4-5 count. elliottwave.com is since two years on the downside to 1.20xx and what we see now we are going upward. My view is forget 1-2-3-4-5 counting on higher timeframes on EURUSD. But i'm not the expert on EW - Fini it's your turn.

Hi PT, hi Schickeria, hi all :-)


hope all of you spent a nice weekend.


Regarding PT:

I think, it was a fault from the beginning, and EWI started this faulty count, to conclude, that the long lasting triangle was finished end of October 2011 at 4247. It would have been a super short Wave E.

Here are some of my analyses I found on my blog:

http://www.singulorum001.blogspot.de...is-08th_8.html

http://www.singulorum001.blogspot.de...ysis-15th.html

http://www.singulorum001.blogspot.de...struments.html


A general reminder of where we are can be found here (nice to see, how things develop):

http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/201...4_archive.html

http://singulorum.blogspot.de/2011/1...ts-update.html



So with the count I presented on Friday, I clearly think, that we are in the triangle, still. Implication is: the 3710 can be taken out without invalidating anything.

Look below for my updated long term EW count.



Regarding Schickerias questions:


Be reminded, that EW is not a crystall ball. In EW we "only" deal with probabilities. "When price does this or that it is most likely to do the following"

Pattern dictates the probabilities. But as anywhere with probabilities, it must not necessarily go the way with highest probability.

Price is thought to be a reflection of social mood. And social mood can turn at every second, important, without need of extrinsic trigger.

So a count, or a model for a count, can be right over month and years, but in the end turns out to be wrong, because social mood took the least probable way.


Regarding the ABC-nature of EU:

waves are fractal. They consist of impulsive moves (5-waves) and corrective moves (3 waves, simple or complex).

So at any given wave degree you can find on lower waves the subdivisions of impulses and corrections. So implication is: there are impulsive waves (as well as corrective waves).


Regarding the ABC-moves (or missing impulses) on higher TF's like weekly or monthly:

well, the switch through the TF's in search for impulses or corrections, especially the switch to higher TF's like weekly or monthly, is a two edged sword.

On the one hand oftentimes picture gets clearer, because higher TF's sort out the "noise" (we think). On the other side of the sword, this filtering may be overdone, filtering away important submoves of the waves.

Oftentimes we see clearly impulsive structures on low TF's like hourly or 15min charts, but on e.g. 4h or daily the move does only appear to be corrective ABC.

The often heard saying "big TF dictate small TF behavior" is, at least in EW terms, utterly wrong. Since we learned, that social mood (aka price) can turn, whenever it likes, the small TF's dictate the higher TF's picture


So in order to count correctly, we can first count on a higher TF (to make work more easy), but definitively have to validate the count on smaller TF.

Elliott himself did only count on daily chart. You surly know the EW guideline, that there can be missing wave 5. I do think, this stems from the fact, that on daily TF the "filter" was to strong, and on lower TF the wave 5 surly was not missing.

If a wave 5 can even not be found on lower TF, I go with the assumption, that it was most likely no impulse but an ABC move.


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EWEURUSDLONGTERM

EWTHEORY
  • #10,494
  • Oct 20, 2013 3:27am Oct 20, 2013 3:27am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Sorry i couldnt do it becouse since i entered and exited in this trade it lasted less than 30 seconds as drop was quick. I follow this rule however in usual market conditions. {quote} Without a doubt. {quote} Lucky punches are usually important levels on gold being destroyed by big order flows or wipes of SLs, and the rest are news events and especially those events tied on dollar. For that one needs to carefully follow all USD things on market to reduce getting hit by surprise. Overall technicalls work on gold just as good as on currencies...

Hi Janpec,

thanks for the answer.

My point mainly is:


even so that Gold may deliver enough or more than enough daily pips, it also delivers more than enough whipsaws.

From my experience, to trade Gold is far more difficult than to trade a currency pair. I would only recommend to trade Gold, when you are super confident in your trading skills and methodology. Out of my sight (but it is just me) Gold can be better traded as swing trades/mid term/long term than to be traded as scalps.

The difficulty and difference to other instruments like stocks and currencies is, that Gold runs on fear, whereas others runs on hope. The main implication is, that as with most commodities most of the time Gold produces very extended wave 5's with very long lasting divergences. That makes it extremely difficult to judge a moves end.

Take care,


Markus
  • #10,495
  • Oct 20, 2013 3:35am Oct 20, 2013 3:35am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Sorry i couldnt do it becouse since i entered and exited in this trade it lasted less than 30 seconds as drop was quick. I follow this rule however in usual market conditions. {quote} Without a doubt. {quote} Lucky punches are usually important levels on gold being destroyed by big order flows or wipes of SLs, and the rest are news events and especially those events tied on dollar. For that one needs to carefully follow all USD things on market to reduce getting hit by surprise. Overall technicalls work on gold just as good as on currencies...
Without looking at fundamentals, the chance for Gold to rise over the next sessions was high, because bearishness sentiment towards Gold was very high. Only 9% Gold bulls were left at the low.

Structure of the move down from last swings high does not look convincingly impulsive, so a B-wave down or an leading diagonal down came to mind. Both implicating, in conjunction with bearish sentiment, a move higher
  • #10,496
  • Oct 20, 2013 5:17am Oct 20, 2013 5:17am
Quote
The main implication is, that as with most commodities most of the time Gold produces very extended wave 5's with very long lasting divergences. That makes it extremely difficult to judge a moves end.

Ye thats why i dont trade swings with Gold but only technical breakouts of levels or trendlines, with looking on lower lows/highs to judge dirrection of move rather than looking at waves.

Quote
Structure of the move down from last swings high does not look convincingly impulsive, so a B-wave down or an leading diagonal down came to mind. Both implicating, in conjunction with bearish sentiment, a move higher

My down view on Gold is for next two days based only on fundamentals from Washington, overall from technical perspective i am neutral, end of monday will tell general dirrection for next whole week probably.
  • #10,497
  • Oct 20, 2013 5:55am Oct 20, 2013 5:55am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} {quote} Hi PT, hi Schickeria, hi all :-) hope all of you spent a nice weekend. Regarding PT: I think, it was a fault from the beginning, and EWI started this faulty count, to conclude, that the long lasting triangle was finished end of October 2011 at 4247. It would have been a super short Wave E. Here are some of my analyses I found on my blog: http://www.singulorum001.blogspot.de...is-08th_8.html http://www.singulorum001.blogspot.de...ysis-15th.html...
Very well laid out explanation. You will be a teacher in your next life.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,498
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:06am Oct 20, 2013 10:06am
EUR/USD: 3 Reasons To Hit 1.40 S/T & 3 Reasons To Sell There - Citi
http://www.efxnews.com/story/21279/e...ell-there-citi
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,499
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:19am Oct 20, 2013 10:19am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} {quote} Hi PT, hi Schickeria, hi all :-) hope all of you spent a nice weekend. Regarding PT: I think, it was a fault from the beginning, and EWI started this faulty count, to conclude, that the long lasting triangle was finished end of October 2011 at 4247. It would have been a super short Wave E. Here are some of my analyses I found on my blog: http://www.singulorum001.blogspot.de...is-08th_8.html http://www.singulorum001.blogspot.de...ysis-15th.html...
So what do you think about this count and alternates?
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Source >>>
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,500
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:32am Oct 20, 2013 10:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} So what do you think about this count and alternates? {image} Source >>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RV7rDvkesUY
This is my projection (red-lines), though I'm not really sure about this..
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