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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #10,101
  • Oct 4, 2013 4:56pm Oct 4, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting infinitus
Found this trade explorer from a trader of another thread: well, that happens, when one got overconfident sadly, he lost nearly 50% of account in a few days can someone spot the Elliott waves in it? Hope he will recover soon, slowly but steadily {image}
I know whose account it is. I believe that person can recover it soon. He should be smart enough to learn the lesson. He is still up 500% for the year.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #10,102
  • Oct 4, 2013 7:52pm Oct 4, 2013 7:52pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...ases-investing

Decision-Making And The 10 Most Common Psychological Biases Of Investing
  • #10,103
  • Oct 4, 2013 7:54pm Oct 4, 2013 7:54pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...ederal-reserve

Have We Reached Peak Federal Reserve?
  • #10,104
  • Oct 4, 2013 9:09pm Oct 4, 2013 9:09pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I know whose account it is. I believe that person can recover it soon. He should be smart enough to learn the lesson. He is still up 500% for the year.

ja ja und du brauchst den 1555 post per day, nur nonsense.

geh einfach
  • #10,105
  • Oct 4, 2013 9:10pm Oct 4, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I know whose account it is. I believe that person can recover it soon. He should be smart enough to learn the lesson. He is still up 500% for the year.
geh zu godim
  • #10,106
  • Oct 4, 2013 9:13pm Oct 4, 2013 9:13pm
Schick

I do not understand German, but I think I understood your last two posts.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #10,107
  • Oct 4, 2013 9:15pm Oct 4, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting milam
Schick I do not understand German, but I think I understood your last two posts.

ffleo is one of the biggest spamer here on ff

post only shit like godim

if he have a trading idia he can post, but he/she dont have any one
  • #10,108
  • Oct 4, 2013 9:15pm Oct 4, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} ffleo is one of the biggest spamer here on ff post only shit like godim if he have a trading idia he can post, but he/she dont have any one
on german Vollpfosten
  • #10,109
  • Oct 4, 2013 9:17pm Oct 4, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} on german Vollpfosten
if im wrong i dont post here nothing
  • #10,110
  • Oct 4, 2013 9:19pm Oct 4, 2013 9:19pm
dont get a answer from mercy
  • #10,111
  • Oct 4, 2013 9:21pm Oct 4, 2013 9:21pm
I am looking for an indicator that come very close to volume in forex to determine high/ low numbers in B/O of charts patterns.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #10,112
  • Oct 4, 2013 9:55pm Oct 4, 2013 9:55pm
do U guys ever sleep..I just came home from tennis and a food run..have to fend on my own on this one..my "squeeze" is "short" in the kitchen...anyway I would second milam's Q..volume...but since we do not a have central data exchange and the FX retail mtkt. is run like a wild west corral the only thing left is ...http://www.cmegroup.com/ I personally don't use volume bcs it is not readely available on the wild west exchange ..also keep in mind volume is a lagging entity ...but I still would like to look at good data in a convenient manner ... this http://www.cmeagroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=6EZ3&title=December_2013_EUR_USD&type=v is prbly as good as it gets....
hope this helps...tp
  • #10,113
  • Oct 4, 2013 10:31pm Oct 4, 2013 10:31pm
Quoting TraderPablo
do U guys ever sleep..I just came home from tennis and a food run..have to fend on my own on this one..my "squeeze" is "short" in the kitchen...anyway I would second milam's Q..volume...but since we do not a have central data exchange and the FX retail mtkt. is run like a wild west corral the only thing left is ...http://www.cmegroup.com/ I personally don't use volume bcs it is not readely available on the wild west exchange ..also keep in mind volume is a lagging entity ...but I still would like to look at good data in a convenient...
Paolo,
Thank you, yes it is a wild west, I guess I just have to use PA, maybe macd indicator can help, when the histogram slips from negative to positive for a long B/O, need to have a look.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #10,114
  • Oct 4, 2013 10:51pm Oct 4, 2013 10:51pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Paolo, Thank you, yes it is a wild west, I guess I just have to use PA, maybe macd indicator can help, when the histogram slips from negative to positive for a long B/O, need to have a look.
i use stoch/rsi if at extremes 1h 4h I/D ...d/w/m as guidelines works pretty well with PA and experience....sometimes i pull the trigger to early but i like to sell/buy rallies and dips ...having said that i take sometimes 5 to 15 ticks on I/D trades if i am on the desk...and hang in there for longer term trades ( have the tendency to take profits to early) to avoid such i do 1/2 or 1/3 then the rest on the way as i see appropriate...i really strive to sell/buy at the high/bottom..i/d or other time frames...(no short of disappointments though) but I manage the outcome reasonably well..i make abt 1% a week and have hardly loosing periods this way...batting for home-runs e troppo caro..but if i get one i take it....
  • #10,115
  • Edited 12:31am Oct 5, 2013 12:09am | Edited 12:31am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} i use stoch/rsi if at extremes 1h 4h I/D ...d/w/m as guidelines works pretty well with PA and experience....sometimes i pull the trigger to early but i like to sell/buy rallies and dips ...having said that i take sometimes 5 to 15 ticks on I/D trades if i am on the desk...and hang in there for longer term trades ( have the tendency to take profits to early) to avoid such i do 1/2 or 1/3 then the rest on the way as i see appropriate...i really strive to sell/buy at the high/bottom..i/d or other time frames...(no short of disappointments though)...
Sounds like a great deal to me.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #10,116
  • Oct 5, 2013 12:50am Oct 5, 2013 12:50am
Quoting milam
{quote} Paolo, Thank you, yes it is a wild west, I guess I just have to use PA, maybe macd indicator can help, when the histogram slips from negative to positive for a long B/O, need to have a look.
I second Pablo on the RSI/MACD combo.

In the absence of centralized volume in forex, we have to use resources such as PA(!), CoT and the fundamentals->sentment (with sentiment being the determinant) to forecast direction and duration. RSI is a core tool for me, and MACD is a great companion. The divergence and reverse divergence these indicators reveal at different TFs is invaluable and gives a lot more info than volume could. Volume would be useful, but we just don't have it.

tip: for intraday analysis, change MACD parameters to a faster setting: 9 12 5 (instead of the default 12 26 9) - but display two MACD indicators simultaneously - one fast, one slow.

edit: this may seem crazy, but it's great learning practice: open a 10 second TF chart of your favourite instrument, put one fast and one slow MACD on there as well as RSI set to 5 periods. Look for divergence and especially reverse divergence in RSI and MACD. Watch and learn!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #10,117
  • Oct 5, 2013 4:00am Oct 5, 2013 4:00am
Quoting milam
I am looking for an indicator that come very close to volume in forex to determine high/ low numbers in B/O of charts patterns.

Hi Milam, Pablo and Venzen,


interesting discusion.

Here my 2 cts.


There has been a study conducted regarding the usefulness of tick volume in Forex trading. The result was, that you can use tick volume without problem, when the liquidity pool your broker uses, is deep enough. In this case tick-volume is representative for true volume. So conclusion is: Tick-volume of Bucket-shops should be avoided, whereas Tick-volume of ECN brokers with deep liquidity pools can be used.

I published this study 2 years or so ago here in FF, but I can not find it any more. I can not find it even on my hard-disk. Shit...... Will try to get it again over weekend.


I would recommend to use the BetterVolume indicator, which, out of my side, does an extremely good job in showing stopping volume.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 BetterVolume 1.4.mq4   5 KB | 250 downloads
File Type: pdf Better_Volume_Indicator.pdf   322 KB | 287 downloads
  • #10,118
  • Oct 5, 2013 4:19am Oct 5, 2013 4:19am
Quoting venzen
{quote} I second Pablo on the RSI/MACD combo. In the absence of centralized volume in forex, we have to use resources such as PA(!), CoT and the fundamentals->sentment (with sentiment being the determinant) to forecast direction and duration. RSI is a core tool for me, and MACD is a great companion. The divergence and reverse divergence these indicators reveal at different TFs is invaluable and gives a lot more info than volume could. Volume would be useful, but we just don't have it. tip: for intraday analysis, change MACD parameters to a faster...

Hi Venzen,

see my prior post regarding tick-volume.

COT data are 3-4 days old, when we get them. They are useful for determining general direction, but in day trading they are not much of value.

For position traders they may be of great use. I would recommend the books from Larry Williams, especially: Williams Larry - Trade Stocks and Commodities With the Insiders

PA is a very good tool, no question......


FA: that is very tricky to answer. In Forex, there are only few fundamental triggers, that are worth to observe. Central bank decisions, yield curves are strong indicators. But as for the rest of the fundamental data and their analysis, well you know I am Elliottican, it is not worth to spent much time on it. Social mood does rarely care about fundamental aspects. Price goes, most of the time, where social mood is headed.


Regarding the use of Momentum Indicators:

very great tools, especially when used on MTF-analysis. Some traders think, that using different momentum indicators leads to information overkill. But I think this is only a question of training.

For spotting divergences one of the best is the Awesome oscillator (or also know as Elliott wave Oscillator), which is a MACD with 34,5 setting.

Forexcube showed me to use the CCI 14, which is a very sharp tool especially for scalping purpose.



Found it interesting, that you mentioned the use of the 10sec. chart for spotting divergences. I do that often, mostly with the 20 sec chart, and it works wonders when scalping for 5-10 pips, or even for triggering a longer term entry.


  • #10,119
  • Oct 5, 2013 4:27am Oct 5, 2013 4:27am
Quoting TraderPablo
do U guys ever sleep..I just came home from tennis and a food run..have to fend on my own on this one..my "squeeze" is "short" in the kitchen...anyway I would second milam's Q..volume...but since we do not a have central data exchange and the FX retail mtkt. is run like a wild west corral the only thing left is ...http://www.cmegroup.com/ I personally don't use volume bcs it is not readely available on the wild west exchange ..also keep in mind volume is a lagging entity ...but I still would like to look at good data in a convenient...

Many thanks for the links provided - very interesting


Regarding the question, if one should use Futures market data as leading indicator, Juan Cabrera , Tao Wang and Jian Yang gave us very good answers with their study-work:


Do Futures Lead Price Discovery in Electronic Foreign Exchange Markets?


Here is (part of) the conclusion:


Given much recent evidence of the superiority of electronic trading, it is interesting to
ask the question: among these markets trading electronically, which one leads the price
discovery process?

This paper attempts to answer this question on the foreign exchange
market.

Using intra-day (tick by tick) data, this paper investigates the contribution to the price
discovery on the Japanese Yen and the Euro exchange rates of three electronically traded
foreign exchange markets: the CME electronically-traded GLOBEX regular futures,
electronically-traded small-denomination futures (E-Minis), and the inter-dealer spot market.

The results show that transaction prices in the inter-dealer spot foreign exchange market are
more informative than the prices in both the regular futures and the E-mini futures markets
and thus the spot foreign exchange market leads the price discovery process for both
exchange rates during the sample period
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Do Futures Lead Price Discovery in Electronic Foreign Exchange Markets.pdf   149 KB | 275 downloads
  • #10,120
  • Edited 5:08am Oct 5, 2013 4:41am | Edited 5:08am
Some recommended books regarding volume:


http://www.cmegroup.com/education/in...e/handbook.pdf



search for:

Dynamic_Trading_Indicators_-_Winning_with_Value_Charts_and_Price_Action_Profile_-_Stendahl,_David_&_Helweg,_Mark
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Forex Trading Volume Analysis.pdf   126 KB | 347 downloads
File Type: pdf Intraday Patterns in FX returns and orderflow.pdf   580 KB | 524 downloads
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