Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 157 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,121
  • Oct 8, 2013 7:45pm Oct 8, 2013 7:45pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} See this Alfonso thread for the best way to scan for opportunities, unfortunately the video has been taken down : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=424894
thanks shabs!
  • #3,122
  • Edited 10:35pm Oct 8, 2013 9:58pm | Edited 10:35pm
Hi fellow traders. Here's a nice little setup in the gbpcad. Divergence on the 15 min chart isn't necessary but I use it to filter levels.
Lets see what happens.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad_daily_9_oct.png Size: 53 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad_15min_9_oct.png Size: 74 KB
  • #3,123
  • Edited 10:33pm Oct 8, 2013 10:21pm | Edited 10:33pm
Eurcad update

Made entry today but price overshot level slightly. Had 18 pip stop for this cross pair. Lets see what happens.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad_weekly_9_oct.png Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad_240_9_oct.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad_15min_9_oct.png Size: 77 KB
  • #3,124
  • Edited 4:25am Oct 9, 2013 4:03am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting Pro Trader
Eurcad update Made entry today but price overshot level slightly. Had 18 pip stop for this cross pair. Lets see what happens. {image} {image} {image}
Nice trade there!
I am short on whole D1 supply level. My EA missed the H4 supply zone for unkown reasons which I need study, but I am still short on whole D1 level.

I was triggered short on GBPCAD H4 supply zone though, similar zone!
Hopefully both will work!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad_h4.gif Size: 76 KB


EDITED: now the trade is at breakeven, closed part of it and holding it to my target. Hopefully it will get there
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 137 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,125
  • Oct 9, 2013 4:06am Oct 9, 2013 4:06am
Quoting Gxp1
Hi Alphonso or anybody,i have a problem deciphering how to look at EUR; Daily- shows price level high on curve hence indicating to look for shorts Hourly-i have only shown immediate supply demand zones ,it shows price to break TL1 indicating to look for shorting opportunity but it is above TL2 meaning its an uptrend and according to the rules shorting is not permited. how can this be traded (i know if ones unsure then dont trade) Thanks {image} {image}
There is an easy answer to your EURUSD question I believe!
The euro is too high in the curve, within Monthly supply! We just can't trade long, NOT ALLOWED. So only shorts Those are the rules!

Now that you have one direction only, look for nice levels to short since buying is not allowed that high even though they might work! Rules are rules! Prices are too high, at the montly supply, so no longs!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,126
  • Oct 9, 2013 5:04am Oct 9, 2013 5:04am
I was triggered on CADCHF long, and EURCAD short on h4 tf. Where i can put my TP, on d1 chart or weekly chart?
  • #3,127
  • Edited 12:57pm Oct 9, 2013 5:21am | Edited 12:57pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Nice trade there! I am short on whole D1 supply level. My EA missed the H4 supply zone for unkown reasons which I need study, but I am still short on whole D1 level. I was triggered short on GBPCAD H4 supply zone though, similar zone! Hopefully both will work! {image} EDITED: now the trade is at breakeven, closed part of it and holding it to my target. Hopefully it will get there {image}
Looking good so far. I also took a cheeky long on audchf 240 demand & gbpusd short (60 min divergence just before 240 level). All similar trades to the ones above just didn't want to post too many charts.

Going to hold longer on the Eurcad till 3950 before unloading half the position. I will trail stop mechanically above daily supply. Fingers crossed. Hopefully price can reach monthly demand or even weekly demand within monthly demand (3500 or 3250).
  • #3,128
  • Oct 9, 2013 5:48am Oct 9, 2013 5:48am
Hey everyone, hope this week's been a good one for you all so far!

I have a question to throw out there... I've been reviewing the CHFJPY chart and can see a possible long position trade (MN/D1) that would have triggered yesterday if I had decided to go through with it.

On the daily chart it looks pretty nice - upwards trendline, fresh level with significant initial movement etc.

The problem with the trade is that there is no monthly supply zone as this we're presently near an all-time high for this pair. I'd love to hear some opinions on the validity of this trade given we have no way of knowing where we are in the monthly curve.

Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY.png Size: 75 KB
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #3,129
  • Oct 9, 2013 6:00am Oct 9, 2013 6:00am
Quoting mjrsaunders
Hey everyone, hope this week's been a good one for you all so far! I have a question to throw out there... I've been reviewing the CHFJPY chart and can see a possible long position trade (MN/D1) that would have triggered yesterday if I had decided to go through with it. On the daily chart it looks pretty nice - upwards trendline, fresh level with significant initial movement etc. The problem with the trade is that there is no monthly supply zone as this we're presently near an all-time high for this pair. I'd love to hear some opinions on the validity...
Personally If I don't have enough data to see higher time frame supply, then I don't trade. If I was already in the trade holding position then I would be trailing the Daily Demand zone where you wish to enter. For me this is far to high to look for descent trading opportunities but it could work, just not for my plan.
Much better pairs to get into trades at the moment which are bouncing nicely from monthly/weekly S & D areas. All the best
  • #3,130
  • Oct 9, 2013 6:09am Oct 9, 2013 6:09am
Quoting Pro Trader
{quote} Personally If I don't have enough data to see higher time frame supply, then I don't trade. If I was already in the trade holding position then I would be trailing the Daily Demand zone where you wish to enter. For me this is far to high to look for descent trading opportunities but it could work, just not for my plan. Much better pairs to get into trades at the moment which are bouncing nicely from monthly/weekly S & D areas. All the best
That's exactly what I thought; and why I didn't take the trade. Thanks for the reply, I just wanted to confirm I wasn't the only one thinking this way!
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #3,131
  • Oct 9, 2013 6:24am Oct 9, 2013 6:24am
Hi traders,

I have a H1 buy setup on USD/CAD.
We are in an uptrend in Daily TF and has just broken Daily supply level with close above.
also we have plenty of room until the opposing Daily supply zone with least resistance on the way up
let's see...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_daily.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_cad_H1.png Size: 25 KB
  • #3,132
  • Oct 9, 2013 6:47am Oct 9, 2013 6:47am
Quoting mjrsaunders
Hey everyone, hope this week's been a good one for you all so far! I have a question to throw out there... I've been reviewing the CHFJPY chart and can see a possible long position trade (MN/D1) that would have triggered yesterday if I had decided to go through with it. On the daily chart it looks pretty nice - upwards trendline, fresh level with significant initial movement etc. The problem with the trade is that there is no monthly supply zone as this we're presently near an all-time high for this pair. I'd love to hear some opinions on the validity...
Hi Mike, I was looking at the same zone and wondering the same thing too. One of my brokers (FxPro) has enough data to reveal a monthly supply zone where price is currently in, so I guess that invalidates our daily zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 45 KB
  • #3,133
  • Oct 9, 2013 6:48am Oct 9, 2013 6:48am
Thank you Alfonso about all of the information you share here. I have been watching your videos and reading this thread - to make my trading profitable.

What comes to caparzo second picture above --> "Original and fresh level".
As I have understood from Alonso information, it is not level at all (based on the information/price history available on your screenshot).
Reason : "The previous high, just before that drop did not qualify as Supply zone, due to it does not break any demand zone.
Thus your drawn drop base rally is not demand, due to it does not break any supply.
--> That is not zone at all on the area of you box.

If that zone breaks some other supply level, which is not visible on the screenshot, then it is level...
  • #3,134
  • Oct 9, 2013 8:50am Oct 9, 2013 8:50am
Hi Alfonso Sir,

I am new to thread.

I am posting chart of Gold for some of my query.

Is this Short from 1327 $ is Set & FORGET trade.

As per rules we have a downtrend in daily & even trendline has not been broken.

Are we allowed to sell here.
Please help me out .

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.jpg Size: 226 KB
  • #3,135
  • Oct 9, 2013 11:45am Oct 9, 2013 11:45am
Quoting caparzo
Hi traders, I have a H1 buy setup on USD/CAD...
Hi caparzo, you can make the symbol and timeframe visible in your screen pics by going to the chart properties (F8) and checking 'Show OHLC'.
  • #3,136
  • Oct 9, 2013 12:37pm Oct 9, 2013 12:37pm
Quoting everfree
{quote} Hi caparzo, you can make the symbol and timeframe visible in your screen pics by going to the chart properties (F8) and checking 'Show OHLC'.
Hi there,
if u bring your Mouse over the chart without clicking and wating for a second, u can see which pair and what timeframe is.
  • #3,137
  • Oct 9, 2013 12:58pm Oct 9, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting mjrsaunders
{quote} That's exactly what I thought; and why I didn't take the trade. Thanks for the reply, I just wanted to confirm I wasn't the only one thinking this way!
Your on the right track
  • #3,138
  • Oct 9, 2013 1:15pm Oct 9, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting esanjayplaye
Hi Alfonso Sir, I am new to thread. I am posting chart of Gold for some of my query. Is this Short from 1327 $ is Set & FORGET trade. As per rules we have a downtrend in daily & even trendline has not been broken. Are we allowed to sell here. Please help me out . Thanks {image}
Hi there!
Welcome to the thread! The D1 levels were valid prior to your sell. The levels are not correcly painted, they are not covering the whole base. You sell trade is at a place where I see nothing, just a the close of the D1 candle. In order to assess any sell trade we need a multiple timeframe analysis. Only with that D1 chart and nothing else, it's very difficult to say. I just see that the D1 supply levels are not well drawn on your chart.

The D1 trend is down, D1 TL corretly painted, the bias is shorts for sure, u did a nice job!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,139
  • Oct 9, 2013 3:52pm Oct 9, 2013 3:52pm
Alfonso

Will you be traveling to Las Vegas forex show next month ? sorry I should have said attending .
  • #3,140
  • Oct 9, 2013 5:44pm Oct 9, 2013 5:44pm
Quoting doctorflush
Alfonso Will you be traveling to Las Vegas forex show next month ? sorry I should have said attending .
No, I won't Never attended such an event! It's a long way from Spain though, unless there is a good catering

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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