Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 158 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,141
  • Oct 9, 2013 7:23pm Oct 9, 2013 7:23pm
Here's a nice GBPUSD set & forget trade on the 240 time frame.

Price is dropping from monthly & weekly supply. There is plenty of room to weekly demand. good profit potential for low risk. Lets see if I can make entry this week. If no entry by Friday, I will cancel order & analyse over weekend. Safe trading guys.
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  • #3,142
  • Oct 9, 2013 7:35pm Oct 9, 2013 7:35pm
Quoting Pro Trader
Hi fellow traders. Here's a nice little setup in the gbpcad. Divergence on the 15 min chart isn't necessary but I use it to filter levels. Lets see what happens. {image} {image} {image} {image}
I've closed this trade for a nice profit because I still have a short open in the eurcad which is still floating at break even. Also have a nice profit on am AUDCHF long from yesterday which I will hold until 8750 final target or until I get stopped out with a trail stop below daily demand.
  • #3,143
  • Oct 9, 2013 9:15pm Oct 9, 2013 9:15pm
Thanks Sir,

YOur motivational words will be make me a better trader.

I will take care of Levels once again. Although this sell was late & a kind of pullback to intraday levels.
  • #3,144
  • Oct 9, 2013 9:24pm Oct 9, 2013 9:24pm
Hi guys,

I have a small question about this setup in USDCHF. I don't know if it is valid.
">http://i39.tinypic.com/9rr9qb.jpg

As you can see, there have been several pin bars spotted on the 4hr chart, and it is also in a resistance region. We can see that the pair plunged when it was at this level in the past.

So is this setup valid to go in short?

Thanks!

Wllen1
  • #3,145
  • Oct 9, 2013 9:38pm Oct 9, 2013 9:38pm
I'm short the gj 155.70. Looking for 154. Alfonso is a great trader
  • #3,146
  • Edited 11:06pm Oct 9, 2013 10:49pm | Edited 11:06pm
Quoting wllen1
Hi guys, I have a small question about this setup in USDCHF. I don't know if it is valid. ">{image} As you can see, there have been several pin bars spotted on the 4hr chart, and it is also in a resistance region. We can see that the pair plunged when it was at this level in the past. So is this setup valid to go in short? Thanks! Wllen1
Hi Wllen1. Price could bounce from here, but we dont take every level. We are supply & demand traders from top down analysis. If you use the time frames correctly for daily/240 swing trading, we are in monthly & weekly demand at the moment. Its not the first time as price has pushed deeper into weekly demand so if you follow Alfonso's rules (supply & demand) not support & resistance, you can NOT go short here. You can only look for longs on the 240/ daily (but you will be going against weekly down trend so tight profit margins) This pair is not for me but if I was going to trade this pair, I would be looking for longs. We are trend traders using supply & demand. This is where the high odds are. Hope this helps.
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  • #3,147
  • Oct 9, 2013 11:00pm Oct 9, 2013 11:00pm
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Hi Mike, I was looking at the same zone and wondering the same thing too. One of my brokers (FxPro) has enough data to reveal a monthly supply zone where price is currently in, so I guess that invalidates our daily zone. {image}
Thanks Myst1z thats cleared that one up.
  • #3,148
  • Oct 10, 2013 12:38am Oct 10, 2013 12:38am
Quoting wllen1
Hi guys, I have a small question about this setup in USDCHF. I don't know if it is valid. ">{image} As you can see, there have been several pin bars spotted on the 4hr chart, and it is also in a resistance region. We can see that the pair plunged when it was at this level in the past. So is this setup valid to go in short? Thanks! Wllen1
Hi Wllen!

USDCHF short is not a valid setup to go short for several reasons:

  1. First we are not trading resistance like you mentioned, nor support. We are trading supply and demand which is different
  2. Pin bars? We don't care about candle formations, only about imbalances of supply and demand. Those pin bars are pin bars, nothing else
  3. You can't decide what to do if you haven't done your proper multiple timeframe analysis, you just showed a chart, no levels, paintd, no higher timeframes ares, nothing. So where are we? It's like being in NY city without a map, no big picture
  4. USDCHF is bouncing off higher timeframes of demand, you are not allowed to sell, that's all, at least not there, even if it works
  5. The trend in that timeframe has changed now, brand new levels of demand are being printed, supply levels are being taken out

Conlcusion: selling is not possible. Can shorts work? Of course, but not allowed according to this thread's rules

But like I said, you have to use the rectangle reader indicator, use the zones, draw them, know where you are in the higher timeframes (your big picture). Without that you can't take decisions.

Recommendation: read post #1, watch the videos, read the whole thread! It looks like you haven't done so, or you wouldn't ask such a question

Hope that helps!
Alfonso

EDIT: it looks like Pro Trader had already answered your quetions ooops! But you see, we both said the same thing after all. Take your time, you will need weeks to sink all this in. Patience brother!


Quoting Pro Trader
{quote} Hi Wllen1. Price could bounce from here, but we dont take every level. We are supply & demand traders from top down analysis. If you use the time frames correctly for daily/240 swing trading, we are in monthly & weekly demand at the moment. Its not the first time as price has pushed deeper into weekly demand so if you follow Alfonso's rules (supply & demand) not support & resistance, you can NOT go short here.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,149
  • Oct 10, 2013 2:03am Oct 10, 2013 2:03am
Sir,

Can we add an alert in Rectangle indicator about our level. When price hits level we could have voice & pops alert to enter the trade or not.

It is used in II Super Dam. It will be very very useful for us.

It just my suggestion, I think you will like that.

Thanks

Sanjay
  • #3,150
  • Oct 10, 2013 2:12am Oct 10, 2013 2:12am
Quoting esanjayplaye
Sir, Can we add an alert in Rectangle indicator about our level. When price hits level we could have voice & pops alert to enter the trade or not. It is used in II Super Dam. It will be very very useful for us. It just my suggestion, I think you will like that. Thanks Sanjay
Hi Sanjay,

Rather than complicate things I would suggest you just use a price alert within MT4 "Alerts" tab or a stand-alone trend line or price alert indicator.

Just do a search and you should find plenty of them to choose from.

Peter
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #3,151
  • Oct 10, 2013 8:16am Oct 10, 2013 8:16am
would it be correct to say that the weekly tf is indicating a shorting opportunity as the one ive highlighted?

the h4 tf has confused me. could someone reassure/advise me if the supply and demand levels highlighted are correct?
would this price be a good shorting opportunity to the demand level highlihgted?
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  • #3,152
  • Oct 10, 2013 8:47am Oct 10, 2013 8:47am
You haven't posted the reasons why you want to buy there, difficult to help. Your multiple timeframe analysis is not there, which is mandatory to take a decision.

Your WK supply level is not well painted, you didn't cover the whole Rally-Base-Drop level. You seem to have drawn a sort of CP which is not a CP. You are buying right in the middle of the WK curve.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,153
  • Oct 10, 2013 9:26am Oct 10, 2013 9:26am
I am holding a new live webinar tomorrow Friday at from 1 pm to 2:30 pm CEST

Those interested in attending please send me a private message over Forex Factory or fill this form out: http://eepurl.com/F_b7v
If you have already contacted me in the past, you don not need to do it again, you will get the link in your inbox in a while

Date: Friday 10th October 2013
Time: 1 pm to 2:30 pm CEST, right 1 hour before NY Market Open. 7 to 8:30 a.m EST

What will the webinar cover?

  1. How to choose your timeframe combinations and make your multiple timeframe analysis
  2. Look for some trade setups in the process

This webinar will be 1 hour and a half long this time.
If you are interested in attending, read above on how to join tomorrow's webinar.
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,154
  • Oct 10, 2013 11:53am Oct 10, 2013 11:53am
Alfonso,

I have a problem. Can you tell me what the right demand zone for the monthly curve is?
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  • #3,155
  • Oct 10, 2013 12:22pm Oct 10, 2013 12:22pm
They both are true & correct brother.

upper one also a fresh & original level,

Below one is Drop base rally, fresh also.

MOnthly level are hit very often, so close one is very useful.
  • #3,156
  • Oct 10, 2013 1:46pm Oct 10, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting Thierry
Alfonso, I have a problem. Can you tell me what the right demand zone for the monthly curve is? {image} {image}
Dont forget the latest demand that took out supply too. Because its monthly TF price may react to it on its way down. When price hits demand at this zone it will rally up (Novices enter long) into supply (where pros are waiting in the shadows) and trigger a sell.

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Keep your blades sharp!
  • #3,157
  • Oct 10, 2013 3:39pm Oct 10, 2013 3:39pm
Hi Alfonso and traders,

i am abit confused to select which Daily levels on US30 Daily chart, all looks CPs and fresh.
i draw 4 possible supply levels but which ones to choose is abit difficult for me.
i am waiting your comments.
thanks in advance...
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  • #3,158
  • Oct 10, 2013 3:42pm Oct 10, 2013 3:42pm
Quoting caparzo
Hi Alfonso and traders, i am abit confused to select which Daily levels on US30 Daily chart, all looks CP and fresh. i draw 4 possible supply levels but which ones to choose is abit difficult for me. i am waiting your comments. thanks in advance... {image}
If anything the third one from the botom, the one with the unfilled gap, then the top one at the extreme!

You need to know where the higher timeframes are located, only the D1 TF is not enough to make a decision. A multiple TF analysis need at least 2 TFs!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,159
  • Oct 10, 2013 3:44pm Oct 10, 2013 3:44pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} If anything the third one from the botom, the one with the unfilled gap, then the top one at the extreme! You need to know where the higher timeframes are located, only the D1 TF is not enough to make a decision. A multiple TF analysis need at least 2 TFs! Alfonso
yes alfonso, thanks...
i was asking for D1/H1 combo to select which D1 level to take possible short on H1 tf.
thanks again...
  • #3,160
  • Oct 10, 2013 4:28pm Oct 10, 2013 4:28pm
Quoting Thierry
Alfonso, I have a problem. Can you tell me what the right demand zone for the monthly curve is? {image} {image}
Maybe this might shed some light
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