Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 161 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,201
  • Edited 2:27am Oct 14, 2013 2:16am | Edited 2:27am
I've uploaded last Friday's webinar on timeframe combinations.

I believe this is my best webinar so far, it's also a very important one because it requires that you make a decision now and decide which type of trader you are, a swing, intraday or position trader.

Watch this video as many times as you can, this is how I believe, it's just my opinion, how supply and demand works. It's key that you do not switch timeframe combos during the same session. Stick to the same timeframe combo always and master it until you create a habit and become proficient and confidence with it.

The webinar covered:

  1. What type of timeframe combinations you can choose from and what type of trader you can choose from
  2. What to use the curve timeframe (bigger picture) for and what to you the entry timframe for (drawing your levels and managing your trades)
  3. When to go counter-trend (location trade), when to go with the trend (momentum trades) and when to use both (momentum + location)
  4. When to use each of the 3 types of trades
  5. How to draw trendlines to assess direction and filter out levels above or below it

Inserted Video


Have a great Monday and thanks for your support!
Alfonso

NOTE: the next webinars will only be available to those who attended, and those from whom I have their emails. They will no longer be shared publicly. Only to those that ever contacted me or filled this form out: http://eepurl.com/F_b7v
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,202
  • Oct 14, 2013 3:01am Oct 14, 2013 3:01am
USDJPY
WEEKLY

http://i.imgur.com/MuQAkBn.png?1
http://i.imgur.com/MuQAkBn.png?1

Daily

http://prntscr.com/1x7ybr
http://prntscr.com/1x7ybr

H4
http://prntscr.com/1x7zj0
http://prntscr.com/1x7zj0
  • #3,203
  • Oct 14, 2013 5:18am Oct 14, 2013 5:18am
Hi alphonso,
i attach the weekly gbp chart and hope you or anyone can clarify some uncertainity.

1.is supply at point A not valid because it failed to take out the opposing demand level at C

2.B is valid supply (not fresh because reacting from CP) as it took out D- but failed to hold

3.Point D is not valid demand as it failed to take out CP level?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 24 KB
  • #3,204
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:51am Oct 14, 2013 6:51am
Quoting Gxp1
Hi alphonso, i attach the weekly gbp chart and hope you or anyone can clarify some uncertainity
Hello there!
Take a look at my attachment, you will see it better on the notes I made on your GBPUSD.

Quote
1.is supply at point A not valid because it failed to take out the opposing demand level at C
Yes, it's not valid because of that reason

Quote
2.B is valid supply (not fresh because reacting from CP) as it took out D- but failed to hold
Yes, it was non fresh and didn't take out demand, maybe by very few pips, a fakey

Quote
3.Point D is not valid demand as it failed to take out CP level?
Exactly

Hope it makes sense to you! Just following the rules! It's a game's number, some will still work but if you apply strict rules that work over time, you will be on the right same more times than not!

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 607 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,205
  • Oct 14, 2013 7:31am Oct 14, 2013 7:31am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello there! Take a look at my attachment, you will see it better on the notes I made on your GBPUSD. {quote} Yes, it's not valid because of that reason {quote} Yes, it was non fresh and didn't take out demand, maybe by very few pips, a fakey {quote} Exactly Hope it makes sense to you! Just following the rules! It's a game's number, some will still work but if you apply strict rules that work over time, you will be on the right same more times than not! Alfonso {image}

  • #3,206
  • Oct 14, 2013 7:54am Oct 14, 2013 7:54am
Thanks to all that answer questions on the thread . Thank you Alonso
  • #3,207
  • Oct 14, 2013 8:18am Oct 14, 2013 8:18am
Hi Alfonso,

I have been following your thread for quite some time now. It is really helpful to me with all the information and guidance that you provided. So I will like to say a big thank you to you first!

Secondly, in your latest webinar u mentioned that for your supply/demand curve calculation, you only use Drop Base Rally and Rally Base Drop? That is to say for the spreadsheet that you provided, you will not key in the prices of continuation pattern levels? I am using D1/H4 as my analysis and entering at H1 time frame.
Hope you can confirm this.


Cheers.
  • #3,208
  • Oct 14, 2013 9:10am Oct 14, 2013 9:10am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello there! Take a look at my attachment, you will see it better on the notes I made on your GBPUSD. {quote} Yes, it's not valid because of that reason {quote} Yes, it was non fresh and didn't take out demand, maybe by very few pips, a fakey {quote} Exactly Hope it makes sense to you! Just following the rules! It's a game's number, some will still work but if you apply strict rules that work over time, you will be on the right same more times than not! Alfonso {image}
Hi there Alfonso,I have a question about point E. When the first red candle came back to that area as you can see on the chart,can we take that trade even though that new area didn't take out any supply at that moment or we can only validate that level when the whole move up took out B?

And I have another question regarding top down analysis. The WK/H4 combination is great,but do you take into consideration the demand zones on the daily chart? I mean,like GBPUSD at the moment,we have a obvious WK supply level and WK demand level is still far away. But there is a daily demand zone near price. So what will you do in this situation? Will you keep track of the D1 demand zone or just leave it there because price is bouncing from WK supply zone so these D1 zone will be easily taken out?

Thank you for your help.
  • #3,209
  • Oct 14, 2013 9:59am Oct 14, 2013 9:59am
Quoting frenetic
{quote} Hi there Alfonso,I have a question about point E. When the first red candle came back to that area as you can see on the chart,can we take that trade even though that new area didn't take out any supply at that moment or we can only validate that level when the whole move up took out B?
No, you can't. You have to wait for brand new levels of demand being formed on your entry TF, a confirmation type of trade.

Quote
And I have another question regarding top down analysis. The WK/H4 combination is great,but do you take into consideration the demand zones on the daily chart? I mean,like GBPUSD at the moment,we have a obvious WK supply level and WK demand level is still far away. But there is a daily demand zone near price. So what will you do in this situation? Will you keep track of the D1 demand zone or just leave it there because price is bouncing from WK supply zone so these D1 zone will be easily taken out? Thank you for your help.

I will, they will be zones I need to see taken out before proceeding, I am not going to go short near those D1 zones, I will wait for price to be away from those zones, a bigger pullback to great H4 supply zones high in the curve TF area. A monthly supply has higher odds of removing opposing D1 demand zones, buying selling to close to those D1 demand zones is not too wise, it's lower odds. Wait for a bigger pullback to the origin of the move with a nice departure and imbalance.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,210
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:00am Oct 14, 2013 10:00am
Quoting takahashi69
Hi Alfonso, I have been following your thread for quite some time now. It is really helpful to me with all the information and guidance that you provided. So I will like to say a big thank you to you first! Secondly, in your latest webinar u mentioned that for your supply/demand curve calculation, you only use Drop Base Rally and Rally Base Drop? That is to say for the spreadsheet that you provided, you will not key in the prices of continuation pattern levels? I am using D1/H4 as my analysis and entering at H1 time frame. Hope you can confirm this....
Hi there!
You can use CP patterns for your curve as well, but the curve is measured normally from the extremes, the peaks and valleys. The CPs will be pauses in that curve that work really well if they go with the higher TF curve but they don't work that well if against it!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,211
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:15am Oct 14, 2013 10:15am
Quoting Soca
{quote} I understand what you're saying, but I think you're missing the point... If you or anyone desires to delve into this matter further, feel free to check out my "String Trades" journal here on Forex Factory. I didn't want to detract from this thread, so in the second post I went into the essential importance of having the proper respect and education for one of humanity's first professions: trading! It's what defines the truly successful traders from the posers in-my-opinion. Look forward to seeing you there. And in no way am I scalping...
Your point:

Quote: " I went into the essential importance of having the proper respect and education for one of humanity's first professions: trading! It's what defines the truly successful traders from the posers in-my-opinion "

My Point: I see so many traders get all wrapped up in: Who started this , Who started that, You took from this, You took from that...This does not work, That does not work.. etc, etc .. blah , blah , blah....

This really is detrimental to a traders mind set. Yet so many traders get to a point where they fall into this trap..Unfortunately they are unable to see it. This really stops them from becoming a good trader. FF is full of this type of mind set. Instead, one should focus on what works for them ( we all trade a bit differently even when we trade the same method ). If a thread has a good idea and it works for you, great! If, on the other hand, it does not ... move on.. Being critical of ones thread for any reason is truly a waste of your time. One's ego plays a big role in all of this and ego can be very nefarious.. it has cost me 10's of thousands. Once I realized this " need to be right " was a real issue and not just a bunch of babble.. I became profitable agian.

Simply put: I do not have to be right, just profitable.

Soca,,, Enjoyed the conversation. May your trading be profitable.



TSD
  • #3,212
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:46am Oct 14, 2013 10:46am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} No, you can't. You have to wait for brand new levels of demand being formed on your entry TF, a confirmation type of trade. {quote} I will, they will be zones I need to see taken out before proceeding, I am not going to go short near those D1 zones, I will wait for price to be away from those zones, a bigger pullback to great H4 supply zones high in the curve TF area. A monthly supply has higher odds of removing opposing D1 demand zones, buying selling to close to those D1 demand zones is not too wise, it's lower odds. Wait for a bigger...
About the first one,I think you misunderstood me. I know we have to wait for price to pull back to the new demand zone on our entry timeframe. But I just want to know if that zone at the E point is a valid demand zone at the moment the first red candle came back to it even though it didn't take out any supply? Or maybe I misunderstood your answer ? You will only take the trade if price come back to that zone in the future?

Hope you can clarify that for me,English is really hard sometimes....
  • #3,213
  • Oct 14, 2013 11:06am Oct 14, 2013 11:06am
Quoting frenetic
{quote} About the first one,I think you misunderstood me. I know we have to wait for price to pull back to the new demand zone on our entry timeframe. But I just want to know if that zone at the E point is a valid demand zone at the moment the first red candle came back to it even though it didn't take out any supply? Or maybe I misunderstood your answer ? You will only take the trade if price come back to that zone in the future? Hope you can clarify that for me,English is really hard sometimes....

if i may answer- the level at E will only be valid once the price has penetrated B,until then its not. After passing through B we see a new CP level just before thus validating this zone as well as zone at E.The time when the red bar touched the "Zone" it was not valid at that moment.(imo)
  • #3,214
  • Oct 14, 2013 12:36pm Oct 14, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting rickyrk
AUDUSD What if i go short from daily marked zone ? though its on 50% level of its weekly curve. WEEKLY {image} http://prntscr.com/1x7pnf DAILY {image} http://prntscr.com/1x7q7g H4 {image} http://prntscr.com/1x7qgr

well done.

I have the same..... D W 4h
  • #3,215
  • Oct 14, 2013 2:32pm Oct 14, 2013 2:32pm
Quoting frenetic
{quote} About the first one,I think you misunderstood me. I know we have to wait for price to pull back to the new demand zone on our entry timeframe. But I just want to know if that zone at the E point is a valid demand zone at the moment the first red candle came back to it even though it didn't take out any supply? Or maybe I misunderstood your answer ? You will only take the trade if price come back to that zone in the future? Hope you can clarify that for me,English is really hard sometimes....
Don't worry... The thing is that that demand zone you are talking about did not remove the CP supply zone, so I would not set & forget, I would wait for price to drop with that red candle, and wait for new levels of demand to be formed before I buy!

Hope that helps!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,216
  • Oct 14, 2013 2:35pm Oct 14, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting Gxp1
{quote} if i may answer- the level at E will only be valid once the price has penetrated B,until then its not. After passing through B we see a new CP level just before thus validating this zone as well as zone at E.The time when the red bar touched the "Zone" it was not valid at that moment.(imo)
Exactly Sometimes it will work without the levels being broken, but as you can see it's just a very mechanical way of validating or removing a supply and demand level. It's all about rules after all, better or worst, but rules

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,217
  • Oct 14, 2013 2:51pm Oct 14, 2013 2:51pm
GBPJPY
what do u think about shorting from h4 level ?



Weekly
http://i.imgur.com/2SAWWw3.png

Daily

http://s18.postimg.org/ehgoct1nt/2013.png
screen shot capture

H4

http://s12.postimg.org/yrrl56brh/2013.png
online photo storage
  • #3,218
  • Oct 14, 2013 2:52pm Oct 14, 2013 2:52pm
Hi all, I started watching the webinars and read the whole intro to s/d trading,
this thread has wealth of information which I find very valueable, still haven't yet to go over the posts, but that's where I am about to invest my time.
I chose to be intra-day trader as it fits my schedule,

I've done a top-down analysis on the XAUUSD (D1 and H1)
daily descending trendline xauusd is being respected and demand zones being eliminated,
on the hourly I was looking for a CP to go short with the trend but I find that it could be a weak zone as it already "visited" the area today(visited the green area)

I wonder if I can count on the indicator to find those supply/demand zones because the green zone I used the rectangle finder to draw it, also wonder if it is fresh and original(before the last red supply zone created)?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusddaily.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdh1.png Size: 53 KB
  • #3,219
  • Oct 15, 2013 12:40am Oct 15, 2013 12:40am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello there! Take a look at my attachment, you will see it better on the notes I made on your GBPUSD. {quote} Yes, it's not valid because of that reason {quote} Yes, it was non fresh and didn't take out demand, maybe by very few pips, a fakey {quote} Exactly Hope it makes sense to you! Just following the rules! It's a game's number, some will still work but if you apply strict rules that work over time, you will be on the right same more times than not! Alfonso {image}
Hi Alfonso,
I have been trading supply and demand since last year. It seems that you have some own great idea for this trading system.It is great! And off course it works better.So i personally very much impressed.Thanks for sharing your idea.I have attached chart based on your answer one of our mates.However i personally redraw it and post on for if it is ok or not.Because you note G/U weekly new demand but i differ and it is the previous reaction of weekly demand.please be sure if i am ok or why not....

Regards,
Happy trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: New Picture (8).jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #3,220
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:20am Oct 15, 2013 1:20am
Quoting rickyrk
GBPJPY what do u think about shorting from h4 level ? Weekly {image} Daily {image} screen shot capture H4 {image} online photo storage
Hi Rickyrk,

I would say this is a good set up, also the level below the one you have drawn looks very good. A new daily CP was formed, with a good departure.
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