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How To Really Improve Your News Trading

  • #21
  • Oct 20, 2013 9:02am Oct 20, 2013 9:02am
Sorry, but I didn't contribute to this thread to read why we should not trade the news. I'm out of here.
Tellboy
  • #22
  • Oct 20, 2013 12:06pm Oct 20, 2013 12:06pm
Point made - No successful news traders exist - Well worth avoiding this thread - LOL - I notce the link to Henry gives free news trades alerts - Hilarious
  • #23
  • Oct 20, 2013 12:57pm Oct 20, 2013 12:57pm
Quoting tellboy
I agree. It is a silly challenge. However, I do believe that if a news trader is successful then his/her trades could be shared with those of us who would learn from them. I am testing Henry Liu's news trading EA alongside a manual pre-news sentiment strategy, and I have set up a thread that offers such an invitation. I am a newbie and still learning, so guidance would be appreciated.
Yes, if successfully trading news events then those trades could be shared either that the time (or shortly afterwards) and trade success/profit/loss could be tracked through a trade explorer, MyFxBook or some such. Since, I assume since I am not a news trader, that trades last only a few minutes on news events in order to catch a spike in price or a portion of a spike, it is simply not practical to say "I am now going to take a long position at 1.3650, expect slippage of 14 pips, have a spread of 17 pips (since slippage and spread are continuous variables during volatile trading times such as news releases), take profit at X level and my reason is because the release came out 27.5% above the consensus analyst projections and history shows...

Again, after the fact explanations would suit me fine with real time trade results. Finding such a person? That is a different ballgame.
  • #24
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:42pm Oct 20, 2013 6:42pm
Quoting wilczek
Point made - No successful news traders exist -
So for you if you can't do, nobody can do ... Right ?

FYI, there are few private groups living exclusively from news trading since years ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #25
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:47pm Oct 20, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting wilczek
{quote} LOL Challenge - Ask a news trader to post their trades live before the event for a year - you will not find one willing to do so - not one - I am just saying that there are no long term profitable news traders - perhaps a few - ever read about a news trader in market wizards ?
You can only trade as the news hits the wire.

You can not trade before the news.

There are groups that have equipment set in place to get the strength of the direction and place short term trades, ( seconds) and make plenty of money off of them......
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #26
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:08pm Oct 20, 2013 7:08pm
Quoting wilczek
{quote} LOL Challenge - Ask a news trader to post their trades live before the event for a year - you will not find one willing to do so - not one - I am just saying that there are no long term profitable news traders - perhaps a few - ever read about a news trader in market wizards ?
Until such time as you identify all those people who trade news events and publish their stats, you perhaps should refrain from bashing them.

Fact is that the markets are shaped by the macroeconomic fundamentals. News events have knee-jerk reactions to price, but the accumulative factors drive trends. Trading the news is not just about taking a gamble that the news will come out in your favour. It's more about the trader understanding the underlying data and how markets react to it.

The general rule of thumb is that if a currency pair is technically bullish and the data comes out negative, you wait for the reaction to diminish and then you fade the move. If the data is supportive of the technical bias, preferably you would have already had a position in place, but if not, you wait for a pullback and hop on the train. It's not that hard once you have a clear understanding of technicals, fundamentals and market sentiment all packaged in one. Obviously a newbie would have a hard time with this unless he/she already had an education in economics and/or financial market mechanics.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #27
  • Edited 8:15pm Oct 20, 2013 8:03pm | Edited 8:15pm
Any suggestions where newbies such as myself can start to educate themselves on how to interpret and apply market fundamentals (macroeconomics?) ? I believe this could improve my trading overall, when coupled with TA.

Also, what macroeconomic fundamentals are powerful enough to determine/set currency pair trends? interest rates, ect ? Or perhaps interpretation of economic policies ( Economic stimulus, tapering, ect ) ?


Lastly, would trading based on these macroeconomic fundamentals be applicable for short term ( 1-14 days ) trading, or is it more-so for larger time frames ( 10 + weeks )? I regularly hear that anything short-medium term should use pure TA, where as long term should also take macroeconomic fundamentals into account.
  • #28
  • Oct 21, 2013 10:58am Oct 21, 2013 10:58am
Well, quite succesful is fade news trading... hw abt this?
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #29
  • Oct 21, 2013 12:34pm Oct 21, 2013 12:34pm
Quoting wilczek
a few private clubs - a few million traders - ok - sorry - perhaps 1 in a million can be consistently profitable trading news
Couldn't this be said about any method of trading? The failing traders tend to be the loudest in my opinion, regardless of method. In contrast the successful ones are too busy winning and they have nothing really to gain by elevating their visibility or trying to prove something to a crowd of anonymous wannabees
  • #30
  • Oct 21, 2013 4:21pm Oct 21, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting virensfx
{quote} Couldn't this be said about any method of trading? The failing traders tend to be the loudest in my opinion, regardless of method. In contrast the successful ones are too busy winning and they have nothing really to gain by elevating their visibility or trying to prove something to a crowd of anonymous wannabees
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31
  • Nov 18, 2013 11:13am Nov 18, 2013 11:13am
Here's my strategy guys:

15mins before a release, I draw a 20 pip box and place it in the middle of the 15 min or 5min candle
I then start a OCO (one cancels the other) order and enter the long and short figures from the highs and lows of the box, so I have got a long order 10 pips above and a short 10 pips below the current price.
If the candle moves, I move the box and re-enter the figures.
30 seconds before the release, I start the OCO.
If the release causes little movement, I close the orders, turn my PC off and wait for the next release.
I am looking to catch the initial spike (aren't we all). If I get one, I immediately move my stop to breakeven.
I then wait for 20 pips and then move the stop 10 pips behind each move until I'm stopped out.
Many times, the market doesn't move and I end up with nothing, but when it does, I nearly always get 2:1 risk/reward and have only lost 10 pips once from about 20 trades.
I spread my wins across a number of brokers to avoid any undue attention.
I also keep a detailed log about which pairs had the most movement, so I can refer back when the same release comes out.

I have tried hundreds of strategies and indicators, this has brought me the most success out of all of them.

Good luck!

Moonie.
  • #32
  • Nov 18, 2013 12:48pm Nov 18, 2013 12:48pm
What about Tony112? This guy trades news exclusively, check his thread called Central Banks& Big Players.
  • #33
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:01pm Nov 18, 2013 2:01pm
Quoting wilczek
Point made - No successful news traders exist - Well worth avoiding this thread - LOL - I notce the link to Henry gives free news trades alerts - Hilarious
We trust nobody,
I doubt everything except one, own ignorance...
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #34
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:17pm Nov 18, 2013 3:17pm
Nice one Lukas,

Excellent thread. Not sure about his method of holding on for 100/200 pips, not very likely in today's low volatility.

I look forward to contributing.


Quoting Lukaszmiami
What about Tony112? This guy trades news exclusively, check his thread called Central Banks& Big Players.
  • #35
  • Last Post: Nov 18, 2013 4:14pm Nov 18, 2013 4:14pm
Often it is worth getting into a position a few days prior to the news event, especially if you think that traders will be disappointed by an expected release. This especially works well if you know a lot of players are positioned on the wrong side and are heavily long or short. Think about it, if you're a large fund and you've sold a pair a few days/weeks prior to an interest rate decision when you know there are a lot of longs and then the central bank comes out and cuts rates, where will you buy back? You will buy back into those sellers that are desperate to get into a short position after such a surprising decision. It's important to be aware that these players are reversing or exiting their position on the news they are actually looking for.
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