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  • #10,141
  • Oct 5, 2013 3:14pm Oct 5, 2013 3:14pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Gladly, I found the study on one of my old backups. You earn me a beer or two - ahhh, rubbish, bring a whole vat so that we can invite Schickeria as well: {image}
Next time you are down here, let me know, lunch is on me and bring Schick as well.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #10,142
  • Oct 5, 2013 6:09pm Oct 5, 2013 6:09pm
Quoting Miller180
{quote} It was issued in year 1994. Material is great, no doubts, but maybe there is something more recent??



Do you think, interpretation/analysis of market profiles do change over time (the method)?

I think there is no need of inventing the tire over and over again. What do you think?
  • #10,143
  • Edited 10:31pm Oct 5, 2013 6:12pm | Edited 10:31pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Many thanks for the links provided - very interesting Regarding the question, if one should use Futures market data as leading indicator, Juan Cabrera , Tao Wang and Jian Yang gave us very good answers with their study-work: Do Futures Lead Price Discovery in Electronic Foreign Exchange Markets? Here is (part of) the conclusion: Given much recent evidence of the superiority of electronic trading, it is interesting to ask the question: among these markets trading electronically, which one leads the price discovery process? This paper attempts...
problem: since no centralized data is provided yet in the forex spot market ..and the inter-dealer spot market is derived from different banks with different quotes..the above comparison although very informative becomes a mute point. tick data is available and been around for decades..nothing new there..centralized real volume is only accurate on the CME at this point...Inter - Dealer rates due to the nature of the "few banks here few banks there" "price and data syndrome" provided to different brokers can be highly inaccurate. Case in point...the spot forex prices as it is today can and do differ from broker to broker (hw do I kno?!?) as a result we hear the regular complaints from traders about having to deal with "stops being taken out through stop chasing" whereas in reality prices quoted by a or a few banks to the broker differ from each other due liquidity and "other" factors by the bank(s). Only a centralized electronic data collector/provider where many banks report to and a mean denominator quote is electronically dispersed will ultimately eliminate the "Wild West" data corral of today's FX retail spot market. Transparent true data will then be available to all subscribers ......will it ever happen? Today's Technology is certainly not in the way ...but the Banks???.... lots of money to be made on spreads......and other "techniques".....
  • #10,144
  • Oct 6, 2013 1:31am Oct 6, 2013 1:31am
Quoting infinitus
The spies again, and fallacy of statistics http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...oure-terrorist

Double LOL at the spies:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...ed-spy-program

NSA Chief Admits "Only One Or Perhaps Two" Terror Plots Stopped By Spy Program


Pressed by the Democratic chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee at an oversight hearing, Gen. Keith B. Alexander admitted that the number of terrorist plots foiled by the NSA’s huge database of every phone call made in or to America was only one or perhaps two — far smaller than the 54 originally claimed by the administration.
  • #10,145
  • Oct 6, 2013 1:38am Oct 6, 2013 1:38am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Milam, Pablo and Venzen, interesting discusion. Here my 2 cts. There has been a study conducted regarding the usefulness of tick volume in Forex trading. The result was, that you can use tick volume without problem, when the liquidity pool your broker uses, is deep enough. In this case tick-volume is representative for true volume. So conclusion is: Tick-volume of Bucket-shops should be avoided, whereas Tick-volume of ECN brokers with deep liquidity pools can be used. I published this study 2 years or so ago here in FF, but I can not...
I found http://www.netdania.com/Products/liv...Chart.aspx?m=c is good source for tick chart and true volume indication.
Is it any software which indicate the buy and sell volume on the base of tick data. or using natdania data can some one code a program so we can see buy and sell volume in different color at present it is only red color for volume.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tick1.GIF Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1MIn.GIF Size: 70 KB
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #10,146
  • Oct 6, 2013 2:02am Oct 6, 2013 2:02am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} problem: since no centralized data is provided yet in the forex spot market ..and the inter-dealer spot market is derived from different banks with different quotes..the above comparison although very informative becomes a mute point. tick data is available and been around for decades..nothing new there..centralized real volume is only accurate on the CME at this point...Inter - Dealer rates due to the nature of the "few banks here few banks there" "price and data syndrome" provided to different brokers can be highly inaccurate. Case...

Hi Pablo,

have you really read the study I provided in this link?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post7007933

The study debunked exactly your arguments.


Now you can come up with an argument like: "we do not see whole volume because some banks/institutions trade in dark pools"


Well, that may be an argument, but that argument would also be valid in any other market, too. So if that would have meaningful impact, volume in general would be worthless in trading, not only in FX.



And as I said earlier: you have to choose the right broker: stp-ecn AND deep liquidity pool


spread widening, stop hunting etc. are the techniques of bucket shops with dealing desk - avoid them like the plaque


When I see here in FF what brokers some trader uses I would like to


But it seems: everyone deserves what he is asking for......


But your argument regarding different price output via different broker/banks (mostly a difference of a pip or so when comparing true stp-ecn broker) gives enough ammunition to the critics of the "to the pip" ideology.


For me, as Elliottican, it is important to get data which represent a representative amount of mass-psychology. One single dealer/trader of a big bank can maybe chase enough money around to move the price for a moment, but in the long run this "manipulation" will not alter the underlying social mood. Since price is a reflection of social mood, it will not alter the structure of price development in the long run meaningful. You can see that very good in charts where central bankers activity is marked beside the price data.


Over 90% congruency between real volume and tick-data seems enough for my purposes.
  • #10,147
  • Oct 6, 2013 2:22am Oct 6, 2013 2:22am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} I found http://www.netdania.com/Products/liv...Chart.aspx?m=c is good source for tick chart and true volume indication. Is it any software which indicate the buy and sell volume on the base of tick data. or using natdania data can some one code a program so we can see buy and sell volume in different color at present it is only red color for volume. {image} {image}

Hi PA,

do not know if I understand correct, but I suspect, that the "Volume" on that chart again is "Tick-volume"


Or are you saying: "because Netdania offers reliable data (tick-data), you would like to use their tick data as proxy for true-volume, hence you request an indicator showing up- and down-volume?
  • #10,148
  • Oct 6, 2013 2:39am Oct 6, 2013 2:39am
I got an interesting question regarding the use of MACD or Awesome oscillator for judgement of wave 3, when price has grown exponentially.

You know, wave 3 should produce the most momentum.


But when we now apply AO or MACD to a chart, where exponential growth is shown, you most likely end with a wrong conclusion, because these indicators most likely will show, that the most momentum is at the end of the price chart.

That is attributed to their underlying math.

To avoid such misinterpretation in instruments with exponential growth (like the weekly/monthly Gold chart), we have to use a modification of these indicators.

For this case I do normally use the PPO or Percentage Price Oscillator. A good description can be found here:


http://www.cmsfx.com/en/trading-soft...ce-oscillator/


Look at the MT4 picture to see the difference.

This picture would be even more clear, when MT4 would have the ability to show the charts with logarithmic scale
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdweekly.png Size: 55 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 PPO.mq4   3 KB | 263 downloads
  • #10,149
  • Oct 6, 2013 2:43am Oct 6, 2013 2:43am
Quoting infinitus
I got an interesting question regarding the use of MACD or Awesome oscillator for judgement of wave 3, when price has grown exponentially. You know, wave 3 should produce the most momentum. But when we now apply AO or MACD to a chart, where exponential growth is shown, you most likely end with a wrong conclusion, because these indicators most likely will show, that the most momentum is at the end of the price chart. That is attributed to their underlying math. To avoid such misinterpretation in instruments with exponential growth (like the weekly/monthly...

that is the same chart but on monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdmonthly.png Size: 42 KB
  • #10,150
  • Oct 6, 2013 2:44am Oct 6, 2013 2:44am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} ja ja und du brauchst den 1555 post per day, nur nonsense. geh einfach

Do you expect the people to post meaningful analysis in EURUSD thread?


It would be "Perlen vor die Säue"
  • #10,151
  • Oct 6, 2013 3:17am Oct 6, 2013 3:17am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Pablo, have you really read the study I provided in this link? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post7007933 The study debunked exactly your arguments. Now you can come up with an argument like: "we do not see whole volume because some banks/institutions trade in dark pools" Well, that may be an argument, but that argument would also be valid in any other market, too. So if that would have meaningful impact, volume in general would be worthless in trading, not only in FX. And as I said earlier:...
I kno it debunked it ..but I still can't see true r/t volume on my bar chart ....it would be nice to have....but I can imagine when volumes are high together with price movements..i don't need a tick chart to show me that..no sweat..not that crucial imo... not for me ...its an after the fact event on a I/D move...agreed not so much for general analysis..like EW or others..
  • #10,152
  • Oct 6, 2013 3:53am Oct 6, 2013 3:53am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} of the "to the pip" ideology. For me, as Elliottican, it is important to get data which represent a representative amount of mass-psychology. One single dealer/trader of a big bank can maybe chase enough money around to move the price for a moment, but in the long run this "manipulation" will not alter the underlying social mood. Since price is a reflection of social mood, it will not alter the structure of price development in the long run meaningful. You can see that very good in charts where central bankers activity is marked...
It is important to understand that the market-makers do not control the market. They are responding to
market conditions and taking advantage of opportunities presented to them. Where there is a window of
opportunity provided by market conditions – panic selling or thin trading – they may see the potential to
increase profits through price manipulation, but they can only do so if the market allows them to. You
must not therefore assume that market-makers control the markets. No individual trader or organisation
can control any but the most thinly traded of markets for any substantial period of time.

Market-makers are fully aware of the activities of trading syndicates and other professional operators that
place substantial orders. It therefore makes sense that they will take whatever opportunity is available to
better their own accounts accordingly.


Tom Williams
  • #10,153
  • Oct 6, 2013 3:58am Oct 6, 2013 3:58am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} I kno it debunked it ..but I still can't see true r/t volume on my bar chart ....it would be nice to have....but I can imagine when volumes are high together with price movements..i don't need a tick chart to show me that..no sweat..not that crucial imo... not for me ...its an after the fact event on a I/D move...agreed not so much for general analysis..like EW or others..

to each his own, but me thinks, that you give away a tool, that is worth to try it out


what is I/D move?

all what we see is after the event or at the event - pre the invent is our imagination only


but volume at the event gives you very good ideas for the next step (hint: stopping volume etc.)
  • #10,154
  • Oct 6, 2013 4:01am Oct 6, 2013 4:01am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} to each his own, but me thinks, that you give away a tool, that is worth to try it out what is I/D move? all what we see is after the event or at the event - pre the invent is our imagination only but volume at the event gives you very good ideas for the next step (hint: stopping volume etc.)
I/D Intraday ...
  • #10,155
  • Oct 6, 2013 4:01am Oct 6, 2013 4:01am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} I kno it debunked it ..but I still can't see true r/t volume on my bar chart ....it would be nice to have....but I can imagine when volumes are high together with price movements..i don't need a tick chart to show me that..no sweat..not that crucial imo... not for me ...its an after the fact event on a I/D move...agreed not so much for general analysis..like EW or others..



we learned, that Tick-volume is a 90% accurate proxy for real volume

you can show this tick-volume on every chart on every TF, no need to watch it on tick-charts
  • #10,156
  • Oct 6, 2013 4:13am Oct 6, 2013 4:13am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} we learned, that Tick-volume is a 90% accurate proxy for real volume you can show this tick-volume on every chart on every TF, no need to watch it on tick-charts
no proplemo maybe I have another look at it...but like mentioned abv..not so valid for i/d trading/scalping... but could be of value for identifying possible reversals in combination with other indicators and pa.....

http://www.informedtrades.com/510656-tick-volume.html
  • #10,157
  • Oct 6, 2013 4:55am Oct 6, 2013 4:55am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} no proplemo maybe I have another look at it...but like mentioned abv..not so valid for i/d trading/scalping... but could be of value for identifying possible reversals in combination with other indicators and pa..... http://www.informedtrades.com/510656-tick-volume.html

what is the reasoning?

If you are only looking at tick-volume without further processing on a bar-chart, then it is more useful in intraday trading on smaller TF's (4h and below) than in position trading, because on smaller TF's you can see better stopping volume, churning, divergences etc.


If you do process the volume data more like Market-profiles it gives very valuable information on all TF's


As with every method it is best, when several methods support the same view



And like with every other method one has to invest time to learn and understand the method
  • #10,158
  • Oct 6, 2013 5:00am Oct 6, 2013 5:00am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} no proplemo maybe I have another look at it...but like mentioned abv..not so valid for i/d trading/scalping... but could be of value for identifying possible reversals in combination with other indicators and pa..... http://www.informedtrades.com/510656-tick-volume.html

why do you try to convince me with a link to a statement regarding tick-volume, that the study I showed debunked as myth in a scientific valid approach?

Your cited article states: " I think that volume size is of less importance in forex" and what follows is the typical myth about tick-volume


Inquiring minds want to know..........


But like I said: Every man is the architect of his own fortune
  • #10,159
  • Oct 6, 2013 5:10am Oct 6, 2013 5:10am
thank you infinitus I found what I am looking for in one of your post i.e batter volume indicator, I use it with MML_Multi_Option_v1.24he stochastic stack, and 14CCI.

I think netdaina tick volume data is more reliable than bucket shop.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #10,160
  • Oct 6, 2013 7:56am Oct 6, 2013 7:56am
Quoting priceaction1
thank you infinitus I found what I am looking for in one of your post i.e batter volume indicator, I use it with MML_Multi_Option_v1.24he stochastic stack, and 14CCI. I think netdaina tick volume data is more reliable than bucket shop.

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