Which book should I read first among these 3?

Exactly exactly .


I heard that book also. OMG, so many good books around. How to finish?

No but I applied it a little when I play strategy online game and used it to crash my opponent base. LOL.

Noted. Thanks for your advise.

Thanks for clarifying.

That is a big no No NO!

Many traders build they system to trade the spike.
I have learnt my lesson and somebody wise already told me to not do it, but I needed to loose a few $ me too.

Even if you catch the bottom and the top too, without any slippage, what do you expect your broker what will do? Has he time to send your trades to market? - if is a really ECN if not, than how long will you expect your broker will loose in order to let you to win? -and now seriously?

Let him live and live you too!

NFP , Unemployment is 1-1 minute spike.
In 1 month are (20-22)x24x60= 30240 minutes and you want to trade exactly those 2, because you can't make a trade in any other? If yes, than you deserve the widening spread, lag, slippages, SL not hitten, TP not hitten, virtual spikes, your broker will delete your winner trades, your broker will not give your money, your broker will tell you to move your money in 2 day from him, your broker simply will put your userId and your trade orders inn a special queue with the lowest priority and you will see never seen lags. Which ones do you need ? Why the Hell want the spike?! - because in demo it sounds good?

I give you a few hint:

Go here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=410286
And see people for who took 6 years to find an edge.
I have found it earlier, but I didn't realise it.

From a small number of trades ( few hundred) or just above 1k you can see what is going on. Under 100 trade you can have series of winning trades ( 18 in row) and series of loosing trades ( 10 in row) is kinda hard to not raise the leverage after the 17th winner trade in a row if for you isn't boring yet the trading After 4th consecutive loss you will drop your system or start to watch what is wrong with it. It is nothing: just big numbers rule.

The second: leverage. If you spent time on it and you are in negative, than or you don't have an edge, or you have to much leverage. This only you can tell it. But if you want to get help from others, than set up a trade explorer, especially for a demo account.

Market ar driven in 3 ways: Technical, News, Sentiment.
Ofc it is not enough 1 of they, with 2 you will have a winner system, but need to know there are 3. Sentiment: when simple just are more sellers than buyers. No news, no technical and just moving the price and I am asking WFT is happening

Also check the trade leaderboard (Trades tab), many doesn't give attention for Aug1-Sept15 is different, it is lack of big players: Sentiment driven. Many are loosing accounts, because the Tech+News doesn't works as in other periods. Same on dec 15-jan 15. It can be traded profitable, just in other way.

To find you edge:
- do not expect to tell somebody for you his edge: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post6396752
- even if he would tell, but miss a detail, than for you will not work. Because he master his plan and you don't, you don't have the same knowledge as him, and he is not executing an EA trades and mostly because you will not test enough and after a series of consecutive looses you will say that is fail system

Once I was bored enough and wanted to filter some info from this forum.
I have started to add with high V to friends list and I have checked what they wrote and which thread. Some are speaking few some are very-very much some has commercial content. Who doesn't speak much or you will ask in private or you will not get enough info. Who speak / write a lot need to filter it. From 1k of they post there are 5-10 , which is valuable, around that rate

I can't tell you to take a box of sedatives and take 1 by 1 daily and follow Gatorinla + Attila posts, because you will be crazy. Do not trade on live account what they are saying. I just raised the leverage, when Gator was on same opinion as me and lost a lot! It isn't his fault, but mine: I made the trade. But until you are loosing month after month start watching they too, watch the high return trade explorer owners too. Watch those who has stable equity grow, not just for a few days in top and after that in 0.

There are Trading System forums: http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=71 based on what I wrote you can skip a lot of trading systems. Also you can combine.

And as eurotash told you can't read it from books, because it is not a degree. You have to exercise it.
In this forum, in some post is written you need like 10k hours of monitor watching ( charts not porno )

I am watching my trades too. Newest TE is the http://www.forexfactory.com/matheszabi#67 You can see :
Today I had a small whatever trade. I have closed it before news release:
http://www.forexfactory.com/mathesza...trade169035671

After news released and saw the result. I have opened a position. It is demo, so I am not expecting something ugly now from my broker and I didn't wanted to catch the bottom and top. I saw the price went dow than up 100 pip, than or will drop like 30-50 pip ( fibo correction) and go upward or wil stay there a bit an go high again or will drop like 200 pip , because of ECB conference and FOCM member speak. So from top somewhere, when I saw it is calm, I have started a short.
Now the TP wasn't hitted, is kinda not moving: it is kinda gambling: reduced the risk. If it would be Live than the other position SL would be moved to BE , to sleep well, even with small open position. now I will let to float at hight.

I am not the best, I don't want to be the best. I just want to make a little profit

Until Profit factor is infinity: http://www.forexfactory.com/matheszabi#67-report it means this TE has no data - it should be around 1-3. Large capital and high number of trades: they are under 2. Under 1 it means a loosing one.

Even with 1.43 can be almost a top trader: http://www.forexfactory.com/moneymogul#78-report

I think I gave enough Home Work and a high chance to find your edge! Good luck!

Today:
German Bank Holiday !!! Euro / usd is affected, a lot

Unemployment Claims
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
FOMC Member Powell Speaks

=> or you watch you trades ( baby sit) or you trade something else: like USD/JPY.

Ihave canceled all my Eur / usd orders.
If the price will so to a possible support / resistance zone ( zone and not a fixed price) than I will try to trade: short from 1.3750 long from 1.35, otherwise I will skip Eur/usd, hopefully. Anyhow if the price hit those levels I need to see a few consolidation candles or pullbacks before enter in position.

If I could know when is a pullback and when is a trend change I would be multi billionaire

This is Demo.

1. I have posted the trouble at Oanda's and Trade Explorer problem.
2. I can't show Ducascopy's Trade Explorer, because can't integrate on this site
3. For a while I got back to Demo to fix my leak and have 3x consecutive demo months.
4. why do you care if demo or live? - what are the benefits for YOU if is a live one? Is not the same as using a live account with 10 usd and hiding the amounts? -like you!

Read all bro.

I have read hundred of books. If you want them, i can send you all the PDF i have.

In fact, theory is always the theory. Theory is correct, but there are many factors in real market. So the real thing is understand those market behavior and apply the correct technique into it. Just my 2 cents.

That's why I don't use demo anymore as it can be quite deceiving. If one uses live account to trade spike compare to demo, demo will always have a better result.


Good thread. I learned something from that thread. Thanks for sharing.



How do you know for sure you found an edge?



You mean you backtest it for around 1,000 trades to determine whether you have a reliable edge?


How do you really define an edge? I mean, for example if risk:reward is 1:1 ratio with only 53% of accuracy, will you accept it as your edge?


I am searching for 1:1 ratio with > 60% accuracy. Do you think it is impossible?



This is a little too difficult for me to understand.


How do you know it is due to sentiment driven at that period? Losing account can also be due to traders' lack of skill, right? I mean, how did you analysed it was due to sentiment issue?


How do you know that it was due to lack of big players? I don't see any special long holidays in that period like Christmas or New Year kind of thing.


Why technical analysis + News doesn't works in that period compare to other period?



What did you mean in other way? Sentiment analysis? Do we even have this kind of analysis?


But I believe not many people insert trade explorer in their profile. In fact, today only I know FF got trade explorer after joining for 2 years .



Agree. That is experience. Just that I felt I can improve much faster if I join both experience & education instead of just experience.



I read it somewhere too. But they never say cannot have 2 monitors with one monitor watching charts and another monitor watching porno simultaneously .



Don't you feel that if you move SL to BE now (I mean the time when you post this), it would be too tight between current price? Won't it be better if you just close the trade and take that small amount of profit than moving your SL so close to the current price just to get BE?


At least you are better than me .



If price manage to reach 1.3750 and you short, where would be your TP target? 1.3500?


Again, thanks for taking the time to write such a long reply.



I also have hundred of e-books. Just that no time to read all. Therefore, I try to prioritize which book should I go for first.


In fact, 1 one the FF member here saw that I needed help and is super kind enough to let me access his material. Just that unfortunately my Internet access is damn slow. He open up his computer for me to download his material starting from yesterday until today whole day already.



Sound simple but not easy bro, not easy at all .


Anyway, thanks for dropping by.

Once I told I disagree to use live for testing, but is your option.

At least take Oanda's platform and trade 10 units in live server, if you need live. Maybe is better than demo in some point.

I am using Demo as Live, for me not a reason to waste time and play on demo with million account, until I am not expecting to fill my account with those. Like I told I needed to fix: crashed at psychology => 3 month demo ( soon I will have a small live account too again) If I wipe the live than 3 month demo again, if I can keep, than slowly I will re-fill the live. Not once to full power or above it.

"How do you know for sure you found an edge?" Extremely good question, because I have found it earlier and didn't realise it and kept searching the Holy Grail

You can toss the coin and you write the results: 1,0,1,1,1,10,0,0,0,0,1,0,1. For a know result set, data set, price movement set. You can define a system which is profitable. In my opinion here is a big trap for traders. He made his system he backtest for a period and is profitable. Than start using and in sooner or later it realise that is not exactly good as it should be. Sadly I don't know a definition for "what is the edge", but is something what you can see and trade and has a win probability more than 50%. Eg 50,00001% can be: If it was a week-eng gap down the price on next day ( Monday ) London session opening will go down. Not sure what percentage has this I don't trade on this, just an example. But if you backtest and looks promising to trade you can try and maybe with just a luck too you will have a 75% probability system for a period, as an idea. Ofc you can try the inverse too.

Very probably you want something with higher probability not just 50-51%. Even an 55% is good enough, many has 60% at winner trades, so around you should expect. Is hard to wait to trade, find anything above 80%. The price are moving, politicians changing, other factor changing, not sure if there is 2 exactly the same trade, with a small - bigger tolerance yes.

"I don't see any special long holidays in that period like Christmas or New Year kind of thing." Bad for you

"Why technical analysis + News doesn't works in that period compare to other period?" and other related:
Multi billionaires, CEO and whatever are going to Monte Carlo, Africa, exotic islands for 1 week, 1 month, 2 month to refill they power around Aug. employes are on Holidays too. Is lack of decision taking, new investments, lack of movement. If for other 10 months you know and expect the Euro move 50-70 pip Monday and 70-90 pip in a normal days, sometimes 130+, than on this mont will not really happen. Is moving some kind of hazardous tempo.

Bemac : http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=7387243 wrote in they post the work day of a pit trader - or I read somewhere else? - At 8 - 9 AM what they do than what they do , than launch at 12 or 14, than push hard and so. You can see those actions in charts too. When London and US overlaps than everybody trade.
ECN brokers: Dukascpoy, LMAX I have traded they display a second level price. You can see the price is 1.35000 ASK for 7 lots and 1.3495 120 lots and so on.
There you can see : WTF last month you have 100 lot now you have 3? What will happen if somebody will enter with 1000 lot?
When those sessions are overlapping at a retail broker is traded around 2000 lot / second. - I don't remember where I read that. Here in FF you can see: Liquidity 148% AVG right now ( just closed the London session).

"Losing account can also be due to traders' lack of skill, right?" yes, but when from January to July in top 20 are 10-15 traders and in august there are 5 of they and 15 new, what do you think?

"Don't you feel that if you move SL to BE now (I mean the time when you post this), it would be too tight between current price? Won't it be better if you just close the trade and take that small amount of profit than moving your SL so close to the current price just to get BE?"
That is where I break my rules. Actually doesn't matter for me neither in equity, also depends on trading style, trade plan.
Not me, but who do 10 trade or more daily and have one with free lottery ticket...or not...
If I trade daytime 1 lots once or twice and if I let a floating .01 or 0.2 lot is the same.
I don't give a big importance to close a 2-8 pip trade in profit if you can mode to BE and a TP 30 pip. For sure it is not a loosing one.

And I ave closed me too.

"If price manage to reach 1.3750 and you short, where would be your TP target? 1.3500?"
Hell no . To many times I saw just 2 or 5 pip needed for my TP , wasn't hit and after that I learnt the lesson about the "set and forget limits" systems. Just to many times I was looser to repeat it. Better I close with +20 pip than loose 100

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=408327 Here is a chart saved from an article, which isn't online anymore I think. That was the biggest milestone for me in becoming profitable. I needed to understand why they hell is moving and how, what to expect.

Until that I have followed the systems price is above MA and ... bull shit indicators indicate green head ufos (entry point) than enter a position until you see a red head women (exit point)
Well if you see the price is moving because at news there is a news release with major force and big difference than expected than jump in the wave (take small timeframe trend direction), if not to late.
If is to late already, than wait until they are full and start taking profits and jump in counter trend and than accept all blames in this forum as you trade with counter trend and you catch only 20 pip from 150 pip movement - who cares, if money are coming to my pocket?

With this technique you can bet with anybody: toss a coin and tell me short or long and I will trade profitable in long term ( 100 trades ). - just make sure to include a point in your statement: he will tell the direction but you choose the time for execution

This statement is a paradox unto itself, hence the robust enigma that the forex market is.....

you will learn what all this means as you go along further on this path and in the end a profitable

trade emerges knowing when and how do both which is letting the profits run and cutting losers fast

.... I recommend the Japanese candlesticks book as it sounds as if it relates to price action and if that's

the case you should go with that first..... I wish you good trading skills as you embark on this super adventure

that is the wonderful world of the beautiful forex market......

Check this: http://www.forexfactory.com/romarios#96

One of his trade explorer has 5000+ trades.

I don't know how is doing him, but he has a very nice linearly growing equity. Is like a triangle. It is stable and so on. This is how it looks like from far.
But as you can see it has a huge drawn down even after 1k trades.

Very similar situation had http://www.forexfactory.com/chenchina too. Daily 0.5% each day. Than something hapent. I am sorry for him/she.

When I see more than 3 open trades, than I know that is not for me. Some of them has even 100. I don't have time to control those trades and I don't believe in EA.
But you can learn a lot form they. Do manually what they do automatically, just improve a bit

Take a look at 4h chart:


You can see an uptrend.
Many books, traders, system will say follow the trend. I will say me too.If you have patience, and must have than watch for a pullback.

Only watching the chart I see: this is an imbalanced chart. There aren't the waves as how it need to be => sooner or later will be a Joker ( a -150 -200 pip movement from nowhere) Like this:



Today went up, because was no supply ( Bank holiday ) and tomorrow is Friday => hohoho It is a "classic Friday + Week-end trading" case and with FOCM extra!

I can't predict what exactly I will make, but usually 2-5% from this cases: 20-50 pip. There are bad cases which ends with draw down, but usually it is a profit: or in Friday or in Monday.



Pay extra attention to: before and after London close Friday, and Frankfurt, US open Monday
You can trap the chart for FOCM, but I don't like it. I will go for counter movement, of I am online.

10 pip banked:
http://www.forexfactory.com/mathesza...trade169124004

Maybe it will go for other 100pip, but who cares?

Wow, I didn't notice that.

I guess I still have a lot to learn. I didn't even know I need to know that.

Anyway, thanks for all the replies.

None ... 99.99% of the books have been written by those who did not make it in the markets. Study indicators, pick a few that you think might work and then study them in depth until you understand how price moves around them. Open a dummy account and start watching the charts.

One book - "Reminisces of a Stock Operator". It's a good entertaining read. Books about actual trading? You're wasting your time even bothering, they're all written by failures.

You should first read the best trading book ever............. Kama Sutra

Ah yes the Kama Sutra. Highly recommended as well, great for traders of all stages.

You won't believe how many postions I can now take after reading that book. Great read.

If there were a quote of the week I'd nominate this. Absolutely priceless.

I have not read any books on trading in many years.
And the ones that I did read I gave to the local library a long time ago.

read facebook first. Or some cookbook.

No need to read Kama Sutra. If you are a man, you naturally know how to take all the positions, no matter long or short, vertical or horizontal, flat or bulged, etc, etc.

Thanks for the recommendation and advise.