National Currency Strength/Weakness Indicators

Which macroeconomical news and indicators defines national currency increase or decrease in value in long term in you opinion?

Strong.

There is only one thing which can cause a currency's value to increase or decrease - that is people buying and selling it. The indicators that matter long term are the ones which most allow/encourage more people to buy OR sell a particular currency. The big three IMO that do this are GDP, CFTC positioning and investor risk sentiment. If those three indicators start to line up in the same direction, NOTHING else will stop that currency moving where it's supposed to go.

I would go with "current deficit" and of course, there are a few other things you could look out for, industrial production, manufacturing data, the reg financial indicators..

There are the macroeconomic factors that might cause the increase or decrease of the national currency, but it deeply depends of the country. For example, if there would be no confirmed budget in, for example, Brazil, the national currency would be decreasing sharply. Although now we can observe the situation when the US budget is being delayed for a week already, but nobody rushes to sell it. Croatia joining to EU force the national currency (Kuna) to increase.

In many cases the national currency exchange rate depends of the price for the main export good. Like the oil for the Middle East countries or the natural gas for Russia.