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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #581
  • Edited 2:18pm Jun 29, 2006 2:07pm | Edited 2:18pm
Originally Posted by itme
Wednesday 6/28/2006 18:15 ET

Buy opportunity on GBP/USD impending at 1.8165 - 1.8172

Quote from above: "Regarding GBP/USD, it fell much more than we expected, which was to 1.8217, but all the way to 1.8145, which is 72 pips further than expected.

We now expect GBP/USD to rise to between 1.8270 and 1.8310 before it reverses again and plummets with speed to the depths."

GBP/USD just fell as expected to about 1.8172, which presents a low risk / medium reward opportunity with a target of between 1.8270 and 1.8310.

Stop is about 1.8159, so the risk is abut 20 pips, with a possible gain of as much as 160 pips.

_________________________________

If one had taken the above trade, one would have lost 20 pips. If one had entered a long position after the GBP/USD descended to 1.8090, as we did, then one would have watched it rise to 1.8296 (so far). That is a profit of over 200 pips.

Also, we shorted GBP/USD at 1.8286, and expect a considerable retracement over the coming hours.
  • #582
  • Jun 29, 2006 2:30pm Jun 29, 2006 2:30pm
It me so whats your called and targets on the EURUSD and GBPUSD now that they have hit your upside targets? Good call by the way. The EURJPY call is looking good as well. Not to mention the USDCAD call...
  • #583
  • Jun 29, 2006 3:36pm Jun 29, 2006 3:36pm
Our guess is that GBP/USD will retrace to about 1.8215 or further, and then carry on up to between 1.8325 and 1.8400.
  • #584
  • Jun 29, 2006 4:11pm Jun 29, 2006 4:11pm
It me - You called a drop on the EUR/USD into the 124 range. Still thinking that?
  • #585
  • Jun 29, 2006 7:11pm Jun 29, 2006 7:11pm
Our guess is that EUR/USD will retrace to about 1.2610, then advance higher to between 1.2740 and 1.2800.
  • #586
  • Jun 29, 2006 8:28pm Jun 29, 2006 8:28pm
Thats what every1 will think...The US econ is the strongest in the world..I think in the very near furture it will go back toward 1.1800




Quoting itme
Our guess is that EUR/USD will retrace to about 1.2610, then advance higher to between 1.2740 and 1.2800.
  • #587
  • Edited 1:03am Jun 30, 2006 12:42am | Edited 1:03am
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Friday 6/30/2006 1:30 ET

TS #112 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8350 to 1.8370

Stop is 1.8375

Target #1 is 1.8080

Risk is max. 29 pips

Reward is min. 266 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.1 to 1

In terms of reward : risk ratio and probability of success, we would rate this a high quality trade. The price has risen to the typical retracement level (lite). The trade is in the direction of the larger inclusive trend. There is a convergence at 1.8365 of several high probability targetting lines. The criteria of another system are met as well. This is about as good as it gets.

For research purposes only.
  • #588
  • Jun 30, 2006 1:17am Jun 30, 2006 1:17am
Friday 6/30/2006 2:00 ET

TS #110B Advise Exit Sell USD/JPY at 114.45 or as low as possible

We came to within 10 pips of target #2 (114.35) ; 114.45 shows many signs of being a reversal point. Exit this trade here to collect a minimum of 206 pips of profit.

_______________________________________

Previous trade signals:

Tuesday 6/27/2006 7:30 ET

TS #110B Re-enter Sell USD/JPY at 116.55 to 116.70

This trade was just stopped out by about 7 pips. The stop should have been adjusted slightly higher according to our model. The trade is still valid. We advise re-entry at best (highest) price if necessary. Current price is 116.40. Recent high is 116.68. We expect the price to rise again to 116.55 to 116.70 to provide a favorable entry price.

Stop is 116.81

Target #1 is 114.90
Target #2 is 114.35
Target #3 is 112.80

_______________________________


TS #110A Re-enter Sell USD/JPY at 116.20 to 116.55

Friday 6/23/2006 9:00 ET
TS #110 was stopped out. There was one more impulse wave up to go. Now should be the top of the trend.

TS #110A Re-enter Sell USD/JPY at 116.20 to 116.55 on a bounce
Stop is 116.61
Target #1 is 114.90
Target #2 is 114.35
Target #3 is 112.80
Risk is max. 45 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 2.8 / 4.0 / 7.4 to 1
  • #589
  • Jun 30, 2006 1:25am Jun 30, 2006 1:25am
Friday 6/30/2006 2:15 ET

TS #111A Exit Sell USD/CHF at 1.2303 or as low as possible

For those who stayed in past the target #1, we advise exit at a strategic moment.
_______________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Wednesday 6/28/2006 10:45 ET
Stop should have been adjusted, but since it wasn't we were theoretically stopped out. Therefore,
TS #111A Re-Enter Sell USD/CHF at 1.2490 - 1.2500
Stop is 1.2506
Target #1 is 1.2350
Risk is max. 20 pips
Reward is min. 136 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 6.8 to 1
  • #590
  • Jun 30, 2006 1:54am Jun 30, 2006 1:54am
Friday 6/30/2006 2:30 ET

TS#105G Adjust target Short USD/CAD to 1.1070

______________________________________________________

Previous Trade Signals:
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Wednesday 6/28/2006 10:45 ET
We were stopped out on this trade.
TS#105G Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1260 to 1.1265
Stop is 1.1272
Target #1 is 1.1035

__________________________________________________

Tuesday 6/27/2006 19:30 ET
TS#105F Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1235 to 1.1240
The price of USD/CAD has risen to 1.1235 again, which is a perfect entry price in case someone did not enter or exited to take profit.
Stop is 1.1245
Target #1 is 1.1035
Risk is max. 14 pips
Reward is min. 196 pips
Reward :risk ratio is 14 to 1
<!-- / message -->
  • #591
  • Edited 3:11am Jun 30, 2006 2:19am | Edited 3:11am
Friday 6/30/2006 3:00 ET

TS #103I - Re-enter short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4085 - 1.4110

The capable trader with some common sense will have exited this trade when the price fell to 1.3948, 8 pips short of Target #1, for a minimum profit of 172 pips.

One can now re-enter the trade at the current price of about 1.4085 - 1.4110.

Stop is 1.4122

Target #1 is 1.3945

Risk is max. 47 pips

Reward is min. 130 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 2.8 to 1

_______________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

Tuesday 6/27/2006 7:10 ET
TS #103H - Re-enter short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4130 or higher
EUR/CAD continued down a little further than we expected, to 1.4080. It now has risen a little less than we expected, to 1.4130, from where we expect it to reverse and head downwards for a very long journey down.
Stop is 1.4161
Target #1 is 1.3940
__________________________________________________ ________

TS #103G - Exit short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4100 or lower and re-enter short position when price rises to about 1.4150 or higher.
_________________________________

Monday 6/26/2006 14:00 ET
TS #103G Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4163 or close to this price and adjust stop to 1.4185
We are chasing the top of this trend on a difficult cross currency pair. USD/CAD seems to be reversing, and EUR/CAD may have also reached a reversal point or be close to a reversal point at 1.4163. Further examination indicates that 1.4163 is a high probability reversal point also, so - re-entry close to this value is advised.

____________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________

Commentary: price rose to 1.4142 at 8:30 ET, over one hour after the signal was issued, then fell to the 1.4105 - 1.4125 area where it has stayed for a while. Later it fell to 1.4054, then rose to 1.4110, which would constitute a re-entry opportunity. The prospects for this trade look good. After the last comment was made EUR/CAD fell to 1.3948 on June 29th, then rose quickly to 1.4110 on June 30th. After the trade signal was issued, the price rose to a high of 1.4115, which afforded an excellent low risk, high reward entry price. With a stop of 1.4122, the risk would only be 7 + 9 = 16 pips, and the reward 161 pips. The reward : risk ratio will then be 10:1

This illustrates the extreme advantage of waiting for a favorable entry price, as it both reduces the risk and increases the rewards, greatly increasing the reward : risk ratio. The return on capital is directly proportional to the reward : risk ratio.

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  • #592
  • Edited Jul 4, 2006 1:01pm Jun 30, 2006 2:45am | Edited Jul 4, 2006 1:01pm
Friday 6/30/2006 8:30 ET

We were stopped out on the last try, but the most likely correct reversal point is as follows:

TS #108A Re-enter Sell AUD/CAD at .8255 to .8270

Stop is .8285

Target #1 is .8110

Target #2 is .8050

Risk is 38 pips

Reward is 137 / 197 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.6 / 5.2 to 1

_________________________________________

Previous Trade Signal:

Friday 6/30/2006 3:30 ET
Note:we erred in making the stop too close in this case. We realised this after posting it, but then hoped that we would scrape through. But we didn't, as the price rose to 8 pips past the stop to .8270. We now recommend re-entering if/when the price rises to about between .8260 and .8270. Stop is .8285

TS #108 Sell AUD/CAD at .8245 to .8250
Stop is .8262
Target #1 is .8110
Risk is max. 24 pips
Reward is min. 128 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 5.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

______________________________________________________

Commentary:

June 30, 2006 13:00

AUD/CAD rose to .8277, just 8 pips short of the stop at .8285.
With the likely strong fall in USD/CAD, AUD/CAD could fall strongly also to reach the slightly longer term target of .8050 , for a profit of 197 pips and a 5.2 to 1 trade which, with a risk factor of 5% produces a 26% return on capital.

July 3, 2006 14:00 ET

AUD/CAD rose to .8310 - which we believe is the top of the larger trend. In the process it hit our stop at .8285. According to our system, the stop should have been adjusted to .8321, which would have meant we are still in this trade. The price has subsequently fallen to .8233, but is likely to bounce, which will present a re-entry opportunity.

July 4, 2006 1:15 ET

AUD/CAD did bounce as predicted, up to .8290 at 7:00 ET this morning, then came down again to a recent low of .8226. Our current interpretation is that this is the end (or approx end) of a downwards Wave 4 complex corrective wave, and that future movement of this curency pair will be upwards to a target of about .8310 to .8350.

If this happens, then an opportunity will exist to enter a good low risk, high reward trade in alignment with the six week and one year downwards trends.

We recommend the exit of any short positions, and wait until a better opportunity presents itself.
  • #593
  • Jun 30, 2006 7:36am Jun 30, 2006 7:36am
THis one stopped out.





Quoting itme
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Friday 6/30/2006 1:30 ET


TS #112 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8350 to 1.8370

Stop is 1.8375

Target #1 is 1.8080

Risk is max. 29 pips

Reward is min. 266 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.1 to 1

In terms of reward : risk ratio and probability of success, we would rate this a high quality trade. The price has risen to the typical retracement level (lite). The trade is in the direction of the larger inclusive trend. There is a convergence at 1.8365 of several high probability targetting lines. The criteria of another system are met as well. This is about as good as it gets.

For research purposes only.
  • #594
  • Jun 30, 2006 7:48am Jun 30, 2006 7:48am
Friday 6/30/2006 8:30 ET

TS #112A Re-enter Sell GBP/USD at 1.8435 to 1.8450

Stop is 1.8467

__________________________________________

Previous trade signal:
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --><HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Friday 6/30/2006 1:30 ET

TS #112 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8350 to 1.8370

Stop is 1.8375

Target #1 is 1.8080

Risk is max. 29 pips

Reward is min. 266 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.1 to 1

In terms of reward : risk ratio and probability of success, we would rate this a high quality trade. The price has risen to the typical retracement level (lite). The trade is in the direction of the larger inclusive trend. There is a convergence at 1.8365 of several high probability targetting lines. The criteria of another system are met as well. This is about as good as it gets.

For research purposes only.
<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
  • #595
  • Jun 30, 2006 8:04am Jun 30, 2006 8:04am
Friday 6/30/2006 9:00 ET

Stop of 1.4122 was hit when the price rose after the morning announcements to 1.4159.

TS #103J- Re-enter short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4140 - 1.4160

Stop is 1.4171

Target #1 is 1.3945

________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Friday 6/30/2006 3:00 ET

TS #103I - Re-enter short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4085 - 1.4110

The capable trader with some common sense will have exited this trade when the price fell to 1.3948, 8 pips short of Target #1, for a minimum profit of 172 pips.
One can now re-enter the trade at the current price of about 1.4085 - 1.4110.
Stop is 1.4122
Target #1 is 1.3945
Risk is max. 47 pips
Reward is min. 130 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 2.8 to 1
  • #596
  • Jun 30, 2006 9:51am Jun 30, 2006 9:51am
Stopped out again.

Quoting itme
Friday 6/30/2006 8:30 ET

TS #112A Re-enter Sell GBP/USD at 1.8435 to 1.8450

Stop is 1.8467

__________________________________________

Previous trade signal:


<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --><HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Friday 6/30/2006 1:30 ET


TS #112 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8350 to 1.8370

Stop is 1.8375

Target #1 is 1.8080

Risk is max. 29 pips

Reward is min. 266 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.1 to 1

In terms of reward : risk ratio and probability of success, we would rate this a high quality trade. The price has risen to the typical retracement level (lite). The trade is in the direction of the larger inclusive trend. There is a convergence at 1.8365 of several high probability targetting lines. The criteria of another system are met as well. This is about as good as it gets.

For research purposes only.
<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
  • #597
  • Jun 30, 2006 9:56am Jun 30, 2006 9:56am
Itme,
Is there a typo......you have two diferent pairs for TS#112/ 112A i.e. GBP/USD and AUD/CAD?

jj/.
  • #598
  • Edited 1:33pm Jun 30, 2006 11:06am | Edited 1:33pm
Friday 6/30/2006 12:00 ET

TS #103K- Re-enter short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4245

Stop is 1.4265

Target #1 is 1.3945

Target #2 is 1.3840

_________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

Friday 6/30/2006 9:00 ET


Stop of 1.4122 was hit when the price rose after the morning announcements to 1.4159.
TS #103J- Re-enter short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4140 - 1.4160
Stop is 1.4171
Target #1 is 1.3945

________________________________________

Friday 6/30/2006 3:00 ET

TS #103I - Re-enter short EUR/CAD trade at 1.4085 - 1.4110

The capable trader with some common sense will have exited this trade when the price fell to 1.3948, 8 pips short of Target #1, for a minimum profit of 172 pips.
One can now re-enter the trade at the current price of about 1.4085 - 1.4110.
Stop is 1.4122
Target #1 is 1.3945
Risk is max. 47 pips
Reward is min. 130 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 2.8 to 1

____________________________________________________________

Commentary: We were stopped out when the price rose to 1.4287. Re-entry at a strategic point would be a good idea, as this trade has huge potential. The current price of 1.4260 may be the best that will be available, or it may rise to near 1.4287 again.
<!-- / message -->
  • #599
  • Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:07pm Jun 30, 2006 11:12am | Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:07pm
Friday 6/30/2006 12:00 ET

GBP/USD rose 410 pips in one day, from 1.8088 on Thursday to 1.8500 today, Friday. We think it is finished rising for the time being.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

TS #112B Re-enter Sell GBP/USD at 1.8480 to 1.84585

Stop is 1.8526
<o></o>
Target is about 1.8000<o></o>

Risk is max. 50 pips

Reward is min. 476 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is min. 9.5 to 1

_______________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

Friday 6/30/2006 8:30 ET
TS #112A Re-enter Sell GBP/USD at 1.8435 to 1.8450
Stop is 1.8467

__________________________________________


<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Friday 6/30/2006 1:30 ET
TS #112 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8350 to 1.8370
Stop is 1.8375
Target #1 is 1.8080
Risk is max. 29 pips
Reward is min. 266 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.1 to 1
In terms of reward : risk ratio and probability of success, we would rate this a high quality trade. The price has risen to the typical retracement level (lite). The trade is in the direction of the larger inclusive trend. There is a convergence at 1.8365 of several high probability targetting lines. The criteria of another system are met as well. This is about as good as it gets.

For research purposes only.

_________________________________________

Commentary:

Tuesday July 4, 2006 15:00 ET

GBP/USD seems to have peaked out last Friday at 1.8497. It then came down over 100 pips to 1.8386, after which it went back up to form a second top at 1.8478 at 9:30 ET July 4.

We interpret these two movements down and up as the first and second waves of a new downwards trend.

Since the second peak at 1.8478 this morning the price fell to 1.8445 and then rose to 1.8472 .

We consider these the first movements of a third larger downwards wave that should carry the price of GBP/USD down to 1.8375 and on further down.

Wednesday July 5, 2006 at 12:30 ET

Our assessment above is still valid. GBP/USD proceeded downwards as predicted in the course of Wave 3. The corrective bounce of Wave 3 was very large, taking the price up 61 pips to 1.8486 after the first move down to 1.8425. Then Wave 3 turned up the volume for the 3rd Wave of Wave 3, carrying the price down 160 pips to 1.8326.

We are now in a corrective rest phase, which doesn't seem to have much bullish capacity. Another sell opportunity should present itself at about 1.8355 - 1.8360, some time later this afternoon or tonight.

<!-- / message --><!-- edit note --><!-- / message -->
  • #600
  • Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:30am Jun 30, 2006 11:21am | Edited Jul 5, 2006 11:30am
Friday 6/30/2006 12:00 ET

USD/CAD fell to 1.1080, where hopefully the holders of this trade exited, 10 pips short of our revised target, and then USD/CAD rose strongly to 1.1150, in the opposite motion to the rest of the market.

TS#105H Re-enter Short USD/CAD at 1.1150

Stop is 1.1176

Target #1 is 1.1035
Target #2 is 1.0950

Risk is max. 30 pips

Reward is min. 111 / 196 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 3.7 / 6.5

________________________________________________________

Previous Trade Signals:

Friday 6/30/2006 2:30 ET

TS#105G Adjust target Short USD/CAD to 1.1070

__________________________________________________ ____

Wednesday 6/28/2006 10:45 ET
We were stopped out on this trade.
TS#105G Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1260 to 1.1265
Stop is 1.1272
Target #1 is 1.1035

__________________________________________________

Tuesday 6/27/2006 19:30 ET
TS#105F Re-enter Sell USD/CAD at 1.1235 to 1.1240
The price of USD/CAD has risen to 1.1235 again, which is a perfect entry price in case someone did not enter or exited to take profit.
Stop is 1.1245
Target #1 is 1.1035
Risk is max. 14 pips
Reward is min. 196 pips
Reward :risk ratio is 14 to 1

_____________________________________________________________

Commentary:

We were stopped out by 3 pips when USD/CAD rose to 1.1179. Re-enter sell on a rise, hopefully at about 1.1170 to 1.1180.

7/3/2006 11:45 ET

As hoped, USD/CAD rose one more time to 1.1186 before falling. The current price is 1.1112. It will probably go down to about 1.1105, then go back up to about 1.1150 again before resuming its downwards trek.

7/4/2006 15:15 ET

USD/CAD is more bearish than expected. It fell lower than 1.1105, to 1.1084 instead, and then instead of rising to about 1.1150 it only rose to 1.1126 before resuming its downwards trend.

7/4/2006 18:45 ET

USD/CAD fell to 1.1055 at 12:30 ET on 7/4/2006, then rose to 1.1097 in the complex wave 4 corrective wave of the downwards Wave 5. We are now in the finishing run - wave 5 of wave 5 of a downwards trend that started on July 2nd at 19:00 ET at a price of 1.1190 - 100 pips above the current price of 1.1090. The target is 1.1000 and then 1.0960.

Wednesday July 5 at 12:30 ET

USD/CAD went down to 1.1043, then instead of a small bounce, rose higher than expected, almost 100 pips, all the way to 1.1138. What we thought was the complex corrective Wave 4 of the downwards Wave 5 was only the first part "A" of it. "B" took the USD/CAD up to 1.1139. It is not even finished, and may go up even higher, to about 1.1150 as previously predicted. Then the downwards trend will resume towards 1.10035

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