Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 164 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,261
  • Oct 17, 2013 7:14am Oct 17, 2013 7:14am
Quoting GregT
{quote} Hi Adriann - where is your weekly curve? How far up the curve is this price? I have similar H4 zones marked and have price sitting at about 75% up the curve. I feel that price is only just entering the top 25% of the curve, so I would be waiting to trade short from higher up the curve possibly around your #1 DBD. I will be interested to hear others comment whether my approach is lower probability or not (ar any other observations others may care to share) Good on you for bringing more to this forum...
Weekly curve is fine i guess also Alfonzo mention about entering short little bit higher around 1.62 in earler posts or webinar
but price never reach it so maybe now is right situation. will seee
  • #3,262
  • Oct 17, 2013 7:52am Oct 17, 2013 7:52am
Hi all,

I'm very new to this thread. I've a question to ask in regards to supply & demand on GbpUsd

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GbpUsd has made a new base (RBD) at point 'A' on H1 time frame with strong imbalance
Have 2 questions to ask - 1) Is the base created at point 'A' considered Original & Fresh?
2) I entered a sell limit order at the proximal level of 'A' but was stop out. Did I enter the trade wrongly?

Hope to seek pointers from any experience SD traders


Cheers
  • #3,263
  • Oct 17, 2013 10:31am Oct 17, 2013 10:31am
HI GAO,

You have painted the level well
It is not a fresh level in 4h
Point1----But Odd enhancer How much time has taken at there scores out less than 1. Beacuse there are lots of candles.
Point 2---Trend is Up in Daily & last drop from this level has not taken out demand from bottom.
Point 3- In 4 hour this level is almost been tested, so the no. of time price visited has scored out less.
Point 4- If any level does not take out demand than this is not a valid level.
Point 5- Even if you go by 1 hour, we have broken the trend line towards downside.

As per Alfonso's Rule We can take SET & FORGET trades only at Fresh & Original Levels.

Hope this will clear your doubts.
  • #3,264
  • Oct 17, 2013 11:42am Oct 17, 2013 11:42am
Quoting esanjayplaye
HI GAO, You have painted the level well It is not a fresh level in 4h Point1----But Odd enhancer How much time has taken at there scores out less than 1. Beacuse there are lots of candles. Point 2---Trend is Up in Daily & last drop from this level has not taken out demand from bottom. Point 3- In 4 hour this level is almost been tested, so the no. of time price visited has scored out less. Point 4- If any level does not take out demand than this is not a valid level. Point 5- Even if you go by 1 hour, we have broken the trend line towards downside....
Thank you so much for your pointers!
will be studying my mistakes
Thank you again

God bless
  • #3,265
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:13pm Oct 17, 2013 2:13pm
I also wonder,
Can we take Set&Forget SELL if I am on a retested curve on the Higher timeframe, but on the Lower timeframe I see inside the retested area(the curve) a fresh and original SELL zone?
  • #3,266
  • Oct 17, 2013 9:42pm Oct 17, 2013 9:42pm
Dear alfonso,

Is it the "sell" word is correct in the below sentence which is in first page?

  1. If price is at a higher timeframe supply (D1, WK or Monthly), don't go long. Wait patiently for a short setup, either set & forget at an original and fresh supply level on H1/H4, OR wait for a brand new level of supply to be formed and sell the pullback. Opposite for higher timeframe demand.

  • #3,267
  • Oct 17, 2013 10:38pm Oct 17, 2013 10:38pm
Quoting vijay14
Dear alfonso, Is it the "sell" word is correct in the below sentence which is in first page? If price is at a higher timeframe supply (D1, WK or Monthly), don't go long. Wait patiently for a short setup, either set & forget at an original and fresh supply level on H1/H4, OR wait for a brand new level of supply to be formed and sell the pullback. Opposite for higher timeframe demand.
Yes,it's correct. When we are at HTF supply we should sell at fresh level of supply on our entry timeframe.
  • #3,268
  • Oct 17, 2013 11:59pm Oct 17, 2013 11:59pm
Quoting Irad
I also wonder, Can we take Set&Forget SELL if I am on a retested curve on the Higher timeframe, but on the Lower timeframe I see inside the retested area(the curve) a fresh and original SELL zone?
Hi Irad,

  1. If the HTF zone has already been tested more than once, set & forget is not higher odds
  2. If the HTF zone has been tested ONLY ONCE and that zone is with an even HTF's bigger picture, then it could be good to try it. For example, the Monthly bigger picture is down, the D1 TF has been tested only once and you see a nice entry TF fresh and untested supply area. That zone goes with the bigger picture on the Monthly, it could have possibilties. It would even be better IF the D1 zone is not tested of course
  3. Remember that first pullbacks have ALWAYS the highest probabilities of working out, do not obsess on taking 2nd and 3rd pullbacks because your % success ratio will be much lower

Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,269
  • Oct 18, 2013 12:51am Oct 18, 2013 12:51am
Need to seek guidance on 2 questions which I don't understand

If a 'new' SD has been formed but was formed within a SD zone of a previous level on the same timeframe, does this 'new' SD zone still consider a valid SD zone?

I understand the former SD zone has been considered tested. But how do we consider the 'new' zone? Is it a valid fresh SD zone if the 'new' SD zone has yet been tested?
  • #3,270
  • Edited 2:33pm Oct 18, 2013 9:17am | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting Gao
Need to seek guidance on 2 questions which I don't understand If a 'new' SD has been formed but was formed within a SD zone of a previous level on the same timeframe, does this 'new' SD zone still consider a valid SD zone? I understand the former SD zone has been considered tested. But how do we consider the 'new' zone? Is it a valid fresh SD zone if the 'new' SD zone has yet been tested?
That new zone would be valid IF you are trading with the trend. First post describes it in detail Gao. Nested level, level on top of each other are great if we're in a trend... For example a demand level is formed, price rallied, returns to the level and creates a new demand level on top of it and makes a higher high. That new demand level is valid because it made a higher high and goes with that TF's uptrend, else it WON'T be valid for a long.

Always check if you still have room to the opposing HTF SD area before taking any of these levels

Hope that solves your doubt!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,271
  • Oct 18, 2013 11:25am Oct 18, 2013 11:25am
Thank you very much Alfonso for the clarification
my apology, will bear in mind to post... hee!

thanks again!
  • #3,272
  • Oct 18, 2013 2:39pm Oct 18, 2013 2:39pm
Got triggered yesterday on a H4 demand zone on Russel 2000 CFD index. Russel is making all time highs, we don't have any supply above. New levels of demand are good to keep on going long.

We made a higher high and remove HTF supply, that gave me the signal to go long at any good level of demand.

Below you will see the progress of this trade since I was initially triggered.
Hope the whole rationale makes sense. I believe a SD trade can't be clearer than this live example on the Russel CFD index.

I am trailing my entry with technical stops, moving my SL underneath new levels of demand.
There is a brand new H4 CP demand level which could be a valid entry for a long if price pulls back!
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,273
  • Oct 19, 2013 8:53am Oct 19, 2013 8:53am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} That new zone would be valid IF you are trading with the trend. First post describes it in detail Gao. Nested level, level on top of each other are great if we're in a trend... For example a demand level is formed, price rallied, returns to the level and creates a new demand level on top of it and makes a higher high. That new demand level is valid because it made a higher high and goes with that TF's uptrend, else it WON'T be valid for a long. Always check if you still have room to the opposing HTF SD area before taking any of these levels...
Hi,
I was curious about the answer for that question also,
if a big TF supply has been tested, what happened to the rest of the zone of the supply that haven't been tested?

anyway I've just watched Sam Seiden talking about this
he said that if you reached a supply big supply level that been tested once but only let say 1/4 of the area
so the other 3/4 is still fresh and can be used

watch him talking about that(from 18:20 to 18:55)
http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...e-4557a1a35e5e

I also encounter this situation yesterday on EURUSD 1D/1H Check it out:
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  • #3,274
  • Oct 19, 2013 10:06am Oct 19, 2013 10:06am
Quoting Irad
{quote} I've just watched Sam Seiden talking about this he said that if you reached a supply big supply level that been tested once but only let say 1/4 of the area so the other 3/4 is still fresh and can be used watch him talking about that(from 18:20 to 18:55) http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...e-4557a1a35e5e I also encounter this situation yesterday on EURUSD 1D/1H Check it out: {image}
thanks for link : )
  • #3,275
  • Oct 19, 2013 5:24pm Oct 19, 2013 5:24pm
Quoting panoramia
Hello again! You have not told us what indicator you are referring to. In the zip the auto supply/demand indicator is not attached so it's impossible that your charts can display the levels unless you draw them manually (the rectangle reader indicator will extend it). Download the attached indicator, it's the auto SD indicator that I use, I modified it a bit to display price labels in both distal and proximal lines as well as having the possibility of setting the labels colors, white by default. Alfonso {quote} {file}
So, do you not manually put in your Supply/demand levels? You just use the indicator and then get rid of the levels that doesn't look like a good trade and trade the ones that look good?
  • #3,276
  • Oct 20, 2013 3:06am Oct 20, 2013 3:06am
Quoting Irad
{quote} Hi, I was curious about the answer for that question also, if a big TF supply has been tested, what happened to the rest of the zone of the supply that haven't been tested? anyway I've just watched Sam Seiden talking about this he said that if you reached a supply big supply level that been tested once but only let say 1/4 of the area so the other 3/4 is still fresh and can be used watch him talking about that(from 18:20 to 18:55) http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...e-4557a1a35e5e I...
Hello Irad!

You have to have rules, rules are on Post #1. You have heard that statement by Sam Seiden in that video. There are other videos where he says he won't care about the number of retracements a level has, he will take all retracements if price does not penetrate level more than 25% and rallies from it.

So, what can you do? You have contradictions. RULES. You need to have RULES, your own rules that have been tested over time.

On Post #1 of this thread you have those rules, but DON'T BELIEVE what I write or say, or what anybody else says. Test any rules yourself over a period of time, not some days or weeks, for months. Then come back to me and tell me your experience

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,277
  • Oct 20, 2013 3:11am Oct 20, 2013 3:11am
Quoting Masudhossain
{quote} So, do you not manually put in your Supply/demand levels? You just use the indicator and then get rid of the levels that doesn't look like a good trade and trade the ones that look good?
I draw my levels manually always, I sometimes switch to the auto indicator to see what it has to tell me. I use automatic ones with certain modifications for my EA. I assume some more losses by using the auto mode but it's better than being in front of the computer all the time drawing them

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,278
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:58am Oct 20, 2013 6:58am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello Irad! You have to have rules, rules are on Post #1. You have heard that statement by Sam Seiden in that video. There are other videos where he says he won't care about the number of retracements a level has, he will take all retracements if price does not penetrate level more than 25% and rallies from it. So, what can you do? You have contradictions. RULES. You need to have RULES, your own rules that have been tested over time. On Post #1 of this thread you have those rules, but DON'T BELIEVE what I write or say, or what anybody else...
so basically what you are saying is that IF my HTF extreme supply level has been tested twice, THEN look for a higher extreme supply level because we don't know if trend is about to change direciton or keep direction - and in the meantime i should switch pairs because that pair is in "no mans land" untill supply level has been broken or demand level has been broken.
  • #3,279
  • Edited 7:50am Oct 20, 2013 7:36am | Edited 7:50am
Anyone following the EURCAD? I would be interested in comparing my Weekly Big Picture markup below to anyone else's

Questions I would appreciate feedback on:
1) Do you think I missed any Weekly zones?
2) Have I marked the zone boundaries appropriately?
3) Is the Demand Zone "in control", a valid zone I should be planning to trade? (or should it be the lower DZ at 1.2188)
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I am Swing Trading using:
Weekly - Big Picture TF
Daily - trend lines
H4 - execution TF.
  • #3,280
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:54am Oct 20, 2013 7:54am
Quoting GregT
Anyone following the EURCAD? I would be interested in comparing my Weekly Big Picture markup below to anyone else's Questions I would appreciate feedback on: 1) Do you think I missed any Weekly zones? 2) Have I marked the zone boundaries appropriately? 3) .
I have similar zones.
i guess more importat is swing from 1.594 then higher. this show more supply but for me.
also i think this could be some months to get price to this level.
another pairs can get sooner entries.
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