Disliked{quote} why am i awake at unearthly hours? oh short nap only. oh thats easy, i thought you had difficult question. ny closing, thats the best time determine high and low of the day. after 2 hours twilight zone , welligton starts new day. regardsIgnored
Technical Analysis Fallacy
sorry to bother you again FTI, sir., I've a question, we have 3 trading sessions, Tokyo, London & NY, whats your expert opinion
about average PIP movement of the major pairs during each trading session.
regards,
Ashraf
about average PIP movement of the major pairs during each trading session.
regards,
Ashraf
- #43,583
- Oct 18, 2013 1:02am Oct 18, 2013 1:02am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
{quote} thank you Sir, can we know before NY close. whats twilight zone??
you seem know very little about your business.twinlight zone is the period between when ny closes and wellington open.
during that time , only the fishes living inside the pacific ocean is making prices in forex.
regards
- #43,584
- Edited 1:17am Oct 18, 2013 1:05am | Edited 1:17am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
sorry to bother you again FTI, sir., I've a question, we have 3 trading sessions, Tokyo, London & NY, whats your expert opinion about average PIP movement of the major pairs during each trading session.
Why do you ask me these kind abstract questions.
There is no expertise in being rigid.
if one knows what the average ranges then one can buy at lows and sell at highs by the book.
expert opinion is there is no such things as you asked. Some sessions are volitile some are flat. It depends on whats driving her.
regards
- #43,585
- Edited 2:23am Oct 18, 2013 1:32am | Edited 2:23am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
there is lots chatter in market about this report.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/...up-for-months/
i beg differ from the opinion.
I am opinioned that the data is true reflection of the state of the us economies.
The screws are very tight.
although the charts will look very skewed, it is accurate.
many may like think the president is resposible for the skewness.
but really is systemic failure plus much wildcard events.
guess what caused it. Good world class monetary economics?
Maybe is just politics unable keep up with the world class economics.
but surely i wouldn't dare argue with a professor of economic studies.
But i can say that i didn't started a project that i couldn't finish within my watch.
Thank God for that.
From begining to here, i saw it coming, it came.
I thought maybe there might be some magic in it that i may not be so clever to see.
not really. The fiasco speaks for itself. No?
regards
my be if they had followed Japan's housing bubble bursting model, amortised the overpricing(debt) over time and a few generations than to expand the Money supply all out of proportions at close to no interest rates.
may had been better. but that now seeing from hindsight.
went same way as freddie Mac and ginnie mye, insolvancy.
I still wondering if have cause and credibility lend em funds for 30years. 5 years is out of the question.
Balls cracked, dare not.
for 30 years, maybe can hope praying this the turning point.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/...up-for-months/
i beg differ from the opinion.
I am opinioned that the data is true reflection of the state of the us economies.
The screws are very tight.
although the charts will look very skewed, it is accurate.
many may like think the president is resposible for the skewness.
but really is systemic failure plus much wildcard events.
guess what caused it. Good world class monetary economics?
Maybe is just politics unable keep up with the world class economics.
but surely i wouldn't dare argue with a professor of economic studies.
But i can say that i didn't started a project that i couldn't finish within my watch.
Thank God for that.
From begining to here, i saw it coming, it came.
I thought maybe there might be some magic in it that i may not be so clever to see.
not really.
The fiasco speaks for itself. No?regards
my be if they had followed Japan's housing bubble bursting model, amortised the overpricing(debt) over time and a few generations than to expand the Money supply all out of proportions at close to no interest rates.
may had been better. but that now seeing from hindsight.
went same way as freddie Mac and ginnie mye, insolvancy.
I still wondering if have cause and credibility lend em funds for 30years. 5 years is out of the question.
Balls cracked, dare not.
for 30 years, maybe can hope praying this the turning point.
- #43,587
- Edited 2:52am Oct 18, 2013 2:41am | Edited 2:52am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
FTI when i look at the open position from Oanda , i can see on EURUSD a lot of retail traders are on the short side . from your experience , why retail traders often look at countertrend strategy , when basically pro are often trend followers ... why retail don't explore more on trend following strategy ? is it more difficult to trade with the trend ? what is the reason behind such behaviour ? http://fxtrade.oanda.com/lang/fr/ana...osition-ratios waiting to know your point of view about this .... Regards
you asking me why retail what?i am sorry but retail does what they like to do.
Its their money, its their call.
I can only manage my own.
Now i have nothing.
I no balls to gamble.
Just waiting for carcus fall then pick them up fill my buckets an go home.
regards
Oh reason? mindset. They trained by the master trainers donate?
i am not complaining, they want give we take lor.
For now i cannot see anything yet. Both sides falling, my buckets not know whih safe to scoop yet.
For now market makers champion, i wait. no way i can out scalp market makers.
For now , Oktoberfest time.
pass the bier and sillycons please.
- #43,588
- Oct 18, 2013 2:54am Oct 18, 2013 2:54am
{quote}
- #43,591
- Oct 18, 2013 3:13am Oct 18, 2013 3:13am
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,006 Posts
I made some money in that 30 pip move up in cable but I didn't like the feel of it. 30 pips in 45 minutes feels like a slow move and I was aware I was maybe pressing a little too hard to get out with a profit while I could. Didn't like the look of the other 3 majors at the same time that cable was stalling at 6180-87 so bailed and squared out for the day.
It's Friday and I've had an excellent week so I think I'll be lazy and start my weekend here.
EDIT: And there goes cable as I type - always the way! Still can't tell my walled cities from coiling springs.
It's Friday and I've had an excellent week so I think I'll be lazy and start my weekend here.
EDIT: And there goes cable as I type - always the way! Still can't tell my walled cities from coiling springs.
- #43,592
- Oct 18, 2013 3:18am Oct 18, 2013 3:18am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
I made some money in that 30 pip move up in cable but I didn't like the feel of it. 30 pips in 45 minutes feels like a slow move and I was aware I was maybe pressing a little too hard to get out with a profit while I could. Didn't like the look of the other 3 majors at the same time that cable was stalling at 6180-87 so bailed and squared out for the day. It's Friday and I've had an excellent week so I think I'll be lazy and start my weekend here.
ya , is always grenner where one is not.and mostly always bigger too.
have a nice weekend.
regards
- #43,593
- Oct 18, 2013 3:27am Oct 18, 2013 3:27am
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,006 Posts
{quote}
Ah well. I'd rather miss a move than be trapped in a bad position at this time of the week...and like you once said, the market is always there so no need to worry about not being involved in every single move that happens (plus it's already retraced and I would probably have got caught being greedy and hoping for a big push through 62). Also, it's good to be reminded that I still don't have a clue what's going to happen next!
- #43,594
- Oct 18, 2013 3:32am Oct 18, 2013 3:32am
Hi Guys
How is everybody doing ?
For me i am Waiting for 1.3710 level to see sitting ducks maybe
LEts see what will happen on this level.
Dont forget it is friday light volume - small sizes
on 5 minute looks like M tops
All yesterdays high taken out ? Ducks ? Accumulation ? daily up trend ? so many questions
Fighting plan must think of every direction .
How is everybody doing ?
For me i am Waiting for 1.3710 level to see sitting ducks maybe
LEts see what will happen on this level.
Dont forget it is friday light volume - small sizes
on 5 minute looks like M tops
All yesterdays high taken out ? Ducks ? Accumulation ? daily up trend ? so many questions
Fighting plan must think of every direction .
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
- #43,595
- Oct 18, 2013 3:44am Oct 18, 2013 3:44am
I don't drink beer any longer either.
Hi Ukmanthailan
Good for you that you recovered all losses. It is a good sign i think that you can refocus after a loss.
It happened to me also few times. The problem how we can make from it a lesson in order that it would not happen again
and if it is happen on a smaller scale pull the plug or bite the bullet before coming to such two figure loss.
Did you do any checking of this losses and made a conclusion what makes you to behave like this ?
How can we solve serious ego problems
i know be nimble and humble and MM and money preservation but when it all comes down to "you and the market" this the time when ego
crawls in to trading.
Maybe it mean experience it come with the time
FTI - maybe on a theoretical level you have some insight in such times how to cope with them ?
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
- #43,596
- Oct 18, 2013 3:57am Oct 18, 2013 3:57am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
{quote} Hi Ukmanthailan Good for you that you recovered all losses. It is a good sign i think that you can refocus after a loss. It happened to me also few times. The problem how we can make from it a lesson in order that it would not happen again and if it is happen on a smaller scale pull the plug or bite the bullet before coming to such two figure loss. Did you do any checking of this losses and made a conclusion what makes you to behave like this ? How can we solve serious ego problems i know be nimble and humble and MM and money preservation...
michael.all i can say is practise , experience and managing.
for me is like marraige.
sometime she cuddle with you and keep giving you pips. those happy times not much managing required.
but when she starts picking fight with you. you need set limits and strategies.
sometimes is better to walk out that it not explodes in your face.
cool thinking mind , focus where you're at and at which level tolerance is being tested.
is different one from another.
so one need find those benchmarks by self.
get to know self and one will be victorious 1 mio battles.
regards
- #43,597
- Oct 18, 2013 4:01am Oct 18, 2013 4:01am
{quote}
I think that what you said is very common sense and could be understand from this thread.
I think the majority of people in here continuously looking for an edge but it is all already in here
Just like you said " practise , experience and managing"
Understood
Now to continue carry out what understood
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
- #43,599
- Oct 18, 2013 4:15am Oct 18, 2013 4:15am
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,006 Posts
{quote} Hi Ukmanthailan Good for you that you recovered all losses. It is a good sign i think that you can refocus after a loss. It happened to me also few times. The problem how we can make from it a lesson in order that it would not happen again and if it is happen on a smaller scale pull the plug or bite the bullet before coming to such two figure loss. Did you do any checking of this losses and made a conclusion what makes you to behave like this ? How can we solve serious ego problems i know be nimble and humble and MM and money preservation...
1. It usually happens in ranging markets / periods of congestion and I find that my position size has grown beyond reasonable limits, almost without me knowing it.
2. It also often involves flipping my position multiple times - something else that fti warned against. Never flip more than twice is excellent advice. You may flip once because you believe that you have misread the market sentiment on that day and you may flip a second time when you realise that you were right in the first place. However, if you find yourself changing direction for a third time then it is obvious (at least for me it is) that you are confused and should retreat before sustaining heavy losses.
3. Anger. Closing a position in a loss is not something I like doing and I used to react by immediately opening a position in the other direction. However, by the time I had closed the original position at a loss, you can imagine that price had been moving against me for some time already so when I changed direction I would often get caught in a retrace and lose even more.
Fti's advice to make sure you know what your MO is before flipping a position is more excellent advice. You need to know what you are trying to achieve and how much you are willing / able to risk and what you will do if your new position starts to go into the red. If you don't strategise before flipping then you are more than likely doing it out of anger or hurt pride.
-------
The last 2 1/2 hours' price movement in cable is a good example of when I might have got myself into trouble previously. If I was already in a loss because I had gone short before that 30 pip move up, I might have got angry and opened a large long position to try and make the loss back immediately. The move up to 95 may have encouraged me to pile on more and then when it retraced I might have doubted myself, flipped and gone short again, with an even bigger position, only to watch it go up again.
The end result is that you are left with 20% loss and wondering how on earth you managed to do it when the price has moved no more than 14 pips in 2 1/2 hours.
Sorry for the lengthy answer...