Probability comes from a set of fixed variables.

The market and its participants variables are never fixed, therefore probability cannot apply to the markets.

I'm sorry to say that is the raw truth. Only SKILL applies to the markets.

Skill in recognizing the market patterns that the market makers trade off of.

Psychological skill, discipline, patience.. all of it has nothing to do with probabilities.

What's probable for one person may be improbable for another (skill difference).

That's not true probability. It has to be equal across the board, like in a casino

(although skill also effects probability in casino too, but it can be calculated... such as Blackjack, bad players vs good players vs card counters, you can calculate that if they play this hand vs this hand everytime this will be their overall %chance of winning)

Therefore if you cannot calculate the skill of a trader, you cannot calculate his probability.

You can use historical data to predict future probabilities but that's all it is is a prediction.

It's the self fulfilling prophecy of people trying to trade on "historical probabilities" that creates the success of those probabilities in the future.

Not the historical probabilities themself. But the self fullfilment of those by the traders.

That's why I believe markets are far more technically driven than fundamentally.

And that's why true market technicians seem to be able to predict monetary and fiscal policy before they even change. It's because the policies PURPOSELY FOLLOW the HARMONY and TECHNICAL PATTERNS of the markets.

To make a distortion between policy and how the technicals look on a chart, would create confusion and would dry up liquidity. Markets would be stupidly volatile from even the tiniest of orders..but not liquid. World trade would cease to function.

The market and its participants variables are never fixed, therefore probability cannot apply to the markets.

I'm sorry to say that is the raw truth. Only SKILL applies to the markets.

Skill in recognizing the market patterns that the market makers trade off of.

Psychological skill, discipline, patience.. all of it has nothing to do with probabilities.

What's probable for one person may be improbable for another (skill difference).

That's not true probability. It has to be equal across the board, like in a casino

(although skill also effects probability in casino too, but it can be calculated... such as Blackjack, bad players vs good players vs card counters, you can calculate that if they play this hand vs this hand everytime this will be their overall %chance of winning)

Therefore if you cannot calculate the skill of a trader, you cannot calculate his probability.

You can use historical data to predict future probabilities but that's all it is is a prediction.

It's the self fulfilling prophecy of people trying to trade on "historical probabilities" that creates the success of those probabilities in the future.

Not the historical probabilities themself. But the self fullfilment of those by the traders.

That's why I believe markets are far more technically driven than fundamentally.

And that's why true market technicians seem to be able to predict monetary and fiscal policy before they even change. It's because the policies PURPOSELY FOLLOW the HARMONY and TECHNICAL PATTERNS of the markets.

To make a distortion between policy and how the technicals look on a chart, would create confusion and would dry up liquidity. Markets would be stupidly volatile from even the tiniest of orders..but not liquid. World trade would cease to function.

Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.