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Let's Trade Options

  • #1,321
  • Oct 8, 2013 12:23pm Oct 8, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} damn that SPY and DOW looking like a huge move down, vxx calls are the way to go
cmg and pcln has sold of a little and now on the verge of heavy selling, been waiting for these two for a while
  • #1,322
  • Oct 8, 2013 2:32pm Oct 8, 2013 2:32pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} damn that SPY and DOW looking like a huge move down, vxx calls are the way to go
could be, but I don't see that long term in my crystal ball.

I think we need to see some real fear on the Street. Hasn't been yet. Some selling, yes, but I'd want to see some 250+ pt down days, and some movement in the bond market. 10y note is still flat - what's up with that?

I'm looking for the Chicken game to go down to the wire, till opex even. I'm playing s selloff via SDS, looking for $39.50 to make out very well. Somebody's gonna blink. And when it's over, the rally gets back up and VIX comes down.

That's my plan for a VIX options play, anyways....good luck to you
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,323
  • Oct 9, 2013 7:43am Oct 9, 2013 7:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} "The S&P BMI Emerging Markets Low Volatility Index measures performance of the 200 least volatile emerging markets stocks. The index benchmarks low volatility or low variance strategies. Constituents are weighted relative to the inverse of their corresponding volatility, with the least volatile emerging market stocks receiving the highest weights." ....ok, i guess i see some potential there....let us see your hourly charts when you have them.....
I should have this sometime today. I'm being reconnected to iq feed. It's an extra 5 bucks a month. lol
  • #1,324
  • Oct 9, 2013 12:22pm Oct 9, 2013 12:22pm
Look at the volumes on the Nov VXX puts - $14 - $16.

I think I like the $15 put @ $0.78....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,325
  • Oct 9, 2013 5:39pm Oct 9, 2013 5:39pm
Quoting The Fool
Look at the volumes on the Nov VXX puts - $14 - $16. I think I like the $15 put @ $0.78....
well fml I didn't get in. I was burning a pile out in the pasture and I went down to look at it and when I got back $15 Nov puts had gone up $0.25. (in the space of 0.5 hr) - I knew a turn was coming but I was thinking next week....now I won't be surprised if that 21.xx VIX was the top...but I am waiting again now....maybe get another chance.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,326
  • Oct 9, 2013 6:17pm Oct 9, 2013 6:17pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} damn that SPY and DOW looking like a huge move down, vxx calls are the way to go
Long here. Closed short calls for peanuts and now holding the other end - short puts, heavily underwater of course on those but happy to hold, roll, whatever, cos these markets know only one direction and that's up*


*famous last words
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,327
  • Oct 9, 2013 8:10pm Oct 9, 2013 8:10pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well fml I didn't get in. I was burning a pile out in the pasture and I went down to look at it and when I got back $15 Nov puts had gone up $0.25. (in the space of 0.5 hr) - I knew a turn was coming but I was thinking next week....now I won't be surprised if that 21.xx VIX was the top...but I am waiting again now....maybe get another chance.
omg did i really miss it?

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/vixpl...234916202.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,328
  • Oct 10, 2013 1:33pm Oct 10, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting The Fool
Look at the volumes on the Nov VXX puts - $14 - $16. I think I like the $15 put @ $0.78....
damn that nearly doubled in one day. Might've been the last chance for long VIX money in a while.

Now just buy risk, pay the limit, US and Japanese indices all headed for new highs, forever and ever.

Hardest trade in the world to do.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,329
  • Oct 10, 2013 2:24pm Oct 10, 2013 2:24pm
Turned out sunny again...
Shorting a few calls up here, still short the puts, but they're not worth what they were 24 hrs ago lol.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,330
  • Oct 11, 2013 9:51am Oct 11, 2013 9:51am
Just purchased ATM GDX $23.00 calls for 17c, todays expiry.

GDX IS TRADING A$23.00

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
23.00 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.56(2.36%) 10:49AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #1,331
  • Oct 11, 2013 11:46am Oct 11, 2013 11:46am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Just purchased ATM GDX $23.00 calls for 17c, todays expiry. GDX IS TRADING A$23.00 Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) -NYSEArca 23.00 {image} 0.56(2.36%) 10:49AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

added some more contracts for 12c to the above, todays expiration and same strike
  • #1,332
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:45pm Oct 11, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} added some more contracts for 12c to the above, todays expiration and same strike
Cecil, do you have, or have you read, this book? What you're doing sounds like it's the kind of stuff that's covered in the book.

http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Option...dp/0135058724/
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,333
  • Oct 11, 2013 3:01pm Oct 11, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Cecil, do you have, or have you read, this book? What you're doing sounds like it's the kind of stuff that's covered in the book. http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Option...dp/0135058724/
same stuff as i'm doing, never read this book and the gains are a lot bigger while keeping the losses very small. Options changed when the weeklies were intoduced 2 plus years ago.
  • #1,334
  • Edited 7:12pm Oct 11, 2013 6:25pm | Edited 7:12pm
Was thinking of putting on a Nov VXX spread at the close today, but got caught out & didn't get back to the puter in time. Kinda thinking there might be some hiccups early in next week re the govt shutdown broohaha, might be worth a shot straight vxx or on one of the index etfs.

Still not really in the game, had a great chance to make $xxxxx on the vix collapse this week and missed getting in by $0.01 I bet.

Just need to get back into a routine. Got a lot expiring next week, right now a mixed bag and the pile looks to break even overall. Got SDS Oct 19 $36 short puts that look like trouble, though, will need to get on those Monday.

Good weekend peeps.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,335
  • Oct 12, 2013 9:46am Oct 12, 2013 9:46am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} same stuff as i'm doing, never read this book and the gains are a lot bigger while keeping the losses very small. Options changed when the weeklies were intoduced 2 plus years ago.
Yes it's an interesting way to trade, because it goes against the prevailing wisdom - buy far out, sell near term.
Do you mind me asking, how much strategy is involved? Have you been doing it long? Is it a bit like "hit and hope" eg just buy stuff for pennies hours before expiry, and, say, on average 1 in 3 comes out as a stonking win, more than paying for the losses? Or is there more to it than that?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,336
  • Oct 12, 2013 9:52am Oct 12, 2013 9:52am
Quoting The Fool
Was thinking of putting on a Nov VXX spread at the close today, but got caught out & didn't get back to the puter in time. Kinda thinking there might be some hiccups early in next week re the govt shutdown broohaha, might be worth a shot straight vxx or on one of the index etfs. Still not really in the game, had a great chance to make $xxxxx on the vix collapse this week and missed getting in by $0.01 I bet. Just need to get back into a routine. Got a lot expiring next week, right now a mixed bag and the pile looks to break even overall. Got SDS...
Expecting this to totally reverse and then some myself, but of course as ever there's no way to know for sure. I favour slightly more than 50-50 that this will roll over this coming week and we go down past this past week's lows, but Danny (Mr TopStep) seems to think it's gonna take them longer to turn this short squeeze around. I think he's wrong, but he's a pro and I'm not, which means I'm probably wrong and wrongly positioned at this stage for what's coming. If they keep pushing past say 1702 ES it suggests to me they might want to go over the top eg 1750, kill all shorts and then drop the bastard down to say 1620.

I can see now TLT going much higher. I figure the Fed has a shitload of treasuries to dump and they ain't gonna dump em down here.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,337
  • Edited 2:57pm Oct 12, 2013 2:41pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I can see now TLT going much higher. I figure the Fed has a shitload of treasuries to dump and they ain't gonna dump em down here.
Maybe so, some say we will see 10y note back down to 2.4 in Nov., but that would be pred on US Congress raising the debt limit for another year and that done soon. I never bought my TLT strangle.

There's about a 2.5x inverse correlation between TLT and ^TNX, so a drop from ^TNX 2.68 to 2.41, about a 10% drop, would give a 4% rise in TLT, or put us back near $110.

A wide strangle, Nov $110/$100, is pretty cheap at $0.33/$0.35, ~$0.70 net...

Mr TopStep, huh?, had to google it, interesting site...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,338
  • Oct 12, 2013 4:53pm Oct 12, 2013 4:53pm
Yeah I don't spend much time on their site but I just check Danny Riley's videos every now and then - this one's for the close Friday:
Inserted Video

Problem is he doesn't give much away

Re TLT: I've no targets, no time-frames. I just don't see the bonds selling off and staying off. 40 year credit binge still going strong on the government debt side. For governments it is far easier to borrow a gazillion dollars with compliant "independent" CBs jamming yields down, than to tell the people what they want can't be afforded and to bloody well get used to it.
CBs like the Fed are stuffed to the gunnels with sovereign debt which they presumably would rather not hold to maturity and certainly don't want to sell at a loss.
So, a good old crisis every now and then probably helps to dump a load of treasuries into. Maybe it works like that, maybe I've got it completely ass-backwards lol.
I've just taken a look at the chart; I see price movement has compressed ; it appears to be bull flagging; with an inverse h+s; and a successful hold above the 50DMA.
But it's all tea-leaves. I'll prolly sell an ATM put on Monday depending on where the action is; small money.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 181 KB
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,339
  • Oct 12, 2013 8:32pm Oct 12, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
I'll prolly sell an ATM put on Monday depending on where the action is; small money. {image}
I wouldn't play TLT without covering my ass on both ends. If the debt limit "deadline" comes and goes w/o some happy talk out of DC the ^TNX could go back towards 3.0 and TLT could be at <$102 before Halloween.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,340
  • Oct 12, 2013 11:45pm Oct 12, 2013 11:45pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-sl...203506941.html

"....a new report from Société Générale's asset allocation team — which calls for a 15% correction in the stock market in the first quarter of next year, followed by a multi-year journey back to where the index sits today..."

But it's all based on the presumption that the Fed will taper in Q1 '14 and that 10y rates will be above 3.0.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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